Guess who's back. It's me he's silly goofballs hi, it's trey! Did you guys miss me, probably not, but guess what we're back today and it's gon na be an amc. Related video uh focused video uh. I know i know i know a lot of you guys wish.

I would make videos about amy every single day uh, but i try to wait until there's actually something to discuss and there is something to discuss now, uh from a technical standpoint from a chart, standpoint uh from a couple different standpoints, i'd like to focus particularly on That so we're going to talk about what it would look like for a continuation of breakout, particular levels that you could see along the way and what the the the worst case scenarios would be so uh before we get into it. Guys, i'm going to trace right here we're going to talk faster, classically, we're probably saying i'm going to find some fun experiments. So please stand aside. Let's get into the video today i had a lot of people.

Ask me trey uh. How did amc uh have the move that it did there's a couple different answers. You know some people said it's because hashtag ken griffin lied was trending on twitter. Some people said it was because that one goofball, what was his name ass man or something uh? You guys know what i'm talking about cliff ass man.

He went on mainstream media and said that he's short on amc about point one: six percent of his portfolio or something some people hypothesized, is because the gamestop report came out uh, but the truth of the matter is it's because i drink water, uh nah, but from A real standpoint uh the reason what you why you got this move today. Uh is quite simple: you had a technical, breakout uh. Now it's quite simple in first grade they teach you how to connect das and that's what you do in this situation. You tap it.

You tap it, you tap it, you get all these three taps and you draw a line connecting all these different touch points, and you can see that today it officially broke through this falling level of resistance that has spanned all the way back to march of 2022.. This is critical. This is actually a very similar setup to what we got way back before we had this massive run up to 34. and ultimately you're waiting to see if it is going to replicate this again.

So that's what we're going to be talking about today. What is it going to look like to replicate that run-up and maybe even get something better than that, because it did end up falling just short of what i would consider to be the holy grail trend line? Now, if you want to draw these on your own uh, i already showed you this one. I have another one right here and this is what i'm waiting for a break on and then you're connecting these dots. I am on a log chart, keep that in the back of your mind, you can do this on trading.

By going to the bottom right of your chart, clicking log you tap, tap, almost tap, almost tap tap, tap and then tap and a break above. This is going to be quite critical, so that's another line, and then the grand finale line is this. One tap tap tap tap tap right. Just this following trend line right here now, there's a couple different scenarios that i've got drawn out and today by the way, was a picture-perfect breakout.

The reason i say that you know quite simply put is you have the volume to follow through with it right? You get this bowl out, it's consolidating consolidating, consolidating volume increases as it breaks out here. This is beautiful. This is exactly what you want to see. You want to see.

Volume increases off of a technical breakout, which is what we got right uh going into tomorrow into the rest of the week. I want to actually see a situation - that's very similar to right here right, so we got back here as a breakout from this falling trend line. It lasted about a month or so 10 february to about uh 22 march about a month and a weekish uh, and it broke this trend and moved up to this trend line and then flagged out for a while before breaking above that right. I think that this is the best case scenario.

What happened? Well, if you look at the rsi, which is a relative strength index, gives you an idea of when things are overbought or oversold, this purple trend line right here. You can get this by going to indicators and turning this on on your own trading view, chart or weeble or think or somewhere ever you use right. It tapped out at about 86, then drop back down about 50 to then get another massive run up to about 34 right. This consolidation of this bull flagging this falling resistance, rising support, flag out pattern that you got off of that nice move was the consolidation of the cool off and breathing period that amy needed to get that nice push to 34 bucks right.

I want to actually see a replication of that, and that is what this white trend line represents right here now today, i tweeted out that i believe uh amy is going to come up to about 1450 in 1460 or so and that's what this yellow circle represents And that is the trend line that we need to break uh. So here is the flag out opportunity right it would uh. It would look something like falling resistance. Rising support continues to bounce back and forth until eventually breaking to the upside.

This would be the best case scenario right. Is that going to happen can't guarantee it could might not uh worst case scenario? Is this red one it rejects here, and that is possible right if you look historically at every time that it's tapped, this trend line? The last time that it did way back in may uh it rejected it came back down, and this is when it hit about 16 and a half dollars, or so so it could tap this and reject and come back down. That is an option uh. This is a i mean you can see it right.

This has happened in the past uh, so we have to keep that on the table. If that happens, i think that amc over the period of a couple of weeks would return back to this rising trend line to keep respecting this pattern, and that is why i said uh about 12 bucks or so right. That'd be the worst case scenario for amy right now, but there is a beautiful one. The white and the green lines represent a true breakout, in which case you're, looking at sort of two big big spots.

Right i'd be watching for about 16 and a half dollars and from there the real opportunity, the touch point and the tap at the holy grail trend line. Now is this going to happen? I don't know for sure right. I can't guarantee you anything. I think if the spy is green, this is going to uh influence this pretty heavily.

If the spy is red, it's going to be very hard for amc to get some strength in its sails. Uh it needs. It needs a strong market to sort of back. The moves, and, if you don't believe that uh all you have to do is look at the spiral that we got over the last couple days which allowed for this to happen in the first place uh.

But there is also a second piece of this, and that is the amc, historical implied volatility. Now. This is something that i've discussed quite a lot in the past and it's the idea that uh amc's historical implied volatility has been overly juiced for some time, and what i mean by that is, it goes through extreme periods of high high high volatility, and this is How options are priced in any given day calls and puts? I didn't realize i was frozen at this point. I mean too deep, whatever uh just keep going, but nonetheless, uh you know implied volatility is how options contracts get priced in right and they're priced based on two key factors, and one of those factors is volatility.

Obviously, and the other is what people are going to pay for both calls and puts. So if you have a lot of people buying calls uh, historically speaking, call price seems to stay high. If you have more people buying puts well put, prices tend to stay high. It's all about supply and demand if people are buying your supply, keep the demand high people, aren't you lower the prices and what you'll notice is every time options, volume dries up and there's less calls being played that historical volatility tends to drop.

Well, you had a huge period of that and then today uh, you finally got sort of a bounce off of what would be an uptrend of that overall historic implied uh volatility. I'm gon na show you what that looks like right. So if i come over here to my tweets, you'll see that i tweeted this out here today. It looks something like this right: it's respecting some sort of triangle pattern, tap tap tap from here.

I'd expect a decent size push up, and if it breaks this top trend line of historical implied volatility, which is how options priced it's, how expensive calls get excuse me uh. I would expect it to match the overall price of the stock. That would be a great overall sign, as this typically moves alongside volatility right. This is a market maker's way of protecting themselves, so to speak so uh.

Why did that happen? In the first place? Well, number one volatility decreased and number two uh. There was a better overall balance and call to put premium what that means is less people were buying calls, and there was an overall, better balance and why that's important is because it wasn't necessarily a great time to buy costs. You see, timing is everything. I've mentioned this before i'll, say it again.

Buying calls isn't bad buying calls at the wrong time. Gambling calls losing money on calls is bad if you use the tool incorrectly, it's not a great tool. If you use the tool properly, it's a fantastic tool, you can get some nice moves well uh. This is certainly a time in which the implied volatility would lean towards saying hey over the next couple of weeks.

You can expect that implied volatility will tap up to the top of this trend line that i just pointed out to you before, which is here right, tends to do that. It'll tap here and it'll come back up and tap again, so i'd expect a decent size. Push off this, this does look pretty good. This is a nice pattern, it does look solid and you did get a technical breakout to match it and if everything goes square right, 29, 30 bucks - if it breaks here at about 1460 or so.

This is what i would watch for over the next coming weeks. Right uh, it's definitely possible. It looks fantastic. This is a great setup, uh and i'll.

The only last thing that i would say right to keep an eye on is volume right. Volume is good now, how are you going to know if this best case scenario, like the white line of the green line, isn't going to take place right? You can't have fake outs, for example, if, if you see a push to the upside, but volume continues to fade down, probably a fake out right, there's not a lot of strength in that move. Well, i said today was a clean. Breakout is because the volume here was high.

You want to see that volume uh high and following through with the overall move as that'll indicate that buyers are stepping in uh to sort of match the move: the algorithms, the institutions, the hedge funds, the uh, the market makers, the u's right the knees, the everybody's Uh this is this: is the move, that's how you know right. So you want to see volume following through on that last thing, i'll say is: if we get this white pattern, what i'd really like to see is a fade in volume followed by the push-up. You want to actually see a fade in volume when you're flagging out in a bowler situation, because it shows that uh there's not enough sellers to push price down. It's essentially buyers uh, psychologically speaking waiting for the next move to see if there are gon na be sellers stepping in.

If there's not well, there's your opportunity to push things up, so that's what you'd be waiting for uh. So i actually want to see that don't be scared if you see volume decreasing if we get a consolidation period, that's normal! That's actually a good thing that does indicate uh strength in the overall move, and i'd be quite satisfied with that. So uh. Those are the different situations that i see the worst case is.

This is a rejection. You replicate this move, in which case i think it's going to come down and test 12 over the coming weeks. Uh the best case scenarios is white flag out pattern, which is very similar to what we saw back here in march right flag out before a huge touch point up to here. The best case is, it comes back up to this trend line 28 29 dollars, and i've said this before i'll say it again.

If you break that trend line, that's the holy grail, that's the 1450 of back in may of 2021. That is what will initiate a squeeze uh. You will get a big big, big, big, big move off of a technical breakout like that uh and it would look pretty nasty pretty dirty. This looks very reminiscent of what we saw back in march of 2022 this year.

I can't guarantee you anything right, but the setup is very similar. The implied volatility is nice and low, leading into this uh. The technicals look good. The buying volume is there the potential's there right uh, the only hiccup you're waiting on is.

This is going to be a rejection, or is this going to be the breakout? Because if this is the breakout well you're going to see a big move to the upside and that's what we're waiting on? That's what you're trying to see if it's going to happen or not, and if not well uh, i think you're, just gon na get a little more tightening right as it comes back down to this trend line, i think it'll continue to bounce back and forth until It decides it wants to break to the upside that'd. Be my bet right. That's what i've got for this video, so hopefully that was valuable, uh yeah, all right catch! You later much lovely tips, peace.