's our favorite day cpi. We're either or we're not here's my my cat whoa titan's sleeping guys i'm gonna trace trades today we're be talking about cpi data which is coming out tomorrow uh. The title is as such because it is going to impact especially those who are trading. If you are not trading based on cpi data uh not as important.

But it will impact the market. It will impact prices and it will impact you at least in the short term. So give you an idea and a check mark in terms of where we are for inflation. And where we are in the recession.

Where we are in the bear market. So i'm going to purposely. I'm going to five survivors. My financial vice president salt uh.

We're gonna go over a couple different things cpi data. We're gonna go over expectation sort of what you can expect going into tomorrow. And how that will affect the market. We'll talk about the spy.

As it is in a bearish scenario right now and we'll talk about amc. Because it is actually in a bullish scenario. And i think people will probably be interested in how it will move based on cpi data and based on the spy. So let's not waste any time.

Let's just get right into it cpi data comes out tomorrow. July 13th and it is supposed to drop at 8. 30. Pm am actually eastern time which is 7 30 central uh when that happens.

It is going to have an impact on the market. I would imagine it's gonna be followed by a lot of volume as it typically is now one thing to keep in the back of your mind is the previous couple of cpi's have had downwards pressure on the stock right. I remember seeing this as we looked at joshua's tweet joshua's lucid trades on twitter in case. You're curious.

I'm actually going to pull them up in case. You'd like to see it uh. I thought it was a pretty interesting little chart that he'd thrown together and we'll show you this. So.

The previous couple cpi's right two days prior to cpi data. Release. One day prior. You witnessed the sell off based on this falling resistance level right.

Now we're two days prior. Uh. Two days prior. Here today was a pretty decently red day for the spy uh.

We ended up closing down point eight eight percent down a little more in the after hours you may see the same follow through based on trend based on pattern. If you were to look at this overall pattern. You can see it as such uh rejecting off that exact same line as we saw back here right. But nonetheless.

We'll prepare you for either scenario you can think of this in terms of uncertainty and certainty. The uncertainty right now. Which is the way the market sort of cycles it cycles back and forth from certainty to uncertainty. And then back and forth and back and forth and back and forth it'll continue to do that until the market ceases to exist.

The uncertainty is what will happen with inflation right you can think of that as sort of the uncertainty present uh. What inflation and the best way that i can kind of put this is the market is like you're preparing for the bedroom right you're you're getting to down and freaky for the first time you don't know what to expect so you kind of form this image of what to expect in your brain. And you prepare yourself for that you have like uh. What am.

I going to do how's this going to go and then you get in the bedroom and the actual certainty starts to happen. It's happening there and then maybe your uncertainty you know you expected this to happen maybe you're right. But maybe you're also wrong well market works. The same way they will price in uh essentially.

What they think will happen uh. They will either sell or they will buy based on their expectation for. Inflation the current expectation is 88. So don't think of the inflation data coming out as good or bad right.

It is bad to have inflation. But that's already priced in things get priced in ahead of time. What you should think of as good or bad is does it beat or does it miss if we get at 88. Inflation.

It's gonna look drastically different than if it's seven or if it's 10 or if it's. 12 the. Certainty which is to be determined at 8 30 am eastern time tomorrow will basically be the hook line and sinker. There was a leak that came out today uh.

This was tweeted out by gurgavin he found this to be uh likely false it could be real. But it might not be real right we're gonna pop it up just in case you want to see it 102 percent uh year over year inflation was the leak now this could be legitimate. We won't know until tomorrow uh. But if that's the case.

I think spy will die. It will go down drastically uh. So just want to throw this out there for a heads up in. Case this is a legitimate.

Leak if it's 102. Percent mark. It's not going to look good all right. But here are the other scenarios by the off chance that that's not the case.

If this then that is the name of the game. If we have less than eight point five to eight point six percent year over year inflation. Then i think stocks will go up at least immediately if it's about equal to eight point eight. I think you'll get an immediate pump followed by a dump to follow if it's greater than eight point eight percent then i think spy will die.

I think you will watch the entirety of the market basically get rug pulled beneath its feet uh and you will you'll be watching some paint. It's gonna be brutal right not totally ideal uh that's the case and currently the spy. Which is sort of the next topic of discussion is in a tough spot. There's a support line that this is formed since back on 17 june of 2022.

Four days before my birthday in case. You're curious. I'm 25. Now uh.

It's formed as a rising support line tap tap tap tap tap connect to dots today. It broke that line with a pretty heavy amount of volume. And what i would anticipate to be uh pricing in expectation for cpi tomorrow. Gotta ask that a lot in a stream.

Today. Why do you think the spy is dying. I think it was two reasons. Number one broke this support line number two price in for cpi.

It's the uncertainty aspect. Right big boys big money are trying to take a guess. A stab at what inflation will be in there pricing in aka selling in anticipation of bad cpi numbers. So they get ahead of the ball right.

But tomorrow is going to determine that is this going to be a false breakdown or is this going to be uh a true breakdown right. We don't know that yet. But i can guarantee you if cpi data comes out and beats expectation right. We actually have good numbers uh spy will rally.

If not this is a perfect setup. A perfect storm for a big move down. And i think that big move down would coincide pretty well with this line right here. I think you would watch.

It basically come all the way back down about 365 dollars in the period of a couple of days. Very similar to what we witnessed back here during the last cpi data release when we basically got a flash crash right uh sad to say but i think that is what would happen essentially if we get really bad. Inflation especially if it's 102 spy will collapse everything that i've stated will have no meaning uh. My idea of a spy rally will basically be that it rallied to 393 and not quite the 400 uh if inflation is that bad if that leak is legitimate.

It will not be good uh. That's where spy is that but contrary to the spy. Amc and gamestop are in really. Good looking technical shoes.

Gamestop. Even slightly more. So than amc gamestop is 20. Ish.

Dollars away. 25. Will say from what i would consider to be the holy grail trend line that will allow for a really nasty rip to the upside uh this dates. All the way back to january of 2021 when it ripped all the way up to about 500 bucks.

You got to tap here you got to tap in june. You got another tap in november. And late november you got another one in march and now it's coming up to test it again in well. What is present day it did just recently break this trend line rejected when the spy died uh.

If the spy doesn't die amc and gamestop amc being in very similar shoes. Albeit. There's a larger gap to this trend line. It's got a comparatively larger overall percentage gain than it needs to meet and we'll just draw that out so you can see it if it was to meet this right now.

It'd have to go up 81 percent in comparison to gamestop. Which would only have to go up let's uh just draw this out it would only have to go up approximately 20 right much bigger difference. It's very close overall to that falling trend line you got that it looks good. But if the spy dies.

What you're hoping for what i think would happen are these two scenarios let me just point these out to you real quick uh amc. It is a bullish scenario. We do look good the chart is beautiful it's very healthy we have good volume followed through on every breakout. That it's had so far it's broken this falling trend line this falling trend line uh momentum level from a couple days prior.

Really. What's between this and uh 22 bucks to me is about 1662. But spy die amc will go back down. I think it'll break this rising support line and the best case scenario is that it finds support in a couple different areas.

This is one in particular that i find to be of interest 14. And some change rejects off that and if the. Spy really collapses you're probably looking at 1250. The good news would be this right in that scenario.

If the spy dies well. I don't think amc will be relatively as bad as the spy die now percentage wise. It will be right. But in terms of weight that it carries and technical setup in chart.

Uh amz has actually shown that it has more relative strength. It has formed this uptrend since way back in may albeit it has been bearish right much better so than the spy. The spy has not had that same luck if you come back to may in comparison uh. It's still setting lower lows.

So in comparison. I think amc is going to show more relative strength. I think it's more primed for a move to the upside. It's just really waiting for some broad market strength and if we get that coming with cpi data tomorrow you will look uh at a really really nice catalyst for a rip that would be beautiful good cpi equals.

I think amc goes nuts. I think it tests 1662. I think it breaks 1662. If it does break it'll it'll tap 17 18.

19. And you'll come pretty close up that psychological barrier at 20 where there are a lot of out the money calls uh waiting to hopefully go in the money. Hopefully that encapsulates everything the it could go either way right. If that leak is legitimate you're in for some pain.

If it's not if we get a beat. You're looking for some fun uh wait until then you can try and guess. If you'd like i'm not gonna try to guess if this than that that's the game that i play and that's what i've got for this video. So catch you guys all tomorrow.

Appreciate you if you wanna come check out. Twitch i'll be live on twitchtv for slash anti juicer tonight between seven and eight eastern. I'd love to see you guys there until the next one much lovely taps peace.