Well, biden came out today and discussed the current state of inflation. If there's any grand take away that i've i've gathered so far, it's uh that politicians are are pretty disconnected uh go figure from the average uh american. He came out and gave his thoughts on why inflation is the way that it is and his plans to move forward uh in the second piece of that you know his plans to move forward. He he used a whole bunch of words to basically say a whole bunch of nothing.

So i wanted to take more time to focus on the first part of that he stated uh his belief in what was to cause inflation. So let me just show you guys the clip really quick on uh on biden stating what he believes to be the root causes of inflation, we'll go from there and then i'll dive into what's really at play. Uh for for the united states here right now, because it is absolutely not what he claims uh claims that it is. Let me change over the sources.

Uh all right bam, patient, we're clear about the problem. There are two leading causes of inflation, we're seeing today. The first cause of inflation is a once in a century pandemic. Not only did it shut down our global economy, it threw the supply chains and demand completely out of whack, especially in countries where more effective recovery responses, uh uh weren't available, especially in those sectors that rely on semiconductors.

These supply challenges have been further uh hampered by the onset of delta and omicron viruses and you've all seen it you've all felt it, and this year we have a second cause, a second cause, mr putin's war in ukraine. You saw we saw in march that 60. I won't make you listen to any more of that, but his two takeaways are uh that kovid and putin created the problem that we see with inflation today. In fact, he went so far as to call it the putin price hike, as if we did not know that inflation was on its way.

Uh. Presently, you know fun fact. Actually, the fed about a year ago in february of 2021, came out and stated that inflation was transitory, meaning that it was already on the radar for them. So to me this is a pretty simple attempt: they're attempting to uh gaslight the average american make them believe.

Something that is not actually the case, shift blame to another party and that's really not what's at hand here right, inflation's, actually pretty simple uh. Unless you want to add a third category down here in which you've got you know, this putin causes the putin, putin price hikes, somebody how you got cost push. Inflation demand, pull inflation, i've got the putin price hike inflation. This is a.

This is a third and new category of inflation that we uh we're witnessing right now, but there's really something much more simple that you can actually address here in terms of what caused the problems that we're dealing with right now, you've got demand, pull inflation, which is Basically started by cutting interest rates, uh and increased money supply, but wouldn't you know it? If you look at interest rates, you look back to 2019 up to 2021. This is the start of the covenera, and maybe maybe you can give a little bit of credit here in terms of that being accurate. But it's really not that simple uh you saw interest rates go down right. This is coming from uh.

The fed 2.5 percent was the metric all the way down to zero uh slight of the way into 2020.. So it's very obvious that you saw a decrease in overall rates. We had a decrease in rates, not a rate hike. It was a rate drop uh.

This would be the opposite of a rate hike which is supposed to combat inflation. Uh a drop in in in rates would do the opposite, it would increase inflation, and alongside this you saw a massive massive amount of money that was printed. Money supply went up drastically. 16 trillion dollars, plus it's actually slightly more than 16 trillion dollars, but a bunch of money has been printed right.

You combine these two things. Add them together. What do you get a big, a big storm for demand, pole inflation, but we can go further than that and show you that we have - and this is probably why we see such terrible, terrible inflation metrics right now, there's more you've got cost push inflation, which is Caused by higher wages, devaluation increase in vat, which is value added, tax, uh and inflation expectations. Well, what are you going to notice here, devaluation? What is the american dollar been doing since i don't know 2019 down? Oh really kind of checked that box wage growth since 2021.

Oh strange way up, this would hit right at about six percent. Wage growth probably check that box increasing vat, which is value-added tax. You go back to 2021, my birthday by the way june 21. This article came out, the value-added tax brings in billions of dollars for other countries, but the us doesn't have one - and this was as of june 20, 2021 uh june 21.

2021. You come over here now to the official website for the government. What do you see? Vat and sales tax rates in the united states for 2022., the current united states v.a.t value out of taxes 10. So what does that mean? We went from 0 to 10, so i guess we could probably check that box increase in v8.

Well, i'd say a you know: a 1 000 increase is probably worth a nickel, so so far, we've got to cut in interest rates, increase money, supply, higher wages, devaluation increase in vit and inflation expectations way. Up now i got ta say whoever's: inflation expectations right now are two percent you're hilarious. That's some funny stuff, uh 10-year expected inflation and real inflation and risk uh premia. Also going up if inflation expectations are up well, we could probably check this box.

So what is this telling us? It's telling us that inflation is currently a multifaceted problem. It's telling us that biden is flat out wrong, not even remotely right. This is not a putin. Inflation is in the putin price hikes.

This isn't caused by just covid. It's about response right response from politicians. Response from the federal reserve did not match what was necessary and what are we doing to pay for it today? Well, the broad market looks like a dead cat. It just everything, looks pretty damn bad.

I mean you you're, watching some gnarly gnarly gnarly sell-offs happen right now. We've been at a high of 480 and now we've gone all the way down to under 400 bucks. I think you can see 380 in the near future. It's uh it's insane.

I mean it genuinely is, and what makes me the most frustrated is uh that and these these politicians think that people are that stupid. I don't know uh instead of the answer seems pretty simple to me. Instead of just saying, putin, price hikes and cove would cause these things. Why don't we talk about the metrics? Why don't we dive into the metrics so that we can have tangible data with tangible solutions right? You can look at devaluation and study and say hey.

How do you combat devaluation? Well, xyz? Oh, you can address that wage growth. How do we combat slowing down wage growth or how do we combat uh the inflationary sort of uh manner of wage growth? You can look at the metrics. You can see what you have to do: interest rates at least they're doing something here: increasing interest rates, money, supply kind of combats that money supply problem expected influence. You know, expect inflation.

How do you manage this? You can look at all these data points and make some real deductions and try to manage it, but it just doesn't feel like that's the case here and uh, like i mentioned before, biden spent the majority of this just saying a whole lot of words without really Saying anything at all uh, he said this is important to me. Uh inflation's got to be managed, things are out of control. I know that you guys this is actually a quote coming directly from from the uh the interview that he just did that i found to be out there. I know you got to be frustrated, i know i could taste it.

I could taste it on my tongue. It made me think of uh uh, step brothers when seth rogen is in the room with the two boys and they fart. He says i could taste it on my tongue, stinky, onions, man, uh, there's just it's just not good enough man. I i really don't think that uh the situation's being handled properly - and i think that you're just gon na continue to see sort of this pain until uh good metrics come out.

Hopefully, tomorrow, cpi uh, inflation is getting better uh. That's really what we're hoping for at this point is that it at least stagnates, but outside of interest rates. You know and and biden pushing to get some new people into the fed office, um kind of just the really poor address to to inflation. I was hoping for better, you can hope for better but expect the worst.

I suppose i don't know what else you can really say there. So i suppose that's what i got for you for me and dale he's a sleepy boy for me and dale hope. You all enjoy your day, we'll be back uh back later catch y'all, later much lovely taps, peace.