My thesis is very simple: i think that this year, you're going to witness a lot of small mid cap companies go through uh short squeezes. My reasoning to you is very simple: if you watch this video, the one that i just showed, you called, if you don't believe in market corruption, this will convince you. It goes over short interest data across a variety of different small and mid-cap companies across the stock market. A lot of these, which are retail favorites right uh, but, to put it in the easiest context that i can i like to show people this iwm.

This is the russell 2000. This is the smaller mid cap etf, comprised of about 2 000 different companies. Hence the name: it's currently sitting at a short interest of about 38.16 estimated according to finra, which is reported every two weeks. We do currently have 39.16 absolutely locked in from the previous reporting date right.

So with that being said, that is extremely high to have 39 short interest in an etf which is supposed to be where 401kers roth iras uh grand mommers put their cash and have to do no thinking in the least bit right. This is more of a growth etf than a value. Etf. May i add, that's obvious right: it's not a blue chip.

These companies haven't already made it quote unquote, but this is an etf nonetheless, which should be very minimal risk. Well, 38 short interest of free float is incredibly high and you can only assume that is because a lot of small mid cap companies are shorted to kingdom, come right, lots of short interest across small mid cap companies. Now this brings me back to amc, which is obviously uh for the time being a mid cap company uh. I personally believe that amc is going to be a part of this, but it will not just be amc.

I don't think it'll just be gamestop either. I think it's going to be a very similar situation to what we saw in january uh. Hence but uh, albeit different type of squeeze. I don't think you're gon na see it be a two to three day uh squeeze again where everything's just going absolutely nuts.

They shut down everything uh, it's just like bam. You're done. I think it's gon na be a matter of growth stocks such as perhaps amc or maybe microvision if they actually get bought out by some form of an electric vehicle company for the lidar tech, perhaps bbig, perhaps iron c, perhaps mulln, perhaps uh prague, perhaps roblox. I mean at this point roblox is, i would consider to be uh, not quite a small mid-cap, but uh you, you get my point here.

I think small mid-cap companies are gon na, go through a a very large move and here's my reasoning as to why right, i'm gon na bring you guys over to my handy dandy, microsoft whiteboard. So this is this is what my thought process is, and this is what i personally believe is going to happen across the market right. A lot of people were surprised by when uh the spy reversed. You know if you watched my live streams.

The last couple days uh, i actually talked about it. I said i think that once that russian uh, the news comes out, you can go back. I think it's actually in a video now a clip uh. I said once once russia actually initiates an attack on ukraine that will price in and the market will start to reverse right.

I said that for one simple, exact reason, and it's because, regardless of whether it's good news or it's bad news, the market loves certainty right. So why did this happen in the first place? Well, if the market likes certainty, certainty equals bulls, that has to mean then that uncertainty equals bears. So what uncertainties did we have in the market in the first place right? Well, for a good long minute, we had the fed and inflation and how they would handle inflation, and it seems that the market, at the very least, has accepted the fed's current plan to combat inflation and tapering and tightening of the economy. Then you have the russia conflict.

This is still ever-changing right. This is why i say on a mid-term time scale uh this thesis over here in which shorts uh will start covering across small mid cap companies is based on the certainties of the market. Uh covering that's spelled absolutely wrong, but this is a midterm thesis right, midterm couple months, one to three months: that's what i would say, russia for the time being the uncertainty was. Will russia actually go to war with ukraine right now? This is obviously a devastating situation.

The geneva convention being broken, uh, really really sad, really messed up man, i mean this whole thing is brutal. I would say fun's in there too, martin absolutely yeah, uh, fun, microvision, prague, bbig, amc, gamestop, uh iron t there's a whole lot of different names right. A lot of different uh retail favorite stocks, but the uncertainty was: will this actually happen now that these two uncertainties are off the table? What did you see happen right? Well, no. Uncertainty in the market means there's certainty in the market, at least to some extent, and that equals bullish activity.

The spy has bounced from 410 dollars to a high of 437 in a matter of two days, a drastic change in points i mean that's a 27 point. Swing, that's incredible! That's absolutely nuts, and that comes from the certainty of a bullish, uh, the certainty of the market right, it creates bulls. So what happens when there's no uncertainty in the market anymore right well! These bears won't really have much of a leg to stand on. These bears have been thriving in the conditions of uncertainty.

They look for. The fear. Fear comes from uh the unknown right. If we don't know, what's gon na be happening with the fed, we don't know.

What's gon na be happening with russia, a short position makes sense for a bear to establish at least to some extent, to the extent that we see across small, mid cap companies. I think that's a very debatable topic to say the least. However, for the time being, there's no uncertainties in the market. Now i do want to poke a hole in my theory right.

This is one thing that i think is an ever-changing solute. You know a situation. Is russia right, russia? I do not think this is my personal opinion and i can't get much deeper into this. I can't comment uh per se on the the full scope of the situation, but i will say i don't think russia will likely stop with ukraine.

I think russia will likely respond to sanctions the sanctions from the united states. This could create some form of an uncertainty right so which could create a new box and which that's why i said mid-term midterm one to three months. I personally believe you're gon na see shorts start getting real sweaty right. Uh sanctions could be something in which you see uh.

Some uncertainties start to reappear in the market. The second situation is if russia declares conflict or war with another country war conflict with another country. If that happens, you can bet your ass. Another uncertainty will certainly take place within the market, but these are tangibles right.

There's there's a likelihood of this and an unlikelihood of this. I personally find it to be more likely, which is why i'm giving myself this one to three month target and not necessarily a one to two day target right. I think the entire market is feeling uh, perhaps over confidence. I would.

I would value this to be over confidence. The the level of absolute rampaging growth and recovery that you've seen out of the spy and, typically when you have overconfidence or uh over-hyped fear, you see a bounce back in either direction. So uh we'll see if there's any news that comes out this weekend, but nonetheless i think that once these uncertainties are gone, if there's no more uncertainty regarding russia, uh you're gon na start seeing shorts begin to cover slowly over time across a lot of small and Mid-Cap companies and a way that you can track this is through iwm every day. I check the short interest and not just uh, not just amc.

I also check it in iwm, because this is the small mid cap etf, and this is tracking sort of the sentiment across all these different small and mid cap names so that you can kind of see what's happening in the broad scope in terms of confidence and Fear uh for bears because bears, do make their money off of uncertainty and, if there's no uncertainty that they don't have any legs to stand on so uh, that's personally what i believe to be the case. This is my thesis. My thesis is very simple in terms of why i think shorts should be sweaty right now. It's because, for the time being, until some other major conflict or issue within our economic system or the world begins they're running out of juice, they're running out of juice.

To stand on across small mid cap companies and the spy iwm getting the moves that they have granted today is not as much of a bounce, but you saw lots and lots of names yesterday absolutely tearing off of uh that recovery from the uh, the russian ukraine Situation ending so uh, that's my thesis. You know you can poke some holes in it if you'd like to, but i personally believe that you're gon na see small, mid caps really start to recover uh and, i think, perhaps over recovered, which could lead to some squeezes across some names, and i personally believe, Obviously that there are some names, that'll stand out from the rest. I think that uh, you know, gamestop and amc are probably the two retail favorites in which you're gon na see some pretty monstrous moves uh, but it's not certainly limited to just these two. I think there will be other quote-unquote sympathy, movers that go alongside the short covering rally that i personally believe will take place amongst these growth stocks, as time goes on a growth stock compared to a value stock right uh, a growth stock is more speculative uh.

It's it's. You know, that's certainly uh a lot of small mid cap companies, which is why they're small mid cap companies, growth equals speculative and i would classify value stocks as already established. These are established businesses that you don't really worry about uh their business plan coming to fruition versus a growth stock, which obviously has more upside because it's not already established uh, there's more risk inherently and they're, usually small mid-cap companies, so uh. I think growth stocks will have some nice moves.

I really do. I personally believe you know, i'm not gon na try and even remotely time this down to the day. I think there are lots of people that think they can. I do not think that i can.

I don't think i can tell you down to the exact day when the spy is going to to to have its that's. Oh, this could be the absolute bottom. I think it is. I think it is.

I think it is who the knows man i mean. What it comes down to is, is uh the world's situation in terms of conflict and war in the federal reserve within our own united states right. Are they going to be able to manage inflation and rate hikes and uh tapering off of assets, the way that we the way that we want them to? I don't know you know, but for the time being, i've seen enough boxes start to get checked that i personally believe a lot of the uncertainties that shorts have stood on right. This is what they thrive on, have begun to vanish.

So uh, that's my thesis! That's what i think i personally believe that, within the next couple of months, you are going to start to see shorts begin to cover positions, and if i was a short right now in this market, i would be pretty sweaty seeing the the the certainty that is Starting to establish itself within the markets now i have one last thing that i'd like to say uh before i continue on right, uh and it's regarding trading. Now i've talked about this many many many many times before, but in the current volatility of the market, which you can easily track with what i like to call the fear index uh the vix right, you can track uh sort of the the volatility of the market Watching the vix - and you can look at this on an hourly timeframe, you're looking at a daily time frame, i would track this anytime that the vix is high. There is a really high amount of risk on taking large size and positions first off. If you are a trader, uh and second off and overnighting a trade, this is much different than a core holding a core position, an investment but a trade uh.

Please be careful, be careful in these current market conditions. I'd say until the vix really starts to calm down, uh there's a lot of inherent risk in overnighting or taking very large size in a trade. I i got a couple of messages from uh from people uh over twitter and text. You know some some close friends who who took some trades with way too big of size and overnighted, some things that maybe they shouldn't have uh, and just i just don't want you guys to put yourself in that situation right.

That's these! These are avoidable uh spots to be in, and i want the best for everybody. So uh just be careful uh, as always, you guys ultimately pull the trigger. I'm not here to tell you what to buy. I'm not here to tell you what to sell.

I'm just a guy who looks at charts and uh and drinks kraken from time to time and uh. You know that's that's this. That's just my personal opinion. So do what you got to do at the end of the day, but uh that's kind of what i've got for so far.