What's poppin, oh man, what is up? Everybody welcome to trace trades where you have technical analysis and different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy holders sell opinions on these giving stocks. I, like your profits by saying that i'm not a financial advisor and they're experts, so it's gon na, say the green salt. Let's get into the video. So today, my friends, my family, my fellow gorilla gang we're gon na, be looking at ticker symbol m-a-r-a.

This is mara, this is a pretty fascinating stock and, with cryptocurrency going on an absolute bull run, there's a way to actually take advantage of that without exposing yourself to bitcoin ethereum dogecoin itself. Right, if you want to play just purely stocks, you don't have a coinbase uh. You know app whatever a brokerage account set up, there's different ways that you can play that and play that exposure, and i think that mara is an opportunity. So with that being said, we're going to go over tomorrow, i want to go over the technical analysis of the stock, the basic fundamentals of the company, a couple different news catalysts.

I want to look at the options chain on this. I want to look at the short interest and the institutional investors, so we're gon na work through all those different pieces of mara stock. Give you the reason why i think this is a pretty decent play and, personally what i would do if i was going to play mars stock with with actual physical shares or, if you're, going to play options. So with that being said, let's just get right into the video, so we're gon na actually start off with what the company is, what they do.

So i've got their website pulled up here and it's it's a pretty fascinating company. So, like i said, if you want to expose yourself to bitcoin ethereum, you know cryptocurrency in general, these guys mine bitcoin and it's a pretty simple process on how it works and they're they're they're a pretty fascinating company because of how fast they can actually mine, bitcoin And the explosive growth that they've really seen so how it works, essentially, is these guys mine blocks, so bitcoin transactions are pulled together in a block they solve a block. So once a block is four miners compete to solve a puzzle? The puzzle is difficult to solve. Yet simple to verify, think like sudoku, then you verify the block and they get rewarded.

So once a miner solves a puzzle for a block, the transactions in that block are verified by the network. The new block of verified transactions is attached to a chain of prior blocks, hence blockchain right now for solving the puzzle. A minor is rewarded with bitcoin. The current block reward is 6.25.

Bitcoin per block blocks are solved on average every 10 minutes. So every 10 minutes right now these guys are getting 6.25 bitcoins, which is an absolute stupid amount of money. That's a lot of freaking capital and uh, with bitcoin increasing in price month over month over month year over year over year, they're just going to continue to make more and more money with this sort of uh business right. And if you look at their overall financial statements, this company is actually doing very decently.

Well, i mean, let's just look at their quarterly q, one two three four, their overall growth. How have they been doing right? They've grown 156 percent to from q1 to q4 of 2019 592 000 of total revenue, and then this quarter they were down a little bit: 286 thousand 835, 000 in q3 and 2.64 million in q4 of 2020, which is a substantial amount of money. I mean that's really really solid. The downside right now tomorrow is that they're not currently a profitable company.

Their cost of revenue is higher than the amount of total revenue they're actually making. But this is a company where you're looking at the opportunity for setting themselves up for down the road right as they continue to grow, as they continue to advance technology as they continue to mind. More bitcoin bitcoin gets more expensive they're going to make more total revenue which is going to bring down that cost of revenue. So with that being said, you know they're they're, doing well they're, i think in early stages of where they can be down the road, but there's also some good news catalyst to talk about here as well.

So with that being said, i want to talk about uh. What we should know - and that is regarding earnings and the options chain right, so they do have earnings coming up here relatively soon. Mark closed at 33 55 in the latest trading session marketing uh a negative one point: one: eight percent move from the prior day. This move, like the s p 500's daily gain at point: zero.

Seven percent investors will be hoping for strength for mar as it approaches its next earnings release. The company is expected to report earnings per share of point zero, two with or two cents up 116 from the prior year quarter. Meanwhile, the zax consensus estimate for revenue is projected projecting net sales of 11.13 million up 1800 from the year ago period and 11.13 million in total revenue is going to be a significant bump from q4 of 2020., and if people don't go absolutely eight bananas. For this thing, i'm gon na be really surprised, really really really stupid.

Surprise, because that is 400 percent higher than q4, and that's substantial, that's really substantial. So the next thing i want to talk about uh the date for this right. We probably want to know when this is um. Let's just find this really quick.

Give me one sec all right, so i found that actually the pde ratio. I think this is pretty interesting as well, so the valuation is also important, so investors should note that mara has a forward p e ratio of 16.17 right now. This represents a discount compared to its industry's average forward p e of 30.57. So i actually think that uh mara is a little bit undervalued right now.

I think this is getting swapped. It's getting beat down pretty bad with uh, with all these kind of smaller cap companies getting beat down over the last couple months. I think this is a pretty good opportunity and i think, with earnings coming up, it is going to have a pretty nice little push. So i want to find the earnings one more give me one more sec, all right.

So here you go, may 13th. 2021 is when you're expecting earnings to come out and it is expected to be two cents earnings per share right. So that's that's pretty solid, it's good growth and that's something that you can look forward to next thing i want to talk about is the marathon options. Now the options chain has been actually going up significantly.

There are some really big uh block orders. Essentially so, let's just talk about this for those who want exposure to the cryptocurrency space using the regular broker, buying shares or options of bitcoin miners such as mara, is an option right, uh and there's some pretty big transactions that have taken place on 1004 am on. May uh this would have been, i think, yesterday or two days ago you saw the 32 strike price for may 28th, had a substantial amount of options, it was 444 and they cost 510 per contract, which is 226 thousand dollars. You can usually think of this as institutions or whales right, that's not typically, a retail investor making that big of a trade, because that's an extreme amount of exposure and risk.

If that's the majority of your portfolio right, you see a lot of those 32 strikes on. May 28th a lot of 40 strikes is september 17th, and a lot of the 34 strikes in may 14th right i'll. Tell you what i think about the options chain. What was a pretty safe way to play this? If you want to get into this, but uh? Nonetheless, i thought this was important to talk about so next i want to look at the overall uh institutional ownership on mara and i consider anything over 10 to be decently.

Significant right and you've got 12.54 uh total ownership in the company, with 12 million 395. 393. 000 total shares man. I can tell it's the morning.

I haven't woken up, yet this is terrible, but the shooter's outstanding is about 98 million they're free float. I think it's going to be lower, but nonetheless the shares outstanding is what is included for everybody right. It's the institutional owners, it's the insiders and the retail investors. They all make up that shares outstanding, which comes out to about 12.54 of the shares outstanding.

You've got your largest owner being uh. What looks to be crocodile douglas b, with five million total shares, so there's a pretty decent amount of institutional ownership here right. This is important because big money is smart money. People don't put money into small cap stocks right.

You might not think that mars, a small cap at 30 but uh there's a lot safer companies out there that are speculative play like mara right, it's very volatile. It's had some ups. It's had some downs so for them to be holding through. All of that right - that's a good sign to me, so i want to look at ortex next and just look at the overall short interest data, and this is actually going up significantly.

Yesterday. It was up eight percent, seven or eight percent. I remember looking at this uh, but it's it's sitting pretty freaking decently high. I mean you've got six point, eight one percent short interest of free flow and that has gone up significantly right.

That's a lot of free float, uh! That's a big change. Compared to a week ago, 33 percent change, so i think, there's actually potential for a squeeze leading into earnings, not a big one right, a small one, but nonetheless it's it's possible cost of borrow's pretty low. So there's not a lot of pressure on short positions. Utilization is not maxed out, so there's definitely room for them to continue to lend out shares and to continue to short the stock as it gets closer and closer to that earnings date.

But nonetheless it's starting to go up right. That's something that you might want to pay attention to if you do have ortex yourself, and this leads us into the last little piece that i want to talk about, which is the overall technical analysis setup right. So i use basically three different indicators. I use volume and then i use just basic trends, so i use the 15 day moving average the 200 exponential moving average, the rsi, which is the relative strength index, and then i just use uh volume and trend right and that's that is that is it.

I keep it very simple: the 15ma is a microscopic uh price, action-based valuation trendline 15-day moving average right. It gives you 15 days of price action, microscopic short-term, lagging trend line 200 ema. The exponential moving average is a macroscopic price, action-based valuation trend line over a 200-day moving period, which gives you that that smooth out long-term price action lagging trend line right, rsi, relative strength index, anything over 70s or bot. Anything under 30 is oversold.

This gives you an idea of when is a good time to buy and was a good time to sell for swing trade opportunities right and then i just want to look at the overall volume in the trend. So what do we have rocking right now? Right? If you look at this in a large scale, time frame what you've got cooking up right now, is this this upward moving channel and it's it's followed, i wouldn't quite say the same trend over in the past, so this is kind of some uncharted territory, but it Does have three touch points, which is exactly what i look for right. So you've got an ascending level of support, any level of resistance and three touch points to validate each of these, and this just created an upward moving channel, and you can see that in the past year so far right every time that it has touched this point. It has gotten a decent bounce, not every time.

Does it bounce up to this level of resistance. Yet, however, i think that it's very likely over the next couple of days, if not into the next week, so that's something that you can definitely watch for now. What would i watch for if you were going to play this right? So if you wanted to pick up actual physical stock, this is entirely up to you guys right, you do what you want to do, but i like it where it's at right now. I think this is a pretty decent, pretty decent buying opportunity unless it breaks this ascending level of support.

If it does, you've got uh the next level of support hanging, one two, three, four: five, a quintuple bottom at about 29.25. So if you get a break underneath 34.3 cents, or so i would say first, you want to see if it's gon na hold over this level of support at about 32.39. If it breaks that, i would maybe cut your losses and take a re-established position at 29.25. Right, but i really do think that the earnings report next week is going to be good.

I think it's going to drive price action. I would not be surprised to see it break over 40 uh sometime next week. That's something that i'm watching for personally and if you want to play options, what do i think is the safest way to play that right. I personally like june 18th.

I think that june 18th calls is going to be the safest way to play this, and if you want to play conservatively, there's two different ways that you can go about this right conservative call option. You can pick up something. That's already in the money. You can pick up.

Some 33 strikes just know that it's gon na cost. You 570 a contract, so it's expensive right, you're, paying it forward for that extra security. You can think about options in terms of uh. You you pay more for extra security.

You pay less! For less security right, so if you want to play more risky, this is what i oh, these are puts. What am i doing so? It's even more expensive 620 for the 33 strike right. So if you want to play more risky, less expensive, you can pick up these 40 strikes or the 38s, and i think it's pretty realistically possible to get it in the money on the 38 or 40 strike. If you want to play it a little less risky, uh 35 right, so it just depends on how much you're willing to pay and how much risk you're willing to assume just know that if you do play options, there's risk associated if you're wrong, you can lose All of your premium right, there's, there's nothing guaranteed about options in the stock market right.

This is just what i would personally do, knowing the information that we looked at right. We saw that there's a huge sweep in options trading coming up here. Expecting i, i would anticipate for the earnings report uh and there's pretty high open interest here on the 30, the 40 strike and the 35 dollar strike. What i like to do is drop one or two levels below wherever the highest open interest is right, so i would say either 38 or 34..

If you wanted to pick up this 35 dollar strike i'll, maybe go 34.. If i want to pick up this 40 strike i'll, maybe go 38 right, it's entirely up to you. This is just what i would do and i think there's pretty good opportunities here. So when is the right time to take profits right? So if you're gon na play earnings report an earnings report only just a swing trade, this i would watch to see if it gets a clean break over this ascending level of resistance.

So, let's just say that, hypothetically today it was to test out this level of resistance and bounce off of it. I don't think it's going to right, but just hypothetically speaking uh, that would be about 41 bucks if it hits 31 or 41 bucks and it bounces off. That's your time to take profits right. You can rinse and repeat over and over and over if it gets a clean break and you can test 46 50 bucks, 55, 60 right and continue to hold.

This is when you see price rejection off a significant level of resistance. So that's what i would personally watch for watchful to continue trading in this ascending level of support and resistance, this upward moving channel, and if it does, you could be looking at a pretty nice little move, so that's kind of what i've got for tomorrow. I think it's a pretty interesting stock for the short term. I think there's a lot of money that can be made here in the short term, just based on earning support based on that sweep options trading that that's kind of popping up here, based on the positive numbers that we're expecting this ascending channel right, we're sitting pretty Decent on mars, so that's what i've got for the video today guys if you enjoyed it, blah blah blah drop a like and share subscribe.

You know the whole spiel uh! That's what i've got so thanks for watching my friends, my family, my fellow gorilla gang, much love catching the next one and peace.