What's up you bunch of beautiful meatballs, t-boy trey back again and as you can tell by the title of the video i was wrong. I mean there's really no other way to put it uh, at least in terms of a gut punch reaction from the spy and what i expected from cpi data uh. This is not. This is not even remotely what i expected to happen when the data was released, and i want to talk about that before you know i can it's sort of what i think this looks like and what this could genuinely mean and then we're gon na kind of Apply this concept to other things.

I first got to just come out and say this is not a scenario that i saw coming. I think it's important to to own up and say: hey look! This isn't something that i thought was possible uh. This wasn't a scenario that i imagined and that's just the honest-to-god truth and i'm going to kind of go over where i think i went wrong uh and what i think took place today based off that. But before we get started what is up everybody? One of the trades trades where we can talk fast and just get classified by saying: they're, not flexible experts, so take what you say: the greatest salt uh, let's get into the video today, we're going to analyze a couple different things, obviously amc, but before we get Into amc, i want to go over the spy because i think the spy is going to dictate a lot of movement across the entire stock market uh over the the next couple of weeks.

Unfortunately, so here's sort of the the agenda for the day we're starting off with the spy i want to go over cpi uh, i kind of gave a prediction. I thought you know that the median was about eight point. Four percent. I thought it'd be between eight four eight point: four and not nine percent ended up being 8.5, we'll go over sort of the the metrics and apply that to the chart and kind of what that looks like glad.

I sat today out because, to be frank, uh you know i i i would have been thrown off with my game plan that i had in mind uh. I want to talk about the pricing of the spy, what sort of happened when the news came out? I want to talk about the initial reaction of the market kind of followed by the dump end of day and my thoughts and how that kind of relates to the 50 basis point hike. It actually did follow a pretty clean, ta pattern. We can go over that as well as we kind of dive into the the chart and what this uh all sort of did.

You know it actually touched this gap zone that i had mentioned in my video yesterday uh - and i want to talk about that. That's a that's a good tata sort of uh uh learning learning point for everybody for myself included. Then i'd like to talk about amc. We had a dump today, uh.

I don't think that uh, you know the spy dumping end of day helped, but it certainly did dump in and of itself uh. Just at the open, i mean it pumped up with the spy. You see the the five minute uh you look at 8. 30 right on this, around the nut, sack and bowman ran with the spy.

It kind of shows you the relation that it has to the broad market, we'll talk about that uh and kind of tomorrow. But i want to focus more so on the short week and the spread widening. I want to spend a lot of time on the spread widening. What do i mean by this call? Put cost calls are once again more expensive than puts uh and there's something taking place in the options chain.

It's really frustrating and uh. Who knows you know where this money's coming from, but i do want to talk about it. Uh we'll spend some time talking about the spy amc relation and what it's going to look like if the chop continues, which is what i'm personally anticipating, is just choppy markets, meaning, if you're to draw things out a lot of this whip. Sign back and forth back and forth slow, slow market right uh in the grand scheme of things.

I'm going to talk about that and then, if you can alienate the chop uh, which would mean basically just to alleviate it uh sort of get this thing to to get lost, uh which what i think that'll look like play a day going into tomorrow. I think it's gon na be the spy. I've got a couple different scenarios we'll go over that as well. First, let's start off with the spy so uh i talked about cpi dad.

I spent a lot of time on it in yesterday's video. I talked about, essentially my youtube studio is having issues i can't get into my traced, trades right now, uh, but i talked about uh. What i thought cpi would look like. I got some parts right.

You know i i estimated between eight point four nine percent. I said i don't think that it's quite priced at energy costs. I think you're gon na see a big spike up. It's not a hot, take right, everyone kind of thought that and it's just because it makes sense.

You know you look at that sort of thing. You say to yourself: you know what this kind of makes sense. Tomorrow's a big day, i discuss these sort of things, uh what i was not expecting. However, i had sort of two bare scenarios laid out: one of them was uh stagnation, and one of them was an increase.

If you saw stagnation, meaning that inflation stayed about the same or you saw an increase in inflation. I viewed this as bearish. I saw a decrease as bullish. Well, you actually saw an increase in inflation went up to 8.5 percent.

However, the spy went up off that news. Now. I know that the spy ended red by the end of the day. It was down 0.41 uh.

So i could sit here and pretend i could say: oh yeah, i was right. It just took time to price it in but nah now i'm not gon na play that game, because at the end of the day i was speaking on the gut punch reaction. Let's just be straight here: i'd rather just be straight here: uh, the gut punch reaction was literally the exact opposite of what i thought was going to happen. Why is this? I want to discuss why i think this happened.

I thought about this. I you know to myself, but then discuss it in my video i thought to myself. Well what? If you know the previous week two weeks has been pricing in slowly sort of the uh, the expectation for cpi data to come out. You know uh today, at 8 30 a.m.

I thought that was a possibility uh, but i didn't think it was a strong enough price there, and i want to tell you why the 8.5 cpi data consumer price index data or inflation data uh is a 40 year high. We haven't seen inflation data this high in 40 years. It's not good means. People are paying a lot more at the pump they're paying more for groceries, they're paying more for the mcdouble, their mick chicken they're mc, whatever the they want right.

Uh things are just expensive, things are not cheap and that has a strong effect on the economy and how much money is in your guys's bank accounts. You know - and i didn't feel like this was enough of a price in for a 40-year inflation high. I genuinely didn't uh and considering that i thought to myself, since i don't believe that it is priced in the full weight of what a 40-year high would look like. I think it's just going to be bearish.

I think people react to that news uh in a negative way. What actually ended up happening in my opinion, is this very simply put, i think if you were to look at the spy - and you were to look at sort of this pricing, it met expectations. This is where i went wrong right if people were pricing in no matter, if you, if it's right or it's wrong, and whether it's pricing it enough or it's not pricing it enough to you, it doesn't matter right. If i think it's been pricing in this much, it doesn't matter, it matters.

What the broad market with big money uh is pricing in for and if inflation met expectations, the broad expectation of this month being 8.4, and it was 8.5, which is just slightly worse. Not a ton worse uh, it basically just priced in right. They kind of anticipated that 8.4 inflation data and since it was 8.5, they priced it in accordingly and there really wasn't much more downside based on that, since it met that expectation more or less when it was announced to be 8.5. Do i think inflation's? Worse, probably, you know, i think this.

This is probably a conservative estimate who knows at the end of the day what the actual metric is, what the actual value of inflation is this year is this month compared to you over here, but this is where i went wrong, and this is a learning point For myself uh, i think in the future. I need to think about expectation. So if there is an expectation of 8.4 that 8.4 can actually get pre-priced in meaning that the broad market, as in the spy here uh, can start making downwards pressure moves based on an expectation of uncertainty. What will the inflation data be? That's an uncertainty right uh and that ended up coming to fruition.

You saw that sell-off. You saw some pressure to the downside based on inflation data coming out, and i met expectation because of that. I think that is why you got the bounce right. They said.

Oh, maybe maybe we were right now now we know that it's 8.5 we can start buying in. We have got a little more confidence in the markets whatever. But then you look at the market and this is where i think i'm i'm pretty pretty spot on, and i think this is gon na play out. Uh.

I've said more than once over the past couple weeks, maybe month or so that, if a 50 basis point hike becomes pretty imminent, the the threat of that from the the hawkish fed existence, you know, becomes the reality uh that you are likely going to see uh Downwards pressure, i think that will likely continue and it's going to be a choppy ass downwards pressure, a lot of volatility, going both directions as we've kind of seen, slingshot and back and forth between this channel as you've kind of seen on the spy until a 50 Basis point hike is announced. I think that is the absolute case here. I think that's why you likely saw the sell-off at the end of the day. You know, outside of that it was a technical level.

You touched this gap phil right here, uh right when it touched the gapfield rejected and sold off into the close. So it's kind of a combination of a technical rejection alongside what i believe to be uncertainty revolving around a 50 basis, point hike, uh. I stand by my statement that i've said in yesterday's video and in many other videos. I think that if, since inflation now, i can say since since inflation has continuing to get worse, the hawkish fed whether it's for the right or for the wrong is likely going to very seriously.

Consider a 50 basis. Point hike and i think the market is going to price that in i think, once this 50 basis, point hike is announced you're going to alleviate that downwards pressure. You'll likely have some form of a sharp sort of move to the downside, followed by a recovery. I think that's pretty decently likely.

I think you might see that uh genuinely come to fruition, but i wanted to own my mistake. I wanted to discuss where i think i went wrong. What i think it meant in the in the grand scheme of things uh and that's sort of my reaction to the market, so the price in you know met expectations. I think that's what it is.

I think, maybe even they they thought it was overpriced in. So you get the initial reaction of a push to the upside, followed by the dump end of day. This to me is the uncertainty behind that 50 basis. Point hike, i think, that's genuinely what it is.

I think this has not disappeared if, if anything uh the risk of this is actually increased. So that's something to keep in the back of your mind, and this brings us into amc. Amc had a rough day today and obviously the spy having a rough day. The market having a rough day is not going to help amc's case uh.

You can see it right. Amc moves alongside the spot. You click on the five minute chart. You can even go to the one minute chart.

You can look at uh at amc and you can see that it pushed up at the exact time that inflation data was released. You know 8 30 made a big move up. This is based on the fact that amc is in the same algorithms, that move markets up and down. So if the market's moving up amc typically will have more upwards pressure if the spy is taking a big dookie on the couch.

Amc will probably take a big duke on the couch but there's a question to be asked right. Spy actually uh ripped into the open, but amc went down. Why was there this uh inversion, so to speak, right, spy goes up. Amc goes down well what? What about the markets tracking themselves? This is where i want to talk about something big, and that is the spread widening.

I've talked about this a lot the last week. I'm sure that people are probably tired of listening to this, and this is probably one thing, i'm going to say too every week from now on. I i think it's going to be friday, i'm going to have a hard set date soon, i'm going to announce it either on twitter or discord or whatever i'm going to have a weekly sort of uh sit down. Talk have dialogue and discuss uh ideas together, where the did my stuff go.

What the hell! Oh here we go. I'm gon na have a sit down sort of talk about uh. You know whatever people are thinking about right for now. It's gon na be fridays at uh, 2 p.m, central standard time to cst.

So we can discuss these sort of things. So if you guys want to have open dialogue, that is uh one million percent an opportunity. But to get back to my main point, uh i've discussed a lot. The spread, the cost, essentially between calls and puts calls being more expensive than puts.

You saw a divergence in that uh in which puts were almost equal in cost to calls uh. Last friday. You know coming off that move. You look at the the chart.

You can see. Amc had a green day actually coming off of that there was some upwards pressure. In my opinion, that's because market makers started selling puts instead of selling calls. Today is a different story.

The gap has widened exponentially and uh i'll show you this here, really quick. If you look at the 17.5 at the money strike 78 cents for a put, you look at the at the money strike for a call, it's 93 cents uh or for the same 17.569 uh. You go out. One strike for a point.

It's 50. right! It's very obvious: the calls are more expensive than puts right now, and this to me is all about demand. Now, where does the demand come from right right now, super super deep out the money cost. This makes me want to bang my head against the wall.

This, i think we can all sort of agree on this right. We can all. We can all look at this and say that this is not good. 52 943 contracts are currently open.

Interest for the 60 strike expiring this thursday, 14 april 2022. This is not good. This is bad, i don't know who's who's playing this you know maybe some of it's retail, maybe some of its institutions. Maybe some of it's just market makers selling calls could be a whole lot of different sort of variables uh, but this inherently is going to create a lot of selling pressure, and i want to tell you why delta decay, what is happening here is, as these get Closer and closer to expiration the delta, which is how these things increase in value decreases, and market makers uh, will then and therefore start pushing selling pressure into the stock.

This is so bad. This is not good. Uh options are important. Don't get me wrong? I will not, i will die on that hill.

I do genuinely believe. Options are important, but if you use that it's a tool right, let's say that options are a hammer and you want to use a hammer to build the deck right. You're gon na you're gon na have some good success. You're gon na be able to build the deck.

Just fine you're, trying to use a hammer to apply a band-aid to your knee you're. Just gon na up your knee right right now. The options chain at amc looks like you're trying to hammer a band-aid onto a mosquito bite. It's not good.

This looks up. I mean it's bad, it's bad! It's bad! It's bad! It's bad! Where you actually get true value in calls and gamma, ramping and gamma. Squeezing is when you are decently close to at the money or slightly out the money. 60 strikes are lottery tickets.

It's not good! This! This inherently is a picture-perfect example of what will imbalance the cost uh between a call and a put, and i'm gon na, be straight with you. I think the ramifications of this are that you will see selling pressure into the close of the week uh. This does not apply if you were a buy and holder. You know if you were, if you were simply buying holding and you uh, you are completely emotionally stable.

My actual recommendation would just be to click off my video never watch my stuff. You know, i think you are genuinely if you are, if you are kumbaya, you are chilling, you are at peace, live in peace man and just look at the chart set some price alerts, whatever uh, if you feeling balanced, you know, i think this is an opportunity Where we can look at the chart - and we can say uh, this is something to expect. You have your own financial decisions that you can make. I'm not here to tell you to buy.

I'm not here to tell you to sell you have to do what you got to do at the end of the day uh, but this this looks kind of rough, especially alongside the spy looking decently weak, so uh, i i maybe i have a little wolf here. Yeah, i don't know, there's there's some. I see a mixture of opinions across sort of finn, twit right now, whatever uh and what amc is gon na. Do some people think it's gon na spring off of 17 bucks.

Some people think it's gon na drop to nine. Some people think it's uh, it's it's gon na drop to 15.. Some people think it'll run to 20., but max payne right now is at 20 and i'll. Tell you what max payne at 20 on amc.

I i i personally think it's probably going to hit for market makers. I think that there's gon na collect a lot of premium uh, there's a lot of open interest right now on calls. So it looks very attractive for market makers to collect premium to sell calls uh on on those contracts, and i think it's just gon na be a rough week. That's the absolute truth! Knowing that you know that's my opinion, you have to formulate your own.

Your own opinion uh, if you're looking at the chart and you're paying attention to this on a day-to-day basis, and it it's of interest to you do what you got to do. I'm not here to tell you what to do. I'm here to tell you my thoughts and what i think is important to look at ultimately, uh, that's what i think is important with that being said. You know i i don't want to spend any more time on that, because looking at that makes me really uh.

Really frustrated to be friends quite frank, you know i think it'd make anybody frustrated. I feel it probably makes you guys feel frustrated son of a i. Ah i hate looking at that. Ah yeah, those 60 strikes man.

Let's talk about the amc and spy relation. If the chop continues right, why is the spy gon na matter in the grand scheme of things 50 basis, point hike, uncertainties and the way that this is going to affect the stock uh if the uncertainty continues and you continue to see more chop, which is what I personally think, is going to happen a lot of slings shot around back and forth back and forth back and forth, but the generalized trend being downtrend until a 50 basis. Point height comes to fruition. That's going to affect the amc weakness across the spy weakness across iwm is going to make it difficult for any stocks without a negative beta to have upwards pressure negative beta, essentially referring to uh when the broad market moves down, that stock will typically move up it.

Just means that the buyers of that stock typically do not follow the the the momentum or the uh direction of the broad market uh. I think that to be the case. Unless, however, there is a crash, i think, if there is a market crash, the negative beta in amc will likely move this stock to the upside based on short positions covering their stuff. I think that would actually happen we're not quite in a market crash scenario.

Uh. That's that's a long ways out. I do think you, you could see some form of a correction until 50 basis, point hike happens but nonetheless uh. If the chop continues until a 50 basis, point hike actually is announced or is uh executed.

Whatever uh, you could see some downwards pressure and that's my opinion. I could be wrong. I've been wrong in the past. I was wrong today, you know, and with that being said, you know, i think, that's that's why it's important to be able to have these conversations and analyze why you're wrong go over things, try to make predictions uh, but to me the answer is always keep showing Up to the plate and try to learn - and that's what i'm trying to do here, you know is make sense of the craziness that's happening every day in the market, so uh, that's what i've got to say about amc! That's what i've got to say about the spy.

The play of the day for tomorrow is going to be the spy for me. I think this is actually a pretty decently clean setup. I don't have a bias in either direction. I'm not gon na state, one uh, in fact, that's something i'm actually gon na work on moving forward is, is just looking at it black and white.

Looking at this black and white, the white being call scenario, a long call scenario, red being a put scenario, uh long put, meaning you buy to open, sell to close a position uh. This is what i would look for for either scenario. If you want to drop trend lines right, this is coming straight from my chart. I start at the top of this gap, fill spot right here, i'm actually gon na change the marker to white.

Just so it's a little easier to see top of this gap fill right here. You just connect the dots as so. What you're going to notice is: there's a trend line, a falling level of support, falling level of resistance, connect, dots, dot, false breakout right here, dot, dot dot. You have a trend, and i think that, following this trend, you can see it bounces back and forth between this falling resistance, this falling resistance and this falling support.

I think you could very easily see this. Do one of two things a try to bounce off of this uh falling support as so, and i would look for an entry on a long call off of the bounce at the open to ride to the top uh. As always, i have sort of a four-step process whenever i look at a trade entry plan, stop-loss plan runners, meaning i'm taking profits along the way on that trade and then a full exit. My full exit plan would be in a picture-perfect scenario at the top of this falling level of uh resistance right.

I look to take profits every 25 or so 25, 50 75 and probably have a quarter of my position left if it is up 75. At that point in time, take your full exit: stop loss about 10 to 15, a point scenario to me: let's get rid of all this this stuff, let's go back a little ways. A put scenario to me is going to be the red line. Looking at the red line same same premises, right 25, 50, 75 percent for runners, 10, 50 stop loss whatever is uh very similar, but it's the downside.

It would be a breakdown of this falling level of support right and i would look for an entry after the breakdown a retest. I want to see a retest of that falling support line and a rejection, and i would take a long put a long put position off of that rejection, meaning a buy to open cell to close bet that the the spy would move to the downside. Uh i'd be looking for that. That's personally my opinion.

I think this is a pretty clean set up. I think you're, either gon na have a hard bounce up or a big rejection down uh, and you can make money on both sides of that trade, and that is gon na be my personal play of the day tomorrow. Uh - and i will review that in tomorrow's video - if anybody wants to uh to check that out so uh, that's sort of my analysis, that's my thoughts on everything sort of going on right now, uh rough day, uh kind of a tough day to look at uh. You know the the the amc options chain, but if there's any take away, you know if i'm to close with anything.

The big thing is this: i was in a space call yesterday on twitter. I'm actually really happy about this. I was in a space call where about 800 people at the most uh, the highest point of uh people participating 800 people were in this space called talking and trying to learn and just kind of have an open dialogue about about amc in the market and education And that was one of the coolest moments ever for me, and i want to tell you why it reminded me that retail investors are able to accomplish a lot if they take the time to remember uh, who the real enemy is every single day you wake up. In the stock market, the enemy is the guy at these market maker locations right, it's the guy that you're trying to take premium from it's the guys that you want to punish for pushing this stock down and, ultimately, to beat these guys retail investors working together collectively, As a community to learn to grow, to educate, to evolve independently as people right and then to come together and share that information with each other in terms of what you have learned, it's really where power lies.

I think this grassroots movement, where people came together to fight for something they genuinely believed in uh, grows and evolves every day and it ebbs and flows just like the market does high points low points whatever, but it reminded me of exactly that that there's always room To grow that people are hungry to learn and they are hungry to win and, most importantly, they are hungry to make money, and i think it's important to always come back to that. To remember why you were here in the first place. You know here to make a difference here to hopefully help your neighbor uh and here to make money and there's opportunity to do that every single day and uh. I suppose that's what i've got for this video.

I just kind of wanted to share that with you. So until tomorrow appreciate you guys catch y'all, later much love, light taps and peace.