It's a strange day today the market was green, amc was green, small mid caps were green, pretty much everything was green and j-pop finally told the truth as wild as that sounds uh. We heard him say that uh that that rates should have been raised earlier and that there will likely be recession, but that's not what i'd like to talk about. More importantly, is that amc took stake in another company. Amc had a great day today was up 10 up three percent now in the after hours uh, and this is coming off of a partnership.

I shouldn't say partnership, but a buy-in is stake in ncmi and this company in case you did not know, as i did not know until today is national city media national center media is up uh drastically in the after hours. Right now, we're gon na talk about that guys over the choice. Trades, we're freaking talk faster, don't skip classical problems by standing, i'm gon na find surprises for experts, so they're gon na say the green salt. Let's get into the meat and potatoes of this uh.

This uh egg, salad, huh, so starting off with a solid sweet, came up from unusual whales. 55 minutes ago i was actually gon na discuss the the jay powell talk today and i'm just gon na make a second video for that that'll go up uh, either tonight or tomorrow morning. You guys, let me know in the comment section what you prefer, but he announced uh that that amc bought, i choked on my spit a steak in ncmi. You can also read this here in this article uh.

It says, as such, national center media has jumped 13.1. After hours, tuesday, as a filing indicates theater chain, amc, entertainment now has a six pointed stake uh in the company, and you can actually see a greater overall move off of that now up 18, the after hours in amc up 2.7 off that news pretty solid. Well then, i asked myself what the heck do these guys do i've never heard of ncm i've never heard of national center media group. This doesn't sound like a sexy business uh and it isn't.

That's that's the truth of the matter, but i do actually believe this is a beautiful buy and then it's a under valued stock that adam aaron can make a pretty good penny off of as along with amc. So what you see here, if you read, i went to their website, you can find this uh on weebles it's attached to. It is that national city media is essentially an advertising company uh that has sort of partnerships and brand deals with uh different movie theater companies across the country, ncm's uh no lovey pre-show is presented exclusively in 57, leading national and regional theater circuits, including amc, cinemark and Regal, entertainment group, so that's pretty straightforward, not a sexy business. They make money when movies are doing well, they, i would assume, get some form of a cut off of uh movie income uh they make money when movies do well right.

You can see this by looking at their overall uh earnings reports when financials come out pull up here. Ncmi you see this cut off not doing very well their their total income, total revenue, six million fifteen point, seven five point four and then 2021 comes around movie. Theaters really start popping again and that's 14 31, 63, 35 - very similar to amc. Let's see 119 160 248 million dollars for q3 four and one from 20, 000 2020 to 2021, then a drastic increase so there's.

Obviously, a very direct correlation into uh advertisement deals alongside movie theaters doing well, not a sexy business and, if anything, uh. The downside that i can think of is i like to sort of poke holes in uh, thesises and stuff like that. Is you don't have a really good hedge here right? If movie theaters are doing poorly uh, then you would assume that this company, alongside would do poorly national center media incorporated. However, if you really do truly believe that movie theaters are going to succeed and then movie theaters will get better, then correspondingly, this company should improve alongside of it, but there are some drastic differences and i highlighted those.

So if i was to bring you over to the the sort of comparison i drew this up for you, this is ncmi next to amc and i've got the following categories: total assets, liabilities, cash market, cap and net income net income is how much they're bringing home After taxes and after they pay everything out and that sort of thing, this is the total that they're left with, and i also have multiples uh sort of marked here as well. You can see that amc has a 12.5 x next to it, and that is because it has 12.5 times more assets than ncmi, so i want to do a little comparison. How does this stack up? How does amc stack up the ncmi? Well, as i just pointed out, the they've got it: the amc's got 12.5 times more assets. Uh than ncmi they've got 821 million dollars of assets.

This comes down to things that they can physically and tangibly sell uh if they needed cash in a very dire situation. Maybe this is equipment. Maybe this is technology. Maybe this is real estate uh, maybe it's land.

It could be a lot of things, but they've they've assessed that there's 821 million dollars of total assets, uh cool. Let's make note of that liabilities. I find this to actually be very uh. Interesting intriguing they've got 57 million dollars of liabilities.

My sourcing for this is coming from the latest uh. The latest earnings call q1 of 2021. uh. They go over all these different things and if you come over to their balance sheet, what you're going to find is that their total liabilities is 57.7 million dollars which is lower than it was in q4.

That's that's actually drastically better than it was in q4. Uh. Q4, they went up from q3, but i really like to see that metric going down uh long-term debt down here 1.14 billion dollars. If you're to compare that to amc, you see that amc's long-term debt is 5.56 billion dollars.

Uh, so amc's got drastically more long-term debt. They've got drastically more drastically less uh, oh yeah. I've got that backwards. Amc's got more long-term debt, they've got more long-term uh liabilities, their current liabilities and i've got this marked out, which you're gon na find here is that ncmi has 29.3 times less uh debt.

If you're just look at their total liabilities as compared to amc interesting, let's make note of that 113 million dollars of cash on hand as compared to amc's 1.16 billion amc has 10 times more cash on hand. However, this is enough to take care of their short-term current liabilities, they're 113 million dollars in cash granted that amc's short-term liabilities uh are coming out to 1.67 billion, and it's not the total uh total debt they're long-term debt right uh, but there's not quite enough cash. On hand - and this is uh 10.2 times more as compared to that 29.3 x on total liabilities uh. What i find to be the most interesting, why i make point of this, is that uh ncmi is an issue where they're sitting pretty good in terms of assets compared to liabilities.

I i think they've got a decent amount of cash on hand and they're, not a really a dire situation right now, uh so interesting to see market cap 114 million dollars as compared to amc's - and this is probably the most interesting metric uh 6.65 billion, which is 58 times larger than national center media group right very interesting net income negative - and this is the the downside to both uh amc and uh national center media. However, it is trending in a good direction. You can actually come and check this out if you're looking at amc's income statements - and you want to look at the net income uh - you can see that uh. This is drastically better than it was two years prior and then overall, you are making improvements, and when adam aaron said you know, uh in the previous earnings call that hey this earnings might not be as good as the last one.

This is probably what he meant a little less net income and they had a little less total revenue. However trending in the right direction, you can say the same thing about national city media. They actually had a profitable quarter for q4 of 2021. They were profitable.

Four million dollars this quarter, they're negative 45 million. You look back. This is drastically better uh than some previous quarters and they actually managed their uh their expenses pretty well, as this metric has been less volatile than you would have seen in amc, which had uh. Basically, a negative one: billion dollar quarter two quarters in a row uh.

So why talk about all this in the first place? Well, i said this before. I really got into the details of this the sauce, the gravy so to speak, but i do think that national center media is pretty drastically undervalued and if i had to take a guess at why adam aaron bought this, he probably saw a couple of different things. Why amc got into this? In the first place? I should clarify adam and not buy this. It was amc that made the investment, but obviously adam aaron kind of uh, manned the helm.

First thing that really really cheap price. I think this is uh. This is an all-time low. The company is currently trading at a buck 72 and it was at 1.45 at close right, very, very cheap stock.

These are monthly candles, as you can see up here, and it isn't a falling wedge pattern now. I don't know if adam aaron pays attention to technical analysis and all that sort of uh fun jazz but uh. What you're gon na find is is this is just a cheap stock, and this is typically a reversal pattern that you could see play out over the next six months to a year. Interesting next thing, uh number two is: i believe that adam aaron's, making a pretty big bet that amc is going to trump all other movie theater companies uh.

Why? Why would you say that? Why would you do that or it could even be, that he believes that movie theaters as a whole are going to grow and come off the pandemic very well uh this? This really is a key thing to think about, because this really isn't a hedge against your company. If anything, this is an extension of your company, uh and you're kind of doubling down on your thesis that movie theaters are going to uh, continue to improve and continue to evolve, and that amc will make the best overall movie experience uh for those who want to Go to uh the movies right. Couldn't trade on a buck. 45.! That's number two! I i really do think that he he has a lot of faith in it.

This is sort of amc's way of making a statement that they have a lot of faith that movie theaters, specifically theirs are going to continue to improve uh. And, lastly, this is more speculative. You know i should really point this out. This is me speculating something that could potentially happen.

Lastly, is if netflix cuts a deal with amc now, we've talked about this before there's been a lot of rumors, nothing confirmed uh, but there's been rumors about. You know what would happen if netflix were to partner with amc and what that would look like and to me what it looks like is: premiering netflix, exclusive movies on the big flat screen tv with the nice cinemax uh 500 foot long screen the nice subwoofers popcorn Comfortable seats chairs all that sort of stuff uh if they were to do that right, that would be profitable for amc. That would be a good thing for netflix. Both parties would uh essentially - and hopefully you know be in a better shoe because of that.

Well, let's think about this for a second netflix as shitty as it is done, uh is a profitable company right they're down drastically and this i can't believe this chart man. This thing is wicked. Then we've gone from 700 all the way down to 162.. If you're.

Looking at this on the monthly, this looks like a massive ass uh crash of some sort, but anywho uh. If netflix is able to lock in some sort of deal, or i should say if amc is able to lock in some sort of deal with uh netflix. What would happen is you had advertisers at the beginning, just as you always have trailers and that sort of thing uh, you would see that ncmi would make money with netflix. Now, what's the thing about netflix that i just mentioned, they are profitable, despite how poorly they're doing right now uh the last corner was 1.6 billion dollars of net income.

352. 1.45. 1.35. 1.71.

454. 789. You can just you can see the overall trend right. They have made a lot of money.

Their net income is extremely extremely high uh, which means more money for advertisers, which overall would be a good thing for ncmi now. This is very speculative. This last part uh, but i do think it'd be in the best interest of netflix to cut a deal with amc, and if that was to happen, i think that uh, it would obviously benefit ncmi, who has some sort of brand deal with amc and amc. Having a stake in ncmi would would benefit uh from their net income, going up ultimately biggest problem that i have, and i'm gon na say this right off.

The bat is uh. They are a net negative uh company, along with amc net negative company, but it is trending in the right direction. Uh. The big thing for me is this huge imbalance, this 58 times larger market cap when the rest of these are drastically lower variables.

The total assets 12.5 times higher cash on hand only 10 times higher uh liabilities over on ncmi's side of the table is actually better. I would say that that ncmi is pretty drastically undervalued. If you look at the the market cap, i think this should really be more in the realm of uh 800 million to a billion dollar company. If you were to divide that by their total float, which, if i remember correctly, was about 60 million total shares.

78 million total shares uh. I could see this being like a like a six or seven dollar stock. I could uh. I think it's going to take time for this to play out, got to be honest, but adam aaron bought it at hymc uh.

With that long-term vision in mind - and i think he likely did the same thing and that amc did the same thing with ncmi uh - i'm actually gon na take a stab at this. I am gon na buy stake in ncmi. I'm gon na look at this. As a long-term investment, not as a trade and i'm gon na buy what i believe to be an undervalued company, i think this is an undervalued company uh.

So i'm gon na i'm gon na i'm gon na snag it and i got ta say i didn't buy into hymc. I want you guys to know that i have no stake in hymc. I still don't uh but ncmi. I think i'm uh.

I think i'm gon na i'm gon na take a run at it uh this. This genuinely feels to me, like it's undervalued, and that, if movie theaters continue to improve that this would have probably in relation to amc uh, just based on fundamentals alone, a pretty nice move. Uh last thing: i'm going to show you before we finish off this video is the ortex data for the company. This is more based on the short-term sort of situation.

I would imagine with a chart that looks like that that there are some people - betting against the company, but not a ton - 4.57 percent - current short interest of free float. You had a drastic decrease right here, uh for what seems like no reason i mean the short interest went down and the stock price went down. I might not know much about nothing but uh. This seems kind of goofy.

Nonetheless, that's the metric, that's what you got to work with, so it doesn't look like a squeeze potential play uh for the time being, but it does look like a good value buy. I i i genuinely think just based on fundamentals and uh the fact that this this really is sort of a cheap stock. You could see six to seven bucks uh. This is the risks associated right.

I'm not telling you to buy, i'm not telling you to sell risks associated is that this is very near all-time. Lows has been shopping around trying to get a move back up, and this last hour certainly is going to help right. That 18 gain is certainly going to help. I do not currently have uh any stake in the stock.

I have not bought yet so keep that in the back of your mind, uh, if you'd like to buy make your own due diligence happen, make your own decision. I'm not here to tell you what to do and that's that's kind of what i've got for the video. So overall it's not a sexy buy. I don't think it's uh an incredible sort of uh groundbreaking discovery by adam aaron.

If anything, i think, i think, he's really doubling down in movies. I think he's doubling down on uh the amc experience being one that trumps all other movie theaters and i think he's banking on. You know more than anything that amc is going to generate a lot of revenue and that these guys will benefit from it and then so shall the company it's almost like a like a hedge. You know, uh, you just just accidentally a little extra on the table.

So that's what i got for you guys hope you all enjoyed it. Uh i've got another video coming out quick here, i'm going to talk about the fed, talk uh, you guys! Let me know when you want to come out, i'm going to record it immediately after this, but until the next one i appreciate you as always much lovely taps and peace.