Stock looks pretty good. It actually looks really good amc stock right now the chart chart looks uh magnificent going into q2 earnings. You really can't ask for much uh sort of fluidity strength momentum and stair stepping as we've gotten with amy over the previous. I'd argue two months at this point and right now the price is at a level that is breaching breakout and uh.

I think that this breakout point which we're gonna go over in this video is going to give you a lot of uh green sky to to to get us to where we want to go and that's what i'm gonna talk about here today guys i'm gonna trace trades we're gonna talk fast and just come closer everybody's saying i'm not a five survivor expert. So please take what i say with the grain of salt let's get into this so today. I'm gonna primarily focus on amc and i've got a lot of reason to believe that we're actually in a really good spot. And i know i know i know i don't make a lot of videos about uh about amc.

But i try and focus on when i think there's actually good meat moves on the horizon. I think there's a good neat move on the. Horizon and i don't think it's the 761. That we got today.

I think what the meat move is going to be is a push up to about 20 dollars now i want to start off with this or text data. I don't typically spend a lot of time on ortex data because i don't find it to be that significant and change uh. It usually stays fairly tight. Very very fairly uh similar to what you've seen in the past.

You know right now. You've got 18 short interest. You've got like 25 percent free float on loan utilization's the same costa bar slightly dropped. What i find to be the most interesting.

Though is this there's a metric that that ortex will let you use which by the way i'm not sponsored just like the the website on loan average days. Now this is a metric that has significantly changed and the change in this actually does dictate some concern for the shorts that are presently in amc stock. So if you go back as far actually as as close as june 27th of 2022 simply a month ago. What you would have found is that the average day alone was 90 days at the peak.

You saw about 100 right so to go from 90 days. You know 100 days out of 90 days down to where we actually are. Now which is 554. Days.

55 average days on loan for any share. That's been lent out by a lender whether it be shorted or whether it just be a part of this metric. The free float on the loan 55 days seems to be the average length in which these have been held this tells you a couple key things. It tells you that there are new shorts that have entered into positions or old shorts have exited positions both of these can be possible and both can happen simultaneously.

It's not an if this uh then that's not possible. It's a if this or and that right both both can simultaneously happen so what i want to show you guys is 55 days ago on the chart. What this actually looks like right because this is something i don't see a ton of people talking about and we're actually right on the cusp of why this is important. So what i'm going to do is i'm going to use trading view here really quick.

I'm going to go to pattern and i'm going to pick a date range. And i want to show you guys the difference of 55 bars worth of time. And what that actually looks like for the stock. So here's 55 days.

And what you're going to find at the peak of this candle. If you look up here at the high right high metric. We're gonna come back to this candle just look at it quick 1625 is the high the open was 15 39. And the low is 15.

25 taking the very highest price the very highest 1625. If the average loan length is 55 days what this would tell you is that the average short position is at break. Even that is if you were considering it to be 55 bars. Now if you were to take 55 days.

Uh. Well what you're going to find is 55 days ago price was actually even lower. Uh the high on this is 1139. The lowest 10 30.

And the open was 11 33. We're gonna take the worst case scenario right let's take 55 bars worth of candles. What you're going to find looking at these 55 bars worth of candles with the 16 25. High is that we are exactly at break.

Even point for the average on loan share. This is significant for one simple reason psychologically speaking people hate losing money. I think we can all agree on that right whether you're a hedge fund. Whether you're a cat whether you're not a cat.

Whether you're an ape whether you're just retail whether you're grandma dude. Nobody likes to lose money and when these guys start losing money that shifts the perspective and the lens that you start looking at a stock right so. What i would anticipate would happen is this two simple things. One smart shorts will start to slow the exit positions this means that you might see short interest drop as it actually has right it has dropped a small amount if you're gonna come back you can see that it has dropped from 22 to about 17 right 18.

And number two. I think that dumb shorts will stay in i bring this up because i think you will watch short interest drop off a little bit. And if it doesn't if it actually goes up that means. There's not a whole lot of smart shorts out there adding back to the position uh while they are red or break.

Even uh previously green. This is important to think about and adds actually to the thesis behind where we are now see if you look at stonko tracker. Something that you're going to find in and i i use this sparingly. Because there typically is more call volume than there is put volume for amc.

But nonetheless. What you're going to find is that puts have kind of been lacking. They really are not putting a lot of firepower uh in this stock right now. There's certainly not a lot of these uh.

These puts or contracts in the money and that tells me that there's more big money right now playing and planning. The upside of amc. Why because the momentum is leaning that way and shorts are getting to sort of the point in which they're really no longer holding the control. They were for the previous two or three months that sounds strange to say because we are still down drastically from highs right.

But the average short from back in june. Who may be shorted at 70 bucks or 65. Certainly is not in it now the people shorting. This now missed it they're stupid right no matter.

What way you cut it right. If you shorted amc from 70 bucks to 20. These guys made money right. It's impossible not to if you caught the top of that you shorted down.

Whatever quote. Unquote smart short uh shorting here stupid doesn't make any sense. I can't fathom in any way shape or form. How it makes sense to short it now especially when you can see that the momentum is really starting to shift here over the previous two months and that brings me to momentum level.

See where we are dancing. Right now is actually very. Interesting it's with a momentum level at 1662. So i've got three different lines marked up here one of them was about 1614 next.

One is 1662 and then the intraday high of 1695. Where is where we rejected right now. What i view is today uh. What i think happened today was a false breakout right you got a rising wedge pattern.

These are five minute candles rising wedge fading volume it pulls back that's typical you know standard textbook ta right pulls back off that recovers. A little bit tap 1662. This was sort of a fake out right. This is the first sort of test that breaking 1662 and it didn't hold it faded on volume as it pushed up right that we don't like to see that you want to see higher volume on those breakouts.

But what's nice is if it breaks 1662 because if it does and i i i'm usually pretty peculiar right. I don't wanna. I don't wanna hype too much i don't wanna pretend like it's something that's not uh. But if it does and i think that things are pointing that direction you've got upside to i think about twenty dollars right.

I'm gonna change this to uh the four hour candle. Because this will give you the best sort of image. That i think i can uh this this oh second uh second place holy grail line right touch points here here here here. Here and then next would be here.

If it ends up testing this right and that's at about 20. Now. There's not a lot of uh space in between that where i expect hesitation and chop. Which means if we can break over 1662 and then obviously the intraday high from the previous day.

I'm targeting that 20. I really am 20 bucks in the within the period of i don't know how long it would take maybe a couple days maybe a week. Maybe two weeks. I do think it is dependent on the strength of the spy.

Which did reject today right if we were to look at the spy. What you're gonna see is uh. It's sort of rejected off of this falling fan level right. I consider this to be sort of a fan.

They're all sort of coming from different points. At the same location touching different lines. Well this one tap tap tap tap rejects off of this uh. Falling resistance line pushes down.

You know if spy could come back up and continue that strength. I think sooner rather than later. But if the spy is weak you you extend timeline right spy. Does play an impact and a roll on how amc moves during this bear market.

But nonetheless. I want to show you guys this 1662 big level 1662 is gonna be a game changer you break that you break this 1695 high. I'm targeting 20 bucks. You know i think this looks good now i'd be doing a disservice.

If i don't say uh. There is obviously downside potential right who who knows how that will play out. And what i'd be watching for if this is a juke out if it rejects off 1662. Which i find to be unlikely given the sort of the current condition of how things are moving uh.

Watch. This. Dotted. White line.

You're looking at 8 july. 9. 11. July.

14. July. 15. July.

Sort of touch points to hold up that overall support. This is sort of like a secondary support to the main one which is way down here separated from where we're currently trading that would be all the way back down about 1269. So we're continuously setting up nicely. I mean.

This is a beautiful looking chart you do finally have pressure on shorts. Which is something we've been missing for months. People ask me trey. What what is it going to take right what is it going to take for this thing to move uh and and one of the key factors.

Legitimately outside of the spy having strength and at least maintaining is pressure on shorts. We haven't had it we haven't had pressure on short positions. They've all been sitting comfortably on green comfortably uh euphorically high on sort of the fear that they've been mongering and taking advantage of at their short position right and that's sort of starting to fade away. It is uh and when these guys are not green anymore they're gonna look at this different that is going to affect the way that this trades money talks money talks.

We can all share that same sentiment from the top to the bottom. It's gonna be the same exact thing and i'm telling you uh this does look good this chart looks freaking beautiful and that's what i've got for this video. So uh. I won't spend much more time than that i'll be back tomorrow live on.

Youtube if you like to check that out at uh 2 pm. Eastern. I'll be live tonight on twitch at sometime between 7 00 and 8 pm eastern uh so stop by hang. 10.

It could be great to see you appreciate you all much lovely taps as always and peace.