Oh, let's get ready to rumble the spy today ow titan bit me. I think i freaked them out spy today had a beautiful recovery, holy crap, happy fen day, boys and girls hope you're all chillin uh welcome back to trade street. It's like representative 775. Please leave us another green salt uh today, we're gon na be talking about the pharmacy meeting that took place.

This is uh actually went over pretty well, and i think there were a lot of people that were surprised. Some people expected there to be some form of a dump because of uh the rate hikes right, which kind of makes sense to some extent. But i think i'm gon na put this into a different perspective, where you're going to understand why the market had a green day today and consequently a whole bunch of stocks, including amc bounced. I'm sorry, i'm looking at the ground right now.

I'm worried 10's gon na bite. My my ankles, i think i freaked them out. Oh hold on one sec. Come on quit good, be good, but anywho.

We're gon na go over a couple different things. Today the fed decided they wanted to uh raise rates. They did their first rate hike of 2022 and uh. It actually went on pretty smoothly, there's about a point, two five percent uh rate hike, which, if you were to look historically speaking, is about what you would expect.

So i want to show you guys this there's an article uh right now that was kind of prefacing. What you may expect coming into this rate hike based on historical rate, hikes that the federal reserve uh has embarked on. If you look back right, you can see this. The mid 2000 cycle is what has our attention is? There were 17 total rate hikes in 2004, five and six yeah, the s p 500 managed to gain in every year and in that two-year cycle, the fed funds rate went up from one percent to 5.25 percent uh, while the s p 500 had a similar return.

Granted, you know, obviously the world geopolitical situation is not the exact same, but all that to say that the right hikes didn't actually bring the stock market down. In that exact moment, in fact, it differs in terms of uh. If you look at the stock market compared to the economy, the economy is really what's going to feel some pressure from those rate hikes. So why did the market go up today and what is there to know based on uh what we've talked about? Well, this is going to line up really well with my theory about uh small, mid cap rotations and essentially what this is going to be talking about.

Are stocks like amc, gamestop, mullin, uh bed bath to beyond uh blackberry, maybe even cei. You know all these small mid cap names. I think you're gon na see a lot of money start to move back into these uh growth stocks instead of value stocks as the uncertainty in the market wanes away and what ended up happening right. What was the uncertainty? Well, the uncertainty that we were worried about coming into today is are the rate hikes going to be, as expected is the rate hike going to equal 0.25 percent? You saw a lot of low volume right, there's a little volume across the entire market, especially noticeable in the spy heading into today.

Right, the last two days three days even have been lower volume than you would typically expect out of the broad market. So the market you know volume coming back is anticipation of. Yes, we do believe this is good uh. We got rid of this uncertainty of the rate, hike actually being 0.25 percent, and with that uncertainty gone, what do you have? You have the opposite of that, which is certainty.

We know that there's going to be a 0.25 rate hike. We have now j powell stating even if he did say we didn't expect inflation to be quite as bad as it truly was, which is some interesting stuff. He did come out nonetheless and say hey. This is our first rate hike.

This is what we did. Uh we still plan on having six more as the year goes on, uh is, is what i am gathering was announced here today. So with that being said, how is this actually going to uh impact things right? Well, you may see a little bit of a game plan change depending on how inflation is actually combated. This is uh meant to be sort of a tightening of the economy.

If you look at this as a rope right and this rope being real loose, is essentially really cheap costs to borrow uh money, you can get a line of credits fairly easy and mortgage is going to be easy to to to grab for low interest rate right. If you tighten that rope essentially what's happening, is it's just a little more difficult to get money, it's harder to borrow cash right, which is a tightening of the economy versus a looser economy? What the the fed is doing is they're, saying: hey: we've got really bad inflation. I think we've been a little too loose for a little too long. We got to make money a little less accessible to to borrow, because then there's going to be less money that circulates around on a day-to-day basis to be able to combat that inflation uh a little bit better they're gon na be some repercussions to this right.

I think gold and uh metals in the short term are gon na have an uptick. This is a nice uh, hedge against some form of a uh recession, which could potentially happen right. It's going to depend on how the currently planned out rate hikes actually affect inflation and uh change, the way that things move uh. You know that comes down to daddy daddy powell.

I mean danny powell's got to swing his big wiener onto the table and just show that hey. This is what we're going to do and uh if he thought it out. You know he's got more education than i do so we just got to bank on. Hopefully him making the right calls outside of gold and other precious metals having an uptick which, by the way, uh.

This is one reason why i i'm pretty solid on amc buying into a company that does have affiliations with precious metals. The repercussions tie back into what i talked about down here. It's gon na be more difficult to get a line of credit. It's gon na be more difficult to be able to borrow cash.

It's going to be more expensive to borrow cash. It's going to be more expensive to get a mortgage. I'm probably going to spell this wrong: a mortgage for a home uh you're, just going to see people a little more uh careful with their dollars just because it's not as easy to come by that money. So the repercussions don't really tie into stock prices right, as we just read in this article, you have actually seen the s p go up, while rate hikes happen right.

The stock market does not equal the economy. The stock market is sort of the reaction to certainty and uncertainty of the economy. So if the market's going up that doesn't necessarily mean that the economy is always reflecting that, i think you, you could still see some form of a small, small-scale recession. We may already be in it to be honest time will tell you know we're watching some other uncertainties such as what's happening in russia what's happening in iran, iraq, china, taiwan, uh.

We don't know how oil is going to affect inflation, there's a lot of different things that can contribute, but for this perspective, this uncertainty has been squashed pretty pretty heavy. Now. One last thing that i'd like to talk about is banks right. If you look at banks uh, this is actually pretty huge.

Banks have been given a lot of money by the federal reserve. In fact, banks uh, if you look at the reverse repurchase agreement market right now, there is a lot of money, that's getting sifted back and forth between the federal reserve and uh and banks. Let me just pull this up real quick, reverse repo market i'll show you guys a chart here, really quick! So you can. You can see how how freaking crazy this actually is, because there is a uh, a very large amount of money that is getting moved back and forth back and forth back and forth: reverse repurchase agreement market uh to show you guys what this looks like right now: Fred dot, st louis - something something something so check this out: lots and lots of money, moving back and forth between banks and the federal reserve.

Essentially, this is just a transaction between uh money and treasury notes, and these get exchanged back and forth back and forth, and what you see here is a huge uptick uh between the banks and the federal reserve with money right. You see at the peak here nearly two trillion dollars of reverse repurchase agreements and i think you're gon na watch this slowly start to decline. I think you're gon na see less uh of this overall transaction taking place between uh banks and the federal reserve, which just means banks are gon na raise interest rates on borrowing money. It's gon na be a little less uh easy to get margin, perhaps like if you're running an institutional uh.

You know a hedge fund, for example, you've got a margin loan out or maybe a short position out. You might see costs tomorrow. Go up. You know it's a little harder to come, buy money, it's a little harder to loan out money when the economy is tightened up in the way that it is, and we know banks as the responsible people they are are certainly not prone to over leveraging.

The amount of money that they borrow out, so i am nearly certain that we'll have some repercussions here, uh in the future. So uh, that's really the the big marks that i think are probably the most interesting the rate hike. You know, wiped out that uncertainty. You got a little more certainty in the market, we're not quite out of the clear uh for the for the broad market, but i think this is a great step you're, watching this overall falling wedge setup.

Personally, i don't think this is the crack. I think he may see this bounce around a little bit more before it finally gets a break in maybe a week or two uh, but i might be wrong if you see this continue on trend coming into tomorrow, and this candle opens and continues to keep the Momentum, you very well miss may be seeing the spy uh get the reversal. We've all been waiting for it's very possible, so keep an eye on that right. This falling wedge is pretty easy: just connect some dots, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot dot.

You see a break of that dot. You know you connect the dots. You have a line uh if it continues on. You know you're looking at the possibility of getting out of this small-scale bear market that we have been in, and that brings me to the last thing that i'd like to discuss, which is uh sort of the contingencies.

We talked about what stocks do stocks like certainty, uh, we got more certainty in the market. You saw the spy rip. You saw. Amc have a a a five percent green day today.

Right all this contributes essentially to yes, there's more certainty in the market. Big money, starting to step back in they want to get things pampened, just like uh, jay pal, when he was, he was printing off money and uh and basically squeezed in the market as the fed was buying as much as they were best case scenario. I think you continue on you see these. These rate hikes happen.

They get announced point two: five percent continues on. You got six more for the year. The market finds more and more certainty as the timeline gets closer and closer and closer and closer you're good to go. I think the worst case scenario for the rate hikes, however, is going to be uh, unexpected circumstance so like, for example, if covert was to come back and uh, everyone had to stop working, that's something to be watching for.

If russia escalates and uh nato has to somehow get involved, the united states has to get involved. That's gon na that's gon na change things. We have to see how oil is actually going to impact inflation, because the fed may not be uh properly calculating how much they'll actually weigh. I mean, let's just be honest here: j powell said we didn't, expect inflation to be this bad, which i think you could have spotted from a million miles away.

Uh you could, you could have been straight out of high school. I mean myself, i'm just a smelly, a smelly ape. I don't know nothing about nothing. I never took economics and i could just look at the money printed and say you know this.

This looks like inflation's being a little underestimated, but nonetheless those are the things you want to watch for uncertainties, so russia still an uncertainty and until that's resolved, you still could see things happen. Colvin, i think that's pretty pushed down but keep an eye on it. Nonetheless, an oil - these are probably the big three three things that i'm watching for right now, which brings me to uh. My final point: the uh short squeeze 2.0 across the market, and this ties into amc.

So i've said this many many times. Amc goes down on any given day right now, along with a bunch of other names right, gamestop, bed, bath and beyond blackberry nokia, sundial, whatever you name it there's a crap ton of names. These have all been getting smoked, and i think that you're gon na see a lot of shorts cover positions uh, as the uncertainty in the market goes away and a big part of this is going through the pain of the rate hike that is going to take A toll on the economy right, you're, gon na see that happen, inflation uh it should go down, but you're. Also gon na see people kind of battling a little bit with their pockets so uh when shorts cover uh.

That will happen to me when the rallying begins behind the uncertainty being gone. Shorts cover equals uncertainty gone. I think this is going to equal a lot of small mid-cap names, pushing up uh monstrous monstrous amount uh in the near future. I stand by my same time.

Frame, it's been a couple weeks since i've talked about this, so i think that would come out to about one to two months. I think last time i spoke, it was two weeks to two and a half months. I think it wanted two months. You're gon na see small mid cap companies, which is somewhere between 100 million to 10 billion dollars worth of uh market capitalization, which is how much money there is in the company.

If you multiply the average price uh. The current price, by the total number of shares that are floating around you'll, get the market cap and uh. I think companies such as this 100 million dollars to 10 billion dollars worth of market capitalization are gon na, have massive massive runs up and uh we're. Not quite there yet, but we are nearing close and that does tie into our girl amy and what that ultimately is going to mean.

I've made a video about this before we've gone through quite a few months of pain. Uh, i think those months of pain are nearing an end. I said i believe the bottom is close and it's been bobbled around right. It's at 15, 23 right now.

It's tap down tap tappity tap, tap, tap tap just like uh. What is that movie is that billy madison is that the movie, where no that's, not billy, madison uh, happy gilmore yeah! It's like happy gilmore! That's what i was that's what i was thinking of it's like happy gilmore man, it's tapping around right now, but when the time comes and uh all the uncertainty's gone, i don't think there's much leg to stand on for shorts within uh amc, gamestop and a whole List of other small mid cap companies that are getting purposefully driven down by shorts and market makers for the time being, so, i think the pain's coming to a close. I stand by a lot of the things that i've said. If my theory changes or my perspective changes or new information comes, my opinion changes uh, i will let you guys know you know uh.

I think you might see at the very worst case scenario for amc downside to 12 bucks for the time being break under 12. If it doesn't hold that support you're, looking at nine ten right, uh right now, there's some strength. There's some resiliency you're, seeing the market get some strength back. That's tying back into amc, ultimately and uh.

That to me is, is the big key piece that we're waiting for is get the uncertainty out of the market. Get the rate hikes done. Uh and you're gon na be looking a lot smoother for getting those shorts to start pissing in their pants like uh like they truly truly should be, and that's what i've got for this uh, this freaking video. So for me, titan big old city over here.

He bit me on the hand pretty good earlier, you're kind of being a jerk buddy for me and teddy over here appreciate y'all tuning in catch you on the next one, much love light taps peace.