Well, tomorrow's cpi, day and uh, you know exactly what that means. It means uh we're we're in for a great, very boring straight uh, chill day uh in the markets, as we have had for uh. What appears to be, you know, quite quite a few months now, just very relaxed normal uh, normal operating markets. It's it's a it's.

A really beautiful thing, guys! Welcome back to trade straight three freaking talk fast notes, come closer everybody's, saying, i'm not professional expert. So take what i say: the great salt today we're going to be talking about broad market uh. Tomorrow is inflation day. Cpi data comes out the consumer price index, and this is going to give us an inkling of what to expect over the next couple of weeks.

Uh we just had the fed come out and they raised rates by 50 basis points not too long ago, and they anticipate doing two more followed by a couple of 25s. This is an effort to combat inflation. Now, if rates are meant to bring inflation down and inflation keeps going up, that means that the fed may have to redirect course uh, which is going to continue to bring pain in the market. The reason we've seen so much right in the market is in response to poor economic conditions, fear of a recession, inflation being as bad as it is uh and the fed's response to it.

So we are hoping to see as investors uh, the the the cpi data come out and stagnate, or even maybe potentially go a little bit lower and that's gon na ease up the market a bit so uh. We have to discuss this. You know at least a little bit get you prep for tomorrow, uh, as that data will be coming out. The inflation data that we've seen over the previous uh.

You know a couple of months has has continuously gone up and if you look right here, you're gon na see that uh ever since 2021 would probably be march of 2021. It's just continuously rose. You see, 2.6. Four point: two: five, five, four, five, four five.

Three. Five: four: six: two: six, eight seven uh, seven, five, seven, nine, eight five! It's just continuously ramped up ramped up ramped up and you can see this uh by looking at 2022. I mean it's, it's it's very very intensely high uh and what you're looking for is a peek out on that data, so that potentially the fed can stick with their plans. Just keep raising rates.

Uh 50 points. 50 points. 25. 25.

And if you ask me, i don't think that's gon na cut it when you've printed out 16 trillion dollars in the last uh two years. But you know that's the plan for now. It's the plan for them. So, in response to the market response to how things look and how this is going to affect the amc as spy uh, despite weakness, translates into everything you know uh, if you're trying to sail the ocean in the middle of the ocean is a hurricane you're riding This boat up and down some 50-foot waves, it's going to be bumpy and it's going to be shitty and it's going to be uh, just not a good ride.

You know, and that's really where we're at right now with uh with this present sell-off uh. With that being the case you, you really want to see the spy bounce here uh. So here's sort of the the situations that i can see going into tomorrow and then i'm gon na draw it up on the chart just so we have an idea of what that may end up. Looking like so 8.5 percent was the last monthly inflation year over year, uh sort of metric that we received.

You can see this back here in march. This is reflecting back in march uh an 8.5 total inflation compared to a year prior 2021 march of 2021.. So uh, what i would like to see personally is stagnation. I think stagnation is likely a a really good scenario: uh for a bullish sort of uh pull-up.

You know a relief bounce, uh stagnation, meaning if it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 8.3, to maybe even 8.7 percent. This to me would be uh indicative of a slowdown, stagnation, uh. It shows that what the fed's been doing for the previous couple of months, uh may have had some sort of an impact on the state of inflation or the state of the economy. Another poor scenario is if inflation is lower.

If it's let's say eight points, maybe like 7.8 to 8.3 percent right, i don't know if it would be lower than that. I mean it seems like a like a stretch. It seems like it's a difficult thing to do as we haven't seen any slowdown yet, but it's a potential possibility. I mean if you see that inflation's actually lower uh buy everything immediately in the morning, because you're gon na see the entire market just hulk dick and if, in fact, you're probably gon na see the charcoal like this it'll come up.

Then it's actually gon na go back in time and reverse all the all the red that you've seen it's gon na be uh like click with adam sandler, inflation lower, would be a massive massive squeeze up uh for everything. I think everything would go absolutely ape. Uh coming off of that and the bearish scenario to me: uh is another continuation of uh of inflation being pretty poor uh, and what that would personally look like to me is uh greater than eight point: seven percent, you know greater than 8.7 percent. I think that'd be correct.

No it's this greater than 8.7 percent, i think, would be uh. Obviously bearish. I think you'd see a continuation of sell-off and the spy is in a situation right now, where it's it's just closed. Underneath 400, for the second day in a row uh, and if it is a bad inflation sort of gauge bad inflation metric uh, i think you're gon na see some pretty harsh moves in this 380 uh 380 off the 382 fib would look pretty realistic.

So this is what i'm thinking you know based on the things that make sense to me uh. If inflation is bearish, i think you're going to watch this overall trend. I think it would eventually come down to this 382 test out that 380 mark uh and that's that's really, where you'd be looking for some form of a bounce up along the way likely a little bit of chop around whatever but the grand scheme of things. If it's bearish, it's just going to give sellers extra strength uh to continue on this uh.

This bear market thesis or this recession that uh that people have been talking about: stagnation, slow down or uh the pullback inflation. If it's actually a little bit better than the month prior, i think you'd be inclined to see a relief bounce and i've got a couple. Different levels mapped out here: uh you've got the 236 fib, which is at about 419 or so, and then you've got these falling levels of resistance, and what you're going to find is every time it taps these levels it likes to gravitate towards another one right taps Right here comes up to this second to second, to the top level comes back down, comes up to the second of the top level, comes to the second to the bottom taps, the top taps, the second to the top taps. The top keeps going right.

He likes to bounce back and forth between these levels uh, while it's in this sort of uh downtrend that it's been trading in for quite some time. So, in a bullish scenario, i think what you're gon na be looking for is a top out here. A top out here or a top out here depends on how strong inflation data uh ends up coming out, but i would anticipate that the generalized trend would be a really nice relief rally, uh back up into some of these different falling resistance levels and ultimately, that's Gon na rub off into everything i mean you look at uh the generalized market. Amc specifically, you know uh.

This would give some strength back to amc, which would be really welcome, because uh we've we've broken a very significant level of support. I mean this is uh. This is a tough line to break beneath uh for the time being, and it means pain. You know from a technical perspective, this breakdown, as we've seen for the last couple of days, uh, gives sellers confidence to really push the price down, which you have seen.

Despite a great q1 earnings, i mean, i said this in a tweet yesterday, but but amc uh beat on both eps and revenue yeah and you got this nice pop. It was up ten percent on the day and then you you walk into this. You know we. We closed down five percent when we were up ten.

So what does that tell you? You know it tells you that that market weakness and this technical breakdown are not helping the situation. You know uh. We really like to see a relief in the spine. That's gon na make a big difference in everything so uh.

I do think that's what you're kind of looking at you know: stagnation's good, uh, less inflation's, good higher is bad uh and that's going to reflect in the way that this sort of trades. So i watch these levels. Just connect. Dots touch.

Point touch, point touch point, there's three line touch point touch point touch, point touch, point line, touch point touch, point touch, point touch point line so on and so forth. Right and it just keeps trading back and forth between these channels uh, and this is really what you're looking for for some direction heading into uh tomorrow. So with that being said, uh, so we got ta wait for we got ta, wait and watch, and i had this - and this is how i close off the video i had somebody in uh in discord today. Tell me you know he was talking about uh about about amy and the spy and every stock in relation to the spying.

They said this. They said trey uh. If everything tracks the spy uh. What can you do? It just seems like everything's sort of predestined, like ta doesn't matter, and my response to that was was pretty simple.

You can actually see this by looking at uh the chart amc in any stock. For that matter, it is, it is drastically easier to sell fear than it is to sell greed and that's sort of the two metrics you can think of the stock market operating on greed. Being you know the uprips and fear being the downrips fear is always easier to sell and stocks like to track fear much more so than greed does, and you can think about it in terms of if good companies are succumbing to fear such as apple such as Tesla such as such, as so on and so on and so on. If everything's taking this beat down right, you have your.

You have your case in point right there uh and that just means that fear selling on amc and gamestop, which just recently broke under 100, tells you the entire picture. You know if you look at gamestop and you look at amc side by side and you see the similarities between the charts. You know what's at hand here and it's uh uncontrollable factors such as short selling and market making and uh and dark pool trading and otc trading and uh recession. Talks are influencing everything and the price does not represent the growth of the company.

The strength of the investors into the company - and it's really not telling us the right metric. It's just saying that right now, hey look, the price is, is down because of xyz xyz xyz. Whatever people want to justify it as but in my mind, and i think many people's minds uh everything - is getting slapped very hard because of things that will eventually pass it doesn't reflect on the company. It doesn't reflect on uh.

What many of us believe is going to be the worth of the company, but it does mean in the short term, there's pain and until the spy and the market relieves itself, it goes take a piss whatever it may be. You know, uh. That pain will be there and that's that's the honest-to-god truth. If amc hangs beneath this, this uh rising level of support, i'm watching for ten dollars for breaks beneath that i'd, be watching for right here, 8.90 and that's the truth.

If uh, if we have good inflation data, i think you'd be looking at something along these lines. Uh bounce back up to this level try to reclaim that support which would be about 16 bucks. So that's what we're working with right now, guys! That's uh! That's the update on inflation, that's the update on the market, uh and i'll be i'll, be on twitch after this. So if you guys want to come over to twitch.tv anti-juicer uh, we have an hour of stock talk in the beginning.

We're gon na ask questions. Uh, have you look at charts, have some debate whatever it may be: uh that's available, we'll start at 5, 30 p.m, central standard time. So, by the time this video is live i'll, probably be on twitch, uh and i'll be on discord tomorrow too. So if you want to hang out discord i'll, be there and uh, that's what i got for you so i'll catch y'all later appreciate you as always much lovely taps and peace.