Friends, family we've got a freaking cnx cowboy hat on, because treading the waters of the current market conditions is like the wild wild west. Let me tell you: uh: we got ta have to buck up uh in order to to to surf this wave guys. Welcome back and it's trey your boy, i'm not a function but he's not financial advice. Please take what i said: they're going to sell, do what you got to do right today, i'd like to talk about the broad market, because i've alluded to this before.

I think it was about three days ago, or so i put out a video saying that i think the spy is kind of at a pivotal moment: the s p 500. It is the uh, the top 500 large cap companies in the u.s stock market, essentially saying we could be entering into a bearish market, and today, i'd like to discuss what i view as the two real choices that people have to make in terms of how they Want to react to this, neither one is better than the other. It's entirely dependent on your current financial situation and your time situation right time being a really big piece of this, so uh we're gon na discuss a couple different things leading into that. I want to go over the spy.

What the technicals look like right now kind of talk about the macroeconomic situation, some of the corruption manipulation, the bad decision, making the political decisions that have led us here and then i'd like to sort of go over some stakes and what that looks like right. Emotionality psychology uh discuss perhaps the missed timing of trying to time the bottom of the market and then finally, what i think is the answer, at least for myself. Personally i'll tell you guys what i want to do, but ultimately that decision lies in your hands. So, let's dive into this today, uh you can see the spy is sitting at a pretty bad spot.

I just talked about this three days ago. They had two levels, this white line, the secondary white line and then a break underneath both of these. You can see that this was followed through by some pretty heavy volume. This white arrow down here signifying the amount of volume that you had on that breakdown and uh.

These were levels that were pretty heavily respected for a long time. You can see different bounce levels here: right, bounce bounce, bounce, uh, bounce bounce, bounce, bounce, there's a lot of times that the spy is bounced off of these two levels of support, which are essentially hard levels to break. Underneath. You typically see rejections at these points and a break underneath.

That is not a great sign right uh, but i do think there is a little bit of good news. I have drawn up here a fibonacci retracement, the 786, which is highlighted in yellow here. With that circle is typically a spot in which you can expect some form of a bounce out of the spy, and i wouldn't be surprised to see this in the short term gon na bounce back up to the 618, maybe even the 0.5 right it could come Up here and try to re-test some previous highs, uh between 447 453, but the point stands that i do believe in the next month or two. You are due for some form of a uh, a correction and maybe even a short-term recession.

Now, what's sort of the reasoning behind this, why do i think we're gon na face that thing right? Why why the big word recession? Well, the fed is sort of the root of all problems here. Everything that you're watching play out with the economy as it sits right now were decisions that were out of your control. While you were, you were getting gaslighted about how you don't deserve a 600 stimulus check, the fed printed off trillions of dollars and handed out most of that to institutions and banks to try and loosen up the economy to make lines of credit cheaper to lower interest Rates to make it more accessible to money than it's ever really been in a very long time to try to stimulate the economy. Well, that band-aid solution that jerome powell is pretending was uh.

Transitory right, inflation is transitory, was not in fact transitory, and we are dealing with ramifications of that right now we are battling, perhaps the the beginning of hyperinflation and that's a scary thing and the fed has to kind of counteract that decision-making they had over the past Year by flipping completely bearish and that's affecting the way that stocks are trading uh considerably. The large cap companies are blue chips, such as nvidia apple, tesla, a bunch of different stocks across a bunch of different sectors are all sort of getting faded right now and i think, coming into earnings season, you could see some sort of a nice pop right. It's possible, but i think they will most likely be followed through by fade unless there's some nice inflation or cpi data that comes out to counteract sort of what the fed has been talking about uh. Furthermore, i want to show you guys uh something really really quick in terms of what the spy has been doing, because this is important over the past four days, you've seen the spy sort of follow the same pattern and trend, and that trend has been you get An early day pop, followed by a fade followed by a knife and uh, it's been a pretty powerful sort of uh fade and knife situation off that early day pop, and i think that is signifying and you can go.

Watch jim cramer pump. Netflix pump, uh peloton pump bunch a whole whole bunch of different stocks, and what i think you're seeing happen is institutions dumping on by the dippers as of right. Now now you can continue to buy the dip all the way down right. It's entirely up to you, your money is your money at the end of the day uh, but i think it's important to be able to watch this stuff, because, while it is legal quote, unquote you don't really have anybody governing that or saying hey.

This is what's happening such as maybe the sec or the institutions themselves or mainstream media who's, claiming that now is the time to buy. This is the bottom, jim cramer, infamously saying this is the bottom and i'll tell you what jim kramer? If it's not the bottom, i'm gon na make another another sad money with crim jamer on friday, and you can expect that to be a work of art, but nonetheless, that brings me to this. There are stakes at hand here which are going to affect the two decisions that i'm about to go over next uh for yourself coming into this uncertain, or at worst case scenario, bearish market. I view them as this right number.

One is miss timing. If you miss time the bottom, let's say that you uh you decide. You want to just wait and wait and wait and wait uh or maybe you're trying to get out of your stocks and try and time the bottom of this market uh. There is real conflict with missed timing, depending especially on how much money you have, but also the market is unpredictable.

I can tell you this right now myself. Personally, i would have no faith, absolutely no faith, trying to absolutely time the bottom of the market with any sort of purchase. That's a trading decision right. If you want to trade the market, you can do so right, uh, but it's difficult to do, and that brings me to the second problem which is emotionality.

It is no no hidden truth that bearish markets breed fear and it's very hard to make decisions under fearful conditions. So how can you avoid these sort of things? Well, you have to take the stakes out of the equation. If you're worried about mistiming the market and you're worried about the emotionality of a bearish market, then it leads me to two sort of decisions that i myself would personally make and you make what is best for you. The first one is this right.

You are you're along in a market right, because bulls inevitably make money over time. That's just direction of the market. That's the way that it should be business grows. Economy grows, yadda, yadda, yadda in the long term, 10 years from now.

If you were to buy any any decent stock, most likely you're going to make money uh, but there is sort of an issue with that. You do run into recessions and you do run into short term blips in which you don't have any growth. And in that short term you do face the possibility of mis-timing and emotionality of the market. You might lose some brain cells, you might.

You might have to do a little bit of that uh that therapy stuff uh, while you're watching your your money. You know supposedly sort of evaporate, so the first scenario in which i think you can sort of pro fix fix. The situation in the short term is by buying the dip, and that is not to be confused with buying the fake dip, because i think that's currently where we are right now now i want to explain to you what i think that would inevitably mean so i'm Going to draw it up for you right now check this out uh right now. What i think you're watching happen is institutions are dumping on retail by the dippers uh.

I think you're watching an early morning pump on the spy followed by a fade period, followed by a break underneath some level of support and a hard knife, and what i think you're watching happen in that scenario is institutions. Market makers and all the big boys are just pumping up stocks to try and trap retail, so they inevitably get stuck uh holding a bag that the institutions dumped on you. So how do you avoid that sort of situation? Well, you come back to the spy. You come back to the broad market.

You come back to any stock in which you're trying to buy the dip on, and i will personally be waiting for confirmation of a bounce or a bottom on the dip, and that means most likely that you're not going to catch the bottom of the dip. So why would you not just dollar cost average the whole way down right? Well, you could do that if you'd like, but let's just say that you're on a dry powder right, let's say that you average down here the average down here the average down here the average down here the average down here and then in the infamous uh. Oh looks like i got a bounce, oh didn't: do it just keeps knifing a knifing and knifing and you're out of money right here. Well then, you have a little bit of a problem.

How can you avoid that issue? Well, you're very strategic, with the way that you buy the dip, not timing, the market, but waiting for the market to give you confirmation of a bottom and that confirmation comes down to simple technical analysis. Uh tools right, such as engulfing candlestick patterns on a daily, such as waiting for a couple days of uh of nice, bullish, confirmation or trend. Something like this right. You look at uh.

You look at the spy on this chart right here dating on october 14th. 2021. You get this nice bottom. It use out real decent, gets a bounce off of this oh line, the red line right here and it bounces back up and comes around right.

That to me would be an instance where you are trying to catch a confirmation of a nice reversal. That's what i would do as a buy the dipper right. I would wait for that reversal confirmation. That means most likely, as i mentioned before, that you are not going to catch the absolute bottom.

That is okay right. What is most important is that in that scenario, where you want to buy the dip that you buy the dip, but not the dip, the dip, the dip before the dip before the dip before the dip before the dip before the dip before the dip right. Because you're just gon na run out of money, you could have done it better. The other option is this, and this is personally what i am going to be doing.

While i wait for that dip and in the end, you can still buy the dip as well, and that is to hedge now the difference between hedging against a long position and simply just waiting to buy the dip is. The second option requires more time, management to to hedge against a short-term bearish market or a recession. I think what you really have to do is play long puts, which means they buy to open, sell the closed, put position or you can play covered, calls uh or you can play cash. Secured puts right there's a lot of different ways that you can do it, but at the end of the day, what you're trying to do is collect income uh.

While you wait for your long positions to go back into a bullish market, i would not personally, this is just me, do what you got to do. I would not close out of uh any positions out of fear. I think that's a bad decision to make uh, but ultimately do what's best for you right. What i would simply do - and this is what i'm going to be doing - is hedging against my long positions so that i have uh made some money in order to buy the dip right.

The caveat being, as i mentioned before, that you're just gon na have to have more time management, a decent basic understanding of trading uh and that you know what you're doing i'll be looking at the s. P, 500 iwm tesla nvidia amd, affirm holdings, microsoft right, i'm just going to look at a bunch of different blue chip stocks and i'm going to play the basic ta patterns that i know and love. And i have a video about my strategy that i'll link uh and an info card up here in case you'd like to check out what i personally do uh myself. But this is the difference between those two strategies.

One is for those who do not want to allocate a lot of time. The other is for those who have more time and they would like to attempt to trade the market. There are less risky ways to do it. You can play covered calls.

You can play cash secured puts there are more risky ways to do it. You can play long puts i personally. I have a lot of faith and conviction and my ability to trade, so i play long puts on the spy and on blue chip stocks. That's just me: you ultimately have to make what decision is best for you, uh yourself, and i'm going to wrap up the video with this.

We are going to be absolutely fine, even if this recession does come to fruition over the next month or two right. I think it is an over hyping of fear. I i do not think we have enough of a catalyst to have a true market crash, but i do think we have enough fear to have a short-term correction and everybody will be absolutely okay in time. Uh.

In the short term, things are going to be ugly and by short term i mean it could be months right if this ends up playing out and over the next one month, two months three months, you could see some rent in your portfolio. If you choose to do nothing, that decision is ultimately up to you uh, but in the long term the direction of the market is clear. It's bullish and as long as you have conviction in your place, you've got good stuff that you've picked out uh over time. You're just going to win by buying and holding stocks, so i would not stress out over the short-term fear, that's being sold.

I do think there are long-term ramifications that are coming, but i don't think we have enough of a catalyst to to claim that we have a depression yet uh. I i do think that time will come perhaps in the next decade, but there's there's lots more bull market to be had before that does happen. We just have to go through some correction and perhaps a small recession before that does come to fruition and that's what i've got for this video so guys, i hope, you're all able to find your own cowboy hat so that you can ride along in the wild Wild west with me i'll, be catching you on the next one tomorrow. You know how it goes: much love late taps in peace;.