Welcome back, how are we doing guys what's up what's up? What's up youtube? It's your boy, trey back again for episode! 123 of the trader, show it's great to have you here great to have you back uh today. Obviously, the markets are doing kind of piss-poor we're gon na wait a few minutes for everybody to come back into uh into the chat to the live stream. It's great to see you uh david george, samnio, 95956, red panda, uh tyler, all the peeps. Here, it's great to see you it's great, to see you great to see you tristan drop squirrels in the trash great to have everybody back, uh hope everybody enjoyed their weekend my weekend included catching up on sleep.

I actually got over eight hours of sleep on saturday, which is really nice. I finished off ozark got ta say i won't give any spoilers no spoilers, but the end of ozark uh season. Four. I was kind of bummed by the ending.

I don't know if anybody in chat has actually watched the entirety of the show, but the last episode ah doesn't sit with me. I'm not a not a fan of how that show ended. I think it could have had uh uh. I don't know if they extended it by like an episode.

They added one episode of the end of ozark. That would have been better but uh. It is what it is. Nonetheless, uh.

I did that what else i got some uh some subway on sunday uh ate a bag of uh hot hot chesters, like the like the cheetos fries they're. Pretty good um played some video games pretty chill pretty show weekend who, in chat by the way, watched uh. The the jim cramer lore video that i put out on saturday, if you did hope you enjoyed it, i put a lot of time into that pretty interesting little backstory, i didn't know until uh until the the research was was done on that uh, that jim cramer Uh actually was a part of the ted bundy stuff way back in the day very interesting. It's uh! It's crazy that uh his his political background is as such.

To be quite honest, it makes sense if you think about it, you look back into jim cramer's political background and it really makes you ask some questions. It makes me wonder huh how much of a political pond is. He now you know, makes sense when you look at sort of his uh, his stock picks and now he's almost exactly backwards on everything that he tries to predict. But i don't know - maybe i'm just maybe i'm just a goofy goober beats me working a shutdown but going to watch it.

Hey good stuff, derek appreciate that appreciate that how often do you go to the mc theater uh, one or two times a month? Typically, i am gon na go watch the new jurassic world. I haven't seen any crazy news articles on it, no crazy reviews, so i i don't know if it's a slam dunk but uh, i'm a big fan of uh of jurassic park. I, like dinosaurs, so i'll go watch jurassic world just because it's of interest to me uh what i'm probably the most excited for that's coming out soon is uh. The second avatar movie, i think that's gon na be either late, 2022 or 2023 uh either way.

I'm excited to watch that i think it'll be good. I think it'll be really good. Jurassic world isn't very good. Oh that's! That's too bad i'll watch it anyways! It's it's worth! Checking out, uh i'll, formulate an opinion.

I if i had to take a guess. It's probably gon na be like a b minus tier movie. Uh, i don't imagine it'll, be anything crazy, but top gun maverick was good and i went into that with uh uh, i wouldn't say low expectations but moderate because that's not typically my type of movie. I wouldn't watch those those sorts of movies uh for fun in my free time, but yeah there we go light year coming soon yeah.

I can see that being good. I can see that. Can i go live on twitch uh tonight. I will tonight not today uh or not now i should say, but tonight, yep 6 p.m.

Central, if jim was a plant he'd be stinkweed. What's up jazz, it's good to see you man, thanks for stopping in. I appreciate that bro will. I watch light year, yeah i'll check it out i'll check it out.

I enjoyed uh the toy story movies so give it a shot. Thor will be good too. Thor will be solid. I'm a big fan of anything marvel.

Marvel movies are really solid. I watched uh uh, the the movie with the red witch. I think it was uh with scarlet. No, that's not it.

What was the name see now? I'm spacing scarlet witch yeah. It's wanda, i'm trying to think of the name of the movie. I don't have the scarlet witch in it, it's not the wizard of who said wizard of oz. Oh, it was doctor strange, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

I don't know that uh. I was spacing on that. It was good, though, very solid, wizard of oz f's in the chat uh. I think i think i think it was uh.

I think man yeah solid for sure uh we'll wait one or two more minutes, then we'll get this thing started. Obviously, today, there's a lot of pain in the market, a lot of pain across basically everything uh, we'll talk about sort of uh, the happenings that we've seen cryptocurrency suffering, pretty damn bad the spy down three percentage on the day, uh and testing some pretty critical levels And from here how it reacts to uh, i would, i would argue, 380 bucks is gon na, be really key, really critical, hey! What's up np personal, it's good to see you, man, don't waste your time on venom see i watched the second venom and it was okay, but it wasn't as good as the first one uh woody woody was a good addition for sure his character was well played Out, but i don't know, the movie didn't have the same, the same punch to it as the first venom did uh, but it was good. It was good i watched when it came out. What's up bro, did you see my tweet with almost every movie sold out? One of my more recent saturday - not tweeting much - i didn't see it while street viking but i'll check it out.

I believe it, i believe, there's been good movies that have come out lately. They've been doing uh very well movies are doing well, no matter what way you cut it. Man in a recession, it's impressive if a company is continuing to have uh improvement with their fundamentals and their balance sheets and amc has been doing that despite a recession, despite some economic turmoil - and that is worth something you know uh it's it's something that a lot Of other companies haven't had good companies, blue chip companies have been going backwards and amc's moving forwards, and that's a that's a good sign. I think that's a step in the right direction.

Dig the beard yeah it's coming in thick, it's coming in for sure it's grown. Almost the full length i'll get myself a glass of water, quick and we'll get this show on the road huh chill out. Titan, don't get up, don't get up just stay there. All right guys! Welcome to the trader, show it's great to have you.

This is episode! 123. uh the title for the day is as such, because the stock market is in a sufferable position. Things are looking bad spy is down. Three percent kryptos down massively bitcoin was down at one point today.

Over 20, now down about 18.9 ethereum was down about 25 percent. The last i checked. Now it is down 26. uh small, mid large cap companies outside of a select few.

I think aerc was green for the day up about 29 red box green for the day up about uh 16. There's a there's a couple of exceptions, but nonetheless uh the majority of of the day and the name of the day is pain. Fear, uh extreme fear to be quite frank with you, and these these moments do not last long, but we are certainly in one right now, due to uh a plethora of different factors, but uh, probably the most important being, and what was sort of the catalyst here Is uh crypto? I think crypto scared a lot of uh a lot of people a lot a lot of people. Then i've got some stuff that we're going to talk about so uh we'll get into it.

Let's dig into it it's great to have you drop some gorillas, we'll also go over amc. Don't worry i'll, give you guys an outlook on the chart and stuff. It is red today down about eight percent and if you look at uh sort of trend lines trend lines matter, ta matters you can see it is uh rejecting off of uh. This trend line right here, uh that has been sort of ping-ponged back and forth.

For quite some time so lower this down, you can see it tap, tap, tap, tap, tap, tap, reject, uh, coming back down and a break of this trend line is gon na be pretty critical. We had it here spy gap down, not helpful, uh the pain in the futures market, which is essentially just the price action before market open our pre-market open, i should say uh on monday, you know we we had just that huge massive gap down and it pushed Everything, alongside with it so uh, that's where the pain begins. If you aren't aware, uh crypto is not not hanging too well and a lot of it. People people seem to think uh is because of this, and this seems reminiscent it probably sounds familiar and that's because it is who was there? Who in chat was there january of 2021, when the buy button was taken away? When you were, when you had didn't, have full optionality, when your buy or sell decision could not be heard well, very similar situation happening right now in the crypto world, bitcoin plunges below 24 000 and the crypto meltdown claims another casualty - and this is alongside news - that A couple different firms, crypto firms such as celsius and binance, have halted withdrawals on uh different cryptocurrency names uh, and this has sparked some immense fear uh rightfully.

So if you don't have full optionality to to do what you want with your money, that's going to cause some some panic and some fear and that fear is obviously rubbed off into the stock market. Uh, albeit that the stock market breakdown that i think we're watching. Right now is more so just coming off of a break of the channel trading uh that we've seen for uh, you know five or six days before we actually got the real breakdown. I'm gon na show you this really quick just so you can see it, but we channel traded from uh 27 may all the way up until the ninth of june.

So it was really about a one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight nine day, uh period where we had channel training before it finally decided uh if it wanted to break up or down and it broke down and that sort of wind up you're, just gon Na get an explosive move to the downside, but surely uh the crypto news has not helped that uh. Unfortunately, this is bad news for the short term right uh. This is causing extreme fear and if you look at sort of the crypto fear index, which i have pulled up right here, what you'll see is that there's there's an extreme amount of fear trey. Where is the lamp see? Everyone always asks this and i'll show you really quick.

Lamp has not died. Lamp is good. Here's lamp i've got a picture of luke, see see the the story behind lou on my lamp is uh. Once upon a time, i had a video on twitter and there was a big freaking dildo on my uh on my desk.

In the background on my counter and room made, a video saying i get got ta make fun of me with that big scripture, like a cat with that big monster in the background uh. So so he won that and because of it, i put him on on my lamp just as uh collateral damage. Okay, so i'm gon na have this picture of lou on my lamp, basically forever it's not going to go anywhere. He'll stay put uh and when i need hope when i want a good chuckle, i just i have good old, bald loose head to look at and it brings me happiness.

So lamp is good. Don't sweat, happy on birthday, thanks liz! I appreciate that. Ah, but anywho. Let's get back to it, uh i see where chad's attention is today: hey, you know what you guys are doing good.

This is good right, you're, watching the goddamn world collapse and we're joking about uh we're we're joking about lu and a lamp. So that's got to be worth something: huh, that's got to be worth something. Don't it come on now come on now you guys make me proud. I'm like a proud, i'm like a a proud happy guy, that's good massive fear in crypto, uh, fear and greed index.

It's at 11 right now and if you look at the entirety of crypto everything's, just bleeding like you wouldn't believe right trey are you gay uh? No, i am straight fun fact. Actually you're gon na do with this. Whatever you'd like uh, i was curious at one point i'll be straight i'll, be honest and i uh i tried something with the guy and i didn't like it and that's how i know i'm straight, don't until you try tried it out. I think it was back in uh, eighth or ninth grade in high school somewhere around there and uh wasn't a fan.

So here we are but anywho uh there you go yeah, extreme fear and uh crypto a lot of a lot of red, and that translates over to the stock market. And if you look at the stock market, what you're gon na find is uh very similar, metrics extreme fear, not a lot of greed, lots and lots and lots of fear uh it's at 19. and uh. This is translating to.

I would imagine a reaction to inflation and the federal reserve by the way today has had uh a emergency meeting, so to speak, to discuss how they'd like to combat inflation and uh. A lot of people are speculating that you're gon na see an increase in the basis point raised uh for interest rate hikes uh. I would imagine actually they're gon na, raise it from 70 50 to 75 to 100.. I think they're gon na try and be very aggressive here with quantitative tightening, because if they aren't well, this is the stock.

Market's reaction is extreme fear, and let me tell you by the way if they do end up raising uh basis points by 25 to 50 points and draw you know, raise it up to a hundred uh you're gon na see an immediate band-aid rip effect where the Stock market will react to that uh and push itself down, but in the long term i think the market will react more positively, because that is ripping the band-aid off and they, i think that the people know they're gon na have to be more aggressive, uh to Manage inflation and if it just keeps getting worse, it's gon na be bad. You know, uh the market's just gon na keep pushing down as inflation continues to rise, uh and i think they'd much rather take the interest rate hike over inflation, continuing to worsen. So um. That's that that's the reaction in terms of technical levels, if you're looking to spy right now, uh very critical point - i talked about this quite some time ago.

If you watched uh, i had a tweet. I think it was back on may 27th, where i said. I think it is going to tap the 236 and reject and come back down to test more lows uh. It has done exactly that rejected off the 382 or the 236..

Now it's tapping the 382 and uh. Here we are now here we are now at uh, the the 382 again broke down, and now it is rejecting off the 382.. This to me is not a good sign. This tap right here, this tap right here.

It is respecting that 382 level, almost religiously and as it continues to push its way down, uh if it if it continues the way that it has. Quite frankly, i see more downside and i'd be watching for uh sort of that. The next mark, which is the 0.5 fib and that's gon na lock you up with uh about 350 bucks, which isn't good, more pain and more pain in the spy and more pain in the broad market, means more pain across basically everything. Now there, the one sliver of good news that uh that i can give you is this uh.

There has been opportunity outside in the market in small, mid cap companies and people talk about red box, but red box isn't the only one i'm not telling you to buy this. I'm not telling you to sell this, i'm just giving you examples of why. I think there is good news to be had aerc. Aeroclean technologies is another small, mid company uh that has had a pretty nice run as of late, and what this is telling me that there's a slow rotation starting to take place uh as as big money, is moving into smaller and mid cap companies.

These small random pops that you're seeing across a bunch of small and mid names, i don't necessarily think they're a coincidence. I think this is uh the slow transfer over to small and mids as the spy continues to. I would sort of call it capitulate as it starts to round out to a bottom of sorts. Now i don't think we're at that bottom.

Yet i want to make that clear. I do think it's going to uh come down lower. I think the spy is going to test about 350 ish. That's my mark.

That's my guess! Uh! I thought that it would bounce down to three and two and come up to the two three six bounded down to three at two then from here we'd have to figure it out and from here it just doesn't look strong. You know not a lot of strength and from from that from the weakness i'd imagine it comes down lower. So, while it's doing this, while it's trying to round out and find that bottom, i think you are watching a rotation take place and when there's rallies what rally's the hardest, you guys tell me you already know it drop it in chat, small mids, small mids rally Harder than anything in a in a row reversal in a rotation uh from a bear market into a bull market, i don't think we're there. Yet you know, i think, there's more pain, but there you have it pushing with powder who knows couldn't tell you guys.

Listen: listen, i'm just the stock guy right, all right, trey, say abs in the chat af's in the chat, huh amc. Let's talk about amy, quick amc, i'll, say: i've said it before i'll say it again. The good news here is this: if you look at this uh rising trend line, this is sort of like the the lifeline that amy has been holding over the the previous three four weeks. Every time it's tap this line, it has tried to bounce back up bounce bounce bounce and if the spy can get some sort of move to the upside uh, i do think that is going to obviously impact amy's ability to get a nice reversal off of this And continue for the upside as well as long as the spy is weak.

Amy is weak. This has been very recognizable as you look at the last three days. If i show you guys the last three days, i'm gon na hide these drawings, quick. What you're, gon na see is bam, bam bam.

All three of these have been gap, downs and, if you look at the spy very similar situation, spy bam bam bam, albeit the spy is much weaker. These are nasty nasty gap, downs and in every gap down situation. Like you're, seeing with the spy uh gaps eventually fill, and i do think you are gon na - fill these gaps, uh uh, eventually, obviously i mean the stock market's gon na continue to go up and these gaps are spots to watch for right uh. But this is very much influenced, no matter how how you want to argue it, how you want to paint it.

It's influenced amc. You know. Broad market weakness, recession, talks, bad inflation, emergency, fed, meeting, cryptocurrency meltdown. All these things are weighing on the stock market.

Right now, uh, which is weighing on everything else, so amc is down about eight percent on the day. Uh doesn't look particularly great uh, short term right you're. Seeing this breakdown, the good news is, and the the one support we've got until there's really more downside. Is this rising trend line as long as it holds this? I think that you've got uh some uh some alleviation and a hold over uh 11 bucks.

It breaks down beneath that. I think you're watching sort of uh this area at about 10. 31.. Now we're not quite there yet, but it is an area to watch for if we do break down beneath this daily trend line that we have been tracking for quite some time, yo sip tana, it's good to see you welcome, welcome citadel so powerful.

They are crashing entire markets to avoid taking an l to retail uh guillermo uh villagus. I do think that citadel is a piece of the puzzle right, but these guys are not the only villains. Let's make that painfully clear citadel is not the only villains behind the stock market right now, in fact, uh they they can control sort of direction of price. Don't get me wrong, i'm in complete agreements, but what you're watching the stock market right now is the fed? It's banks: it's politicians, the econ economic downfall, that we are witnessing right now with the dollar, with cryptocurrency uh, with inflation federal reserve over leveraged banks, synthetic money printed from banks, synthetic money printed from the fed uh massive amounts of uh leverage and margin and debt.

All pushed into the economy and all pushed into the market you're getting the whiplash effect from that. I really think that's the majority of what's at hand here now citadel does control order flow from a lot of retail investors. In fact they control the majority of it. So the direction that stocks go in the short term, they can definitely uh influence.

Don't get me wrong, that's an influence right, a complete agreement with that. The majority of the problem, however, is what i just mentioned. The fed politicians reaction to uh a cause right, the cosmos have effects, so they didn't react until a year later and that's this is the effect. This is the effect of uh not reacting on time uh and i think that's the majority of the problem.

They relate. These people relate, you know, but we'll be watching uh. Who are you watching the spy we'll be watching amy, we'll be keeping an eye on everything. That's going down, give you guys an update and that's sort of what we're looking like uh.

This has been some really really massive bleeding that we've seen the the rsi is pretty cooked uh. What we've watched in the past is sort of uh a trend in terms of how the spy has been moving, and you can actually paint it up on the rsi. Funnily enough, you can see this sort of falling uh resistance line on the rsi and a little bit of a rising support line, and i wouldn't be surprised if you end up getting a bounce off of this in the very short term uh to fill. One of these two gaps will it actually fill it? I couldn't tell you, but what i would say is i i don't think this is as low as we're going to go.

I think there is more downside here and we're going to find that out uh whether or not the spy bounces off of this 382. This is the really really critical spot if it doesn't bounce off that 380 and it continues to push down first off watch for 372 and from there i think 350 is very realistic and very possible. So that's what you got. That's what we got.

They gave you stimulus checks and now they take back preach, preach preach. Dude titan prose is literally right on the money they're blaming it on uh the the money they printed for stimulus checks right, but how much of that money that they printed went to banks? How much, how much of that money went to banks? Hmm well, apparently, a lot, because if you look back to when they started printing huh, so strange up so high been trying to get a hold of you for one year and uh half now bro. I think it's time you get back to me with all due respect, big dog. Where have you reached out, i applied for an sba, increase and didn't even get that says: jay shomer the economy's bad right now, man, listen, i've talked about this before and i'm sure you guys all feel the same way but uh.

If you go out and you you buy stuff right - maybe it's food, maybe it's uh uh gatorade! Maybe it's an energy drink. Maybe it's new tires. Maybe it's an oil change uh! Maybe it's cat food. Do you feel like prices have only gone up 8.6 because it doesn't feel like that to me, i get myself a monster and a bag of chips, and it's like 12 bucks, it's crazy! I i can't even fathom that right now, because i remember back this.

This sounds like some uh, some, some some, my parents would say back in the day, but i remember when i was a kid and i could go to the gas station and get a bag of sour skittles and uh an energy drink for like 250., no joke 253, bucks for a candy bar and an energy drink. Three bucks, that's insane to me it's funny. They gave like majority to the banks, but it wasn't enough for them. So now they want to take whatever sent to the out to the public too.

You know what's funny titan bros, you know, what's funny pay attention close to this. If this happens, you should be very mad if you see talks of a bailout right when push comes to shove and the absolute bottom is hit. If the fed even mentions a bailout, you should grab some pitchforks go stand down the street and rage. Why? Because that bailout would not be for you it'd be for the banks, the bailout would be for the people who got the majority of the money.

That was printed two years ago. So, if you see talk of a bailout, you know what's happening all right. I used to get a woman to on my bed for five bucks. Now it cost me a smooth, grin that's nice, thanks for sharing that lemon pepper, attendees yeah, what a guy, what a guy everyone's into their own thing.

I guess when people realize that the fed can't fix the inflation problem and the interest rates on bonds are too low, gold and silver will take off silver's, most heavily shorted commodity in the world. I think you're right drew, i think, you're right uh. I think that people are slowly starting to load into uh into silver and gold and commodities uh, i should say rare metals and that is gon na be important. Uh people just got ta wake up to it.

I suppose, but to be honest with you, i don't think that you can really hedge against a bear market or a recession that may be a hot take but forever now, and you guys tell me what you think in the in the chat all right for a While now people have said that cryptocurrency bitcoin ethereum can act as a hedge against inflation and that rare metals can an oil cannon, maybe to some extent oil can maybe maybe oil can act as an inflate, a hedge against inflation, but uh you're, not gon na beat It it'd be very tough to beat especially right now uh. I think that the true hedge against the bear market is is uh not being the seller. You know the seller in the bear market's the one that loses. The buyers are the ones that win long term.

Uh, so that's the big thing: do you still think amy can reach all-time highs? I refer you back to this. People can call me a million things right. They can call me uh. They can call me the shill, the fudster this, the that i'll take it all.

You guys are all entitled to your own opinion, but what i will tell you, what i have told you for quite some time is the numbers. Right now are absolutely wicked: 100 utilization, 22 for interest of free float. You got a cost to borrow it's at 20. Now uh shares on loan have continued to rise, uh all of the data and all the metrics are better than they were in june, they're, better they're, better than they were in june.

The difference now is the state of the economy. That is it so if these metrics back in june 100 utilization a short interest of 21 estimated uh and yadda yadda yadda, you go down the line. If that hit 72 bucks, i surely think it's possible to reach a new all-time high. The thing is right.

Timing matters and i don't think the time is now i'll say this quite quite frankly, i do not think that you're going to witness a nice move on amy until the recession ends. I just don't, i think, as long as we're in a bear market as long as market conditions are they're, crap, uh, you're gon na continue to see pops and fades pops and fades, and it's going to continue to do that until the economy can support a rally In small mid cap companies, i know there are people who believe that an executive order will cause uh amy to go up. I know there are people who think that it's gon na be uh sort of like a hedge against uh, the the bear market and it's possible right. I find that unlikely.

I think the more realistic situation is bear market ends, recession, recovery and then it moves back to the upside. That's my thoughts, uh! I could be right. I could be wrong, i don't know, but i'm not gon na sit here and pretend you know uh, that's why i'm trying to talk about things as they as they work themselves out day by day by day by day, because the realistic thing here is: is this: Quite simply put uh people are hurting. They're hurting.

Ask yourself this question right. I want to see this in chat. How much has the recent inflation increase affected your life? Does it make your your paycheck a little bit tighter? Does it does it make your dollar go? A little less far are you having a hard time week to week paying your bills? How? How difficult are things right now you know these are things that that affect real people. The recession uh, the recession, isn't isn't, isn't a joke.

Uh the state of the economy is not a joke. The state of the stock market's, not a joke. I think this all affects real people and real people. Their bottom dollar getting affected affects everything you know.

I think you need to see uh some strength in the market to really get this bounce. I genuinely do, and i think, once the bear market ends, you watch it move to the upside, take a look at ethos and give your opinion on its pattern. For the past five years, yeah, i got you varus i'll, take a look uh, hopefully, hopefully that makes sense um. I know that that a lot of people are probably gon na, be angry with me for saying that, and i apologize you know i really i i wish that we weren't in the situation they were with the economy, but when you look at things and i've shown This a million times and you look at the spy and you see - we've had three gap down days and that reflects into amy.

You see amy over the past three days have been gap down days. You know what's happening, it's the state of the economy, that's making things weak and here's the good thing. The spy is weaker than amc. This is demonstrating a decent amount of strength.

This is demonstrating that it would like to bottom soon, which tells you that there are buyers out there. There are institutions out there. There are algorithms out there that, like amc at 11 and 50 cents, but timing is everything, and i do not think the time is now to see crazy things happen. That's just me, you know uh.

Let me check out this. This uh atos ticker i'll see what it looks like wicked. What the uh stock market watch i'll talk about the al from boston, video in a sec. Let me take a look at this huh you in the very short term.

It's uh. It's forming a triangle pattern right, respecting this falling resistance line flat support bounce bounce bounce bounce. I would imagine that it's going to continue to follow sort of the macro trend, though, which is uh channel trading. The channel trading has been between nine dollars all the way down to a buck, and that is massive range.

That's actually wicked, to look at that's insane. It seems like it goes through a year of bull market in a year of bear market. It just continues to ride back and forth, and back and forth, and back and forth, that's a very strange looking chart. I don't know that i've ever seen anything like that.

It is a pharmaceutical. So i guess that if that's worth anything there, you go uh but channel trading. It's been channel trading for arguably about four year four or five years: yup dictator democracy, spectronic. I don't know what that is democracy.

What i've never heard of that i'll check that out. In a bit, what happened to negative beta says jesse uh? Well, we obviously aren't displaying it. This is a negative beta. You know, uh amc is going down alongside the spy it's going down alongside the broad market.

You know uh, it's just not there. It's not happening. I think that the big difference now - and i've mentioned this before - is that there are more institutions that own this than you saw back in january through june, because institutions typically follow the market, whereas retail uh seems to have some deviations uh we're not getting those deviations. You know michael furberry, i, like the name, dude, that's sweet.

I emailed you with the sales, uh gorilla, gang email, all right, i'll, take a look at it. Man uh once i hop off the live stream, i'll look back for a gorilla gorilla gang sales. I'm a conservative guy and for the first time i feel like i've lost control of my ability to budget base. Basic needs are out of control, joe miami.

Let me show you something, and you guys. Let me know if this is something you don't even have to to to share personal info cause. I honestly, i don't want you to. You know keep some privacy that's important uh, but i want to show you guys this look at this delinquency rate on credit card loans.

You were seeing an increase in delinquencies on credit card loans over the previous three quarters in uh in the economy. Not a good sign you're also seeing an increase in overall credit card debt usage, which is telling me two basic things: one that people are using more credit card debt and two that people aren't able to pay for basic universal uh necessities in order to survive day. To day this comes down to inflation, this comes out of the state of the economy. You know it's scary, it's scary, stuff, hey thanks, titan, bros i'll watch that speech.

I've got it pulled up, ax, dot, v in alberta, new tech to produce oil and will change the industry worldwide. They're cheap, too right now, uh i'll, take a peek at it. Av.X sure thing all right: there we go 1.05 positive beta, so it goes along the market. There you go yep, that's exactly what my suspicions were.

My suspicions were that it's changed uh and even if it is negative beta, if it's not correlating with what a negative beta stock would do well there you go that's what it is. Isn't that nuts, just in frozen piece? What what kind of name is that my name isn't just in frozen peas and meat juice? Why would somebody think that's your name? Why would someone think your name is just in frozen peas and meat juice? I don't. I don't know if i understand that, can you explain that to me what oh it's a good thing. You said that bro, i might have called you justin frozen peas and meat juice, damn what a guy hey he's doing us all justice.

I would have thought that was his name. That's good! That's good! Thanks! Homie! I appreciate that. I appreciate that av dot x was that what you said it was called: oh x, dot v. Ah, like ax body spray.

Oh it's it's done pretty dc. As of late. There you go, it's just axe yeah, if it's oil, i i'd, imagine it's not doing terrible. It's not my birthday dazzle! Don't do this eight days! Okay, eight days from now i love your jim kramer video if he has a degree as a lawyer, why stay in the stock market, where he's taking massive l's? Ah because he's salary, yup, yup yup, to be honest with you, let me tell you this jim cramer.

I am of the suspicion and this is speculation. Okay, this is speculation. I am of the suspicion that jim cramer's got some political connections uh in which sort of dictate the way that he speaks on mainstream media. I would not be surprised, in fact, i would expect that he has been pitched a narrative that he is supposed to follow on mainstream media, to get bag holders to buy stocks and sell stocks a certain specific way.

I believe that to be the case based on his political background, based on his his uh degree in government based on his uh experience and history working with politics. I think that there's a very realistic possibility that has happened. That's my thoughts, i don't know it's very interesting cover red box, yeah sure thing, one big thing about redbox. Let me let me tell you guys this as well.

I made a video on this yesterday and uh, i'm i'm going to say the same thing as i've. Always said right, if you were buying red box at 14 bucks, i said this yesterday i'll say it again: uh you have to say one thing, and that is that you are late and if you are late, you must accept two things that you will not make. As much money that there's more risk on the table, you accept those two things at least being long uh do as you please just know that there's more risk and you won't make as much money right, uh redbox, has shown its first sign of some form of Rejection, it's still following a pretty clean trend line. Don't get me wrong! You look at this on uh sort of the rising support line that it's got rocking right here and it looks pretty damn clean and it's followed this pattern pretty religiously, where it will tap rsi and cook it out pretty clean as such.

I think i drew this out too. What time frame was i looking at when i drew that out yep, so it's tapped this trend line and uh. What i'd imagine is going to happen now? Is it's probably going to pull back? I don't know if it's going to take this long. That was just the estimation right.

I was just trying to show sort of a generalized trend, but i think it's going to pull back a little bit retrace a bit and then, if you're lucky, if it continues, the momentum it'll come back up on another bullish trend uh. But it's still going pretty. Damn nuts, i mean it's at 15 and eight cents right now. It's up 14 on the day, probably the only true fledged uh hedge to inflation.

Right now, which is worth a nickel, i suppose uh, but once it breaks this rising support line, i become bearish. That's sort of the really big bearish point: where i'd say you can you could see a maintained, bearish uh disposition, it's not quite there. Yet it's still still riding it's at the moment, trying to gap-fill and actually hit that gap-fill spot and now he's trying to determine whether he'd like to bounce or not uh. But let me change over to the five-minute we'll look at these patterns and see what we kind of have rocking flagpole, rising support, falling resistance, and you wait for it to pick a direction whichever direction it picks you can play, but overall trend still bullish.

It's bullish over this trend line breaks this trend line. Then i'd be bearish. Look at this on the 15. yeah there you have it break that trend line and bearish continues to hold, i'm still bullish, hey.

I appreciate that my name isn't just in frozen peas and meat juice. I love it dude. That's such a good name uh. In reference to al from boston's video.

I i've seen a lot of people ask about my opinion on it. I've actually watched the full 40 minute interview with uh, i think her name's chanel she's, a white house, correspondent, uh and i'm giving my opinion on it. Let me tell you: i have a bias of sorts without from boston and i'm gon na try and keep out of it uh in the past. In case you're curious, we have discussed uh price targets uh.

He posted a video saying that he believed that amc could go to a million dollars and i strongly disagree. So i went on his his youtube channel and we discussed uh his opinion on that and my opinion on that. We went different ways. Well, he went on a a live stream or not a live stream, but a video with the white house, correspondent named chanel and that video came out a couple days ago.

Uh, if you haven't seen it, you can watch it, i'm not trying to sway you one way or the other, but uh what they talked about was institutional ownership and uh fraudulence and corruption and manipulation within the stock. A couple of the focal points he had determined that institutions own upwards of 95 of the stock uh. He had also talked about how he believes: there's 2.5 billion synthetics uh, and both of these were sourced according to a website for first off institutional ownership, uh in which they took a spreadsheet, and they just made it all clean. Looking to show the ownership of institution institutional companies and then uh, the 2.5 billion wasn't sourced.

You said that was based off of institutional ownership, retail ownership and the like, in my opinion, uh. I think the biggest thing that i have a problem with is stating that there's x amount of shares, as if it's fact i do think that there are synthetic shares within the stock right. I believe that i really do and chanel reached out to me once i think it was about three or four months ago and i actually declined to talk with her uh the white house, correspondent uh, because it seems like like muddy waters to get into. Maybe i was wrong, you know maybe uh.

Maybe i should uh. I should have brought her on uh or done an interview, but to be honest with you, she wanted a story. I don't know what she's doing with al from boston. Couldn't tell you with certainty uh, but she reached out to me because she wanted me to go on her show which is oan uh, to discuss a story.

She was writing on amc and i didn't want to leave any room for opportunity for msm to uh. To quote unquote up because that's been my experience uh most of the time as they have attempted to up uh, i i'm gon na i'm gon na, say i'm pretty neutral on it. I think there were good things talked about and things that i didn't necessarily agree with. Overall, you know attention is good and if she can bring some some uh stuff to gary gensler power, tour uh.

I just don't like that that al from boston state some things as if they're fact, instead of speculation, because that's what we're doing right, we speculate based on the evidence that is provided to us. The truth of the matter is, we don't know the exact number of shares that exist and i don't think we ever will uh. We probably don't know the actual amount of institutional ownership. There is, and we probably never will we can - take estimated guesses and speculate based on the things that are available and that's probably the best we can do.

You know uh. I stayed out of it because it didn't seem like a good call for me. I i wouldn't have done that myself and that's why so he does what he's got to do. I i'm gon na i'm gon na pass on it uh.

I don't agree with a lot of the things that were said, but that doesn't matter charles payne tweet huh. When it bottoms, what's a good word here, when it bottoms, things will get nutty bam, the big thing that i'm paying attention to and that you guys should be really excited about. This is probably the the the most solid good news we've had so far is a divergence, there's a divergence taking place here. What do i mean by that right check this out? If this is large cap companies right here - and this is small and mids - what i have noticed as a general trend is that large cap companies - if this is like a breakdown point - are breaking down very hard.

Small mids of this is a breakdown. Point are kind of doing this. What does this tell you? This is stronger than this there's more strength than small and mids. Why we can only presume there's more buying pressure, there's more accumulation.

I think that there are big institutions and big names out there that are waiting very patiently for the bottom of the large cap drop, because this is going to push small mids up exponentially. What is that going to do to amy boom boom? You already know owen has an extremist entertainment show pushing conspiracies on people said dr dazzle. I've never even watched the way in. To be honest with you, that's a big reason why i also said no, i declined.

I've got nothing against chanel, i'm sure she's, a good person but uh to me, there's more to lose than there is to gain, and i've already recognized that look, i'm not perfect. I recognize that i've made mistakes. A thousand percent i have uh. I have taken interviews that have done more harm than good and i recognize that.

But then at the moment i thought i was going to genuinely make a difference. I i thought that that my input would could put the good word of the lord out there and we would get some people to see what's happening, but the truth of the matter is you put power in mainstream media's, hands and you're just taking it out of Your own, why go to them? They want to talk, they can come to me. You know so for me to you uh. I hope that's worth something.

Bob gme literally went from four dollars to 400 and you don't think it can happen again. What have you ever heard me say that huh tell me tell me where you heard me say that once small mid cap we're down, they are down true, but they're stronger than the the majority of uh of uh. The stocks in the stock market see, if you're, looking at gamestop and amc, for example right. These are just a few gamestop down 7.8 percent.

True amc down over eight percent, true or seven percent uh, but in comparison to the spy comparison to a lot of big names - tesla, for example, a lot of these big big companies are going through the ringer right now i mean this is these? Are some nasty breakdowns taking place, whereas smaller mids have already kind of had their breakdown right, they're already at basically undervalued levels, uh, which tells you that institutions who are holding these up at this point see larger upside and small mids right now? They do large recoveries. Large cap, recoveries, hood to a penny: hell yeah, dude hood: oh it's at an all-time low, huh! Hey! Let me just oh my god yeah my dabbage baby. I have a look at this jordan. So, oh my god, i haven't looked at the hood short in so long.

That's disgusting, oh man! Oh god! Oh god! Oh man! This is straight up some coin to 475, baby coin to 475 and hood to that's so solid. Ah man. Maybe there is some good in the world huh hold it all time lows. If p5 gets banned, you can say goodbye to these man.

That looks like a coin. Robin hood nah, these guys are gon na, have to start robbing banks. Their stock price goes any lower. That ain't good, what is your best guess as to how long the bear market lasts? This is my first bear market so take that for what it is.

I have no experience with a bear market. I've never tried to predict the bear market. I have uh i've. I've been alive for one, but i knew nothing about stocks.

I barely know how to piss on a toilet right and even then i still missed. What i will do is give my best educated guess, but let my experience talk for itself. I've never lived through a bear market. I i watched a video.

It was a pretty interesting, take uh that talked about the federal reserve and sort of the two two optionalities that they have uh to combat inflation and combat the bear market, and i'm actually in agreeance with this, and i think he expanded upon uh. One belief that i had prior uh, my biggest belief that i've had for some time is that the fed is too flip-floppy. I think that they want to be on both sides of the fence. They don't know which way to lean, and they pick one side whenever it best suits them, and then they pick the other one.

It best suits them uh. What i will say is this: i think that there's two choices at hand here - and this is how you're gon na know the bear market ends. One uh inflation goes down as fed raises rates, inflation has to go down. The stock market will continue to suffer as long as inflation is going up if inflation continues to rise and rise and rise month over month over month over month, you won't see relief, you just won't.

Inflation has to go down, it has to start trending down from these peaks and continue to continuously go down. None of this none of this. It's got to do this. That's the only option right now.

This has to come from a fed with discipline. The fed has to continue to raise rates and to me, in my eyes, they've got to make the hard decision to be very aggressive, 75 to 100 basis. Point hikes. I think they just have to do it.

Obviously, what they're doing isn't enough they've had three continuous months of over eight percent inflation too high, it's too high and the market knows it, the economy knows it. The second option is this, and this is the worst of the two. In my opinion, uh, the second one is that the fed stops quantitative, tightening and raising rates, in which case the stock market would go through sort of a synthetic pop come off these lows, but inflation would continue to worsen. I don't know which is going to happen.

I don't have a lot of faith in the fed, i think they're, very flip-floppy. I've never seen a jerome powell that has stuck to a plan jay pal, that i've seen that i've lived through uh has just just goes back and forth over and over and over and over and over and to me, i think, they're going to get juked they're Going to see the markets going through like this and he's going to feel a lot of pressure, brian's going to be over his ear he's going to be going hey, uh uh. Where am i again? Listen you got ta you got ta. You got ta fix the stock market.

Uh, it's you got, ta got ta got things, got ta, go back up, huh, i'm gon na fire. You you know he's got a lot of that over his ear right now uh and he doesn't want to lose a job because he just got reelected. He went he just got elected for another four year. Uh cycle right doesn't want to lose that.

So i think he feels a lot of pressure to get the stock market to turn around and not enter. Another great depression see now right now we're in recession, territory, if we don't handle things properly, is going to quickly escalate to great depression territory, and i really do believe that i think that's very possible if the fed doesn't handle this right. So i'm hopeful that it's option one. I think i hope this happens.

I hope that they just rip the band-aid off. They get super aggressive, they whack down 75 to 100 basis points and try and correct inflation. The risk because there's always risk right. The risk is that they over correct, in which case you're, looking at things sort of like a pendulum right.

If this is sort of a board and on one side of the scale, you've got inflation and another side of the scale. You've got deflation. Well, if you over correct - and this is what's tipping - you're gon na move weight back over this way too much and then you'll get deflation, which is also bad for the economy, so they can, they can't be too aggressive. This is a risk uh.

To be honest with you, i think if they are going to go with number one, they probably will deflate the economy, but it's happened before, and it's recoverable and we'd much rather see this than this. In my opinion, we cannot go through hyperinflation, we're gon na. Look like venezuela, uh that'll, be the death of the us dollar full on freaking, full great reset hell, biz ticker i'll check it out. Yeah! Oh, my god, man there's so many stocks out here that just look like coins these days.

That's nuts there's really not much ta to do here. Uh i mean what i can draw up for you, i guess is like a like a i mean. This is what this is. What you're looking at.

I guess just a big limp dong. I i don't know, there's not much else, not much else to look at there. Help is don't look good. You should do a 1980s great inflation, dd yeah.

I can you guys want uh, i could do a docu on that docu-style limp elephant trunk dude! That's what this is. There's there's not really much to say i mean i can. I can draw the trend line. I guess, and you can see that there's there's your downtrend there's uh, i don't know it's it's kind of forming up a falling wedge of sorts, but to be honest with you, it's just dying.

I mean that's just that's just death. This is a stock. That's just there's no upside, no buyers. It's all sellers spy come back.

Real quick does weeble die if piff goes away, says alexander. They will, if they don't find another business model. Another way to make money if pfoff gets banned. Brokers that want to survive will have to charge commission per trade, and if we bull does that they will be just fine documentary of the 29 crashed today to today's events, we can do that that freaking guy pretty crazy.

Honestly, it's crazy to think about. If you guys have you guys seen some of the similarities between now and 100 years ago, it's a lot of similarities, man. What do you think about me kevin saying this will be the next great depression. I think if the fed doesn't handle things right, it will be two options aggressive fed or they stop quantitative, tightening and raising rates, in which case you run into hyperinflation, another great depression.

Those are the two options i see, i don't know uh you get, you can clip it, you can do whatever you'd like i've, never had to guess or predict the bear market.