Guys i got ta start off by saying: i'm actually really really happy about this. I tweeted about this uh on uh either. I think it was saturday yesterday and i said i was gon na - make a video on it. Today is a long day.

Today's gon na be a long day, but i am genuinely excited about what i have to uh discuss here and i think you should be too uh and we're gon na go over that. And that is an iv rebalance on amc. And i'm going to show you exactly what i'm talking about, but before we get started, welcome back to trades trades where we could talk classes, don't skip classic. Remember by saying i'm not a firefighter advisor expert.

So tell me to say the grain of salt. Let's get into the video today, as per usual, we got an agenda of things to discuss. First and foremost, it's important to state that we are going to be having uh a short week. It's gon na be a short week.

We do have good friday on friday. Uh and as the uh, the good, the good friday people we are, we must take off that friday, so the market will be closed. On that day, you can expect a short week. Historically speaking, on short weeks, we have lower volume, uh, sometimes i'd, say they're more favorite to be read than they are green uh.

But we will discuss that first and foremost, we're gon na start off with amc, and i've got three sort of things that i'd like to discuss today. Iv rebalance this is gon na, be huge. I'm not gon na talk about it until we get started, but you have a lot to look forward to. I think this is actually a genuinely good bullish thing for the short term uh.

That falls in line very, very well with the current charting setup, as well as the falling wedge that we are currently uh watching play out right now. I think you are very likely to see this falling wedge come to fruition. Uh i made a video on friday stating that we are currently in a reversal pattern, and that does still happen to be the case and it's actually reaffirmed by something really cool, which is uh. The the uh falling wedge and iv reversal that we are.

We are currently in so i'm gon na discuss that that'll fall into the charting and the falling wedge i'll. Give the bearish and bullet scenario the spy i'd like to discuss the spy as as we all know, as we've talked about before uh. What what the spies is a distraction baby but anyways now the spy uh tracking, the broad market top 500 companies in the u.s stock market uh is gon na be closed friday. Obviously, this part of the short week we're gon na discuss that april 12th.

You have cpi data which can be thought of as inflation data uh, and this is actually gon na be pretty pivotal. I think this week is gon na be pivotal in terms of the direction that the market goes, and i think it's going to either debunk. My theory of uh, a small mid cap squeeze rally uh so to speak. We've seen a nice follow-through so far, however, the market has kind of been pooping itself for the last last sort of week and i'm going to go over that sort of what to be watching for what i think is going to be good and what i think Is going to be bad uh historically, these short weeks have been poor, just kind of mentioned that before we'll talk about that more, then i'm going to try it out in terms of what you should be uh, maybe paying attention to uh we're gon na review.

The play of the day from last week, which was tesla uh, we gave it if this then that scenario for tesla and for full disclosure. I was more keen on sort of a bullish rally and i was wrong in that. I i'm glad that we prepared for both scenarios. I uh you know the tesla was sort of dragged down by a bearish spy.

You can't do much about that. You know that kind of is what it is and that's why we prefer prepare for both. If this then call, if that then put and it worked out pretty well, it's a clean move to the downside, then i'm going over the play of the day for tomorrow, uh, which i have pulled up currently, and i believe that to be apple, so we are Going to talk about all these things, let's just get right into the meat potatoes. Let's start off with uh these, oh as well as bb igg, i'm gon na give you guys an update on bbig uh alongside that that'll be right after i talk about amc, uh charting, specifically still in this sort of sideways channel training zone uh trying to pick Which direction it wants to go amc iv rebalance.

This is massive holy, i'm actually so unbelievably juiced to be able to talk about this, because when i, when i talked about my theory, you know this is the exact thing that you you really do not want to see, and this is what sort of led me To believe that, you may see some short-term downside before you get uh any form of a reversal and it is actually flipped now. What do i mean by this if you're looking at a volatility curve, so to speak, right uh, which is how much calls put calls cost compared to a put calls have been more expensive than puts forever? I mean anytime, the calls have not been more expensive than puts they've either been equal to or less than puts. You have seen massive rallies to the upside in terms of how this compares to the rest of the stock market. I think that amc, gamestop and a few other meme names whatever are anomalies.

This isn't something you typically see happen where there is just a permanent uh higher cost for calls than puts, or for puts than calls whatever we can talk about. Whatever you want right now, they are about equal in cost. Calls are just slightly leaning, calls slightly cost more than puts, and this is a great uh sort of indicator to what i think is going to be coming, but that is another decent sized rip. I know that might sound wild to say uh, but i do believe that to be the case, i'm gon na tell you why.

Let's check this out, if you look at the call versus put premium cost right now to go along, we have to look at the ask side. Obviously uh you can see that currently an 18 and a half dollar strike is just as far away from the closing cost, as the 18 strike of a put a penny difference right. What you're going to notice is that it put right now costs a dollar and two. You multiply that by 100 you're gon na get 102 bucks calls are 105., that is a drastically narrowed down cost difference.

This could be, for a multitude of reasons could be because less people are hitting calls it could be because more people have been hitting puts uh it could be. It could be that the volatility has slowed down, and just because of that you know you just have a lack of cost, but i don't find that to be really the case, because volatility is obviously still here. We were down seven and a half percent on the last trading day uh and if you were to compare the last week or so very red week, i mean it was an extremely red week. You were, you were down uh 21.72 percent, giving back a lot of, but not all of the gains that we saw over the previous three solid uh green weeks.

With that being said, if it's not volatility, what is it right? It's it's demanded one way or the other either a less people have been playing calls or b more people were playing puts and because of that, what you notice is that calls cost less than they did a week ago. This is so so so good. So good. Believe me when i say this, this is good to see, because this is going to trigger another decent sized move.

I don't know if it's going to be next week. Historically speaking my mind, my gut is telling me that short weeks typically are two things: low volume. You typically see less volume on a uh a short week and they're typically red. They really are across the spy.

You typically have red price action uh when there's a shorter week, and you throw on top of that that there's cpi data i expect tomorrow, to be an overall, pretty low volume day across the market, because people are going to be waiting for that april 12. Cpi data to come out uh tomorrow, the 11th, which means it comes out tuesday, uh. I think that you're not gon na see much volume until that comes out comes out at 8 30 a.m. Uh you'll probably see a gut punch reaction and then the market's gon na decide where it wants to go from there.

That's why i say it's a pivotal week we'll get into that more so later, but macro wise next one, two three four weeks. What do i think this means if this iv rebalance so to speak, where calls cost about equal to puts which is drastically different than it was literally a week ago i mean you look back on this a week ago. It was monstrous, i mean the difference between the costs on calls and puts, was nasty, and that's why i think market makers were collecting premium. What these guys were doing, selling calls they sold calls collected premiums on the down rip right, that's what they do, that's what they do less people did.

This less people bought calls that market makers were selling to rebalance iv. I mean that's all that there is either a less people are playing calls or b more people are playing, puts it's one of those two things both of these can rebounce the iv, and because of this i i genuinely think you're gon na see an uprip every Time we've had a massive uprip. Let me pull up mark and chameleon quick. I'm gon na show you exactly what i'm talking about uh you're, going to notice one market chameleon.

Apparently i can't talk and type. At the same time, i'm going to type in amc, uh iv check this out. We come over here. We check this chart uh what you're going to notice.

If you look at this is every time we have major moves, it's because iv drastically dropped compared to as high as it's been. Do. I think you're gon na see a move like uh like the price right here. Maybe not, but i think it's gon na set.

You up uh drastically, and i don't think that this change has quite been priced in uh as of late, and this is historical volatility also does not track the difference in cost between calls and puts that's sort of something you have to watch on your own end And you can go back and uh in fact check me in my video as well uh as i do talk about it and show it sort of in the video part, two, the big squeeze theory. You can see uh where i talk about these things and you can also go back and look at if you're gon na watch any of my videos watch this one talk about it as well. It's a pretty pretty fascinating thing to see. Uh, the flip on two day difference right, it's pretty wild.

So with that being said, why does this matter? Why do i think that you're you're in a situation where you're gon na see a nice recovery and a nice rally right now, you're in what i would consider to be a nice falling wedge? This is a pretty picture, perfect, falling wedge uh. You have a decent level of resistance descending level of support. You can consider this to be the false breakout area. Thirty four dollars be sort of the the large scale rejection off of a potentially huge, huge, huge breakout right off of this falling wedge breakout, which, if it lines up beautifully with the iv, rebalance that we have seen the bullish case scenario.

Uh would bring you a nice size move. I think the next spot that you are genuinely going to be watching for is about 22 bucks. I think 22, which is a four dollar move, you'd, be up by a good chunk. I mean that's a large chunk to the upside 22.

Bucks is gon na be pretty key level. This is a previous flat top area uh. I think it lines up with some decent fibs. I keep the fibs off of my uh, my charting, because it gets kind of messy uh, it's hard for some people to keep track of, and that's okay, we'll keep it very simple.

22 bucks would be that next psychological level to be keeping an eye on uh and just historically speaking, every time that this has happened every time that calls have been equal to in cost or less than cost uh to puts you typically have market makers stop trying To sell calls to collect premium instead they're going to go the other direction to sell, puts, which is inherently bullish, which is going to bring price action up pretty interesting. I i'm pretty jacked about it. That's the bold case scenario bear case scenario and what i think is possible. This is considering the short week.

This is considering cpi data. Everything is going to get override, uh overridden by a bad cpi. If the market takes a gut punch reaction to that or if the market is weak based on the short week and based on the low volume uh, i think you would see this happen. I think you would see a false break down to the downside beneath this falling wedge nine times out of ten a falling wedge is a bullish reversal signal uh, but if this is bearish, what i think you're going to witness happen is the same thing that happened With the spy before it broke, uh down from its rising wedge, what happened when the spy broke down from his rising wedge? It actually broke to the upside right.

I mentioned this in a video i said hey. I would expect some form of a reversal in spy, shorts and reversal. I think that's very likely going to happen. It's in a rising wedge right now it broke.

It's got to break the rising edge when it does uh. It's typically to the downside. It had a false breakout above it and then it broke down beneath it. I think that is the exact opposite of what would happen with amc in this situation.

If uh the bearish situation comes to fruition, where would it try to bounce? I think that this level right here is very fascinating about uh what appears to be 1824, so it's just a hair beneath that 1840 gap fill spot. That i mentioned in my previous update video uh. I think this is pretty keen and i'm more inclined to believe that it holds it, and this is kind of where it's trading right now. So i guess we got to kind of check the the next level uh it'd be about 1778 or so a break beneath that.

The absolute worst case is that you could see 1662 or so i do think 1662 up to 17 buck flat uh is, is the absolute worst case for the bearish scenario, and it is possible considering that the spy uh you know, cpi data is coming out and All that sort of jazz so keep your eye on that, but in the grand term the grand scale right. You look at this on a one to four week perspective the current balance of call to put cost bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, ape-ish, it's good. This is a good good thing and i would not be telling you that, obviously you guys know me, you know you know, you know the way that i kind of approach things i i wouldn't be telling you that if i didn't believe it, this is good. I think the next one, four weeks, you're gon na see a nice move, genuinely brings me to bbig bbig right now.

Uh is in a spot where i am going to be uh watching very closely the sideways trading channel that we are currently in right now. I've mentioned this: nothing has changed in the last two and a half three weeks. Nothing has changed uh. It has just been channel trading back and forth between these green boxes.

Right here, not good uh, not good for for sort of huge volatile moves. I should say in the grand scheme of things: let's just try to decide which direction it wants to go right now, favoring the downside. However, there is good news for bulls: uh bbig has filled this gap and if it breaks above this descending level of resistance, it can very quickly regain momentum to come back up to the top of this green box, which is uh supply previously was uh the main, But now is acting as supply again. It could very quickly come back up to this green red box and try to decide which way it wants to go.

This is what i'm watching, i think, a breakdown beneath this green box, where the gap bill ended, uh, you're. Looking at a a chunk of downside to about 237, you really want to hold that gap bill spot and it looks like it will uh, but you do need that follow-through if it rejects you're gon na know pretty much square way in the morning uh if it Rejects off this downside level, connect the dots one, two three, four: five: rejection off that it's gon na retest, that gap fill and that's downside and that's just the absolute honest-to-god truth uh coming off of where it's currently trading. Looking at this on a volume perspective, you look at this on the daily uh sort of a downtrend in terms of volume, there's less overall volatility coming into this uh you're, looking for sort of that uh that shift back up, but a good sign for the long-term Bulls of uh of bpig is that similar to amc? If you look at the obv of this right, you look at this on a daily perspective. Uh people are accumulating this.

This is being very, very, very heavily accumulated and i think that should be stated. Uh really really stated: this has got some nasty nasty wild accumulation happening despite this huge uprip, literally nobody's selling. I mean this is this is a picture-perfect example of retail institutions, banks. I don't know who these people are uh waiting on shares sitting on shares for something really big to happen, so keep that in your mind, all right uh, if you're a long, long long term bull in this, i think that the chart looks pretty nice.

This obv is all that i'll really be paying attention to, and i'd be trying to accumulate chairs on dips uh. If you're in this for a swing, you know uh watch these boxes blow this green box below the gap bill at two and come back to the hourly below uh 260 downside. I think that's really what you should be watching for break of. That upside brings me to the spy short week.

Short weeks are typically red. Typically, don't see good things out of uh short weeks to be completely uh blunt and alongside cpi data. That leads you to sort of expect a red week more than anything overall right uh. However, i do want to discuss cpi, because this is what i'm watching for that, i think, would actually change uh the game a little bit.

There's there's two situations in which i think cpi data is going to be bearish for the market. I think if, if cpi data, which is inflationary data uh comes out and we are stagnant, stagnant or worse, you're gon na get a gut punch reaction, you're gon na see a huge volatile spike from the spy to the downside, uh, and this is bearish in nature. Why do i say stagnant as well? Stagnant is not uh. Progress.

Stagnant is slow, it's slower right, it's slower overall rate of decay and inflation uh. However, i don't think the market's going to react to it. That way, there's been a lot of hawkish statements from the fed, and i think if i was the fed you know i would be making decisions a lot different. First stop.

I think i don't understand squidward. Why? Why you? For years straight, you were saying: inflation is transitory when all of a sudden, it's it's something that we got ta be super hawkish on makes no sense, don't get it but anyways. If i was the fed with the stance that i have right now and i was as hawkish as they were and i saw stagnant inflation data, what i'm thinking these guys are going to do is be aggressive and i think the market's going to react. The exact same way, i think they would look at stagnant or, worse inflation down, they're going to say, there's a 50 basis.

Point hike coming uh and they're gon na react to the downside, they're gon na prepare for the worst case scenario. I think the best case scenario bullish, which is obviously less likely if you just do basic math and statistics uh. These are two-thirds and the other one's one-third. Whatever uh is an improvement.

If inflation actually goes down uh, i think that the market will really, i think, you'd see a good. I think it's a good move off of that sort of rally. Uh we're not quite in peak fear we're not really in peak euphoria. This is still that kind of in between land, where i i it's trying to decide which way it wants to go, and that's where i think cpi data is going to play a huge role.

I think cpi data is going to determine whether my theory is wrong. Uh or whether my theory is right and that's it, i. I think this is a pretty pretty big deal. I think if, if, if the market chooses to pick some downside right now, my timeline would be wrong and i'm going to say that here, first and foremost, what i would be banking on without a shadow of a doubt at this point, given everything that's happened, give Anything that's going on.

Uh is a a a good cpi week to continue to the upside think, i'm right about sort of the slowed down growth and all that sort of stuff. I'm not even debating that. You know everything that i've stated so far about uh, volatile, rips and dips, followed by slow, rallies and and sort of correction phases and retracements, and all that stuff that'll definitely happen where i would be wrong this time. Uh, i think that's genuinely it.

You know i stated one to three months: it's been about two uh and if, if this comes out, i think that extends things just being straight. I think that small mid-cap rally would be extended if there's, if there's bad cpi so watch for that, that's what i'm personally watching for uh. We can also take a look at the spy right now right now, where i would kind of put it is in a falling bull flag. You were inclined to believe that in a falling bull flag, you would you would follow through with the bull part.

I mean. That's kind of in the name right uh, but we are waiting to see this is sort of one of those spots where we you've got your fingers crossed monday expect low volume, probably not a lot of action, maybe it'll be red. Half a percent, maybe it'll, be green half percent, but in comparison to the swings we've had. I think it's gon na be pretty minor unless something comes out from russia or biden opens his mouth or jerome.

Powell opens his mouth, but i don't know if anything actually happening right now outside of just cpi data. So i think money will be low volume, not a lot of movement across the broad market and then tuesday is going to be. Where hits the fan either to the upside or the downside, that's what i'm watching for uh. These are the levels connect the dots, connect, connect, connect, connect, connect and hopefully another connect.

Maybe it'll come up and test this, since it's going to be a a low volume day, no really news coming out, maybe it'll test that level reject that's kind of what i would be inclined to believe. It's sort of a test comes up, rejects, comes down, uh and then from there you know. Who knows i mean it depends on cpi. That's really what i'm watching right now.

So, there's that i'm gon na review tesla uh - as i mentioned before, this - was the play of the day coming into last week, and i had leveled off sort of this uh decent level of resistance, and i want to take the opportunity to uh take a step Back and evaluate what happened right, i was more inclined to believe that this would be a call scenario uh without a shadow of a doubt. You know you look at this sort of on the hourly you look at how this is set up set up is a call scenario. In my opinion, this is like a falling bull flag, very similar to the spy. I think it will eventually track this.

I think it will eventually break out of this this sort of ping-pong back and forth between this, this falling channel uh, but for now it's still following the channel. What i'm inclined to believe is gon na happen tomorrow, not really important right. I've got a different play altogether, but uh it just chose to bounce off the top of this channel. We come over here to the 15 minute candles.

What do you see it rejects off of the top of this channel in the pre-market from there? I see this false breakout. I see the rejection. I immediately know this is gon na, be a put play. Why? Because it got this false breakout right here and off of that false breakout.

It rejected right here off the rejection, you'd expect to put plate uh. This would be a situation where i probably would not have taken the trade. I'm gon na be honest with you just based on the fact that uh it it didn't meet my conditions. It didn't meet my criteria.

What i would have wanted to see is a retest of the top of this level right here, uh to tap the tap the the top of this uh white line and then come back down. I would have taken the play for uh for a put, however, if you can connect dots as i've sort of been trying to teach you know over the previous uh couple of weeks. You connect the dot here here here here here. What you would find is an opportunity for a very small scale, bounce plate.

Now. What do i mean by that? You change over to one minute candles. You see that it sort of taps taps down on this exact level and comes back up. You could have taken advantage of every time that it dips beneath this level, uh that a huge move will come now, this one a little scary.

This was a little bit of a nerve wracker because uh, it's tough to to see if this is gon na, be a breakdown from beneath the channel or if it's going to to rally back to the top of sort of where it's been trading uh. So so this one was kind of tough. I probably wouldn't have taken it unless i got confirmation, as i'd mentioned before you want to see it tap, it come back up or even false, break down and then tap it again like. I would have taken an entry on this where it gives you that that confirmation, bounce back comes back up here.

You see a false breakdown. Underneath you see it comes back up, then you don't really get a confirmation. Bounce, that's a tough one. I mean you could take that, but that's risky uh, the the real money maker here the opportunity was, if you had the balls at open - and i like i mentioned - i wouldn't have done this because i didn't meet my criteria to meet my confirmation.

Uh sort of guidelines it would be to take a put on the open. That would have been the best case scenario. However, if you wanted to take it, you know right here, for a bounce could have done that uh. This was a tougher one.

I mean the selloff at the open was your best opportunity and then there was a lot of chat for the rest of the day. So that's sort of my analysis on that. You know these are levels that i was watching for and next i'm going to close this off with apple, because apple is in and is in a very similar situation, but changes to the hourly uh and i'm going to give you an if this than that scenario Right as always, uh i've got a guideline of four different things that i try to watch for. Entry, stop loss runners exit entry meeting.

I have a plan for my my entry stop loss, meaning i have a plan for if things go wrong, runners, meaning i have a plan for where i'm going to start taking profits and exit for. I have a plan for where i'm going to take. All of my profits uh that's sort of the guidelines here. If this, then that right, we'll give you a call scenario, then we'll give you a a bearish scenario, a put scenario.

I am leaning towards the the spy i'm looking at the spy and the chart where it sits right now. I personally believe uh that you're gon na see it tap up here to the top of this level. Right now, i'm thinking about this from my own psychological perspective, uh, tomorrow being a low volume day, there shouldn't really be any news catalysts out there. I think you're going to see a weak rally, low volume, uh spy, trying to come up and test the top of this coming into cpi data.

Tomorrow, i'm more inclined, i believe, it'll be bearish. That's my maybe perhaps bias you know just my belief in the fed. My belief in uh, where things are currently sitting right now, uh, but there's also a gap, fill right here that the spy may try to test out the top of we'll see. I think it is likely going to continue on the the wave that it's had.

You know bouncing back and forth between these channels and i think they will come up and test that, and because of that, i believe that apple is a good call play uh. We can play it both ways, there's opportunity both ways and actually, if it breaks down beneath this level right here, it'll be a hard selloff. But let me give you the call scenario: first, connect some dots, dot, dot, dot, dot dot; that's the descending level of uh support resistance, dot, dot, dot, false breakout, dot, dot right. What i'm watching for here is a bounce off of this descending level of support and at the entry at the open, if you have an opportunity to take a call, this is what i would personally do.

I would take a call on a confirmation - bounce off of the bottom of this descending level, of uh resistance or support i'd, be watching for that. I think same day, it's very possible that you see it come up and test the resistance, the downside resistance level, and that is where i would be looking to take a full exit. Stop-Loss then, at 15 uh, i personally believe runners every quarter so 25, 50. 75 percent will be taking a little bit of profit off the table.

Each hash mark of profit, 25 up 50 up 75 up right, do your thing uh and then from there full exit, if it bounces, if it taps this and rejects you're out. That's what i would personally do a put scenario - and this is where i think, you'd have a more violent move. Uh less inclined to believe this. This is a falling wedge pattern right, forming up that sort of wedge uh wedged out pattern would be if it uh breaks down beneath this downside level of support breakdown underneath this at open.

If that happens, i think it's a solid entry, you'll be looking for the breakdown under and come back up to test and tap the white line, but tessen taps the white line. You want to track it as it comes down. That's my personal opinion. Uh from there.

There's specific levels that i think should be key uh to watch for the the big one would probably be sort of this momentum level. Uh right about here, that's gon na, be the big hiccup right off the bat which actually lines up really well with this white line. So if it breaks down beneath that you'll see an even more violent move from there. I think you've got a flat top at 165, which is uh a five dollar-ish swing.

I mean you can make a pretty decent chunk of change off of that. If we were to look at the the delta on this right now, a one dollar move to the downside is gon na net you uh 67 cents. I mean you is 67 cents on a 360 contract if you're to grab 172's or 170's. Ultimately, it's up to you, i'm not here to tell you that, but you can walk away pretty well.

I think you can make some good money it's gon na. This could be 100 play to the downside. If that does come to fruition, uh and my same sort of rules apply right. Looking for uh taking off profit from the table, every quarter stop loss 10 to 15 percent uh full exit i'd be targeting this 165 18..

Ultimately, it's up to you. What you got to do is what you got to do, uh and that's what i got for this video so feel like we covered some good topics today. I also just released my uh my hour and 40 minute long options, master class. If you're interested in that sort of thing learning about options, whatever i spent a lot of time on it, i appreciate it.

If you guys went and checked it out, uh they'd be sick, and outside of that, you know appreciate you guys watching catch on the next one: much lovely attacks, peace.