Ladies and gentlemen, when i tell you that i've been waiting for this day for a very long time, i cannot underestimate. I can't overstate the significance of that of that sentence. We are getting damn close to reversal on the market and this is significant for one main reason. For a long time now i have been talking about uh squeeze 2.0 and i about a month ago, right gave it a prediction of between a month to three months or so until you start seeing some pressure on short positions and small and mid-cap companies, and i Think the time is here i really do.

I think it is time i think it's time to take a serious gander at the possibility of the market reversal and the short covering that's going to take place across small and mid cap companies guys welcome to trey's trades refrigerators. Those good crosstalk remembers we're going to send them out a function. Five financial advice please center, take what they're going to solve. Let's get into this, i think i said please say what i take with a grain of salt.

I don't really make much sense, but uh. Today, i'm going to be talking about the spy, uh, amc and uh small mid cap companies. I'm going to give you some preface in case you weren't able to see my theory. I did talk about this some time ago and sort of the first time that i talked about this seriously was with meet kevin.

There's this conversation right here if you'd like to check it out, are we in a recession? I went on a podcast with me. Kevin live stream whatever, and we had talked about sort of the current state of the economy and came to a lot of the same conclusions. Now i got to give this guy props. He pretty much nailed this uh straight on the head of the nail.

I mean he called it basically to the day. Uh march 16th is when he uh. He said he was gon na buy back into the market. He sold everything everyone.

Everyone was well, you know frustrated and personally i still wouldn't have made that bet. I think i think that's a really risky bet, but i'll tell you what you're only crazy until you're right so uh power to him. But nonetheless, during that i had mentioned that i believe march is when you're going to see things start turning around, because that was supposed to be the first date of the rate hike and while many people were thinking to themselves, you know rate hike equals bad bad. For the economy, tightening economy is not good uh.

It actually is good because it's actionable right now. What are the problems within the stock market that, from a day-to-day basis, make things go down? Well, i've talked about this many many times, but it is the overarching theme of uncertainty and for small, mid cap companies such as amc gamestop bed bath to be on blackberry, nokia, all the names that we that we that we have seen move over time. Uh uncertainty is what allows short, uh algorithms to feel like they have a leg to stand on right. Uncertainty is what prevents growth stocks, such as amc, gamestop, to truly have the opportunity to move, because we've talked about this before zeros and ones.

Uh move this thing back and forth ping pong ping pong ping pong because they just basically compute uh a code for hey, there's this uncertainty in the market. There's this about the company, there's that about the company, there's this about the executives and they decide. This is a sell right now right we should be shorting this company. Well, uncertainty is a big factor in that and you can see it clear as day right now.

I don't even have to convince you, because you can look at the market. You can see that the spy has had two astronomical bounce days right. The spy is up 1.25, yet today, 2.2, yesterday uh, and that has gotten us on the move towards what i believe to be the reversal out of this uh bear market. I mean we've been in a bear market since i would argue january 4th of 2022 and it has been a long, the long, long, long, long, two and a half months.

Let me tell you, i haven't wanted to pull my hair out more than once watching uh. This smackdown that's taking place, and this isn't really as bad as i i think things could have gotten and the uncertainty, which was a couple different things which i'm going to draw out here for you uh, is starting to uh, diminish right. You've got the rate hikes. How are these going to be handled? How are we going to handle inflation? This is going pretty much exactly as was spoken about by jerome powell right.

We only have one that's down six more to go, which is a big thing to keep in the back of your mind, but this is actually going to influence iwm, which i'm gon na talk about here in a little bit, which is going to influence amc, gamestop And other small mid cap companies, which i believe personally will have massive moves - squeezes a squeeze 2.0 so to speak over the next couple of months. Right so rate hikes has been talked about now. Uh war is still sort of a topic of discussion. Uh, i'm actually going to speak on this a little bit more, but this is like a half cross box.

Maybe you've got a little little tick right here. Uh things are still going. Obviously, russian ukraine, the whole situation, is still sort of uh. In the midst of happening, so we can't cross this off and i actually believe this is going to be uh, something that we revisit here in the next week or two.

So war is uh. These are probably the two big things you could have said: kovid right uh, but kovit, the narrative there has sort of disappeared, so uh that's pretty much gone and it's kind of funny. How colvin you know all of a sudden is good to go when war begins, but you know i don't know much about much. I'm some 24 year old kid who just likes to wear waifu, shirts and uh, occasionally drink kraken.

So you know it is what it is, but the point being uncertainty is starting to wane, despite the fact that uh rate hikes are going to tighten down the economy and it is going to play a factor in the way that you can borrow money right uh At the end of the day, the market favors certainty and that certainty is going to play off in short positions. So, if shorts live on essentially uh this this uncertainty. Well, what is their thesis at this point if uncertainty starts to wane, if this is like a chart, an uncertainty is like it's all the way up here right and now it's starting to weave its way back down. What does that tell you is that shorts should be starting to sweat a little bit, and i've mentioned this before you know, keep your eye on the vix.

This is the volatility index volatility index is typically high. When there's a lot of uncertainty, there's a lot of fear in the market and i believe uh that the fear is coming to a close relatively quickly here now. What is that actually going to do? Well, we have to come over here to ortex, and i got to show you guys this here. Really quick iwm is the small mid cap etf, it's the russell 2000 and it's been heavily shorted for quite some time.

What this basically is tracking is amongst growth, stocks. Small mid cap companies, which are between 100 million dollars to 10 billion or so uh, there's a lot of shorts that are betting, that these will be going down for a prolonged period of time. If you're looking at iwm as a chart, it would reflect that right. Iwm has gone through some very bearish activity, uh for quite some time.

You could argue you know about the same length as the spy, but even beyond that, it's been a lot of consolidation and i think this is representative of uh. What shorts have been doing to the stock? I mean you look at the short interest and it basically just mirrors the stock's price action. It's been ping pong ping-pong ping-pong back and forth between 30 and 40 percent for basically uh a year now yeah i mean pretty much a year and a month on the nuts uh, and this is because, specifically of uncertainty, you had the colvin era. Ah, these companies can they really make it during cove.

I mean, i don't think you know they paint it a certain way and as that uncertainty goes away, you are going to see that recovery start to take place. So, what's that going to cost well, it's going to cause short covering there really hasn't been a lot of risk outside of a cost to borrow of about one percent. So over the last year, they've paid one percent of whatever positions they have to hold through this consolidation, this ping-ponging back and forth uh between 212 bucks and about 233. I personally believe in the next couple of months, you're gon na see it start to creep back up to all-time highs.

It's a bold statement, but i stand by. I think that iwm is going to uh approach. All-Time highs: 244 dollars we're just going to reflect into amc, gamestop bed bath to beyond uh blackberry, cei, any small, mid cap name that you've seen get tossed around mullen. Prague bbig any of these names right, that's going to affect the way that those move and what's going to fuel that is shorts getting out of this etf, which is going to translate to shorts getting out of uh stocks such as our girl, amy amc.

Now i know this is a crazy thing to say it really. I think people probably won't even believe me to be honest, they're gon na look at this and think to themselves yeah right. You know, we've had two green days: trade, calm, the down uh. It's not time yet and that's why i want to talk about this, so this is what i i'm particularly watching for that's to confirm to me that you can't can't change my mind unless the chart says otherwise that we are in fact going to get this reversal Here and now it's this setup right here, i want to see the spy get a rejection, believe it or not off of a level of resistance and come back down to the previous wedge that we just broke out of this top white trend line.

If we get a bounce off of this top white trend line, transitioning, essentially rotating from being a level of resistance to a level of uh support that to me is going to signify. This is the real deal. This is happening. This is happening now.

You are going to see this. This three-month bear market come to a close and we are going to move into what i believe is going to be the next rotation of small and mid-cap growth. Now, if, if all this doesn't interest, you right, you don't want to know the. Why, behind my theory, the reasons behind my theory, i've talked about this many times.

I try to update at least once a week, i'll put it to in a very simple way: the rotation into small and mid cap companies is going to mean this is the bottom. I believe we are very damn close to the bottom right. 12 bucks could tap it. I don't know, i mean i'm not gon na guess it to the day.

I'm not meet kevin. I'm not that's genius uh, but if we get this man, i'm telling you i'm telling you the as iwm creeps up this etf, which is utilized by the way to push down stock price on amc outside of a million other factors such as market makers, uh et Cetera et cetera, et cetera, if you see this really start to rip some faces off, amc will follow through with that without a shadow of a doubt. It will follow through with that, because if you look at the daily, what does this look like? You know what has amc been doing compared to iwm. This is basically the exact same chart.

I mean you look back to january 4th sold off and then just ping-pong ping-pong ping-pong: what's iwm been doing, sold off ping-pong ping-pong, ping-pong, ping pongs, but doing the exact same thing and that's not by coincidence, that's by design it's by algorithms. It's by these computers who say, look the current state of the economy, the current state of small, mid cap companies. It does not make sense to be long because of blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, and now they are flipping the switch. Now, i think, there's too much euphoria, so here's a whole pokemon, my theory right uh.

What is going to cause that tap back down to the wedge uh? It could just be as simple as too euphoric the market's really riding a high right now, everything's ripping faces off and all all runs eventually have pullbacks and all pullbacks all eventually have runs, and this euphoria, i think, is grounds for belief that you could see some Form of a retracement uh, which could bring the spy back down to that wedge line, and i actually want to see that happen that to me, is going to convince me that yup this is it. This is uh. This is the beginning of what we could end up. Seeing the other piece to me is this: remember how i had mentioned that uh, we haven't quite escaped all the uncertainty.

War is still on the table. Right. All it takes is one bad piece to come out of russia, ukraine, for them to to hit a nato-affiliated country for china to do something for iraq, iran to do something right, there's a lot of things that can that can play into this situation. Uh war is the other thing if you in the next week or so see some sort of uh news about conflict in a different country.

I think that is a hole that could change my theory and if you see the spy break down underneath you know this is the worst case scenario. You see it try to bounce off of this trend line and it doesn't it breaks down underneath it you're still back in the wedge, and this was a false breakout right. That's what i'm personally watching for. I want to see really bad a rejection off of this line and then a bounce off of the wedge and that to me is gon na sell it.

It's gon na seal the deal and the last piece that really makes me think this could be. It is there's no gap fills there's none to fill, there's no real risk here of a gap fill down uh at least from 410 to 440. These are all filled, which is a actually really good sign, because it means that every level's been tested. We can go on to test gap bills, perhaps to the upside, which we have not seen in a while, and that next gap fill to the upside for the spy which is going to translate into uh.

Iwm is going to translate into a lot of different names. Uh is going to be. Let me find this really quick, probably about here. I mean it's it's a ways up.

You can see this tap all the way up to 460 bucks in a week or two's time. It wouldn't surprise me. I genuinely would not be surprised by that so uh. This is the whole poke right worst case scenario.

To me is: is you get some form of retracement that says yep too much euphoria, guess what the economy's still in rough shape, we're still tightening blah blah blah blah? I see this to be less likely. You think, if it's anything, you're gon na see an announcement about war, it could be a cyber attack, could be another uh. It could be some form of nuclear threat uh. I know putin's been talking about how the midwest is never going to uh continue its reign.

Essentially of world supremacy, whatever you can look at the news, but this to me could be what causes the retracement. The question, then is: will it be enough to end this rally that i believe is about to take place, because i think this is very damn close to uh the beginning? This is the time this is the time, and this is gon na translate into shorts, covering positions which means to me that amy gamestop bbig prague all these names. It's almost time, i'm telling you i think the bottom is in and if it's not in it's forming and it's damn close to uh at the very least consolidating, but in my opinion, reversing and i'm i'm extremely excited about that. Uh, like i said before, you know, make your own decisions.

Do what you got to do. Take care of yourself the other day, don't ever leverage uh only put into the market which you can afford to lose. That is the most important thing right. This is supposed to age.

Your life not make it worse. Remember that right, don't push yourself in a spot where, if you lose that money, you're you're, you're gon na be in a worse spot than you were before, i'm excited i'm excited. This is a great thing to be able to talk about it's about damn time that this pain gets some relief and uh watch for what i just talked about. You know, i think, if you see this uh this, this bounce off of that trendline, you're gon na see shorts start covering positions over the next one to two months.

I think it's time i think it is, i think small mid caps are going to have their moment uh. It could last longer than that who who knows, you know i don't know uh, but i think it it's coming. So that's what i got for this video uh. I suppose that's about it! So until we come back again next time, catch y'all, later yeah, a bunch of yellow belly, silly ass, chicken, butt love peach,.