Off. We got an announcement uh about a gamestop four to one split. So the the official numbers are in i made a dumb joke uh. Justin gamestop.

Is about be four times as sexy and cool as it was before get it because four for one stock split. Sir i'll go home now bad joke dad joke dad joke for sure. But the uh the good news is that that is going to happen. Four for one stocks.

But in case. You're curious uh. One share will now become four shares stock price will become a quarter of what it is now uh and that's what you can expect so based on that i wanted to spend the majority of the time talking about uh farm seed today uh because that was pretty interesting and i think that it is going to be applicable moving forward uh. And this is a real world example that we can use uh and i figured we should talk about it so guys welcome to trace traders.

But still be seriously let's get into it today i'd like to talk about pharmacy. Today pharmacy happen if you'd like to know where this stuff happens. I will actually leave a link to this website uh in the description box down below federal reservegov forward slash news events forward slashcounterhtm this gives you an idea of what you can expect every single day. And today uh.

We were expecting the pharmacy minutes. Meeting from june 14th to 15th to be released. And what this was going to do for us was give us an idea of what we can expect for raid hikes. Well we got uh the expectation.

And i thought i could draw it out in the simplest way possible uh in the way that the cycle of the market sort of works and the way that i you know perceive it to work. And that is a transition from uncertainty to certainty back to uncertainty back to certainty back to uncertainty back to certainty. Uh. And this is a prime example of it pharmacy.

Minutes. Right so. What happened today what happened during pharmacy minutes. Well we had an uncertainty the uncertainty was what will farm see hint towards for basis point hikes in the future rate hikes in case.

You do not know in the most simple way possible are the fed's attempt at lowering inflation. What they do is raise interest rates across the country this affects. A whole variety of different things uh. But one of those things being uh.

Let's just say mortgages or lines of credit or perhaps. You'd like to take out a business loan interest rates are just going to go up. It's going to be more expensive to borrow cash compared to how it was right people were trying to guess how this is going to price in how basis points are going to be cooked up by the fed because this affects the economy. And that's going to affect the stock market.

So what happens based on that uncertainty is big money institutions banks. All the big boys will price in their guess they try to take an educated guess on what they think. The fed is actually going to do so essentially what they're doing is saying. This is our expectation of what the fed is going to do based on what we know and based on the people we talked to if you ask me i think a lot of these big boys get the talk to politicians.

And to fed members into the sec and to the government and try and make a pretty educated guess right like a little bit of a head start probably. But based on that they make a guess and they price in the stock market in either direction. If they think it's going to be 75 basis points. They will sell stock or short sell stock down to whatever level.

They think is appropriate to price that in right. They think. It's going to be less they're probably trying to push it up that's what they do right they guess they try to take an educated guess what the certainty will be well. When certainty hits.

It's judgment day right they have to essentially uh either correct stay the same uh or correct right either up or down pharmacy. Numbers came out this is the certainty. This is the example that i would give and the effect is they had to redirect price based on expectation so if they're expecting 75 basis points uh and they announced 50 right they wouldn't price them probably too much in a 50 hits. They pushed the stock price up pretty significantly for the spot.

They expected 75. But they announced 50 to 75. Well you can expect maybe a little push up because 50 is a possibility right now we can talk about what actually happened today because this is the transition back and forth between uncertainty and certainty today. The expectation was 50 to 75 basis points.

They announced 50 and 75 basis points. Based on that the price. It was right stocks have no more room for downside because they already priced in the expectation of 75 basis points. So based on that since there already expected it they got it right stocks.

We only have a whole lot of room to go down in the very short term stocks go up right i wanted to mention this because i think it's applicable moving forward. And it is for a lot of different things. And the next one to me is going to be inflation july 13th. One thing that i'm going to be paying very close attention to as we come closer to july 13th.

Is what the expectation is for inflation. You see if you come back to uh. The inflationary data which you're going to see is. That.

85. 83. 86 has been the last three. Months.

So maybe. Hypothetically speaking the expectation. Is. 88 right let's just say that 88.

Is what the big boys up top are thinking is going to be inflation for june whether it's right or not which i don't think. It is i don't think i don't know what freaking metric. They use to actually measure it doesn't really make sense to me. But whatever the actual uh number is is less significant than what's expected right i know what you're thinking.

I thought the same thing at first uh if inflation is over eight percent for three months. Why wouldn't stocks just go down well because it doesn't work that way stock market doesn't make sense. It's sort of a fallacy. It's a it's uh.

Oh let's just kind of game a little bit okay. It's gonna be based on uh whatever we think things should be right. It's not a game of bullish bearish news. It's a game of uncertainty uncertainty and guessing right right so as we.

Come towards july. 13th of 88. Percent. Was the expectation.

I'm just making up a number based on trend. Right but it actually came out at. 82. Percent what would you think would happen they would price an 88.

Percent. That'd be the uncertainty certainty would hit they would have overpriced to the. Downside and they would. Correct up if.

88 was the expectation they priced for that but then 95. Percent. Came out they'd push stocks down right maybe. I changed colors make that a little bit easier to see they pushed stock price.

Down if the 88. Was the expectation and then eight point eight percent came out. I would honestly expect probably about this or about that right one of these two things very little movement. It wouldn't be a crazy sexy day.

But this would probably be about what would happen expectation was met no more room for downsides so it either trade sideways or it would start to push up pretty slowly uh. That's what i think would actually happen now if you ask me right and i don't know what he did but i'm going to tell you anyways. I think that uh that bears perma bears in the market have been pretty greedy. It feels to me like bears think.

This is just going to go down and down and down and down and down forever and ever and ever and ever. But i don't think that's the case. I think that we are due for a face ripper of a rally within this bear market and i think that time is going to come as we continue to tighten up. Now inflation is coming up july 13th.

And i think that the ultimate cherry on top to really smoke. Some bears in this bear market now i want to make this painfully clear. I don't think the bear market's over. I do think there are going to be lower lows in the next 365 days for the spy.

That we have seen at 362. I am going to be very surprised if that's not the case. But nonetheless along the way i do think that we're gonna see a bear market rally and a face ripper similar to what we watched back here july 13th. Inflation.

Could be the setup for that now. I don't think. The fed's been aggressive enough to combat inflation in the way that we need i think they need to do more. But uh.

They have done a handful of 50 bps. 25. Bps and now 75 bps rate. Hikes and i think you will start to watch the very beginning of either.

A stagnation. Which is a slowdown essential of inflation or b a slight downturn. And if you do get a slight downturn. I think that stocks will rip faces off does that mean that inflation is combat it does that mean it's all over does that mean.

It's all done no i mean what you what you've witnessed a lot over the previous couple months. Is for example uh economic relief packages. Getting sent to ukraine. Billions of dollars hundreds of billions of dollars getting sent to ukraine.

I think. It was like 800 billion and maybe even a second one if i remember correctly somebody to chat let me know or in the comment section. Let me know uh. If that's the case.

But nonetheless you know there's there's still issues with our economy. There's still problems going on. But this would be a good sort of uh pick me up that could allow for a push up especially. If expectation is higher than reality uh.

So that's something to keep an eye on i i think that you're coming to dangerous territory. You're coming to a point in which the spy is going to start really testing some of these shorts out some of these perma bears. Who have really been uh going against the economy for for some time now that's something i'm personally watching for and one last thing. I want to say.

I said this in my live stream. Today. Uh is amc a lot of people get tired of me saying this man. I'm gonna say it now again.

I i've hounded and having it had an abrish and preach and preached that i personally believe that amc is going to rally when the bear market ends that whenever. The spy starts going back up into a bull trend. A actual bull trend. Not just a bull market rally.

You're gonna watch the way that amc trade become significantly more bullish and i'm going to add stakes to the line right now if amc does not rally alongside the bull market when that time comes. I'm going to shave. My head my eyebrows and my beard and i'll keep it that way for a month. I made that bet on twitch for something else.

But i'm gonna make it here as well i don't want to have no eyebrows. I don't want to have no hair. I don't want to have no beard that sounds awful. But that's how confident i am that the bear market is making a significant difference in the way that amc is trading right now.

And it bear market everything goes down a bull market. You've got more individuality. You've got more chance for stock to go up. And i do think that amc the company has great technical data.

It's got uh improvement on fundamentals. It's got a significantly uh large improvement on fundamentals and when the time comes for the bull market to start again which i think is going to be between six months to a year. Myself right i think they're going to be pretty close to being cash flow positive. And that'd be a pretty good combination.

If you ask me so i wanted to add that on there wanted to add those stakes. That's what i have to say today uh you can apply that same sort of concept to inflation and cpi data when it comes out uncertainty uncertainty uh weigh these two things and that's going to i think help sort of take a guess at what's going to happen. We did this live today during the stream uh and it helped me out at least. I have a good good idea of where things were going to go you watch an immediate dip off of the pharmacy news.

I expected it to go up uh you got a fade in volume volume fades as it's going up. You can expect this to be a trap pulls back a little bit moves up at the end of the day. That's sort of what you got right slightly green day for the spy uh and that's that so let's work out for the video. Appreciate you guys uh school school gamers catch you the next one as always much lovely tips in peace.