You ever looked at uh at a chart. You think to yourself, god, dang dude. I just can't get this right. What a bad day things are just not going good uh.

Well, it can't be as bad as netflix. Netflix has to be one of the most. Not this got ta be one of the most gnarly sell-offs i mean when i saw this. I was like that's just just naughty disgusting dude.

Let me tell you uh streaming, it's a great great platform. Huh! It's really going to kill movies, guys welcome back to troy straight, it's great to be here. Like 75, please don't say the result 2.3 glad to be back with another video. This is take two first, one uh did not have audio, so i'm gon na try to speed through this and save as much time as possible, but we got a lot to talk about as you can see by the title uh.

This is a critical level or something along those lines. I don't know what th, what the i'm gon na call it quite yet, but along those lines, uh there's there's a pretty key point: the turning point for the broad market that i think is going to be applicable to amc into every single stock, and it is Uh not a coincidence that it lines up with earnings season, we're gon na see how earnings season actually goes, but here's the agenda for the day netflix. I want to start off with netflix, because i tweeted this out once upon a time, and i find this to be pretty funny. I haven't heard the streaming services will kill.

Theaters argument in a while today seems like a good day to bring up again how goofy that argument is yeah today, it does seem like a good day to bring up again how goofy that argument is. I've died on this hill for a long time as with every single ape, so this isn't really a hot take. This is just a a normal take uh, but i want to talk about that amc. I'm going to talk about the 786.

It's the fibonacci retracement level! So we bounced off of today uh. I want to talk about the significance of this and what i think could happen here in the future and then earnings i want to slightly touch on as uh. I do think this is going to be important to discuss and adam aaron did give us a preclude in terms of what we can expect coming into that spy. Critical mass point: spy's got a big turnaround point either the upper the downside that we were about to test that we did test today, uh and it's going to determine, i think, a good couple days of uh price action in the direction of the market here in The future uh earnings want to talk about that.

There's a potential for earnings being priced in as the market has been doing the 50 to 75 basis. Point hikes and to play of the day for tomorrow is going to be the spy which i am going to walk you guys through down here. This is what i'm personally going to do, i'm not telling you to buy them. That's something to sell, i'm giving you what i would look for for a setup and then from there.

It is up to you in terms of what you would like to do. So, let's start off with netflix uh. If you look up netflix news, it's going to be the top of the page on bing uh. I don't use google because google that's why everyone says trey.

How can you use bing look at this. Look how clean this is. Huh. Look it up! Look at how clean look how clean this is.

This is this: is money chef's kiss, but netflix had a loss in subscribers uh coming into uh their their their obviously bad bad news today, netflix is bleeding subscribers for the first time in over a decade and is expecting to lose another 2 million uh subscribers in Coming time uh - and i bring this up because everyone said that that amc, it would never succeed that the movie theater franchise would just die because of streaming and adam aaron said this before he said this. In an interview with me, uh dvds were supposed to kill streaming, the cassette tapes were supposed to kill streaming, blu-ray was supposed to kill streaming, lots of things were supposed to kill streaming and now, including streaming, but none of them quite do, and i find it. You know important to say: netflix has not done well for a significant period of time. Now you look back the last high that it set was actually four days after disney plus had released uh their their streaming service right.

It came out on november 12th and then, four days later, they hit 700.99 uh, and you might be thinking to yourself. Well, disney must be doing very well. It's a stream service right wrong november 12th for disney fun fact was actually the highest. The price has been uh.

Basically, since you look back to november 12th of 2021, this is literally hasn't gone, higher hasn't gone higher. The price has not been as high as the day that that streaming service came out. Streaming is not crushing it streaming is not gon na kill, movie theaters streaming is just streaming, and if people continue to unsubscribe, there's no company, that's immune from death, any any company can die, and i would assure you i put my money on it. A streaming service will die before movies will.

I will bet you that i believe that down to my ball sack uh, so i just wanted to say that sounds important to note. Uh, give you guys a little bit of confidence in the long term potential of what what is to come with uh with this company amc 786. I got this written out because the 786 on amc is a very critical level uh that i've talked about a lot. The 786, which is the the 78.6 retracement on a fibonacci uh, is has been amy's favorite thing, it's her favorite thing other than smacking down popcorn and milk duds uh at the good old movie theater, and what we have here is a double up on seven, eight Sixes, you take the small scale right here: the 786 bounced off of this today, 1740..

You look at the large scale 1772 on this big run-up bounced off of this, and i remember saying this in yesterday's video. I i said uh this sell-off today, not sweating, because i know it's going to bounce off the 786. It did it did and i don't think that it's quite done yet the level that i'm watching for is 21 26 cents, which is the 61.8 from there. That's a flat top, you can see it lines up with a touch.

Point touch. Point touch. Point touch point touch point uh, i'm watching for that. I think that it could very easily test that out uh and look pretty squared away and pretty decent.

The only thing that makes me a little bit sweaty is, if you look at the 15 minute, this is a bear case scenario. This is the worst case scenario. Is it could come back down and test out the 786 on this mini run up right here? If you look at this part is if it forms up a head and shoulders and it retraces down to form up a second shoulder and sells off into the open. I think it would bounce at 1740 again uh for that bear case scenario.

That's what i'm personally watching for. I think that that's a pretty strong point. There is a rising wedge on the chart right now. You look at that upside that that rising uh support line rising resistance line.

Maybe this is the only retracement you get it's very possible. I don't know i couldn't tell you with absolute certainty, but what i can say is as long as the spy does not shoot itself. Amc looks very good right now it doesn't look bad. This looks like a solid opportunity for a reversal earnings.

Let me briefly discuss this adam marin on the last earnings call did say he expected earnings uh coming up, which is on may 5th by the way i'm going to draw this out. So you guys can know. Uh may 5th is the day of earnings as of right now, unless it has changed, he did say he expects it to be poor. He expects it to not be as good as the last one so expect that we know that when amc has good earnings, the stock price goes down, which makes great sense in this market right uh.

So if it has bad earnings, you can expect the same thing. However, if it does go up, if stock price goes up, we we expect earnings to miss to be poor uh coming into the the next earnings report. For for amc right. What would make it go up to me.

Is business ventures adam aaron, giving you an update on things that he's discussed or announcing that he is going to begin a new business venture, maybe he's announcing how much money is made on hymc and that gives confidence to outside looking investors? Maybe he talks about the business credit card and the progress they've made on that. Maybe he talks about uh, the commercializing of their popcorn selling, that across different retail locations across the united states, brick and mortar locations. Maybe he talks about the cryptocurrency that they have. They have kind of alluded to and talked about in the past.

You know amc having their own crypto coin, not the scam coin, uh that that whoever created that that that piece of uh made the real deal right. If you announced as a business venture, i think that will make stock price go up if there's enough weight behind it. Uh. If you were to weight that you know likelihood, i think that earnings uh likely you got maybe like a 20 30 chance.

I'd say: like 20 30 stock price goes up after earnings. Uh 70 70 to 80 is down at least initial pricing initial. This is much different than the macroscopic. The large term - i i would just say, expect, expect some from the people who push the stock price down market makers, hedge funds, banks, whoever it may be right uh.

I would expect this to be an opportunity for them to do it and that's why i want to bring it up now, so that you're not surprised when may 5th does come. If that is a situation that that plays out. So that's what i got to say about amy. I i think a lot's riding on the spy right now.

I think, as long as the spy continues to be green amc will follow suit and that's why i say that we're at a critical mass point, because the spy right now is testing out a very critical level. If you look at this on the hourly chart, what you're going to notice is that it's testing out this falling resistance line, touch point here, touch point, touch point and a touch point uh and these they've been respected very well any time it's touched this and it Bounces bounces bounces bounces, bounces, bounces, bounces and now that it broke it, it came with a very large move until it tapped right here on this one. This falling resistance line. There's two scenarios at play here right and i've got a a drawn out chart right here.

I'm going to redraw this because this is my second time running through it, but nonetheless uh in a bold case scenario, you want to see this breakthrough uh and it will come with a large move. I think you will see this thing. Have a one and a half percent to two percent green day and come up to the next critical level of resistance which, if i look at the actual chart right now, is about 454 bucks. You could see a 10 move if we do break that.

Full case scenario, however, the bear case scenario is very possible, netflix very bad day, disney very bad day uh. If earnings are getting priced in or even worse off, earnings are bad uh. I think you will see downside pressure on the spy and it would probably come back down to re-test down here by uh this falling level of now support, which is previously resistant, uh things that i'm watching. For you know, i've talked about this briefly before i just want to bring it up uh now, so that it is on the radar is the earnings pricing.

I talked about this at my discord today. If you'd like to join there's a link in the description box down below uh, i am going to be decently active in there from now on, as i am wrapping up my military career uh. But there was a theory that the market is pricing in early earnings ahead of time, and what would that look like? What does that mean? It means that big buyers, big investors out there, are anticipating that earnings will be good, so they're pricing it in early they're buying an anticipation of good earnings to come. This is something the market's done a lot lately and they they give rumors of a 50 basis.

Point hike, so that's the price of the market swings around very crazy and up like right uh. They say that inflation's bad well, they priced that in they priced in inflation being bad. This is something that's been happening, a lot over the last uh month month and a half, and it is possible here with earnings. So this is what i think this is my theory.

If earnings are stagnant, right, they're, decent, but they're, not a beat they're not. I can blow it out of the water sort of earning situation. Uh. I think stock price goes down if earnings miss, i think that the market will go down drastically, as you saw with netflix and spy in the after hours.

Now, if earnings are beat, i'm bullish uh, but i think, if they're anything other than a beat, the market will not react to it. Well, because i do think it is very possible that earnings are being priced in right now, as you watch the move today. I think that was pricing in an anticipation of good earnings to come. It's possible 50 to 75 basis, point hike.

This has already been priced for quite a while uh and the fed came out today and actually talked about the 75 basis, point hike and they said it's not on the radar don't buy it. Uh atlanta fed president and pharmacy member raphael bostic on tuesday reiterated the importance of getting raised to neutral territory expeditiously through the cautioned the 75 basis point hike is not on the radar. I don't believe it i'm going to tell you why the fed said that they would never do a 50 basis, point hike, uh and the fed flipped. So quick, they flip-flop way too much them saying that they're not gon na do a 75 basis.

Point hike now is the exact same thing as them saying that inflation was transitory a year ago i mean it. Doesn't it doesn't make sense right they flip too much there's. You can't have any confidence in what these guys say. I i one million percent believe this is on the radar, because they're already talking about a 50 basis, point hike to me.

The fed is looking back at inflation over the last year and they're thinking. Ah, i guess it was as bad as we thought it wasn't. Transitory uh, maybe this isn't russia's fault. Maybe maybe this is our fault.

Maybe we got ta. Maybe we got ta do something about this. Maybe maybe we're just stupid and uh. They finally are reacting and what they're doing is is slamming on the brakes uh to an oncoming bus.

You know uh who's, gon na win in that situation, a car or a bus. Well, the car is gon na get totaled and the bus right now is inflation. It's dealing with the economy, it's dealing with squeezing the entire market, as the fed has bought a ton of stock over the last two years and finally weaning themselves off the nipple of retail investors. It's that's what they're doing uh and right now they're slamming the brakes, and i don't think that they're going to avoid slamming the brakes.

Even if i disagree, i think that's just what they're going to do so, i think a 75 basis. Point hike will probably continue to get priced in think short term that week two weeks, it's possible to see downside, i'm not super confident in earnings. I think if anything you'll see pops and fades time will tell. Unless - and this is the bold case scenario, this is what i have this is why i say this is a critical spot.

This is why it's important unless the spy breaks above this level, wyckoff theory composite man, believe it or don't believe it. I think it's legit. I think it's some some real stuff. I think, if you see a break above this level and it moves you're gon na see lots of strength across the market in earnings, but it's depending on really a break over that.

I think a break over. This is gon na give you a large large large move, one one and a half two percent move on the spy on the broad market uh, and that's really what i'm watching for so critical levels there. That brings me into the play of the day and obviously the last thing: spy. Green, amc, green! That's that's! What i think is really riding here is uh the spy continuing on the the the recovery that it's attempting to make uh play of the day is gon na be the spy.

I think this is an easy, easy setup, long call long put scenario. If this, then that right same as usual long call scenario is a break above this fall by a retest. Don't have anything more to say it's that simple right break above this falling level of resistance on an hourly time frame, followed by a retest of it, and it bounced back up. It may just break over it and if it does, i would miss that opportunity.

Personally. That's me because i like to get the confirmation i like to get the retest, and sometimes that means i miss opportunities and i'm okay with that. Ultimately, you have to come up with whatever you want to do, but i'm looking for that retest over that level. Uh - and i would take an entry for a long call based on that a put - would be the opposite.

It would be this breakdown followed by a retest of this level as resistance instead of support, followed by a rejection down to here. Remember how i pointed out earlier these levels are very well respected. At ping, pong's back and forth, channel trading ping, pong ping, pong ping, pong ping pong ping pong ping right rejects off this. I think you can see a move all the way down to 4 37, regardless, i think tomorrow's gon na be a volatile day.

I think the rest of the week is gon na be volatile, uh on low volume and uh. I think that regardless this level is very critical and that's why it's the title of the video, because if it is green, it's gon na carry a lot of of air in the sales of amc and every other stock in the market and small, mid cap companies And this theory that i've talked about for a long time uh. This is a pivotal moment. I mean if it actually breaks this year.

You could see a decent sized move up for everything and that's what i'm watching for so uh. If this, then that right, this would be a long put scenario in red long call scenario in white, which is a buy to open cell to close for both uh entries, stop loss, runners exit. Those are the four things that i look for with any sort of trade. Where am i going to enter? What is my stop loss for me, it's 10 to 15 percent.

Where do i start taking profits? 25. 50. 75 is what my runner takes are for me, and where do i plan on getting a full exit? My full exit plan for a put would be here in an ideal scenario. Long call i'm looking for this level right here.

I think it's possible. I really do and that's really what i've got for this video. That's everything that i want to discuss here today. I'm gon na wrap it up by saying you know: amc uh great day it was up seven and some percent change, maybe even eight - might have been eight percent.

Oh six point: eight seven: i was close uh, almost seven percent uh, i'm bull. I i think, as long as the spy doesn't shoot itself right as long as the spot continues to move in the right direction. The market continues to rally uh. That amc is gon na follow through.

This is a really picture-perfect. 786 bounce things look good. It all. Really rides to me on that uh that critical level that the spy is on right now, you can see that amc retraced in the after hours because of spy retrace in the after hours.

They move together, there's the same algorithms that are buying these. These two tickers uh and that's what i'm watching for so that's what i've got. I appreciate you all tuning in a bunch of crazy meatballs catch on the next one, much lovely taps and peace.