Good evening Afternoon morning Everybody hope you all are enjoying your your evening afternoon. in the morning it's your boy. Draven Trace trades Uh, we're gonna be going over some spy analysis and man, let me tell you, it took me a minute to sit down and actually stare at the charts because I was watching the Vikings game earlier today and it took me like two hours to fully decompress and absorb. Um, that ridiculous win man, let me say Janice that boy. he got that dog in him every time. every time he uh, breeds in. uh, rumor has it that a a A a dog barks out of his uh, his cheeks. quite the dude. not a financial advisor. This isn't financial advice. Uh, more so I'm focused on giving some ideas and some thought processes. on the spy and on the broad. Market Moving forward for the week. So I'm gonna go over some levels, some charts that I think are important, uh, some events that are coming up, some narratives, some options, flow some data, and uh, from there you decide ultimately what you would like to do. So um, yeah, we'll just go from here. It's gonna be a pretty long video. I Want to give the complete rundown and if I think there's any need to update these levels as the week progresses, uh, we'll do that. Otherwise, you know, consider this to be sort of my my weekly Outlook video. So we're gonna start off here with uh, the weekly chart. but just to give you sort of an idea of what we're going to be looking at, I'm going to be looking at the weekly chart for the Spy daily chart for the Spy hourly chart for the Spy We're gonna be looking at Dxy because I think this is an important chart as well. Vix Uh, we're gonna be looking at the the options Market data. Uh, so this is going to be net flow via trading ticks and some other key things. We'll be looking at sector performance and rotation because I am interested in where money is flowing and I do think this is going to make a difference in put particular trades that maybe you guys are interested in taking for the week, whatever that may be. I Did also go through the economic calendar so we have ideas of key events are coming up. I did Mark those out we'll go over the ones that I think are important. Ultimately, if there are something you think are more important than what I have labeled, of course, make sure you take the time to go find them. Uh, and then there's a couple of other key things to be keeping an eye on as we progress through the week because this, ultimately, uh, can you know impact price. Many people think that news and narratives um, are what move price, but it's quite the opposite. It's it's news and narratives that are used by market makers dealers Banks institutions to push a certain direction based on whatever the chart is telling us, right? So, uh, let's just start off with the chart right. The weekly looks really nice and I told this to caveman. Uh, there's a link in the description box down below if you'd like to check it out. It's always a caveman on Monday last week that I had a price target of 390 coming into this next week. Uh, specifically because of this tap that we got right here. This little toe touch on the weekly 200 EMA Now the weekly 200 is why is it important? It's it's uh, it's a level, right? I mean the 200 Uh is is for whatever reason a number, it's a EMA and exponential moving average that big money tends to use to base risk for their trades. So if big money is using this, it typically means that we want to track it because, um, ultimately, that's what's going to end up moving things right? So we got that toe tap on the weekly 200. Uh, rejected off that and based on that I Thought you know the the most likely thing we're going to see is a retest of 390 which is a very key. Sr Flip Support resistance. flip right? Uh, we all know what support resistance is, right? It's your flat tops or you're falling in Rising levels Where you get you know TAPS in. It's very hard for price to to break those levels, right? Well, 390 is a very big one. We we uh, cracked that and couldn't quite tap above these two weeks and we came through it uh, this previous week which is really important and that really brings us into sort of the next piece which is where now and I've got some points of interest sort of labeled in these white circles that you can see on the weekly right here. Uh, as such. Now in a hyper bull case scenario I try to find the most points of Confluence or areas where you can match up things like uh FIB levels or moving averages or pivots or SRS or whatever it may be. you want to find the most Confluence between a bunch of different things as possible and one where you have a little bit of Confluence is this falling trend line where you can get a touch point on the weekly from zero three. January you get another touch point of 28 March and you get another touch point right here on 15. August Uh, if we were to follow alongside the very very hyper bullish Trend Uh, we could see us come all the way up to 412.80 and this is ultimately where we will set will set, would set a lower high. If you're gonna take a more bearish approach which is continuation of the bear market, right? It looks something like this in a hyper scenario, we tap that level reject, come down. uh, test out some lower lows. it's possible, right? I'm not going to try and predict the future right now. Flow looks pretty bullish I Mean we got a lot of uh, bullish premium rocking into the market right now. We'll get into this in more detail as we continue through the video, but something to keep an eye on? right? there is Confluence right here on that 786 and the levels I'm taking from you can see or the top right here the ones at 432, the Bottom's at 347.87 Um, that 786 does line up with that lower high trend line and I can't see that making some sort of sense. Uh, in terms of likelihood I Think this is one of the least likely scenarios. Uh, you'd have to have a pretty crazy move and just based on how the chart looks right now I don't see it as very feasible could happen so we're gonna keep an eye on it. More likely, however, is that we reject And the reason I think that is once we go over to the daily chart, you're going to see, uh, that there's a major level coming up here. On top of this, we do have uh, volume on descending bars right? And what I mean by this is if you look at the weekly, you can see that, uh, this breakout technically speaking, on the weekly time frame was on lower volume than the pullback that we got the week prior. Now the more important thing to me is when we go over the daily, you're going to see we got volume that was necessary to break over that very key level 390. But I Do think this means we're going to come back down and retest that level I Think that's important and the reason why uh is it's not a very convincing Push by buyers For me to believe that on a weekly perspective in the next five days, we're not going to come back down to retest 390. I Wanted to see that Weekly bar of volume higher than the previous weekly bar of volume and it's quite frankly, we didn't get it right. So I think there's a pretty high likelihood that we come back to retest some of these uh, key levels, right? 390 To me, still a key level I Do think there's a good chance we come back down to it and uh, if and we're going to show you this on the daily if this ends up coming to fruition, it makes a lot of sense based on Confluence of other levels. So what I'm going to do here is to show you another point of Interest which is the 200 EMA on The Daily time frame. If you want to get this for yourself right, all you got to do is go to indicators, type in uh EMA you're gonna get your your moving average exponentially. Just click on this. uh and then what you want to do is just come over to settings, inputs and then put in your length. And for me, I'm using the 200. Uh, I like to leave on my red you label yours whatever color you'd like to, but very, very useful, right? And this is going to act as sort of a level of resistance we could imagine. for uh, the Spy right? We're approaching that very rapidly in what looks like a rising wedge and what also lines up with uh, pretty close to another major Sr flip from the weekly time frame. And why do I think this is a major Sr flip? Well, if you look at uh levels here, you're at 405 80 I Think this is a major pivot It lines up with one toe tap, two toe Taps on the weekly time frame here to come over here. Another toe tap? Uh, another toe tap. Another toe tap, right? and I can imagine another toe tap is going to line up here on that 405. Um, it's another five dollars above, which is a pretty drastic difference, but it is something to keep in mind. And I did have a little range here, which is why you see that box as compared to just a flat out level. So just reiterate 405 80. think a pretty major pivot level. Um, and it does line up pretty close to that 200. Right now, the 200 is trading at 401.59 So realistically, I could see us coming anywhere between this little range right here between 401.59 up to even as high as 405 80.

I Can see that making some sort of sense and if you were to take a fit and this is actually pretty interesting if you were to be preemptive and try, try to predict what may happen in the future. if you were to take a Fib and the easy way to know how to draw them is, you just move forward right? You want to start from the bottom and progress forward. Let's just say that this is our top right. That 200 EMA it's going to line up with the 382 right here at that major level that 950 weekly pivot level where we have this major Sr flip touch Point Toe tap Toe tap Toe tap toe tap. You can see how major this 390 level is. It's gonna give us that retest opportunity. Uh, and even better if we were to come all the way up here to 405 which I think is another pretty major toe tap area 382 Uh, actually this would be the two three six 236 winds up Square on the nuts with uh, this level right the 390 55 level. So interesting I think worth keeping in mind and I can see that making sense. So sort of what I'm looking to see is this this Rising wedge which can you know has Confluence with the 200 EMA which has Confluence with this key area right here where we have a Fib at the 707 uh to act as sort of a push down point to retest 390 and ultimately come back up for what I think are going to be uh, you know, more highs right? I Think that makes a lot of sense on The Daily time frame. You can also see that we push for newer highs on what is actually lower volume. This is uh, you can think of it in a very simple way. I think we have like voting power right? So when you have lower voting power When there's less uh, votes to back the move. It essentially just means that there are people sitting on the sidelines waiting to see uh, if there's gonna be a better opportunity and that to me says Hey buyers are probably waiting for some sort of a pullback which makes sense right? If you look at the chart we are pretty excited and this is this has been a very Hefty move. We were up one percent uh, Friday five and a half percent Thursday and this is coming off of a two percent red day. So I mean these are just very very major moves without any sort of drawback. If you're to, you know, very take the take the range. That's a 6.8 move which is pretty damn crazy right? Uh, so I think buyers are waiting a bit, they're waiting for that push back down I Think you know this Rising wedge breaks. We test out that 405-ish region. the 200 and 401 to 405 being that sort of top come back down to retest 390 and then in the bullish scenario, we continue for more, right? And I don't know how long it's gonna take. Maybe it takes, you know? I'd be surprised if it takes this long. but if it takes a month, there is Confluence of quite a few different levels right? this. Uh, this downtrend. Toe tap. Toe Tap Toe tap. This will be the next toe tap does line up with a 707 which is coincidentally May I add exactly where we talked in the previous couple pushes. right? If you were to take your top right here, it's between the 707 and the 786 for you to take your top. Uh, based on this, this level, guess what, right? Square on the nut sack of the 707, right? So IMO if we're going to set a lower high, we're not actually going to break out of this downtrend. Your trend is your friend, right? I would imagine it's going to be somewhere between the 707 and the 786 and lo and behold, 707 does line up pretty nicely. This downtrend rights about there uh, which would be 405 and some change the 786 if we have an incredible week, uh, would come all the way up to about 412 bucks. So I would say you know by end of week I think We will have seen 390 at least once and I think we will see 400 at least once. and I think we'll see above 400 uh, at least once. and I think that's uh, that's a lot of range. That's a lot of volatility to to take advantage of you're trying to trade. Um, so keep an eye on that right? I think those are some pretty pretty solid key levels. Pretty pretty easy and actionable levels to keep an eye on as we're moving through the week. Um, so yeah. I Kind of wanted to go over that and to show you guys how there's some confluences that match up with the chart and I think those are those are pretty nice ones. So um, yeah, three two lines up 390. you know I think it would look something like this if you're to come back down Break Um, based on 390, maybe it's a double bottom. Uh, and you push back up to ultimately come up and test this downtrend on that 405 major pivot once again, so makes a lot of sense to me on the weekly, you know I just want to show you where we have some more Confluence right? Uh, you do have another Rising wedge-esque sort of uh, trading pattern taking place within this Rising wedge. and if you're gonna take uh, this part out of the equation which I did I excluded this I looked at this as a fake out breakdown to then come back up and reclaim the wedge. Uh, you have a wedge sort of within a wedge. This to me looks very distributy uh if that's a word meaning I don't like where it's hanging in its trading range as Dave Marina would say whatever things are hanging very high in their trading range, it looks very, uh, distributive to me in nature. and I think that's ultimately going to lead to us coming back down as I mentioned to retest 390 hopefully base and then come back up for some higher highs. um, in a bear case scenario, right? I think 390 is really that that you know sort of Line in the Sand area. Uh, if we break 390, I think bears are going to retake control and you've got a lot of downside. I think the the next Super major pivot area is going to be at that 378 to 380 range. um, where we hung out for a very long time and you can see especially on the hourly time frame how key uh, 378 380 is I Mean let's just look at how much price action we really got here and it's funny how it lines up with that 382 fit. You got a lot of price in between that little little range right here and ultimately I think this is a pretty key little Sr flip and maybe you get a little bass there. but if we break 390 I think ultimately we're going to come back down to 378. I view it as unlikely. uh I think the weekly looks pretty bullish I think the daily looks pretty nice I think it just needs a little retrace and ultimately if we come down to three or two, that's a good case scenario. So um, keep an eye on that. and I think that should provide us some actionability. Uh, just for Confluence Some other areas you know Dxy is coming down to their 200 EMA on The Daily time frame I would expect if it Taps this that it probably gets a bounce. You know more often than not you get bounces off these levels which ultimately would mean you know your inclined to see some sort of pullback on the Spy vix. same thing on the weekly time frame on the weekly vix just barely tickled the pickle of uh, the 200. EMA I Imagine you know coming into this week it might not be a hold, but I think at least an attempt at a bounce. Uh, you know after the Spy is strong and the Market's strong, maybe it breaks that you come down and that should really give us a good idea of where things are going. but um, it is on a 200, right? So I expect some some push, a little bit of range on the vix which is going to, you know, probably bring spy down a little bit. It just makes good sense. Dxy is lining up Vicks is lining up. Uh, spies in a rising wedge I Think it just makes a lot of sense. We get some sort of pullback and in a good case scenario, in a bold case scenario, we bounce off that 390 area so those are areas I'd be looking to take trades base risk. Ultimately, you do what you got to do. That's my game. plan. Those levels I think are important. Um, and let's just continue on. So the next thing that I'm going to go over is just the options Market Data right Market Net flow for this week uh or for the previous week. this is marking the past five days of price action and options. data right has been extremely bullish and a lot of people sort of look at this and they think um, if there's a lot of call Premium that it's a good thing. If there's a lot of put premium then it's a bad thing, right? Put premium means we're probably going down and call Premium means we're probably going up. But I think what's more important is relativity right? Uh, what came before that and how does it compare to sort of the the move in the stock right or in the in the index fund or in the market as a whole right? And to me I think it does look a bit like Bulls are a little too overzealous and you can see that just by the Gap that's been created by cost. Um, if you look at momentum and comparison as an example, momentum is as drastically slowed down in comparison to sort of the Gap that is widened between bulls and bears and this to me is a bit of a signal that we're probably going to get a little bit of a pullback and you look at decks which is Delta exposure uh in the most simple way possible. This is a sort of an indica later in terms of uh, where you can sort of expect price action to move in the coming days and I'd bet you money you know, let's just pull up ES1 as uh, this is Futures by the way, we pull up ES1 quick yeah and we are a little red right? and this is coming off of a very bright green decks. So as a rule of thumb, you know anytime you've got a very high Dex value or a Delta exposure value, it means a lot of people are anticipating a move. the smaller the bar, it means the less people are anticipating a move. Uh, it's less directional right? And what I've found is that when the market is extremely directional, when everybody's thinking the same exact thing, usually the opposite happens, right? It's not not everybody can win in the market and the the dealers know this. The market makers know this, so they just take premium right? They're allowed to do that. This is a casino where they can. If you have a blackjack, they can switch out a 10 and give you a four and give the dealer a blackjack and you just kind of have to suck it up right? And this is a situation where I think that makes a lot of sense. We got a lot of decks two days in a row, an incredible amount of Delta exposure where a lot of people and I would anticipate a lot of retail is anticipating a bullish move. and I think that you know the it, it it. It seems a little preemptive and it seems a little overzealous. and I do think that we're gonna get a pullback. uh in regards to how that data looks I'm pointing the wrong way how that data looks. Uh, but I think even more interesting is where money is starting to flow and I think some people are probably going to like this is out of Health Care and into energy, communication services and consumer discretionary and Tech uh, energy is quite interesting and I think some names that you guys are probably going to uh, want to watch over the coming weeks are things like uh, fuel cell plug? um I could see U.S oil having a pretty decent move. There was another one on my watch list not long ago. Let me just pop this up really quick. I don't know if I still have it I might uh I do actually Fang and uh. Ccj I think will also be pretty interesting stocks to watch coming into this week just based on this. Uh, and anytime you have an increase in flow into any particular sector, you also typically see alongside that better spreads so that's something to keep in mind that I think is going to be pretty interesting. So uh, keep an eye on that Fang You know Fang at sort of these nice highs and the volume on this is very Divergent and I bet I bet you if you look at the RSI on this yeah, you got an RSI Divergence that looks a little bit bearish. you know this to me looks Prime for some sort of a push down and it could be inflow to Fang that that is anticipating a move down. This is a spinning top, right? This is a signal of an upcoming downside move I Don't know. Keep an eye on it, right? Ccj also an interesting one, right? You got to close at 24 44 1.62 Uh, this is a spinning top-esque setup I Didn't even argue almost the gravestone doji. but keep an eye on energy right? I Think energy is going to be pretty interesting. You know we can pull up fields sell real quick. Fuel cell looking real nice and bottomed right. getting a decent little push-up off your plug? maybe? uh as well. Yep, up. five point one? seven percent? Yeah. I bet. Sun W doesn't look too bad either, right? There's there's some nice movers. so if there's things that energy that you've been particularly interested in, but this might be the week to start paying attention. Um, so keep an eye on it I think it's interesting to watch. Lastly, before we get into narratives and uh, things to keep an eye on throughout the week, I did sort of go through the economic calendar and highlight some of the things that I think are interesting, important, and can move the market. and ultimately, uh, being able to move the market is important so that you are able to plan ahead of that and not let that ruin a trade, right? And I've got time stamps alongside these, as well as forecasts, so you can have an idea of, uh, whether or not it's going to positively or negatively impact your trade. um, or the market, right? Bullish, bearish, whatever based on expectations. So as an example, if inflation is forecasted at eight percent, but it comes out of 7.7 as we just you know, recently had a very nice beat. Um, you're gonna have a push up, right? because the market broadly speaking, price. Too much pain in so they gotta unprice, they gotta. They gotta buy to push things back up in the same way. if you're gonna look at forecasts for as an example, let's just pick uh, One thing right? let's pick. Let's pick Uh PPI year over year, right? Let's say the year over year forecast right now is 8.2 percent, but it actually comes in at 7.9 right? That would mean that the forecast and the consensus being roughly the same is probably what's priced in. They're probably gonna have to push things back up right. So keep an eye on that. I Do have this highlighted here if you want to pause the video screenshot it. you certainly can I'll even zoom in so you can read this a little better. Uh, timestamps are attached. Um, these are all the things that I think are coming up. So you've got consumer inflation expectations. The FED speech from 11 30 to 12-ish Uh, PPI month over month and you were yours at 8 30. you know I can keep reading this. But ultimately I think if you pause the video, uh, take a screenshot. Whatever. These are all the things that I think are decently important and can move the markets, so keep an eye on that. Lastly, narratives coming into this week. Um, two big things that that, uh I think are going to matter. This narrative could be used to create a bearish bias. Uh I don't know if you guys are you know, Democratic or republican or whatever. Me myself, uh, I'm more interested in how this is going to move the market. Uh, and I do think there is a narrative that could be spun in regards to Democrats pushing the market? down and I've we've seen this political nonsense before where um, they use. They use politics ultimately just to create a bias and a narrative in which direction things move. I could see them using the Democrats to push things down. Um, whether you agree with you, you know who won or who didn't or this or that right? Ultimately, what matters is narratives and what are these guys going to try to do I think they're going to try me myself I Think they're going to try to use Democrats to, uh, push things down, they're gonna. They're gonna blame them and say it's their fault or whatever. And lastly is FTX Keep an eye on FTX Crypto exchanges all this stuff going on because I I don't know if you guys recall. but in the past week when crypto flushed what happened alongside that right, the Spy came down the broad Market came down. It's uh, it has when crypto flushes 10. Crypto is not the only thing that takes a beat down, right. Spy also takes a beat down broad Market takes a beat down. So while things do look good, right, and they certainly do, things look pretty decent. Uh, old on a large macro perspective, right? Um, if crypto gets really crazy, it's gonna slap things around right. It's gonna push the market down, so don't get too excited yet. Um, because I don't necessarily think we're out of the woods with this crypto stuff with the the SPF stuff and we don't know of any other major exchange is gonna blow up Uh, or even still. Maybe a bank or an institution or a dealer of sorts, right? We know there are a lot of big money players that had exposure to FTX right? And if they blow up as a byproduct, that ultimately is going to, uh, affect the stock market right. So keep an eye on these things. I I Think things look good, but narratives can be used to do whatever needs to be done. So I mean for all I Know they could look at the 200 here on the daily and say yeah, we're going to use this FTX implosion as the narrative to push us from the 200 all the way back down to new lows. I mean would that be likely? I Think no. But is it a possibility? It always is Right you? You can never say never on the stock market? Basically, at any time. Uh, these guys can do some crazy stuff. They've got the the money to move mountains quite literally speaking, and instead they spend that money moving your money over to their their bank account. So just be careful. Um, well. I Don't think we're quite out of the woods yet, especially considering how volatile the situation is with crypto. And lastly, I thought about making an entire video on this. You feel free to let me know In the comments section are my thoughts on the FTX thing. but uh, I'm gonna end the video on this note. you guys tell me if you want a whole video on my thoughts. but um I've been saying for over a year that I I don't like Crypto. uh, for over a year and anytime people had asked me on a stream uh, on Twitter on YouTube or on a video or whatever I would always say the same thing I would say uh that I think crypto is either gonna be the greatest innovation of our lifetimes or the biggest scam of our lifetimes. and I don't want to put my money up to find out, right? So uh, crypto is a little scary, right? I think right now, especially if you if you, uh, are nervous about your money on any exchange. Whatever it is, you should probably just err on the side of caution and wait this storm out opportunity. cost sucks, right? Maybe you can buy lower. Maybe you can sell higher whatever it is with whatever you're holding but me myself I I Don't want to be in a situation where I can't access my funds, so be careful, right? Crypto? uh is a scary thing and if it sounds uh, a little scary, maybe just sit it out right? I guess that's about all I got. so hopefully you pulled some value from this. um, if you enjoy sort of going over the weekly Outlook and and uh levels that I find useful, let me know I I would appreciate that. Uh, and we'll keep doing this in the future. So I guess that's about all I got I'll catch you on the next one. Much lovely taps.

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