's up gang. It's uh your boy trey and i know i know i i've been gone for a minute uh. I apologize i'd say it was moving. But i i ended up getting pertinent.

So yeah you gotta pardon me i gotta take care of my uh. My offspring by drinking. Some diet coke today. I actually have some i think good news to discuss and i know this sounds crazy.

I was actually just looking at me kevin's page and uh he's incredibly bearish. I think his video his last video said something along the lines of uh like this could be a bad month or something. But i might actually share a differing opinion from him. And i want to explain to you as to why uh.

So let's do that guys i'm going to trade straight through if we can talk fast no uh let's get into it today. I'd like to discuss why i think. The spy is going to go through a short term rally pretty good one uh. I could be wrong about this i'm gonna explain my reasoning reminder this is my first bear market.

I have not tried to predict the bottom of one i don't think this is the bottom of one. I actually if you ask me now for example uh trey in 365 days. Do you think that 360 is the lowest. The spy will have gone.

I would say no i don't think so. But i do think that you will see a similar rally to back in i'd say march of this year uh and let's just go over why pardon the the goofiness if my screen freezes. I'm not gonna know uh as i am just using one monitor right now my cat broke my other one uh long story. But uh.

We're just gonna keep going anyways. So the spy. Right spy is important the s p. 500 is the top 500 large cap companies large capitalization companies in the us.

Stock. Market. When this is down in a bear. Market typically everything goes down uh.

You can think of it as as like uh. If you're on a slip and slide man it doesn't matter if you're 500 pounds doesn't matter if you're 10 pounds you're going down the slip and slide down the hill. It's just tough a lot can different can be said about a 500 pound guy versus a 100 pound guy going up a mountain you're gonna have different outcomes. But both of those people are gonna come down the mountain uh not both of them are gonna go up much tougher to go up right.

I think you're gonna get a short term rally. The reasoning for this is because of these main reasons gold silver oil and these are listed by uh in terms of importance to me right number two is dxy number three is the spy chart and number four are the yields right now i find gold silver and oil to be the most interesting because uh these typically go down. When the market goes up and go up when the market goes down you can think of them as hedges against a recession. So to speak and the reason this came to my mind in the first place is this morning.

I was doing some scans i was looking over the spy i was looking over nvidia tesla amd all sorts of different tickers and i looked to the right of my trading view and i saw this oil gold silver futures all red significantly red oil down 10 and this morning it was down about 11 or 12 gold down 23 silver down. 363 i thought huh this is weird because the spy is down. 18 it was down 18. At the lowest point at the open and uh that's pretty it's not usually like that right that's a divergence of sorts.

And i thought to myself this seems like a divergence. I feel like the spy is going to go up uh and i'll tell you why if you look at the actual charts and you look at silver for example. It has a very major falling support line. This is the reason.

I thought of it in the first place i clicked on this and i had it written now i don't know when i wrote this. But i definitely did spy rally. If it goes down spy die. If it goes up that did happen right uh.

But at the time. It wasn't like that the same thing can be said about gold gold. This is a support line dating back to november of 2019 silvers was back in uh. August of 2020.

You look at oils same thing right falling through a major support line february 2022. These are pretty major supports that they're breaking down from. And that typically would would say hey you could expect a little bit of continuation and follow through based on this move right maybe. It's just the day.

Maybe. It's a one day movement. It's a fake up breakout or fake out breakdown. I should say and it comes back from there.

But it seems unlikely right in a scenario. Where these are fake out breakdowns everything. I said forget everything i said is basically useless uh. But that carries a lot of weight to me uh.

Why is this the case right well when you're in the market you move money from places. If you if you take money out of the stock market big money so to speak moves. It typically somewhere else whether it's bonds cryptocurrency. Real estate uh hedges against the recession hedges against the bear market such as commodities or precious metals or oil.

They're just moving money around right. It's a big freaking game of clean your money wash it right they're trying to wash it in a million different spots because most of these guys get their money dirty anyways uh and gold silver going down means that money's moving somewhere else well in this instance. I think it's the stock market. Which brings me to point number two the dxy now the dxy represents the us.

Dollar and this might sound actually kind of ass backwards. But the us dollar goes up and down not because of inflation. It's actually uh pretty much just based on supply and demand. Which is what inflation is right.

But it's different. It's the cost of things and not the worth of the dollar itself. Now the worth of the dollar uh per inflation a dollar does not get you as much. But there's two ways you can look at it is the dollar going down in value or is the value of everything else going up.

And it seems to be the ladder and not the former right now let me show you this chart the dollar has gone up in value since may of 2021. Why this could actually be an inclination and a hint towards a recession to come. This is because the dollar goes up in value when it's being transacted less essentially people are sitting on money they're not going out as much they're not spending as much money at their favorite companies. They're not traveling they're not uh.

They're not stimulating the economy right and this would uh in turn lower available supply even though the same amount of money exists. It's not being traded as much it's not transacting as much which is going to increase demand. Which translates to an increase in the value of the us dollar. But there's a thing that's happened here that i find to be interesting because if the us dollar is going up it usually means that uh you're at risk of a recession.

You can look back historically speaking. And this does seem to be the case. Let me show you guys uh further out on the. Daily you look back on the daily.

2 here back in 01. You had some problems right you look back to these periods of time. 85. You had some problems right uh and now we come back to this well you're facing sort of the same overarching issue.

Which is that the dollar has increased the value which would indicate a recession. However there is a divergence and this would actually line up if it happens to us. Oil gold and silver. You have an increase in price high or low high or low high or low.

Well. Rsi. Is decreasing lows. Lower high lower high lower high higher high higher high higher high.

This could actually be a hint as to what's to come similar to what i saw this morning. When i saw this morning that uh that futures on oil gold and silver were red. But the stock market was right i thought you'd see a reversal. Right uh you saw that happen.

I think the same thing is going to happen. Here i think that the us. Dollar is going to break down from this rising wedge. Which is a reversal pattern now i don't know why i don't know why the dollar.

Respects lines. But i promise you it does you can look back at this you're going to see it breaks out from this it taps this line over and over and over again. It's a dollar. It's something that people just hand off on the streets man how does it make sense why cough man.

The illuminati. I don't know maybe we got maybe lizard people around the country. I couldn't tell you but it is how it is the dollar. A piece of paper that you handed to somebody for a milky way this morning.

Happens to respect technical analysis. Right and if this rising wedge comes to fruition that could actually be a sign of good things to come for the country and for uh recession tax. So to speak right. This is actually interesting to me and if that reversal happens so the downside for the dollar.

I think you'll watch the spy rip spy chart. This is the weakest of my thesis uh. I'd say the spy right now has a very micro sort of strength to it right today closed pretty solidly green. You've got three days in a row that has bounced off this falling support line increasing volume today.

I think there's a chance you watch the scaffold of 390 to 400 bucks or so uh that's one of them last thing. I mentioned was the yield that was on the chart in case you missed it uh one thing. I was mentioning in chat today. I'm gonna bring this up just for a brief moment is that the 10 year yield.

If it decreases. What you're going to find is this when it goes up uh stocks should go down when it goes down stocks usually go up why well if you're getting less of a yield you want to move your money somewhere else remember what i mentioned before people don't just sell the suit on money they sell and they move money somewhere else. It's a game of freaking wash wash your money somewhere. Right and you've.

Watched the 10 year. Yield go down from. 349 on june 14th to. Where it is now two weeks later 282.

This is a sign they maybe shouldn't be playing puts right uh. This is contradictory to i think what a lot of people are saying right now a lot of people are calling for i think meet kevin and many many others are incredibly bearish right now and i was a week ago until i really sat down and looked at this stuff. But i think short term uh you are actually going to watch a reversal. Now this is counter intuitive right.

I want to make that painfully clear. This is counter intuitive to what makes sense within the economy and i see that my camera froze. I'll fix that really quick right now sorry about my my cat meowing uh. But it's counterintuitive to what you think about and what you think about is hey the economy doesn't really look that good it looks pretty shitty actually if we really wanted to talk about it.

But uh. Despite that the market can make no sense for longer than you can try to make sense of it it's probably. The best way that i could say uh this whole piece right even though the economy still sucks. The counter argument would be hey the dollar's just going to keep going up in value.

Which means americans are still not spending as much money as they were before in which case hey it just kind of sucks. It is what it is we're we're gonna see more downside right. But this is pretty major breakdowns from uh hedges against uh a recession hedges against the bear market. The effect of this would be huge rallies everywhere.

Including amc uh in a bear. Market everything kind of gets brought down the slip and slide. In a bull. Market.

You really have some more individuality more opportunity to see what happens uh and like i mentioned before the beginning of the video. I don't think you've seen the end of the bear market. I think i'm watching for these three things inflation's got to go down mainstream media has to start pushing a recession because right now they're not doing that they're saying recessions aren't happening uh are we in a recession. The recession is your fault.

If it is happening stop being a big baby about inflation. It's actually good for you you cause inflation. They're not saying. It's happening yet when they push a recession at that point.

I think you're close to a bottom. But i don't think we've seen it yet. I think you're just about to watch a rally that could be fun to watch. And then lastly hedges going down so we've kind of checked one of these boxes.

We haven't checked them all right if we're going down the list. I don't know if i'm right or wrong. These are what i'm watching for uh. These are there's only one box.

I still want to see this and i still want to see this and we haven't gotten these two yet so in the long run you know i don't know man maybe. This is maybe this will happen. But i do think this is worth keeping an eye on the very least and i do think. It is a good sign for a rally within the market.

I at this point. Think you're going to see 400 for the spy before you see 350. I still think 350 will come maybe it takes a couple months. Maybe it takes six maybe it takes four weeks maybe it takes two weeks but i think you're gonna see 400 bucks before you see 350 and that is going to translate to a lot of things i think it's going to translate to stocks going up uh having breakouts.

Seeing massive rallies getting some relief and ultimately that translates to uh some some good stuff. So that's what i got uh don't know if i'm right or wrong yet we're gonna find out i figured i'd share my thoughts with you please share a counter argument uh because i i'm open to that i don't know uh the right answer. I only know what i'm trying to uh to get across and what i'm trying to learn so uh please this there's some there's definitely kind of arguments. Here share them in the comments.

I'll read them and we'll open up the door for. Conversation i'll be live on twitchtv. Forward slash anti juicer tonight. At 7 00.

Eastern. Now that i'm in north carolina. It's eastern time uh. So if you like to stop by they'll be sick otherwise.

I'll be back uh tomorrow. Same as usual so appreciate you guys till then till. The next one much lovely taps as always peace.