Yo yo yo yo yo. What's up guys, it's trey uh! I know this isn't a typical setup, but right now i'm uh chilling in a hotel in minnesota. Uh, it's early as hell. I just got to the hotel it's uh 4.

49 in the morning. I don't know if you guys can see that uh, so i just figured i'd catch up, because i wasn't really online much at all whatever uh, and this is like a throwback to the good old days. We don't want to look up the neighbors, though so i got ta keep it quiet gon na, keep it chill um. I wanted to talk about the spy and the fed and obviously the really really really really really really really really crappy red day that uh the market saw 3.55 red day now you really can't get much more wrong than exactly backwards wrong, so i kind of want To be able to walk through uh my thought process, because i put out this video i'm going to show you guys, uh real, quick yesterday, uh or two days ago now.

That said, finally, good news - and this was referring to uh the fed talking jay pal talking about the the planned rate hikes. They they have a total of two more 50 point rate hikes planned for after this followed by 25 point uh rate hikes, which was uh, as i thought priced in positively by um the market, and if we come back to the chart, i'll show you guys this Really quick, i've got spy pulled up when you look at this on the hourly, you can see the exact moment in which what appeared to be uh sort of the the market pricing in uh very solid sort of deal. With these rate hikes, i mean you see this huge pump volume coming right here, which came in about the exact time that uh, you know the fed sort of announced. Yes, we are going to be going with the 50 basis.

Point hike instead of the the 75 or the 25 and uh. It was my personal belief that the market had priced in for somewhere between 50 and 75. Well, uh, you see that huge sort of move to the upside if you're, looking this on, you know more of an hourly time frame. What you would notice is uh sort of this big top out right and, if you're looking at this top out, what you're, gon na notice is that three times one two three different times it triple topped at about 428 or so and uh coming off of that There were sort of two big options.

One of them was a that it breaks above it obviously and b was that it retraces off of that level. Now i don't have everything drawn up that i have at home. Typically, i'm on my laptop just kind of uh rolling, with the punches right now, but obviously it rejected very heavily off of that level and that uh sort of bled into everything else. If i was to pull up amc right now, you're gon na see well amc wanted to have not not a green day.

I mean if you found a green stock uh. You know in the works of what happened in the market yesterday. Uh it probably wasn't a stock. You probably just found a piece of diarrhea turd.

I don't know it wouldn't make much sense to me. So with that being said, the first and most important thing that i can do is tell you that i was wrong. You know my belief and my understanding and i'll pitch this to you in the simplest way that i can was uh, that the market had surprisingly reacted to the fed talking as if it was already fully priced in. You know if i was to show you guys the chart, as i just did uh you would see that there was a very big move.

I mean the spy was green significantly that day it was up uh, 3.05 percent uh, and i viewed that as all right looks to me like we get a little bit of certainty in the markets. Things look like they're decently priced in, and that was my assumption and uh. I was wrong today we got a negative 3.55 red day coming off of essentially no news uh, which is quite puzzling, so i thought to myself really hard, and this was bugging me - the entire drive here i left at noon, uh on the fifth of may, and We got here at 4, 30, all checked in whatever and uh on that drive. I ended up calling my friends his name's josh uh, on on twitter, he's known as lucid trades.

Uh he's a really smart guy and, to be honest with you, he's a great follower because he's really been nailing the market lately and i talked to him - and i said i just i'm - not understanding this dude like why. Why did this juke out so hard? Why would the market the exact time that the fed speaks react as if uh everything's going well, because if you look at this on any time frame, i mean the 15 minute you're going to see that the fed comes out and talks. Jay powell says this is our plan. He lays out a picture-perfect idea of what he would like to do and the market just hammers i mean the volume is there, it looks like a genuine pump and then today you get this very low volume sort of sell-off.

In comparison, what we saw yesterday and he actually uh, he offered me an interesting piece of a sort of insight in what he thought happened and what josh believes - and this does make sense by the way - is that you actually got t plus two delivery on ftds And a couple different blue chip stocks that were lined up specifically with the fed talk now that would actually imply something pretty unique uh, and that would be that whoever covered those ftds, specifically market makers. Maybe this is citadel, maybe a susquehanna sus being the that's. The big word in that that name or wolverine whatever it may be, uh they decided to in this scenario, or in this instance, uh cover ftd's t plus two settlement system at the exact time that the fed was talking with the idea that it would make people Believe, uh, that this was coming off of fed news instead of actual uh technical, so to speak, covering now. If you look up different, you know names uh within the system.

You can look at apple. You can see these exact the exact same thing. You look at amazon, you can see they did the exact same thing, there's a lot of different stocks that had massive massive moves at the exact same time as a spy. Basically, everything did uh and what that kind of leads me to believe and what josh believes is you actually did not have uh the market react positively.

I mean you can see that today we had a negative three point: five five percent red day, you're thinking to yourself right now. Trey will take a genius to make that conclusion at this point, but uh uh. I was genuinely puzzled. I really was i i saw this uh when i left this morning.

I thought to myself, like i just can't wrap my head around it. I couldn't wrap my head around it uh and if it's not this, this t plus two settlement thing, it really genuinely doesn't make sense. I i i can't make any sense of this situation. The market uh in any other situation, certainly should have just given it straight.

I mean if, if you get a positive reaction out of a market when the fed talks uh, either up or down right, they react positively. You'd expect upside if they react negatively. You'd expect downside uh and we got upside reaction. I mean it seemed to be like the market bought in and that perception was uh very easily tricked you know, there's no other way.

To put it, i i was duped. I was fooled and i was wrong uh. It just appears that the market didn't react as positively as i thought uh. If it's not this t plus two settlement of ftds failure to delivers uh, don't know what it would be and we really just have to take it day by day.

I guess if there's, if there's any, take away from me right now, looking at the charts and looking at everything taking place, it's uh that the market is is in a really crazy state. Uh of panic right now of volatility, like i haven't seen since i've been in the market. This is this is very 2008 esk things look very strange and what i'm honestly keeping my eye on the most is cpi data coming out next week. That is going to dictate a lot of what comes, i think in the future, um, especially considering, obviously, that the market just juked us, i mean i apparently had a three percent green day just to follow it up with a bigger red day, the following day: um.

I'm watching for cpi, i think if it's stagnant or i think, if it's slightly lower uh, that you could have a nice bull run. I think if it's higher that you're gon na have more downside, and i don't know what what's to come. I don't know if we've seen the peak yet i guess we just have to wait to see that. But i think it's important to own your mistakes and i don't want to make it seem like uh, i'm just running away from having been wrong, because that was like a jim cramer ass backwards sort of wrong.

I couldn't have been further off the mark than uh that i was uh and i wanted to explain to you why i came to that conclusion. Uh and the situation to be honest with you. I i think i would have came to that conclusion. Even still today, i think if i saw that 50 basis, point hike get that technical bounce at that specific level.

At the exact time of the fed talks, i would have came to no other conclusion. I would, though, there's no possible way. I would have never in a million years thought you got a negative 3.55 uh day to follow. Never would have guessed it uh and, to be honest with you, i don't know what to expect in the next coming days.

I i genuinely don't market's in a goofy spot right now, uh and i guess that's uh, that's my update on that. So uh want to give you guys the the straight shoot on that entire situation. Uh learning points, thoughts whatever and i guess i'll just leave it at that so appreciate y'all tuning in i'm gon na try and intermittently make videos, while i'm while i'm here in town. My sister doesn't graduate college this weekend.

So i gon na be focused mostly on that, but as i get time, i will be hanging out and uh making a few vids so i'll catch. You all later appreciate you tuning in much lovely taps. Peace.