I Think that the Spy is going to hit 388 dollars by Wednesday and I'm here to show you how why and where I came up with that sort of answer. Welcome to Trace Trades Guys, It's great to have you back. it's your boy! Trey Good afternoon Evening Morning wherever you are in the world I Hope you're having a great afternoon evening morning. uh I Wanted to discuss my thoughts on the spine on the broad Market Coming into this next week, we're going to be looking at the weekly time frame, the daily time frame, the one hour time frame. we're looking at the vix, the XY options Market data across the market, as well as economic events that are going to impact and influence the way the chart moves. I'm going to be walking through step by step how I'm coming to all my my Uh forecasts, my analysis, and my levels that ultimately, uh, are I think actionable and we were pretty good last week. If you look back on last week's spy analysis video, uh, the three big takeaways were that we would reject that 400. we would bounce off 390 immediately after that, and then we would come back up to 400. in which case I was short by about two bucks on the last piece of that, which was the Bounce from 390 back to 400. So all in all, pretty good forecasting and I'm using the same thought process coming into this week uh as we look at things. So with all that said, I'm going to chapter out everything so if you want to watch uh from the bottom of the YouTube bar, you can fast forward to weekly daily. Whatever stuff you want to look at, feel free to do. so. Let's just get straight into the video. So let's start off here on the weekly time frame now. I Think very important. to start off with when we're looking at the weekly is what type of Candlestick pattern we are even looking at right? And this is a spinning Top. Now what is a spinning top? In case you didn't know, it's a type of Candlestick pattern that typically indicates the end of an uptrend or a downtrend. A Candlestick pattern such as a spinning top can be used in an uptrend or in a downtrend. In this situation, where an uptrend, it typically means uh, we're about to begin a bearish move, but if we're in a downtrend, you got this exact Candlestick pattern. Uh, it would typically signal the end of a bearish move and the beginning of a bullish move, right? We got the spinning top set up and it's key characteristics is that: nice topping tail. nice bottoming tail with a good meaty body in the middle of the Candlestick Just like a sandwich, right? You want to put your bologna in between two slices of bread. The two slices of bread in this situation are the the Wicks and the body is your baloney, right? Well, spinning top typically indicates like I just mentioned, a little bit of a turnaround. A little bit trend of reversal. Now does that guarantee we're gonna get that? No, not necessarily. But it does give us a starting point, right? Which is why I Wanted to start with this on the weekly time frame. So now that we have this as an inclination and a place to begin I Want to now look at key levels which I like to think of as pivots. Now pivots are a little bit different than support and resistance. Support and resistance are areas where we know price is hard to break and if you crack above it, you get a big move right. Which is great if you're trying to play breakouts. but if you're not, well, then what right? Pivots are better because they can indicate not only a breakout, but a major rejection down, right? And I've got a couple key ones labeled off 3903. This is one from last week. It should look familiar. Uh, this stays the same because we still have price interacting on weekly time frame, right? Rejection Rejection. Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection. I'm very used to that back in the college days. Let me say, uh. so 390 stays. And then we've got four other major pivot levels. On the weekly time frame, we got 4.18 402, 31, 405, 33, and 408 16.. And one of these major levels coincides with a 707 Fibonacci retracement level uh, which is 400 and 405.32 cents off by about a penny. Now if this is the play out exactly right? Uh, you could see us tap 405 or not guaranteed to. but we certainly could. We could tap four or five dollars. and I think ultimately come back down. And this does make a lot of sense just considering the fact that most of our objections have come off of either 707 or 786 retracements. right? This lower high was a 707 tap. Uh, we're gonna look at this one real quick just to see what that came out to. Exactly this one was a 707 tap I Mean you guys get the picture. They're pretty nice. They work pretty well, right? So 707 is like a magnet I Think eventually we're going to tap that level Supply Zones Uh, we've got a major one here between 405 and 408 and 400 and 402 31. Uh, these are areas where I expect we are more likely to reject and come back down. Now, one big thing that I do want to talk about is I think we are going to tap 400 and come, uh, back down off of that because of something I'm about to show you on the daily time frame. but I want to start off with the weekly so we have really base horizontal levels to look for when we want to take trades right? So now that we've gotten that, you know I suppose the last thing I want to show on the weekly time frame is this descending volume. Uh, descending volume? Uh. And an uptrend like this typically would just show a weakening and strength with the direction right, and you can see that the spinning top sort of coincides with that, right? You should not be seeing an increase in range on decreased volume because it's just not strong, that's not strong in terms of buyers. And the same can be said in sellers, right? If you saw a decrease in volume on an increase in range and a push down, right I mean that sellers are losing their their grip a little bit. which certainly makes sense. So all that being said, I think these are the key levels. This is where I'm getting 400 402, 31 uh derives from this top right here on the weekly time frame. Uh, Then 405 33 and 408 16 coincide with Wix on these, uh, weekly candles, right? So you got these two Supply zones. We got our major pivots. we got 390 as a major support slash pivot. Uh, and we can work our way down to the Daily time frame from here I am going to hide some of this stuff and we can come back to it. Uh, but I just want to keep things nice and tidy so you guys don't get uh confused by anything that I am going over. So all that being said, now we can work into the daily time frame and the daily time frame is exhibiting another pretty interesting Candlestick setup as well as uh RSI Divergence. So let's just start off here with the Candlestick this is known as a Bearish Hanging Man and I want to show you this really quick? Uh, it can look a lot like a hammer in this situation, you know, the hammer. Typically the candle would be green. uh, but in a hanging man, it would be a red quote which is precisely what we got. Now the only thing that I don't like about this is typically you want to see these in an uptrend. While this is technically an uptrend, it's coming off of a little retrace move, which is really what leads me to believe we could see that 400 tap before ultimately pushing back down as I mentioned before, and I'm going to show you exactly why I think that uh, that is a high likelihood. but nonetheless, that is a bearish Hanging Man which does coincide with the weekly Candlestick pattern of a uh spinning top which is a reversal signal, right? The same can be said on the daily time frame. This bearish hanging Man would be, uh, a reversal signal that we can expect some sort of push down right. Another pretty interesting level. And the the line here is thinner because it's not as significant as the weekly time frame, but it's still significant. It's 394.88 Now, if you look at this, you've got one, two, three, four different daily candle bottoms or tops that reject it off of this level. And I Want to highlight this because this is an actionable level to me. I Think you could go short on, uh, a break under this, or you could go long on a bounce, right? This is a very big daily level and I Just wanted to highlight that for anybody who's trying to take some trades. Uh, because I do think that's going to matter, right? Another interesting note: We do have three straight days of increased Supply but it's on equivalent range now. I've already checked this out, but you can do this for yourself if you look at these two daily candles on the Range uh. of how high and low these went right, the low to the high here is about five points. On this day, it's Uh 390 14 up to 34.95. this day it was a little less than five points. it was 39304. It's a 397.81 We're just gonna call them both five dollars around even Steven But the important thing to recognize is the law of effort versus result. Now, in this instance, what does that mean? Uh, the law of effort versus result is a Wyckoff Theory It's a Wyckoff method that typically means, uh, what goes in doesn't just magically disappear. It's the idea that nothing can be created nor destroyed like physics, right? You can't just magically make that volume, uh, vanish. That had a purpose. Something happened when those those Uh orders went in on that particular day. but one. We also know that typically when you have more volume, you have more volatility, which equals more range. So why did we have equal range? On a day where we had a significant increase in volume, we went from 74.5 million above shares of volume, but 92.9 million shares of volume? It's likely because this is distribution, and that is what the law of effort versus result is talking about within Wycom Theory is the idea that when you have increased volume, but uh, the same or lesser volatility, you are likely watching buyers and sellers shift preparing for either a markdown or a markup. And in this instance, since we're sort of in an uptrend, and I think hanging pretty high in the trading range I think you're preparing for a mark down, right? And this is going to make a lot more sense when we look at the hourly time frame. but this is just some nice uh Confluence so to speak this: this increase in volume. while we have uh, equal range, equal volatility. this leads me to believe that that's a pretty likely outcome. So I want to discuss that? Uh, if you look at the RSI you also have just a sneaky little RSI Divergence right? Friday to Tuesday Uh, you're setting lower lows on or lower highs on. RSI While you're setting higher highs, and prices typically would precede a markdown, this would be a hidden Divergence That would say eventually bears are going to step up and push price back down, right? This is all the big things that I think were important on the uh daily time frame. One last thing I want to show you is just this 382 tap where we got sort of this nice bounce up. Now, it didn't quite tap exactly the 382, but I always like to think of the 382 as sort of the difference between a continuation setup or a correction and what I mean by that is if you bounce off the 382, you're setting up for the opportunity of, uh, a continuation, right? It's very strong. It's very strong move to bounce off the 382, but if you break it, it's typically more so corrective and I would be targeting the 618 to then maybe start setting lower highs and push down in the opposite direction, right? Well, we bounced off the 302 pretty significantly. I mean if you were to take a ruler and sort of measure this out, it was about a 2 percent bounce and I think if it was to stop somewhere, it's likely going to be that 200. EMA So that's why I said this is one of the things that I think is likely going to happen I think we're going to test 400 or within 400 or close to 400. Uh, and likely reject there if we don't if we don't reject I think we're coming up to 405 bucks which was at 707 back from the weekly time frame. but I do think we're going to I think we're going to retest 400 and that to me is a spot where I'm going to be looking to go short. uh, specifically because of what is coming on the one hour time frame. Now this is really cool and I gotta say uh Dave's got some some big nuts composite Dave if you follow him on Twitter he's a great followers. uh uh Dave Moreno Jr uh he talked to me one day. we chat, we chat all the time about lifting and stocks and stuff and he was talking about Apex points which I was just called points of interest if you look back on my my weekly video last week. I had a couple key points of interest that actually hit uh and there's some really nice ones coming into this week that I think are going to as well and I'm going to take some bold predictions. that's why I think we're gonna hit 388 by Wednesday I Want to talk about why I'm going to show you why I think that and came to that uh conclusion. So now we can hide all these levels and we can work with our hourly time frame level. So I'm going to drop some eclipses. Just let me unhide all this stuff so we can go over it all and try to make it make sense now in no way. shape or form. I'm guaranteeing you we're going to hit these levels right. I'm not a financial advisor. This isn't financial advice. Please manage risk accordingly. Size accordingly. Uh, if you can't lose the money you're betting, then don't bet it, right? These are all things that we know as Traders but it's very high confidence and one of these I've got a lot of confidence in which is the 388 tap. So so far I've made uh two claims. One of these is that we're gonna tap the 200 EMA which is roughly 400 bucks and reject off of that. and secondly is then we're going to test 388 and bounce from that and I'm going to tell you why. So if we look at the one hour time frame, uh, I've got a couple of different Fibs that aren't on the chart right now. I'm going to put them on one at a time. so I don't get too muddy, but we're looking at a falling wedge type setup. You've got a falling level of resistance. a falling level of support that was previously resistant. So you get a touch point right here. Touch point right here. This is what's really key. Check this out tap and a tap here. Now This tap is really clutch. It tells us that buyers are respecting this price level which makes this falling wedge. Now what's really cool about Apex points is to explain this in the most simple way possible. Uh, an apex or a point of interest is when you have uh, two different data points that converge uh, at a specific time. If you find a bunch of data points that converge at a specific time, you can view it as a high probability outcome. Because big money will also look at these levels and these points these points of interest. so to speak, these apexes and say, let's face risk on this. let's try and Target that level because it just seems to make sense, right? Well, we've got two. So looking at this falling wedge setup, looking at the weekly saying, hey, we're likely bearish, We've got a spinning top. We also have a bearish hanging man. We're at the top of this falling falling wedge range setup, right? Uh, rejection off. This makes a pretty good amount of sense. Maybe you come down and you test, uh, the 200, you bounce and you come down regardless, right? This does make a lot of sense. And you've got two dates and I'm gonna actually say that I think this is gonna happen by Wednesday I Think by Wednesday we're gonna tap 388 bucks because we have three different trend lines that converge at this point as well as four different FIB levels that converge at this point. The trend line Taps Come from here. This trend line. Uh, we also have this trend line here. One touch, two touch, three touch and then we've got this trend line: one touch, two touch, three touch, four touch, five touch, and then six touch at 388.

uh I think it's likely gonna happen by Wednesday at 11 o'clock Is this guaranteed to happen? No. Is it possible? Yes. I'm gonna be trading based on this I'm gonna be taking risk based on this I think it's it's possible. Uh and to tap 400 bucks you would also need to break Above This Wedge may I add so uh, the the high probability outcome if we tap 400 reject off that right would be uh that you re-enter the wedge and this is a fake out breakout. it's gonna happen I don't know I mean it's possible it's a claim that I'm making I think it's highly likely uh, but we're gonna watch regardless. so that's my second claim. My second claim is that we're gonna hit 380 bucks and I think that's uh uh, pretty likely and I would actually be looking to go long around 388 to then you know, ride it up about three or four points to the top of this falling wedge setup. Second point of Interest actually maybe I should show you these Fibs because these These are crazy. This FIB is is taking uh, the high at 432 are low at the spring down here at 347. you've got uh Confluence on the 0.5.5 Square on the nut sack in the middle of this. Our next FIB lines up uh, at the high at 415, top of 415, low at the spring and then you've got a 618 touch specifically right there. Next one: 403.53 362. you've got the 382 primarily right there last. FIB I mean I Don't know, man. 373 66 403 You've got the 0.5 specifically right there. That is. Seven different data points. Yeah, seven different data points saying there's a high likelihood we test that level. That's all I'm gonna say uh. next one is this: no Fibs line up. So that's probably the important thing to talk about is that no Fibs line up here. It's more so, just trend line. So I have significantly less confidence in this Fibs make a big difference. Fibs make a big difference, but it does make sense in terms of the end of the falling wedge. I Think that you're gonna be around this little, uh, this little oval around that time frame between 23 November to 30 November ish I Think you're gonna be pretty tight in range and I think you're gonna be setting up for that break up which is really where I'm gonna get start. You know, start getting a little bullish is above that falling wedge setup as long as it doesn't invalidate which are good, right? Certainly could. Um, but nonetheless freaking clean I Mean that's that's pretty dirty I Want to double check really quick just to make sure there's nothing else that I'm forgetting here. Why? I Had all my key claims uh, retest 400 and the 200 EMA a second time lower high setup. Uh, we talked about that you'd have to invalidate the the falling wedge briefly and then re-enter for that to take place. Less confidence in that than 388, but I still think it's high confidence. Uh, in the grand scheme of things, considering the fact that that is a 382 bounce, right? you've also got test 388 by Wednesday and then bounce. Good place to establish long uh and then end week with more confidence in Falling wedge setup. So essentially, uh, just a bouncing back and forth within this range. My third claim would be that I think you're going to set up for this uh, this pretty nice falling wedge, right? that would wind up into the end of November and ultimately push us up. probably in it Decemberish, you know it looks pretty I'd say large scale accumulative if that plays out. short-term distributive. That's probably the best way that I could say this. I'd say on the one month one and a half month time frame accumulative, one week to two week time frame at one week to ten day time frame distributive. You know this is to me setting up for, uh, some markdowns to probably about 387 388. uh, that does make sense. So uh, that was the the weekly daily one hour time frame in terms of spy all the major levels. Uh, you could go back and Rewind and check them out if you'd like to. Uh, dxy I'm Gonna Keep Pretty short and simple I've just got the daily here if it did catch on the 200ma just like we talked about last week. Uh, and I've got a short term Target We got an apex here, right? This is a point of interest. You got a falling trend line, you got a rising Support trend line, and a Fib at the 618 that meets at primarily 108.82.

uh I Think this is likely going to happen because it just gives a retest of that breakdown of major support and then you can push for lower lows and it'll ultimately let's spy cool off a bit which I think is likely going to happen. uh I Don't have much else to say besides that that's my target I Think by some point this week we're going to test 108.82 cents on on Dxy Vix. This is an interesting one because this is a little Divergent from the rest of the market. Uh D Evix. The vix here actually rejected off the 200. uh as well as a 382. So I can actually see this just continuing to push down. If there's gonna be any reason for an invalidation, this is going to be it. But ideally for all my thesis to make sense, you really want to see a double bottom a 2236 to ultimately come back up and retest the 200 again. Uh, keep that pretty simple. We'll move into the options Market data the entirety of the week where it's gonna, uh, change this up really quick so that it shows more than just uh, one day of of Market data. Let's go five days quick. I'm gonna show you what everything happened. Uh, you got a lot of puts. There's a lot of puts open across the market, and I would say a net selling of calls coming into the end of the week. And primarily probably the most important is the fact that Delta exposure was red at the close on. Friday Now I've talked about this before, but in case you're unfamiliar, Dex or Delta exposure is typically uh, thought of as the pricing of the market. So when you have a huge Dex bar, it means a lot of the markets anticipating a move. When you have a small Dex bar, it means a small amount of the market is predicting a move when I see huge green or huge red decks. I Typically am uh, uh, contrarian I Don't think that's likely to happen when you see a small bar. uh I Typically side with that because the market doesn't let everybody win. they only let a small portion of people win. Uh, and we have a slightly small a slight red decks or Delta exposure where we have a small amount of players who are essentially speculating. It will be read by: Monday at open we're gonna gap down and I think that's likely going to happen I think you're gonna get a gap down on Monday I coincides with the rest of the market data and it coincides with the daily candle which was uh, the bearish hanging man. So um, don't have much more to add for that, you know that's something to keep an eye on. And then Google Calendar I've got all the major events going on this week. We got Chicago Fed National activity index at 8 30 on Monday that's the only major event for the US and Tuesday we've got fed Manufacturing Index as well as a couple of speeches three of them by the FED fed uh, Master speech at 11 you had fed George speech at 215 and fed Bullard at 245. if you're trading on Tuesday watch for these time frames because if they get if these guys say something silly uh, it can move price and that can screw up your trade so just be careful. uh Wednesday You got durable goods orders month over month for October as well as initial jobless claims for Nancy November New Home Sales New Home Sales is the one that I think will move price the most you can see spy moving. pretty good amount off this and then 5c minutes from November one to two is uh uh, from two o'clock to three o'clock Eastern on Wednesday this is coming straight from the FED website. The other uh data is coming from this website right here. Economic Calendar if you want to find it, it's just trading Economics.com calendar and it has actually everything including the US and I just I just picked the stuff that I thought was important right? Thursday Market closed and Friday market closes early closes at one o'clock Eastern So um, that's all the big stuff I guess I got nothing else to add. hopefully that was valuable and uh, we'll look at everything after that. Hope you guys by the way. Enjoy! Thanksgiving I'm going to be heading to to Iowa to hang with my Uncle Mike uh Monday night and I'll bring my laptops I'll be looking at charts and stuff but more focused on hanging out with family and just catching up with people. I haven't seen my my aunt in a while. Uh, my Aunt Renee got stage four cancer and she's down to her last couple chemo treatments and he's gonna make it so it's gonna be good to see her and my uncle and I just I'm just gonna spend time with him so um, probably not much else gonna happen. Uh I'll take some trades and I Hope you guys enjoy your week so catch y'all later. Watch all my taps! Peace.