Damn it, ah, no, i was muted what a goofball ass thing to do. What's up youtube, how you doing boys and girls i fixed it, i fixed it. I know i know i didn't realize i was muted great to be here hope, you're, all hanging ten. It's your boy, trey back in the building baby gon na give a couple minutes for people to roll on in jazz, hi son, hi son, how you doing son, it's good to see you son, ah baby, it's friday friday, is for bucket hats and unbuttoned collared shirts.

We out here vibing dude, we're out here: vibing the market might be red, but we can vibe. Nonetheless, that's what it's all about smoking or joking good to see you, air, ryan, nathan, cajun matt, burns bucket hats. Oh now, you're understanding! Now you get it! The bucket hat season is in dude. That's what we're here for bro for sure for sure guys in case you're, just tuning in in case you're new here.

Welcome it's great to have you. We typically wait a couple minutes to get things on the road uh. Just so that people can pop on into chat - and we can uh uh save as much time as possible and only have to say things a few times instead of 10 or 20. uh.

So let us take the first 5 10 minutes to catch up with you guys see, what's going on, see how you're doing uh red day in the market. Obviously that has translated over to a couple different things. It's something that i uh, i was nervous would happen since about may 27th and sure enough here we are uh, but time time shall tell how this plays out. I've got my opinion i'll share it with you guys, ultimately uh.

We all have to come to our own conclusion and i'll share share with mine is so rain like a down in florida, brennan man uh, it's cloudy here, it's not beautiful by any means, but it's it's decent. Actually, it's kind of chilly 69 degrees 69. Can we get 69 a chat, bro? That's! What's up, that's what's up, i'm colorblind, but don't tell my portfolio that uh yeah i got you covered man see the thing is you can actually invert colors, sometimes on charts? So if you like uh, if you don't like the color red, you can just change it to green you'll, be okay, you'll be just chilling, maybe just chilling. If oklahoma does get hit by weather, all right, i'm prepared the bucket hat.

You might think this is to protect you from rain, but in reality you take this thing off. You can catch the rain and you can slurp it up like a cat. You'll be good to go. Dude uh i'll be rocking cooking, with crisco muggy as hell in uh huntsville, yeah yeah, it's not too muggy here, oklahoma actually stays pretty dry.

Believe it or not, uh, not a lot of water around here. So the humidity doesn't get too rough, don't get too bad at all. If i'm ever back around lubbock yeah, i got you man, gamer low i'd, be down. That sounds like a blast sounds like a good time.

What's up pew pew, how you doing dad oh yeah, but we're big bucket hat kind of guy? Oh yeah, oh yeah, man, look at coot, hey! I want everybody in chat to drop an f for cooch you're saying this. I can't wait until bucket hats. Go back out of style, i can't wait. I can't wait until bald is back in style all right.

I can't i can't wait until until un until you stop with your stupid jokes. How about how about that bucket? Hats are the they're, a vibe man? It's like business, but casual or maybe it's like casual business. I don't know watching the hummingbirds hell. Yeah man don't mess with cats trey, they steal your breath at night.

Santiago. My cat has been an all day. I can tell he's feeling better. So here's a quick story: here's a quick story, my cat uh, believe it or not.

I i didn't know this was a thing until literally a couple days ago, but cats can apparently get herpes uh, so titan has herpes. He must have picked it up on the street and uh uh. He. He started running into some problems with his eyes, so he was like leaking out of his nose leaking out of his eyes and his mouth was like foaming and - and i brought him into the vet like three or four days ago early in the morning, because i Woke up to him literally leaking on my my my chest, because i typically don't sleep with a shirt on my my blanket was tucked up to just beneath my nipples and he was sleeping like here right on my chest.

His head was laid down. I woke up to him literally drooling, like his eyes, nose mouth all drooling onto me. I was like this is not good, so i went to the vet. Er immediately brought him in uh.

I brought in a piece of his literal in a little baggie and i went in and i said, hey my cat's leaking out of his eyes leaking out of his uh, his nose looking out of his mouth and uh. This was on memorial day so monday and the vet says uh yeah. Your cat probably has herpes, he tested his uh and it came back positive for herpes and uh. He was like yeah, your cat's got herpes, but the problem is this: right: titan has only lived in two places.

One of them has been uh outside as a street cat, and the other has been literally in my apartment, with nothing else other than franklin or dale. Franklin passed away because of fip: it's a rare cat disease that uh they can, they can get whatever and the other was uh was, that was frank and the other one's dale and dale also has herpes, which means that fran titan probably got it while uh. He was a street cat, so he probably just had it and it was dormant because viruses like that can just lay dormant. They gave him some eye drops.

They gave him uh some oral medicine and now he's looking like a million bucks. Aren't you a little dick? He always looks pissed off. Are you always mad? Are you always mad? Why are you always mad? There you go lay down. Ah chemistry, bro fill the hat with kraken and chug it and then no charts today.

Just map skill, lessons dude. I am the best map reader, okay. This is what i went to college, for i went to college for that stuff, but titan's feeling a lot better. Now it took like four days of pumping that medicine and now he's now he's back on his a-game, the butcher.

Youtuber just tells his people that the execution order is killing the hedges and nothing is happening as always. What's your thoughts, uh sesame's nari, i hate to say this right, i'm not the i told you so kind of guy, so i'm not even gon na say that what i'm going to say is every time think back historically, every time there's been a date attached with A ton of hype: what has been the outcome? It's almost the same, every single time, i'm telling you i'm telling you there are so many ways that that legislation can be skirted around. Like we've, seen like the nscc trip, uh double o threes uh, the double o sevens, the double o nines, the double o 69s we've seen every piece of paperwork on the moon come out and land on on the freaking earth and they can get skated around. They just can you know uh i pay attention to charts.

I watch charts, i watch lines uh, you can ding me, you cannot ding me, that's whatever uh and i try to make sense of what's happening in the economy, because, in my opinion, i think what is ultimately going to make amy move is the end of a Bear market i watch the gradual improvement of fundamentals, the gradual decline of the economy and they're doing this they're converging they're diverging, i should say uh they're, going in opposite directions, the company's getting better while the economy is getting worse. That tells me everything i need to know. It tells me that the reason price is where it is right now is. The short seller.

Narrative is based on an economy that is presently failing and when the economy is not failing, you're going to watch a reversal take place. That is why, every day the spy has been green, amy's been green. Every time the spy's been read, amy's been red, that's just sort of the correlation that we have and i think that uh it was great due diligence. I read the research behind uh the executive order and everything that people thought, but, to be quite frank with you, you know uh, i i just it never ends well.

Man dates just never seem to end. Well, i'm not about it. That's not. My thing.

Trey gave titan herpes, hey man, he was, he was trying to eat my cereal, oh man. I don't think that. I don't think that uh no dates, no dd is the answer right. I think that education is the answer.

I think that people should be learning but uh to to sit here and say, like mo ass on june 3rd. You know what that sounds like that sounds like mo ass on march 3rd. That sounds like that sounds like any time. There's been a date.

It's the same exact we just got ta be careful. Man get off my keyboard, get off my keyboard. There you go all right. I like to wait a couple minutes: we've waited 10 minutes.

Uh people have started rolling the chat so welcome if you're new here. This is the trader show. It is great to have you. My name is trace trades.

I otherwise known as trey collins, uh and today we're gon na be watching the stock market. I've got a couple things sort of lined up that i'd like to discuss. Uh probably number one on the list is the the s p 500's rejection off of, as you can see by the title, the .236 fibonacci level. I've talked about this for quite some time.

The past couple of shows uh. I've said that this is a level that i'm watching for, and i think it's going to be a pretty critical and important level uh, as we continue on with the way that things trade. Why does the s p 500 rejecting off this matter, we'll discuss that as well? Uh biden came out today and discussed a couple things which i find to be peculiar uh, one of them being that apparently, debt is going down while personal savings are going up. So that'd be probably pretty interesting to discuss, and then we have to talk about amc in the chart levels.

Uh we got to go over how things are looking right now i'll give you guys an update on how i think things are. You know currently going in direction so uh yeah, that's about what we got. If you guys have any questions, i do read chat. I try to interact with you guys as much as i can uh and we can uh sort of look through that and that's that's sort of my thought process yeah so welcome it's great to be here great to be back happy friday, uh and i am gon Na be pouring back a little bit of cracking today, maybe we'll take it right out of the hat huh.

Should we do a bucket a bucket uh, a bucket drink, just just slurp it up. I might have to flip this. The other way it's friday. After all, now we're cooking now we're cooking baby.

I got ta. Do i. There was a guy that i lived with as a kid uh. His name was bart and he would always wear his hats like this, where the front the lip of it was like curved up and the sides were just straight down, it always looked so goofy.

I was like oh okay, whatever man but anywho. Let's start off with the spy huh is that the style gilligan is that a style is that the tv show yo bro, you have you seen chris norland's latest video? No, i haven't chris norland. Oh, i think i looked this dude up. I watched him on uh uh twitch the other day, yeah, hey mom.

I wish there was sidewalks out here. Yeah me too. Did you walk yeah? Oh nice yeah, but it's a nasty mess. Yeah yeah i stopped at the bakery get down nice.

You got a donut. They didn't have donuts there. Oh, let's go, i got a scone and i got this lemon blueberry thing want some, i'm good for now. Thank you.

You can just leave it on the counter uh chris norlin in case you're curious has the opposite. Opinion of uh of amc he's talked quite a bit about uh. How he personally believes that the fundamentals of amc are basically destined to fail. I obviously share a differing opinion than this: guy does uh pretty decently click baity titles amc, stock, 250, dollar squeeze sooner.

The entire time is just kind of talking which is whatever uh he's. Not my cup of tea. I've watched him and i i see what he's trying to do and i'm not on board with it so anywho, let's get into it. This is what i wanted to discuss today.

Uh s p 500 right we're gon na look into this, and then i'm gon na look at the amc chart and see what uh and what we got rocking. So i've got a video coming out later today to talk about it in greater detail. If you have questions about how fibonacci retracements work, i go over it in the video that's going to be coming out at 4, 30 p.m, central standard time uh, but there's a trend - that's been taking place for quite some time now, right, uh, and that is how Bear markets typically take place. I said this yesterday, but what what is important to note is that history doesn't repeat itself, but it very often rhymes and what i think that means is.

You can look back historically and see sort of how previous trends in the market have taken place in in the direction they pick and how they make the moves, and you can sort of base uh take take those previous movements and base predictions off of that. So, there's something that i saw happen in 2008 as well as the coveted flash crash that caught my eye, and it was that once it broke the 382 fib level, it bounced up to the 236. And i don't know if you guys remember this drop a gorilla in the chat, if you remember this, but the day that it dropped down to the 386 president uh presently the 382. I said that it was going to bottom at 380 and it was going to violently bounce who remembers that.

I think i tweeted it out uh. I tweeted out that at 380 is going to violently bounce and that's because it did it in 2008 and they did it during the coven uh coveted flash crash right. These are both things that sort of rhymed with the previous trend. Well, the previous trend for both of these things, after that was that it came up and retested the 236, which is this right.

The 138 dollar mark tested that and rejected. If you look back here, did the exact same thing bounced off the 382 came up to the two three six reject it, and then you saw 100 retracement uh ensue shortly after that, so based on that trend right, based on the fact that that history, typically rhymes And it rhymes very well uh what happened here is if you look at the hourly candle, this was in the pre-market, so it won't show up on a daily candle uh. You got that tap it tapped, literally with a single one-hour candle that 382-236 level and reject it off of it, and that to me is very indicative of what i think is to come now. There is a little bit of hope here right.

This could be sort of the tap and then maybe it'll come back up and i'll draw out what it would look like for the best case scenario uh. It could tap. This come back up, retest it. It may even break out temporarily.

However, if it hangs out at this line and doesn't get a gap straight up here, uh, it is going to do this. I i genuinely do believe that it is going to uh shoot back down uh and continue on with the bearish trend that we have seen now. Does this mean that you should sell everything that you own right as an investor? I think that is a very stupid decision. History has proven itself over and over and over and over and over that bear markets end and when bear markets end uh, the buyers are the winners and the sellers are the losers, and i stand by that and i think that we can all sort of look At the math behind some of the companies that we love and see that they are actually doing very well in comparison to uh other blue chip stocks, that sort of exist right think about this.

For a second, how many companies have you guys seen drop an f if you've seen this? How many blue chip companies have you seen that have missed on earnings over the over q1 right? How many companies? I just want to see this out of curiosity, how many companies that you guys follow. Have you seen miss earnings, and then you come back to the fact that amc beat and then it's a fundamentally improving company right, that's important! This is important to know right when fundamentals are continuously improving and stock prices going down alongside a dropping and failing economy. That tells you everything that you really need to know about the present moment. Buyers are the winners during a bear market.

The losers are the sellers. Long term, every single time as a trader uh, if you were, if you were trading the market right uh, the vix, is kind of your best friend. The vix is gon na. Tell you when there's uh a lot of volatility and a lot of risk on the table, and this should give you an inclination of uh when to sort of manage size and and uh, be careful about uh how how you're taking things so uh.

I see all those f's in chat there. You go boys and girls. So that's my thoughts. I think that 382 236 uh rejection if it falls through it's gon na.

Look a lot like this. It's gon na come back down and i am watching for a tap. Probably about here first at 400 bucks and then i think it's going to tap this line. If it breaks that line, i think it comes down to 387 387.

I think you watch 380 once again, so that's what i'm watching for i. I think this is very realistic and this is based off of uh, the the flash crash, and it's also based off of 2008, having very similar chart setups and very similar uh uh. It rhymes the history rhymes in this in this particular instance. Alongside that, economically speaking, we really haven't improved much uh, if you guys have any uh qualms with that you'd like to discuss.

If you have a counter argument, please uh drop it in chat, i'll, read it and then we can look into it. I'd be very open to that and uh having a perspective changed uh. Sorry, i mean to promote anyone, but it annoys me a lot when someone talks about uh, don't worry about it. Titan man see i'm open to criticism right when people uh when people criticize me they come with constructive feedback, that's actually useful.

I enjoy that. I don't mind uh criticism. Criticism is a good thing. It's important for growth, not all criticism is bad and not all criticism is uh ill-willed.

I do mind criticism when people just hate you and they they just throw in your face because they hate you. That's that's completely different. Mike hunt in i'm not reading that robbie yeah, that's what happened ape nuts chris said apes are idiots basically, and how could you think they were stupid with a name like ape nut69? That is a genius name. Everybody remember remember if you say the word fibonacci at least three times a couple things happen, you get smarter, your dick gets bigger if you're a girl - and you don't have a dick, your dick gets bigger uh you automatically probably make about five hundred dollars.

Alongside that, you can piss a straight arc into the toilet. You don't even have to aim it. It's just like, like uh like like ai program, to make it into the bowl. These sort of things happen once once you start saying: fibonacci uh so get used to it, get used to being smart check out efoy stock coming from peters, yeah i'll.

Take a peek at this quick up 55 on the day. Volume is very, very, very high. I want to see what i would be careful of with this. Just keep this in the back of your mind when you're looking at efoi, it is up drastically there's two big things that i always say.

If you're trying to buy into this company right now uh, you have to acknowledge that you are late and you have to acknowledge that. There's more risk on the table saying that you're late is admitting that you will not make as much money and admitting that there's more risk on the table is admitting that there's a chance that you walk away significantly worse off than you started. Uh short interest is up significantly it's up. 208 short interest.

Is 9.41 utilization, not maxed costs to borrow pretty high i'd. Imagine this comes from the the drastic burn. That shorts are feeling right now. Shares on loan increase of 152 goes alongside that short interest change.

A lot of pressure on that position right now from a chart perspective, efoy has a lot of volume to back up the move. Today, that is a decently strong move. Uh, i'm actually not that mad there's a little bit of a topping tail here, but it could be worse that could be drastically worse. I'm gon na look at this from a levels perspective really quick hold on in one.

Second, i'm gon na change this to the weekly. Actually, i think you got a little more upside. I think you actually have the potential for a little more upside, no joke yeah. Based on this, this candle, you got the volume followed through today.

Uh, pretty strong, pretty strong, daily uh hasn't quite hit this level yet which is historically speaking, a level that it rejects. That only thing i'd be watching, for the only thing that makes me nervous is volume exhaustion. This is drastically outside of the norm of uh uh, the realm of normality for this stock. You typically don't see this much volume on the on the ticker, so be careful.

Uh volume exhaustion is, is, is a thing and be watching for intraday massive rejections with a lot of volume. We haven't quite got that yet you got a you got a rejection here uh this could end up being a double top setup or a bull trap setup. So you got ta watch you got ta watch with these squeeze plays you're watching shorter time frames for sure. So there's that uh i saw.

I can't believe i fell for that mike mike's hunt, dude son of a anywho. Now that i've read off a couple of those, how do i feel about sundial? That's not for me personally, easy sundial is not for me uh. I think that it is a if you want to play weed stocks. They, the they're, based out of canada, from what i remember by recollect correctly uh they're, already legalized, right.

Canadian marijuana is already legalized, and i would actually imagine that if the united states from a federal level, legalizes marijuana from a fundamental perspective that would probably equate to less capital generated uh for the company, because you're just gon na have less people that are dragging across The borders right now, i do think that, despite that, what if and if and when the united states legalizes marijuana at a federal level, you are going to get an initial pop just because it is a marijuana stock. Ah, it's possible, i think, actually likely but long term different game different game to me. Uh with that being said, let's go over the the amy chart here, really quick. I want to pull this up and show you guys what i'm seeing.

Uh amc today does have a bit of a bottoming tail and this is actually pulling a decent amount of strength from if you uh look at gamestop down about 2.17 on the day, and it's got a topping tail bottoming tail uh decently, low volume. It is friday, after all, fridays are typically lower volume days down about two percent amc down about 5.19 uh. You have a very similar sort of setup. I'm gon na get rid of all this extra drawing stuff, topping tail bottoming tail low volume, push to the downside uh.

What i'm watching here that i find to be the most peculiar is this sort of gradual bowl right? So what i'm seeing that's very important is this very slow bowl effect that you're having on the volume volume is slowing down as it's going downwards, and you have this bowl taking place where it is trying to hold on to essentially that 618 fib level that i Have talked about many times, so i'm gon na come over here to the 15-minute chart. I'm going to show you this because i talked about it uh pretty religiously before that is that 1273 mark now it has had a couple of breakdowns beneath that 1273 mark. You could say this is one of them right, uh. It has come down to about 12, 20 or so to then whiplash back up above 1273, which is that 618 fib level uh, and it's currently fighting to reclaim that again.

In which case, i think you could see a bounce now this to me is is looking like the opportunity for believe it or not. If it gets that follow-through bounce, a bear, trap, setup uh, and i wouldn't just say that, however, if the spy come monday, uh bleeds off based on the retracement that it got today to the downside. I don't think it'll matter and i think that amc will will sell off alongside it. What you're watching for ultimately, is this trend line right here, so you got the end of this downtrend right trades sideways for a little while channel channel channel channel the size that it wants to go down again and now what you're waiting for is a break of This falling line touch point touch.

Point touch point touch point once it breaks this, i would expect a decent size move to the upside uh and a continuation on as long as it holds the 618 at 1273. I think that you could see a continuation off of this bottom rally. This uh george w set up, but it is going to require strength from the s p. 500.

The spy uh for that follow through amc, ortex data, i'm gon na look at this. I'm not gon na spend a lot of time on it uh as there likely isn't a significant change. Yet what we have is a 14 cost to borrow. That is probably the most notable change.

This creep up is actually very good to see. I'm happy about that 23.43. Current short interest on free float, uh 179 million total shares on loan, which comes out to 35 of the float being borrowed out now. Let that sink in remember 90 of this company is owned by retail investors.

34.84 of this is on loan, so where is this coming from? Probably a lot of this is from institutions, and then some of it is probably from retail investors who uh have share lending turned on, which is something that you can by the way turn off. If you would like to do so, uh, depending on your broker, i would probably call your broker it's not a bad thing to do. If you call your broker and say hey, do i have share lending turned on? Can you turn this off and they say? Yes, you can or no you can't uh. You can respond accordingly in both directions.

If they say no, you can't you should probably switch brokers, they say. Yes, you can you're good to go you're, not your share's not being lent out uh. So that's kind of the update, that's what i'm watching for, i think if it breaks down beneath uh, i'm watching this 12 22 level. I think you're going to see it come down to 1166..

That's the bearcase bolt case in the short term. Is it breaks above this falling trend line and i think you're gon na watch it come up and retest that 1348 level uh, which is the 50 retracement line uh? That's my my thought process on how amy is presently sitting uh for the market, so not too, not too bad troy. Please watch the last video of clear value, attacks very important, slash, informative and would love to hear your opinion in another of your videos. Thank you.

Always do you want me to watch it right now, cordoba thanks for the thanks for the 20 man. I appreciate that clear value tax, the last video of clear value, tax federal reserve will cause a stock market crash and then a massive stock market rally. We share the exact same opinion him and i share the literally exact same opinion: hell yeah man uh, it's 12 minutes long. I don't know if you guys want to watch it right now.

Isn't there a gap bill at nine bucks? I can check it out. We're gon na clean this up a bit. Let me peek teeny teeny, teeny, tiny gap, teeny tiny one right here - super duper small. Where did that? Go here really small gap down to about 8 20.

good phil. I think if the spy pushes back down to 380 to 400 bucks that you will see more downside on amc, that's the truth! That's what i believe unless it take. It would take a crazy fundamental announcement from the company to to outweigh that. Like i mean like say, they wipe out all their debt in a day or they buy back shares.

That's what it would take, that's what it would take uh to override the spy dumping, but every company's doing it. Man i'm telling you like when we look at a a bear market, i think something that a lot of people uh forget is everything's dying. I mean look at this everything's dying. Look at tesla right now.

Look at uh! Look at look at uh apple! Look at this spy look at microsoft, uber zillow, it's tough for for companies to do well in a bear market. It just is here i'll. Take a poll, quick watch, the video shared with me, yay or nay. This is uh a video that clear value tax, put out talking about the federal reserve and how he believes it'll cause a stock market crash and then a massive stock market rally uh.

I share a similar opinion. I've never seen this. Actually, i must have seen it before because i'm subscribed god damn get out of that get uh. I'm gon na add the poll.

Let's see you can uh we'll we'll let that pull rip. If you guys want to watch that you vote yes, if you don't, then vote no we'll let that rip for a couple minutes. While that's ripping it is friday and we are red well that doesn't mean that we can't have a good day. Huh fresh bottle of you already know what it is: the kraken baby thanks mom and we leveled up all right.

Now i drink it out of a glass now this is an og thing, all right. If you're new, here, you might not, you might not know what this is about all right. I know this is the stock market and a lot of people say uh uh we got to keep this real. We got to keep this professional like we got ta uh trey.

If you kept things more, professional people would respect you more and this and that, but to be frank with you, i don't care because listen there are people out there, retail investors who make millions of dollars a year uh sitting in in bed wearing boxers, all right Stock market's not about being professional, the stock market's about being educated and be educated, you don't have to dress a certain way. You don't have to live a certain lifestyle. You don't have to you, don't have to wear a suit. You don't have to have a clean shaven face.

You're gon na have long hair. You could be anything you want. Okay, uh, at the end of the day, we're all here together, man all right, we're we're doing our best as retail, to make a difference and to make noise, and i am going to cheers and toast. This is a tradition in the chat, i'm a cheers and toast to all the work that we have seen and done over the last year and a half other things that we wish were different right now.

Yes, do we wish we're in a bear market right now? No, but there's so much good that we have shared with each other, and i genuinely think that and i'm happy you guys are here and i'm proud of you guys. This is a cheers and toast to you all right. People are voting yay to the video. So i will uh i'll watch it.

Let's do it i'll see what it is. I i have not seen this. Obviously it came out an hour ago. Let's give her a buck is in deep financial trouble.

I'm going to tell you what they don't want. You to know i'm going to tell you about the upcoming stock market crash to be followed by an insane stock market rally, and then i'm gon na tell you what i'm gon na do to avoid financial ruin and come out ahead and you're. Welcome to join me. So here's the dilemma: the rate of inflation, it's extremely high right now to reduce inflation.

Here's the federal reserve strategy, one they're, removing money out of the system; that's called quantitative tightening and two they're raising interest rates. So here's the problem and if you have around jacksonville florida i'll, do an argentine and barbecue with wagyu meat for you, wagu meat is uh, japanese cow in case you're, curious and anyone you bring they're watching you from the beginning. Thanks for all the info, you provide cheers: hey thanks, quarterbacks and thanks for the video bro appreciate, you appreciate you. This is where the dilemma lies for quantitative tightening.

If you take out just a little bit of money out of the system, it's not going to put a dent on inflation, especially when inflation is. This high ah pause, though pause pause, he's saying a little money as if it's a little money, it's not a little money all right. They are trying to take a lot of money out of the system, a ton of money, actually nine trillion dollars. The fed in the previous two years has printed 16 trillion dollars and they're trying to sell upwards of 9 trillion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities and treasury notes.

That is a ton of money. That's a ton of money! That's that's why i've got a little bit of a difference in opinion here, but uh. I do think that quantitative tightening is going to make the stock market crash, so the government they would have to remove a lot of money out of the system which would cause deflation. So here's the thing, the governments they cannot afford.

Deflation, because the governments cannot tax deflation, deflation is going to happen. I want to say that why? Because the government's going to overcorrect the only way that the federal reserve can fix this mess is if they're super aggressive, because they were late remember a year ago, when inflation started going up and everyone was screaming, we have to do something about this. We have to do something about this and the fed was saying: inflation is transitory, inflation's, a good thing. It means you get paid more at your job, inflation's, not that bad.

You guys just got ta suck it up. Buttercup they're saying all this and now a year later, they're doing something well an entire year. They were gaslighting you you guys that's when they should have been raising rates because of that they're going to be too aggressive because they have to be too aggressive, and i think you are going to run into deflation the government they benefit from a certain degree of Inflation correct in a deflationary environment, the federal government they're going to collect less tax money. If there's less tax money, the government, they would struggle to keep up with their debts and the interest payments on the 30 trillion dollars of debt that they've accumulated.

The second tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates. However, raising interest rates that's going to come at a very costly price for the governments, raising interest rates, that's going to make interest payments on your debts, much more expensive yep. So, as i said, the federal government, they are in debt 30 trillion dollars that doesn't include the unfunded liabilities. Think about how crazy that is, man, 30 trillion dollars, that's twice as much as we printed and look at what the repercussions of that were.

We printed 16 trillion and we're in debt 30 trillion holy. That's absolutely insane! That's crazy interest rate increases that we just recently saw that's going to cause the federal government to pay an extra 100 billion dollars of interest on that debts. So, to summarize this very nicely: you have three options here: okay, so one option number one is to remove money out of the system that would create deflation. The government would receive less tax money and then they would struggle to make the interest payments on their debts option number two.

I don't give a the government. The government can struggle all day long them. They created this problem. They can deal with it.

Oh man, oh boo, hoo, you guys aren't going to get as much tax money, i'm so sad dude. I can't believe it hey. I want to pay taxes to the worst business in america, so bad would be to raise interest rates which would cause the government's interest payments to skyrocket for the 30 trillion of debts and option number three. This is always an option.

It's to take! No action. If, if the government takes no action, it's not really an option, inflation would get worse and then there would be the risk of hyperinflation turning into zimbabwe or to venezuela. So we are essentially in deep trouble, we're getting very close to checkmates. So this is going to be.

I mean it's going to be game over. It's not going to be today, but it's not going to be as far away as you think and things they're going to get worse every passing year. The only solution to this situation is to increase productivity, it's to increase outputs, so that would that would solve the problem. If i were in charge, i would do that and i know how to do that, but i'm not in charge and are what do you guys think of that? The solution to our inflation problem is to increase productivity.

Do you think that's the answer. I don't think. That's that's a a bad idea like if you increase productivity, you're, going to run into far less supply chain issues which is obviously going to you know, improve the supply supply chain issues. We've had uh and also even out the market, which would then therefore translate to quarterly earnings.

But the problem is that people don't want to work right if you're, looking at sort of the population of the united states, there's two real options that you can look at here. Number one is, americans are lazy and they just don't want to work because they don't want to work right. That's one option. The other option to me is americans: don't want to work for companies that don't pay them a livable wage, which one is it.

I have an opinion, you guys probably have an opinion, but i don't see anything else. You know, i think. If you want to increase uh output, you want to increase production, you need to pay people more money, i mean. The fact of the matter is this: if you are working a minimum wage job with inflation going up eight percent, you are maybe being able to scrape by maybe i mean look check this out, but i hadn't talked about this earlier today.

I want to show you guys this tweet. This is actually really important to discuss. Biden claimed that debt is going down and savings is going up, but it's actually the exact opposite. Total public debt has done nothing but go up since 2020, and that's a parabolic growth and public savings has only drastically gone down drastically gone down.

What does this tell you? It tells you that the cost of living is going up too fast and people can't afford to live. That's why they're dipping into their savings? That's why they're dipping into debt? It's because people aren't getting paid a livable wage. I really do think. That's it.

You know you want to increase production, you got to pay people more elected officials, they're just digging a deeper hole for all of us. If the urgency of the situation is not clicking for you, i'm gon na give you some visuals to help you picture what is going on and where we're headed, but before we do that, i'm gon na i'm gon na briefly tell you. So let me just say this: the federal government. They spend much more money than they have coming in to make up the difference.

They borrow the money and they go deeper into debts. Go up the government they're going to have to spend. You guys know that money can be rehypothecated, a dollar can be borrowed back and forth three or four times, and that's how you see the economy have way more money than it should isn't that crazy. The same way that you can re hypothecate a share, you can re, i apothecate a dollar.

A bank can borrow a dollar to a bank and borrow a bank to a dollar, can borrow a bank to a person and that same dollar could be borrowed four times. Isn't that crazy, like think about this, what banks will do, let's just say that i'm a bank right, i'm bank over here, i'm gon na, draw this out. This is what he's talking about. It's actually pretty interesting stuff.

If i'm a bank - and i want collateral from you right, this is where you run into problems with margin and debt and and rehypothecation, and all this crazy, crazy, stuff re-hypothecation, referring to borrowing something more than once. If i'm bank right here how the heck did my camera turn off, how did you do that titan if i'm bank over here right? This is bank uh and this is person and person has to put up collateral for a loan. So the bank is offering a loan uh and i have to put up collateral and for the form of collateral. Let's just say: uh it's money right.

Let's say i'm gon na put up x amount of money, so i can get this loan uh. If it's a hundred thousand dollar loan, maybe it's a ten thousand dollar collateral right. What the bank will do is they'll. Take this ten thousand dollars and they'll just go put it into something else.

Maybe they'll they'll go, lend it to uh, lend it to another person. Maybe they'll put it in the market, maybe they'll dump it into a house. Maybe they'll dump it into this into that et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, and your money that you put up as collateral is getting put somewhere else. If it's getting lent to another bank or individual well, then what what if this person is putting that money into the market that same dollar can be ripping around five six: seven, eight nine times dude, it's insane! It's crazy! The wild system spend much more money on the interest payments to service the debts.

So here's a graph showing the relationship of the interest rate on government debts as the federal reserve raises interest rates. Steve daly says: can we be done with the ccp propaganda video, steve daly? Can you stop being a whiny little, so you know, i know we all know that inflation is threatening our financial system. Therefore, the federal reserve they're raising interest rates because they have to this is going to cause the federal government to pay a lot more in interest payments. So take a look at this.

As interest rates go up, a larger percentage of our tax money is going to go towards interest payments. That means there's going to be less money for welfare programs for defense, for health care. You name it and to make matters worse, we just keep adding on more debts. Please take a look problem: the comptroller general, the united states and head of the government accountability office just said.

Without substantive changes to spending policy, the federal debt is poised to grow faster than the economy, a trend that is unsustainable. This guy's pretty smart. Now, i'm going to tell you what the background doesn't matter, avoid financial ruin and to come out ahead, but before before i get into that, you need to know this after the housing bubble burst during the only complaint that i have is. This is a this.

Is a it's a pretty dry video like if you're, if you want to pitch a subject like this having one blank screen like this, this is me as a viewer right. I don't know about you guys, but as a viewer, if all that i'm looking at, is you talking off a piece of paper? That's pretty hard to follow. You know like i have to. I have to be thinking pretty intently and i think that he'd be able to get this message across a little bit better if he made the information a little more present, uh presentable he's got to get some visuals right about 14 years ago.

The federal reserve they've been printing right here, an accelerated pace. This has driven up the stock markets, there's basically just too much money in the system. There's too much money going around and that's where they're doing quantitative, tightening quantitative tightening takes liquidity out of the system. What do you mean there's too much money going around like that, didn't happen to me? Well, i was referring to the rich people, the people in charge, so here's a graph, so here's a chart showing how much money was printed and the effect that it had on the stock markets.

So this is why there's the saying don't fight the fed, as you can clearly see the relationship, the more money? That's printed, the higher the stock market goes yeah, the market's inflated man, the federal reserve uh. Is there a term for this? I wonder if there is there's probably like a technical term for what that would be called, but what i would call that is like the the stock market inflating itself. You know like it's: let's say that the stock market, the s p 500 in the last 360 trading days or 365 trading days - is up 10, but inflation was up eight percent. That means that the stock market only really gained two percent against the dollar.

You know i don't know what that would be, but uh, that's, basically what it is he's a tax advisor directly yeah they're gon na take money out of the system: quantitative tightening 47.5 billion dollars a month every month for the next three months, followed up by 95 Billion dollars a month thereafter, so why would you want to fight the fed they print the money? The stock market goes up. They take money out of the system, the stock market. It's going to have a very difficult time going up. It's most likely going to go down yeah.

If i'm gon na be buying anything in this type of environment, it's gon na be companies that are highly profitable. You know the biggest crime guys. I cannot believe this isn't talked about more. The biggest crime of this all is, they only started being aggressive and doing what was the right thing after jerome powell got reelected to another, four-year term.

Think about that that is disgusting. They gaslighted made up said all this nonsense about how inflation's transitory and oh, we don't have to worry, inflation's good. It's it's putin's fault, it's not our fault, but it's gon na be fine and then all of a sudden, jerome powell gets elected. He said: hey this soft landing uh, it's not probably not very likely, uh inflation yeah.

We don't really have the tools to actually control this uh. You know things, don't look pretty very good. We're gon na have to do quantitative. Tightening we're gon na have to be very aggressive and criminal man.

It's messed up. It's like two different people. It's like split personality, disorder, dude, it's crazy people that are passionate and they dump their shares at the top. The profits right, absolutely man, i'm gon na - be buying growth stuff.

You guys have probably seen that chart. I'm guessing drop a girl in the chat if you've seen the the graphics showing when the feds sold their stocks and they timed literally the top day at 480. Bucks when they sold stocks it'd be really special, because it's gon na be an uphill battle. The federal reserve they're going to be raising interest rates, they're going to be performing quantitative, tightening to reduce inflation, and it's going to trigger a stock market crash.

There's going to be a bunch of wild stock market rallies along the way, so that would be a great opportunity to write covered calls to offload positions and to short zombie companies zombies. However, it is most likely that the stock market is going to end. That's the way you're putting it the federal reserve they're going to attempt to bring down inflation to their target rate of two percent, which is going to be highly unlikely. That's because the federal reserve, they can only raise interest rates by so much until they reach that point where the government they're going to get very uncomfortable with the rising interest payments on their debts.

So this is going to be an unsustainable situation when we reach that breaking point. The federal government they're going to speak with jerome powell, the chairman of the federal reserve and they're, going to tell him like. Are you trying to collapse? The federal government they're going to tell them we can't afford to make these high interest payments on our federal debts, so the federal reserve they're going to have no choice but to to terminate quantitative, tightening, yeah and they're going to stop raising interest rates yup. When that happens, inflation, it's going to pick up again and we're going to see more financial asset appreciation.

Financial asset inflation better said so this is, ah that was that's what it would be called: financial asset inflation. That's when the spy in the broad market goes through an insane pump alongside inflation, going up yup yup, yup, yup yup, that makes sense. I i actually agree uh. I think i get the premise of the back half of the video there's another uh, four minutes or so to go, but i'm guessing where he's going to be going with this, where the end of this is gon na end is uh he's going to say the Fed is going to buckle he he probably believes that the fed is going to buckle and that the fed is not going to follow through with two things: quantitative tightening and, secondly, raising rates.

Why? Because it's going to cause a lot of pain in the general economy and the federal reserve and the government does not want to have to deal with the ramifications of people being up in their grill. That would be my guess. Do i want to watch the last four minutes of this gorilla's in the chat? It's up to you? Yes? Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes, all right! Gon na trigger a massive stock market rally, growth stocks, they're gon na they're gon na skyrocket, cryptocurrencies, they're gon na go to the moon when it says growth stocks, it means small, mid cap, federal governments, they're gon na prefer inflation rather than risking default because with inflation, The government they're going to be able to collect more tax money. It also means the 30 trillion that they have in debt.

It's going to be easier to keep up with and the interest payments they're going to become more manageable. So at that point, that's the point. When it's going to become checkmates, so the stock market crash that we're going to have relatively soon it's going to be big, but it's not going to be the big one, because that's probably going to be one cycle, so one more cycle away. So, ultimately, this is what i'm envisioning.

That's where i disagree. I think if this isn't the real stock market crash, if this isn't the big one, what it's going to be is this will be a big recession, followed by maybe a year of slow, slow growth. Uh, followed by a big big big push down uh. I i don't necessarily agree with that.

I i think we are in a spot, economically speaking, that we have never been in before with this much money being printed, uh, 80 of all circulating money being printed in two years. When, when has that happened? When has that happened? That's absolute insanity! The way that it's been handled is literally asked backwards wrong, and to top it off, the president apparently thinks that americans are in a spot where they have more savings than they've ever had before and have less debt than they've ever had before, which is literally exactly Backwards, like everything about what's happening right now in the financial system, is bad and everyone's trying to tell you that it's good, it doesn't make sense. It makes no sense at all and to me i don't know how you can avoid it. How can you kick the can down the road? The only way i can see is if the fed decides to stop quantitative tightening, to stop raising rates, you'll get an initial pump and then reality is going to sit back in when inflation goes over 10 percent.

It's going to be a stock market crash, triggered by the federal reserve, followed by a crazy stock market rally triggered by the federal reserve from there it's going to be choose your poison. It's going to be the big one, the big package, or it's going to be hyperinflation when the big crash comes so if they go that route, the federal reserve they're not going to be able to rescue the stock markets. At that point, it's going to be a decision between screw over all the retirees by wiping out their 401ks and the iras or let hyperinflation turn us into the next venezuela. So here's a fun fact.

I was in venezuela multiple times. I was in caracas during the riots, so imagine an angry venezuelan mob fighting the riot police - and i was in the middle of that i thought i was going to die so the fun. So that's not the fun fact. The fun fact is that, even though venezuela turned into a hellhole, if you have money, life in venezuela is great, so there's a whole society and a whole culture of rich venezuelans living the good life i mean this is going on.

At the same time, there's children in the streets begging for food begging for money just to get by the elite class, and so the ultra wealthy they're going to be fine if america gets devastated. So i believe that the ultra wealthy and the people in charge they actually use hyperinflation over a deflationary environment with hyperinflation. No doubt there's going to be economic havoc, it's going to be crazy, but the rich they're going to be better off in an inflationary environments. So if you know this is coming, the question is: how do you avoid financial ruin? So, first, my recommendation, my advice is: do not get wiped out in the upcoming stocks.

This is not the big one, just the one there's some reason. I expected him to say that avoid that don't buy meme stocks, don't buy meme stocks. Second, it's to get prepared for the crazy stock market rally. That's gon na follow and then after you make a lot of money right before hyperinflation, my recommendation would be to buy hard assets, especially gold silver commodities.

So that's that's for financial protection, btc and alts. That's up to you! So something like gold. That is not an investment. Gold is a store of value.

It's wealth preservation. It's protection from there. It's going to be your choice: to get out of the country, just how the venezuelans, with money just poured into miami or to ride it out, just see how the dust settles and again. This is all of this.

It's not going to unravel just overnight.