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Amc coming into tomorrow is green by 4.76 up 84 cents on the day and has formed what appears to be a inverse head and shoulders. Neckline breakout check this out shoulder shoulder head break out of this uh. This downside level of resistance. This is actually a falling wedge, nice falling wedge breakout by the way, and it's coming up to hopefully retest again, this red box check this out this supply zone at 1986, up to about 20.35 cents or so is the the big bar to step over.

That could really get us back up into that 23 24 dollar range, where i personally believe the next supply zone to be a supply zone by the way, essentially being a point which algorithms, computers, uh institutions, even market makers, in terms of options, price pinning uh - will Will have selling pressure or buying pressure depending on if the price is above or below those specific boxes uh, they essentially come from consolidation points before big moves up or big moves down. You can see this move down right here, consolidation right before that this would then be classified as a supply and or demand zone depending on where the price is trading. I mark supply zones as red boxes and demand zones as green boxes just so that they're easy uh easy to see. So this right here in my eyes would be some form of a demand zone right, very simple, stuff right here, so coming into earnings uh tomorrow.

What i am looking for and what you, what you really would like to see, is obviously a continuation of the growth quarter over quarter over quarter over quarter that we've seen coming out of uh coming out of amc and we've had some great uh great movies that Have come out here as of late, that have really boosted sort of the box office numbers that i think are going to continue uh the growth that we have seen out of uh out of amc. So what do we? What do we have here right? This is the estimated earnings per share, eps uh. For short, if you ever see eps, that's what that actually stands for uh for q4, which is set to release tomorrow. Uh they're expecting uh a minus point: one nine uh cents right, negative 19.333, uh, whatever, whatever whatever and uh.

What you're looking for is a beat right. You want to see a continuation. You want to see a beat coming out of uh out of amc to see. I i personally believe a pretty decent move right.

I remember they released pretty decently early uh, positive ebitda and i think that's a good inkling and a good sign. I don't see any possible reason why the executives and adam aaron would have chose essentially to release that information early if it wasn't, because they believe that you're going to see a really solid q4 coming out of the company right. Maybe maybe they just wanted to get people hyped up, amped up or whatever right, but i i i think that you're gon na be looking at something nice. I think that that's actually possible uh, you see.

Mass mandates are starting to lift in various states. For for, for differing reasons right, i saw the california, according to unusual whales, whatever source that he got his information from uh the california schools are starting to lift mass mandates off of students that go to school, which is a good sign that just shows you that There's uh there's less limitations for people to go out into public to go to movie theaters you you're, gon na see movie theaters continue to open up the way that they have so that they can continue to uh, make more money more revenue and continue to grow. In the way that they have, which is uh, obviously only going to help their earnings right, uh so we'll see we'll see, i think that you also this is just uh. This is my personal opinion right if i was to to rank this in terms of uh reliability.

Uh i'd put i'd, probably put it about here right. If this is like absolute fact - and this is speculation - i think that i'm probably about here. I think that adam aaron a.a during this earnings call will likely release some form of news, not even just about the the the financials behind the company, but in terms of future moving forward. Uh different avenues of approach, they're going to take to make revenue and or nfts, i think they're going to talk more about nfts, and i also think they're going to talk more about potential future revenue in some new way shape for more capacity.

So i'm going to be watching for that, i'm going to be watching for that. Specifically, i would like to see him talking about uh expanding upon his nft uh situation and what they're going to do to continue with uh future revenue, new uh growth, essentially new business strategies and uh debt. That is big. This is the very let me let me just be absolutely clear with you guys.

Debt is not a bad thing right if, if managed properly, but if there's anything in the world, that's holding back amc from a fundamental perspective which believe it or not is is how shorts get a thesis behind a stock right. Stronger fundamentals means you have less reason to short of stock. Weaker fundamentals mean you have more reason to short stock there's a reason, in my opinion, that amc has been uh chronically shorted between 15 and 20 percent for over 12 months. It's uh.

It comes down to debt, not necessarily the fact that they're not going, i don't think they're going out of business. I think most shorts recognize that at this point, but i would like to see that debt uh have some form of a strategy plan. That is, that is probably my one. Big critique is uh.

Yes, they are going to be pushing to the right. They're gon na have much more time to pay off a lot of the debt that they have on their books right now, which is great right. That's a way to be able to strategize and uh. They actually lower their interest rates.

Uh they've got more time. They can use their cash on hand to expand the business in the way that they want uh. But if you get rid of this debt right, you get rid of a short thesis altogether, because it's very obvious, unless there's another pandemic in the next 12 months or or covert, goes through something absolutely crazy. Uh that there's really no risk of uh going out of business or bankruptcy, we'll just write bank rupt c.

This is really off the table. Bankruptcy doesn't make any sense whatsoever, so uh debt revenue, uh and nfts. I want to see them talk about that during this. This next moving uh earnings call, and i guess time will tell on what they decide to uh to do but amc overtakes data, twenty point: four: five percent: current short interest of free float comes out to about a hundred four point.

Seven five million total shares about the same right. It really hasn't changed a whole lot and this comes down to utilization. There's really not any shares available to lend any shares available to borrow they're all out on the loan uh and this cost to borrow maximum slash average uh is sort of a level that you'd like to watch as we continue on. It's been slowly riding an uptrend.

Slowly, ever so slowly this this light green line down here you can see 1.04 percent coming up to about 1.17, so it's been slowly increasing and today you see it at 1.32, which would actually be a drastic increase as compared to 1.17, as we have seen here. Uh in the past, so we're gon na get rid of these two lines here, really quick, and i also want to look at the on loan average days. This is beginning to climb again - and this is an important metric - that i'd actually take one second to discuss. 73.59 average days on loan right - this is actually very fascinating.

Why does this matter? Why does this average days on loan matter? We're at 100 utilization we're at 100 utilization and this is actually a useful metric to track because the longer that you're at 100 utilization, the more likely uh, statistically speaking, looking at evidence backed by actually uh uh collegiate studies right very, very intense studies. Looking at some data behind uh four share recalls when, when a 100 utilization is on the table uh, you typically see those shares get recalled as weeks past forcibly by the lenders. So the lend d will have to return the shares if the lender goes all right. All right baby, it's time to pay up, give me my shares back.

I want him back doesn't matter what the price is at does not matter, and that can force a essentially uh a force cover effect. And if you see this average day on loan, all of a sudden start to drop at the exact same time as utilization drops drastically, you know what happened to me. That's a force share recall so i'm gon na be watching for that and watching this continue to grow up right. Going up going up going up going up as utilization has been maxed out.

This to me is essentially just saying yep. This uh does appear to be the case unless there are any shares that are returned, which there haven't been right. They've been about the same for quite some time now. This should continue to climb utilization should drop off if this begins to drop off and if it doesn't well, then you should ask yourself a question in terms of what's actually happening there, and this is uh.

Perhaps the last thing that i'd like to say regarding the ortex data, when you, when, when you talk about naked short selling, right naked short selling, this is uh. This is this is a metric that happens in specific situations right. It comes down to this high demand. One box no supply now.

What do i mean by this? If there's high demand for a short position, for instance, let's just say that uh the stock is going up, which it is right now and there are shorts that want to add to their positions average down. So that they're not getting beat up too bad right, there's some demand for the stock. All right, you can check that box no supply. This would come down to are there shares available to lend or to borrow 100 utilization, currently right, which is uh, basically meaning that all shares that are available to lend or to borrow, are out on loan or are being borrowed.

This is a situation in which there's very low, minimal or no supply right. So if these two boxes are met, if these two things have happened, there's high demand, there's no supply and there's somebody out there who wants to short a stock. I've talked about this before and i've always, i always feel bad. I always feel bad because i really don't really know what to say uh in terms of this, but this is a situation which naked short selling is a very realistic possibility.

These are these are points in time in which, if, if there are people out there short sellers that want the short stock illegally uh, they do it, they do it. I think the majority of manipulation and corruption across amc happens in derivatives market. I stand by that and i absolutely will, but this is a situation in which you can actually see this take place. This is uh.

This could actually happen. You could see this naked short selling right now. Uh with high demand, no supply 100 utilization, no shares available to borrow uh. If it comes down to it, you know this is where it would make sense.

This is where it would make sense. Absolutely.

By Trey

28 thoughts on “A lot of things are lining up…”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Melinda says:

    What if they LENT out shares and want them back ie. recall BUT they dont even own the shares?!?!?!

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The Winners says:

    Future revenue includes literal " AMC Naked Shorts" in all sizes both women and men's style just in time for summer ๐ŸŒž๐ŸŒž

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Leo's LoopHoles says:

    Digging the new beard! Love the analytics ๐Ÿค™

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JC 13 says:

    BankruptCy Trey lol not with an S ๐Ÿ˜‚

    Never change Trey! Appreciate you brother ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿป

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hope Carlson says:

    People can say a lot of this but ones things for sure; If Trey has a positive headline, it's never just for click bait.
    LFG!! ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JahonCross says:

    I'm green on my puts thanks dumb apes for your tendies

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jay A says:

    Unfortunately we already had good earnings before and nothing happened. So will wait…

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DFS Straight to the point says:

    Trey u should just go make porn or something bud Iโ€™m sure u can handle a couple meaty men

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jenghis Khan says:

    Adam Aaron is a quack and trey is a clown telling us 500 million stock dilution was a good idea smh. I donโ€™t feel sorry about your health situation no more clown ๐Ÿคก

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Roger Lafontaine says:

    Not sure how people can still watch you, seriously…

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars BKLYN34 says:

    This shit better not tank on earnings or we in some trouble ! We better get at least at 10-15% rip !

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars UGONZ Xanax says:

    Thanks for the update video trey much love brother

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Degih frivod says:

    it requires money to make money this is the best secret I have ever heard we don't make money we make multiple money

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Paul Dunkirk-Greenbaum says:

    Did you see the trailer for the new HBO documentary Gaming Wall Street? You should talk about it!

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DtW says:

    No shares to borrow but they found some anyway lmao

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Izzy G says:

    AMC HAS THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS AND TITAN HAS THE KNEES AND TOES! LFG

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Golden Goddess says:

    Youโ€™re looking well today, love to see it ๐Ÿฅฐ Thank you for all that you do.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Bback24/7 says:

    We can easy hit 10k 50k ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’Ž not selling at xxx $ not been holding so long for just do what the HF want us to do let's go apes ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’Ž

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Bback24/7 says:

    Not selling 1 AMC sher under 50k ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿคฒ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’Žโค๐Ÿ’Žโค๐Ÿ’Žโค๐Ÿš€

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TestE CallE says:

    Not much sense in worrying about Covid when Putin is gonna go brrrrrrrr

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars RED X says:

    California, Oregon, Washington all indoor mask mandates removed by the 15th of march. I live in Oregon.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars William Newlin says:

    Yeah a lot of things have been โ€˜lining upโ€™ since october ๐Ÿ˜

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rae Mil says:

    Trey just can't help himself with the line. We all know it doesn't matter in AMC.

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tommy Lee L91 says:

    "A lot of things are lining up"

    Would it happen to be the pockets of AMC influencers?

    Still holding before 8.01

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hazardous Condition says:

    Like a spreadsheet…you can't fill a spreadsheet with garbage data and get real information…read charts of manipulated data and your results will be garbage.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TelFiRE says:

    โ€œHead and shouldersโ€ โ€” Itโ€™s a meme indicator. Start keeping track of how often people are right when they justify a prediction with head and shoulders. In my experience, itโ€™s less than 50%.

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Darkstar says:

    One thing for sure, spider man no way home in Q4 was a godsend.

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Royal Pain says:

    Bankruptcy * haha minor spelling error but all good keep the info coming

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