Well, it is kind of here the bear market has kind of arrived at one point. Today we had tapped down to about 380 on the spy which is uh classified as a bear market, as i'm going to uh to show you guys, but before we get into it guys. What is up? Welcome to trade trades really freaking talk fast and just get classified by saying that i'm going to find your advisor expert so take what i said: the green salt uh, let's get into it today, there's a couple things that i want to discuss. Uh number one is the fact that we are on the verge of a bear market.

There is a potential for a rally i'm going to go over some different data points, and this will give us an idea of what to expect with small cap names such as amc, gamestop, blackberry, bed, bath and beyond. All right, whether this is a great time to uh to load a dip or if we see more painting coming i'll i'll, show you what that kind of looks like and then. Secondly, i would like to talk about the vix. Yesterday i was on twitch.tv anti juicers in the description box.

Down below i'll be streaming live tonight uh and we were talking about sort of the state of the spy and what we thought was going to happen and one uh one of the viewers in chat had talked about the vixen. I think there's an important lesson to be had there so uh, let's get right into it now now i think i was probably one of the only people uh on fintwit that was bearish going into today, and i had a very specific thing that i had stated In terms of what i expected for the spy today - and it basically happened, i want to show you guys this clip and if you want to catch this stuff, we do an hour of market talk every single day when we start live streaming. We typically start at 5, 30 p.m, central uh monday through thursday. So i'm just gon na play this quick.

So you have an idea of what i'm talking about. We shall see looking for 385 on spy tomorrow. To be honest, if it taps 385, i think it's gon na break 380.. I do expect a really hard bounce of 380, so don't get greedy guys do not please, by the love of god, do not get greedy.

These fibs always have violent, violent, violent rallies. Look historically and you're going to see this and every market crash fibs have violent rallies. Don't i wanted to touch on this, and not even necessarily because i was right, but because it was predictable and why i think it was predictable is, is there's a common theme in bear markets and that uh, it's very simple. It's that bear markets like to respect fibonacci levels.

Now the way that i was able to anticipate that 380, you would get a violent bounce to the upside which we did get by the way you witnessed today. One of the most absurd moves that i've seen in quite some time a push from 395 all the way down to 380. All the way back up to 390, which is uh 15 25 points worth of swinging 25 dollars on the spy, an etf uh of swinging. We actually another day green, let that sink in uh.

The reason i was able to anticipate that is because, historically speaking, any time that uh the spy in a bear market, which is classified as uh being down more than 20 from its peak, which we officially hit today uh. Whenever this happens, you witness large bounces. So as an example, i'm gon na pull up a fib based on the covet crash right if we were to drop a fib right here from the bottom to the top, and you witness sort of where you get these. These historical bounces you're gon na find that it's on these fib levels right uh, you get this 382 bounce, which is the exact same thing that we got today.

Uh bam huge smoke up. You get a bounce off of uh. What appears to be the 0.5 huge rip up? You got ta bounce off of the the six six one eight bam huge rip up. You look back to 2008.

The exact same thing happened. We come back here to 2008. What you're going to notice is that 382 had a violent bounce to the upside. In fact, i think you actually witnessed the spy of the days that it tested it finished green uh, in which you, you certainly did so technical analysis and fibonacci retracements, and all these different technical terms, whatever are all very, very valuable uh, especially when the the stakes Of everything are so high.

This is going to give us an idea of not when the market is going to be done bleeding right, but it gives us a a reference point places that we can kind of watch uh. What is going to designate hey? We can expect more selloff or we can expect a bounce. I have uh videos on technical analysis. If you'd like to check this out, i put a lot of time into it.

Uh, it's it's it's about an hour and 20 minutes long, but i really do think it's well worth your time uh, because i did go very in-depth and it teaches you everything that you need to know about where to watch for uh these different specific levels. If you want to find it, i've got an options: master class which is right here everything you need to know about options. Then i've got a technical analysis, uh charting specific master class, which is called an options attorney master class. If you look up charting masterclass, my name at the end of it you'll be able to find that stuff.

This will help. You uh be able to see these things, and this is important because uh this is the the spy is correlated very directly with amc and gamestop and there's a a clip of jordan belford. When i interviewed him way back in the day, people always say trey uh did you actually get scammed for ten thousand dollars by jb uh, and my answer is no. I paid him ten thousand willfully, but at the time i felt like i was ripped off, but he did say one thing: uh that was very important and that was that was uh significant and it was that uh in a bear market.

Nothing can ride the wave everything gets crushed by the wave and and when the spy is done with this bearish phase, you're going to witness a massive rally amongst everything, which is why being able to track these things is very important, especially if you're trying to uh To time different things or trade different stocks, which brings me into the vix, the vix is very, very important. I like to call the vix the fear index so anytime that the vix is incredibly high. You typically see an inverse uh to the spy. The spy is usually uh going through a bare face.

You can see this right here when the vix tapped 85 back in march of 2020. Well, wouldn't you know it back in march of 2020 is when you witnessed this massive sell-off. In fact, this was the absolute bottom day for the spies when the vix was at that uh all-time high or not all-time high, but at least uh yearly high right uh. So that's one predictive measure, but the more important thing and what's what's really important about the vix and why i want to mention this is anytime that the vix is juiced like this, the volatility s p 500 index uh.

You typically see what the name of the index is more volatility, ah, which means, if you're a trader, it's number one very difficult to swing trade. Anything you're gon na have a very difficult time, as as things go like this whiplashy, i mean it's really really hard to surf that wave and not get juked out and get emotional about a position uh and number two. You have to be quick on your feet. Things can switch around on the flip of a dime anytime that the vix or the the volatility indexers i like to call it.

The fear index is incredibly high. Just like we got to witness today uh the spy bounced immediately off of that fibonacci retracement. That 382 tapped it bam. That was the lowest that it went for the entirety of the day, and that is for a specific reason.

It's because uh the spy likes to respect random numbers that sequence themselves together. Who knows why that's how algorithms are programmed uh, but they are predictive and uh. This is gon na help us out with being quick on our feet, uh. So so that's something important to note, which brings me into what i want to close it off with uh amc.

Uh, specifically, you saw the same bounce out of amc. It got a bounce off of a fibonacci level right here, very technical, very critical. It tried to bounce right here at a different fit point, which was, i think, the point five, but i got ta bounce off the six one. Eight amy loves the six one, eight who knows why uh, but that did in fact happen, and what i really really really want to double down on is is very important.

I'm gon na show you guys the daily we had a red day today. It was down eight percent on the day uh. What you're going to find is this this obv, this blue line down here i touch on this all the time. I'm going to say it again.

This obv, staying consistent and showing an accumulation of shares is significant. It's very very significant because this tells you that, despite the sell-off that you're seeing around the market, despite the bear market that we have officially entered today, i would consider this rally that we saw to be a bear market rally, meaning that, yes, i do believe, there's More downside on the spy, but i will take it day by day and sort of watch things if it breaks 380 and it hard breaks 380 you're watching the next fib level, which is the 0.5 350 bucks. I genuinely think if it breaks this 302 that you could see that tap and when the spy bottoms and when you get the bottom of this bear market amc game, stop small caps, mid caps, large caps. Everything is going to cap out to the to the ceiling.

It's going to have a massive massive bullish, uh rally and until that day comes uh, we have to be paying attention to what's sort of happening from an economic standpoint. Uh and i've said this before i'll say it again until uh something economically changes until inflation has gotten better or or we see significant data, saying that uh interest rate hikes have helped out the economy to to tighten things down and slow the rate of inflation, uh Nothing's changed and if nothing's changed, that means that things are still pricing it uh and until things are done, pricing in there's just there's just more paint, and i think this is important to to talk about uh, because that's ultimately what we can do right, we can Talk about these things, we can educate ourselves and we can try to capitalize on the downside, the upside, the sideways, the whatever. In the meantime, while we're waiting yesterday's video, i talked about uh gabe plotkin, he's the the ceo and sort of uh manager of uh. What was melvin capital, which is going out of business, and in that video? I said something very important.

I said uh gabe plotkin is one million percent responsible for uh. What happened with teachers? Pension plans, ken griffin, which is the ceo of citadel, stated that it is the fault of retail that these teachers don't have pension plans anymore. They don't have retirement money, they don't have this. They don't have that, but at the end of the day it was gabe's fault.

Because of one simple thing: you control the buy button. You control the sell button unless you don't have control over one of those two things which has happened in retail, but in this moment every single day, somebody's making money in the market and what that comes down to is controlling the controllables. How do we react to the market and there's different ways of doing it? We can buy dips uh, we can dollar cost average our way into positions. If you're, it's a long term buy and holder uh.

You keep doing your thing and watch these levels and buy the dip and wait because, in the end of the day, the market will do what the market does it will it will recover, it will rally, it will find a way to keep growing. As america does uh and if you're a trader, it means being light on your feet, quick to the trigger uh executing flawlessly, because that's really what it takes in this in this insane market. You really can't get wrapped up in emotions and that sort of thing, because at the end of the day, uh, when you lose a trade, it's on you, you have the the control to uh. Do whatever you have to do you pull the trigger.

You push the buy button. You push the cell button. All the control uh is in your hands, so uh. I really want to touch on this, because this was a a super.

Super predictable uh sell-off bounce uh. We talked about it yesterday on twitch. If you'd like to be there, we do it every single day, we'll do it again today, so uh, that's what i've got for the video i'll, probably start live streaming on twitch at i'm gon na guess uh. I should probably be around by 5 30..

I'm going to take my mom out for some dinner real quick here, but uh yeah, 5, 30 p.m. Central standard time appreciate y'all tuning in buckle in boys and girls uh, because i really do think there is more pain ahead and i just wanted to be able to discuss that and jim cramer you silly son of a gun. I remember when he said that he saw a rally, i think it was like a tuesday or a wednesday. He said i could see a market rally this day.

I think pretty sure the spy is down like uh. I don't know eight ten percent since he said that goober, that's what i got for you guys appreciate you all. Take it easy, much lovely taps and peace.