What's up you beautiful people welcome back to cherry street. How are we doing today got a little bit of a tribute to lamp. Lamp over here has been holding the fort down during these live streams, but i got ta go take a quick, a quick leaky wiki over at the urinal over here in my bathroom and a lot of people love this thing so props to lamb for holding up The fort, whenever i'm gone, but i am here right now to deliver this message to you. What is up, everybody welcome to trace trades uh, where we get technical analysis, different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy holders opinions on these.

Given stocks like the profits by saying that i'm not a financial advisor and we're experts so secretly the grain of salt, let's get into the video, so today we're gon na, be keeping this pretty bare bones. Minimum want to keep as much time in your hands as possible and just running you through the basic numbers and technical analysis that we have currently on amc stock as of today. So we're going through ortex we're gon na go through the daily short sale volume. We're gon na go through uh the current in the money, call options and and uh a little bit of the call options then finish off the video with the technical analysis setup as well as show you uh, a pretty huge buyer.

I think a lot of people are aware of this, but for those who are not uh we're gon na walk you through the biggest buyer that we've seen on amc stock, it probably so far, and it's pretty exciting so without further ado, let's get into the video. So before we get into this, i wan na walk you through exactly what i'm gon na be using on the technical analysis before we come back to this, and it is going to be the 15 ma, which is this blue trend line and the the 200 ema Which is this purple trend line? The 15 ma is the moving average. It's a 15 day, moving period, uh trend line that gives you an average price valuation trend line over that 15 day moving period. It's a lagging trend line that does not predict the future.

Then the 200 ema is the exponential moving average. This is the price action-based evaluation trend line over a 200-day movie period, which gives us a macroscopic perspective of the overall price action over that 200-day moving period. Again, it is a lagging trend line, so it does not predict the future. It only gives us an idea of what we're looking at in the past, so we can put both of these together and predict some of the future outcomes.

I'm also going to be looking at the overall volume on the stock, i'm going to be looking at the the candle action, the trend, action, all that sort of stuff and we'll walk you through exactly what i'm looking for as we get into the chart setup here. So, let's start off here with ortex, because this is probably the most exciting piece of what is going on with amc stock right now. That is the the numbers right, the short interest numbers, which is absolutely freaking nuts. It's crazy! We're gon na go over the utilization.

The cost of borrowing days to cover shares on loan percentage of free float on loan and the estimated short interest percentage of free float. So, in order to understand all this, we're going to start off with utilization now utilization is the idea of how many lendable shares are currently out on loan. So, hypothetically speaking, if you had 100 shares on loan, 100 utilization would mean that uh 100 shares out of those hundred shares available. All 100 of them are out, and zero percent utilization would mean that out of those 100 shares available for loan, that zero of them are out.

So since we have 99.93 utilization, which is astronomically high, this is the highest that it has been since it has been 100 in the past. This means that they have 99.93 of the current available shares on loan out on loan right now now this doesn't necessarily mean that every single share on loan is being shorted, as you can see, there's a little bit of a difference right. So you see 150 million total shares on loan and uh that comes out to about 36 percentage of the 36 of the free float right, but that doesn't equate to 23. You know short interest right.

That would mean that all the shares on loan are currently not being shorted we're gon na walk through that in a little bit. But i wanted to preface by saying that this utilization does not refer to the exact number of shares that are actually being shorted. The cost of borrow this is actually not correct right here or text is a little bit lagging in that sense, so we're going to use iborodesk to show you what this cost to borrow is. This is an annualized interest rate that short positions and people who are out on loan pay on their stock.

Now i've seen people ask you know i took them by spit. Oh god, i got too excited anyways. The short borrow fee rate. This will go up and down i've.

Seen people ask this a couple times trey. Why does this go up? Why does this go down? The short bar free rate actually went down today right. It went down from 21.25 at its height down to about 18.9 today, which is actually still incredibly high right now. The reasoning for this is that short barrel fee rate coincides with price action hard to borrow this like how available available? Is it for a stock to be shorted right, which for amc, it's actually not really even possible on weibo there's, not even a short button available for this, so it's those two things and the chances of coming out profitable.

How much risk is there associated with having a share on loan right, a loan which is, which is you know, the shares on loan and a short position if it is very risky, the odds of you coming out profitable are low. That interest rate will go up right now, since we had a red day today on amc, the short bar fee rate actually went down, which is to be expected right. Any time that you see this go down the odds of a short position coming out. Profit will go up and the risk associated goes down because they have a higher chance of coming back down to a green position.

However, we did not drop that much right. We dropped down to about 18.9 percent, and that is what that annualized interest rate is and how it is associated with the current stock price and different factors basic cover. Now this isn't a number that i pay super close attention to, and this has been confused a couple of times with when shorts have to cover positions, and that's not necessarily the case right so days to cover actually refers to the short interest divided by the three Month average volume right - and this is actually a number - that's starting to come to be a little more useful because we have been you know, trading amc for about three months now. This number is actually gon na.

Give you a better idea of how difficult it is for a short to come out profitable on their position days to cover any number over 1.0. I would consider it to be significant. Anything over one would signify to me that it is becoming difficult for a short to come up profitable on their position, and this coincides with the fact that we did in fact have a squeeze. One was at 2.4 right, so it was at 2.4.

The odds that are coming out more profitable was low because the stock price was already down to a low of two bucks right, very, very low stock price that coincided with that 2.42 number. The low was actually two dollars and two cents and it squeezed up now. The numbers starting to go up we've seen an increase of 13 percent over the last seven days, which is good. That means we're trending in the right direction.

That means we're stepping towards the odds of us coming out with a squeeze potential on our hands shares on loan. This comes out to 150.59 million, which is 10.81 higher than we've seen seven days ago. This is huge because whether or not these shares on loan are actually shorter or not, they, they are shares that are unavailable right. This is part of the utilization.

These shares on loan. Unless these people, who who got lent the shares, decide to lend out to somebody else which institutions and other hedge funds can do by the way these are unavailable to shorters right, this is gon na be hard to get. That means that the available shares for shorting goes down whether these are shorted or not, they're, still paying that annualized uh short, borrow free rate of 18.9 percent right now, which can go up or down depending on the profitability of their position right. This is huge.

This is so astronomically high, that is 36 percent of the total free float that is currently on loan. That is a huge number. Those are shares that can't get in the hands of shorts are already in the hands of shorts. I mean that they're running out of freaking ammunition, that's massive.

Now some people might not know what the free float on loan is and we'll just break it down for you in a super super simple ape way. The free fall on loan refers to what is left of the overall pie after insiders and institutions get their cut, so you can see that the shares outstanding is 450 million, but the free float is 417 million. This is 99 of the time going to be lower than the actual shares outstanding, because this is what's available to retail investors after the insiders get their cut and the institutions get their cut right. So the the free flow percentage that you're seeing right here the shares on loan is huge right.

That means that 36 of, what's available to the actual retail investor, the general public is already out on loan, which is massive. This comes out to a whopping 23.03 estimated short interest percentage of free float, not including puts not including etf shorts, and not including any naked shorts that may exist on the market uh. This is actually a little bit higher. 23.04 is the estimate.

As of today's live update, changes on ortex, which is astronomical right, we saw this go up just barely. Today i mean an increase of 0.04 is pretty negligible, which isn't huge. So i would say today was a consolidation day in terms of short interest going up, but nonetheless making great progress, taking some leaps and strides, and we are going in the right direction in terms of the shorts doubling down, which is going to only increase the odds Of us coming out profitable when this freaking squeezes it's going to be massive, i want to go over the daily short sale volume percentage now this was from yesterday, and this tells you how much of the actual volume was short volume compared to long volume right 58. As of april 19th, with short volume - and you can see that we are following this trend of increasing short volume, meaning that shorts are doubling down on positions they're hammering away on this thing - and it coincides exactly with what ortex is saying: free fall percentage on loan Going up shares on loan going up days to cover going up casa bar going up utilization going up.

All these numbers are going up, which coincides with the fact that we have an increasing trend in short positions. Doubling down it's stupid, it's nasty! It's disgusting we're going in the right direction guys so when we have these red days these consolidation days all these days, where nothing's happening, you have to look at the grand scheme of things. The grand scheme of things is. This is getting shorted, as we all know, the short percentage is going up and we know that just looking at the stock price and the numbers associated with it now, i want to show you guys the shares available to borrow, keep in mind that this is not Taking into consideration all the available exchanges to us right, this is uh.

This is only limited exchanges for short volume, but it takes all exchanges for the total market volume that gives us about 150. 000.. Now i don't use this number to say. This is how many shares are available to borrow in terms of they're almost out of ammunition, but in terms of the trending down right, so we're trending down in terms of short shares available.

This is going to be a very hard to borrow stock, which is going to increase that short bar fee rate over time, which we have seen happen right. Massive massive massive that short bar fee rate also goes up. That etf shares available is gone up a little bit. Maybe it stayed stagnant, not a lot changing there, but i pulled this up for majority uh wise was just to show you the call options expiring in the money.

We don't have as many call options expiring in the money this week, which i don't mind. That's not a big deal, i'm not expecting us to squeeze this week by any means. In fact, i think it's gon na happen, maybe one or two months down the road. No dates set but we're just not there yet we're not there.

Yet we don't have the volume we just don't have the setup. We need some more some more people to buy into the stock, which is just factual right, but looking at this, we've got 12 178 call options expiring in the money on april 23rd uh as of right now, and we would have 39 510 at 10. Now, if we come over here to the options chain, you can see the open interest in terms of what we have on the 23rd and this would add up. It's just doing the math for us right.

So if we add in that extra, you know 10 strike. You would have 28 000 call options expiring in the money. Not all these are necessarily by calls. It could be covered calls, we don't know for sure, but nonetheless we are trending in the right direction and this could hypothetically lead to delta hedging or essentially uh market makers, hedging for the fact that they're expecting some call options to be in the money that may Be exercised which pushes the stock price up because these end up getting purchased from market value right.

So a lot of great things happening right now. The last thing that i maybe want to show before we get into the charts is vanguard. Vanguard has purchased a pissed ton of stock across all of their different funds right, their total stock market index, their small cap index, their small cap value index, extended market index and the russell 2000. You have a crap ton, 12 million 10 million 6 million 5 million and 758 000, which means that they own.

What does this come out to 22? We'll call that 29 33 we'll call that 34 million total shares out of the shares outstanding. So these guys own a big piece of the pie, and i don't think it's by accident that these guys own so much freaking stock. They own a lot of stock, guys they own a lot of stock and that's not by accident vanguard, does not pick stocks by accident they're in this to make money. They don't care about this.

They don't care about the retail investor they're gon na make money, which means that we have the same interest in mind that is making cash right. A lot of great things happening right now in terms of amc stock. We've got so much good news on the horizon. I talked yesterday about this um this this april 22nd sec filing that that i shouldn't say finally but statement essentially saying you guys need to match collateral for liquidity.

I mean you guys see all this good news popping around there's too much good stuff. For me to say, this is a dead cat, it never was a dead cat, it won't be a dead cat and this thing is still 100 squeezable. Now what i want to show you in particular with the with the technical setup right now. It's just super simple stuff, where we are right now and where we are grand scheme of things microscopic, macroscopic, right, obviously, red right now we had a green day yesterday, just barely about four percent today was a red day opened red, which coincided pretty much even steven With the spy and iwm right, the spy had a massive massive selloff today, initially at market open, you saw it was a negative.

I think two percent on the day which for uh you know an etf, is extremely high selling rate. That's that's a huge drop, and this coincided with with amc as well as iwm. Iwm also had a pretty solid sell-off, and this coincided picture perfect. With amc happened right, i mean look at this setup.

These are our two hour candles massive sell-off, consolidation and a slight recovery. You look at amc, it's probably gon na look dang near the same i mean you had a massive sell-off two-hour consolidation, slight recovery right. So a lot of this stuff, i think, is because of the current market conditions. I think you're, seeing a lot of these big hedge funds start to move some liquidity from other stocks into you know having collateral for maybe this april 22nd date.

It's all obviously here say it's all speculation. We don't know for sure, but that's my hypothesis, so keep it on the back of our minds, grand scheme of things i'm going to start with the microscopic actually microscopic slight selloff, we're still sitting in a good spot. Nonetheless, still consolidating, i would, i would call this consolidation between a pretty tight price zone, so you're consolidating between a triple bottom right here at about nine dollars and then what could be eventually a triple top at about 11 25.. Now, if we get a triple top right here, something that i want to point out that i find very fascinating is the last time we had a triple top setup like this was back here in what would have been early february and what happened is we had A triple top three touch points at a level of resistance, which happened to be about 659, followed by a down period in which we touched about five dollars and fifty cents and after we finally got the push over this triple top setup.

It ran and it ran hard. We went up to 1189 initially and then followed it through with a run up to about 1487 at its peak right now. What do you see in common here? I'm all about trends. Technical analysis is all about trends outside of this false breakdown right here.

This is following the exact same trend as that triple top, in which we ended up. Testing 1487.. Now we're gon na follow through, with this exact same setup, this exact same trend. I would imagine that you're gon na see a triple up in price.

That's if we follow through right, i'm not guaranteeing anything but based on trends triple top right here. Top top top three touch points breakthrough right, top top, maybe a second, a third top right here. Pretty quick here triple top, maybe another rejection, then it pushed through 11 25.. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25 to 30 bucks right initially initially getting us set up for that.

Next, squeeze leg run up right, stepping in the right direction, uh just based on trends alone. I think that is something worth pointing out. I like paying attention to that as a technical analysis guy, but in the grand scheme of things, if you don't care about the overall trend, what i will show you is just a simple pattern: right: 15 minutes underneath the 200 dma it's slightly hooking down, but i Would call this pretty uh pretty lateral it's about even steven, which typically indicates an upcoming uh period of consolidation right 15 mm underneath the 200 dma says that microscopically this is bearish, which we obviously know we spent the majority of the day trading underneath the v-wop today, The volume average price which you can see right here, there's this gold indicator. This is the average price of anybody who bought holding that day right.

So if we have the average price sitting at 923 at the end of the day - and we finished the day closed above that, that would mean that the average person who bought that day would not be a bank holder. They would be slightly in the green. Vice versa, if you have the v wob sitting at about 9 30 at the beginning of the day, but the price is down here at 9 12. That would mean that the average person's price for that day who bought in that day the average price was 938 and you're trading, underneath that meaning that most people are red on the day.

So today we were pretty pretty bearish right trading underneath the view. Op is obviously not a good thing and uh. That's something you keep in the back of your mind in terms of watching to see how we're sitting on a current day. Uh in terms of you know, is the short borrow free rate going to go down.

Are more people likely to buy? Should the volume be low? Volume is always going to be lower on a daily trade underneath the v-wap. So that's something to keep in the back of your mind, but other than that. That's kind of a small scale. Large scale, look at the trend lines right.

You've got a descending level of resistance. Right. Three touch points is what we look for so to signify respected level of resistance. One two three and then we got three touch points right here.

Uh on this ascending level of support, one two, three right: what this signifies to me is that sometimes within the next one, two three four, maybe five trading days, you're gon na - have a pretty hard push for the upside or the downside. I'd be more inclined to think the upside, since the macroscopic trend is bullish and we're looking at a macroscopic trend right now right, but nonetheless this is significant, because this is a squeeze down in price action. When you're setting lower highs and higher lows, you're loading a spring when you load that spring up, if you follow through with volume, you get a violent move and i would expect a violent move sometime within the next one week or so right. So that's something you can keep in the back of your mind to watch for watch for this.

You can easily draw this up yourself, connect dots! That's all that you're doing technical analysis really is not hard you're connecting dots, you're. Looking at trends, you're. Looking at trend lines, you want to see things psychologically about what you're, seeing on the charts right. Last thing i want to touch on is going to be this.

Overall volume did not have a lot of volume. Today, volume has been steadily declining, which is resulting in a decreasement in volatility, without that volume you're not going to squeeze i'm looking for between 300 to 500 million in total volume on a day to get this thing moving, and it's not there yet. So we got to watch for that. I don't think a squeeze is happening this week.

I don't think a squeeze is happening next week. I could be wrong right, but it's not going to happen until you see a bump in volume and the volume is still decreasing and we need that volume to go up. If you want any sort of squeeze um, i i do think it's going to happen, but i just don't think it's happening yet. We've got to be patient patience, patience, patience, my fellow apes.

We can hold forever, but they cannot the longer. They hold the more piss that they're draining down the freaking drain. My friends - and that is what i've got for the video here today. If you enjoyed it, please drop a like.

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