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You guys uh, you guys gon na start, calling me trey biden, because i'm never on time. Ah, that made me chuckle. I saw that in the chat a couple times guys, how are we doing welcome back to the the traders? Podcast trace trades live stream. It's great to see.
Y'All drop a couple gurus in the chat uh for for the day that we are having here today, amc right on the day about 3.14, the market bouncing back with lots and lots of strength and i'd like to discuss sort of uh. My thesis here, which is what you just saw on the title of your screen, uh and that's talking from more of i would say, medium perspective, medium time frame, not so much a a small scale day to day, but more so uh a couple months. I i think mid-term uh, my thesis i it has some pretty decent likes to it. So uh we'll walk, we'll walk through that here in a little bit, i'm gon na wait for some people to roll in because i'd rather have uh the full scope of everybody before we dive into what i'd like to talk about great to see you all baby, It's great to see you zz how you doing auntie good to see you lucas for korea.
We missed you too man, tau, sean pew, pew kent, deanna, tay, cody, timothy man, the spy looking like a a meme stock huh. The way this thing slingshots around back and forth, back and forth, back and forth back and forth holy piss holy freaking piss. It's absolutely gnarly! It's crazy to watch this thing, uh trade, the way that it has over the uh the past couple weeks, absolutely nuts gentry good to see. You see villain good, to see you nick good to see you too hope you're.
Well, once we get uh most people in here we'll get started. I do owe you guys a wheel spin though i do yo. I do owe you guys a wheel spin, so we are gon na knock that out here, uh really quick uh before more people roll in. So with that being said, let's uh! Let's get this thing spun out: real, quick, ah wow, all right! That's kind of goofy yeah we'll play we'll play fast later today, miguel aye, you guys, you guys want me to do that now: where's, the other cat.
Unfortunately, oscar franklin passed away. He uh he had something called uh fip check this out. Fip right here. You can't treat it.
We gave him some experimental stuff to see if it would work, but it's called feline infectious parent tinnitus, it's uh, it's basically a cat, coven and uh. It's really rare. Only one percent of cats really ever get it, but most do not survive. It's like a 99 death rate, so uh franklin, unfortunately passed away.
That's the way that it goes. I'm not gon na be playing chess right now. Do it do it now, all right here we go here. We go.
No, not titan, franklin, titan's, just fine man. What subway is this? They don't pick up the phone, what subway called in sick today. Thank you for calling subway on 67th. This is dana.
How hi? How are you doing today we're doing great good, hey uh? My name is tremayne, i'm just calling in because i'm not gon na be able to make it into work today, um at the one on 67 yeah. I don't think we have anyone on schedule sure this is the one on 67th and gore yeah. That's that's the one uh! That's that's! That's where i go. Okay, i'll pass on the message, all right, yeah. I appreciate that uh tremaine. You want me to spell that out, for you uh sure, all right. It's uh tango romeo echo mike alpha yankee november echo tremaine uh yeah. I i can't come in because i'm going into another another job interview with arby's, okay, all right! Thank you very much for that.
You're welcome! All right! You have a blessed day. You too, all right. Oh man, all right. Here's the thing, though, right, here's the thing: there's i've never met another tremaine and my maybe one, maybe one other tremaine in my life right there's no way, there's anybody that actually works their names for maine and she she stated as well.
She said, are you sure you work at this location, so that was pretty good. That was pretty good. Oh man, fun, stuff, fun, stuff, go arby's, go harvey's, arby's does slap, though huh it does slap all right. So we've got a decent amount of people in here.
Right now, uh, what i'd like to discuss is my thesis behind shorts across small and mid caps in the market. I had once made a video uh discussing sort of uh. What i think is going to happen. I want to pull this up on my youtube channel.
Just so i can show you guys, really quick, i'm not going to watch it if you'd like to watch it. You can in your free time that's absolutely chill uh, but it's it's got some girth to it. She's. Definitely thick thick with lots of information so uh.
It would take some time to truly walk through this uh in the way that i think it would take believe that it's this one, if you don't believe in market corruption, this will convince you uh this one discussed sort of my thesis across small and mid-cap companies. This is back when i had way less hair than i have now. Thank god, it's growing back, but uh. My thesis is very simple.
I think that this year, you're going to witness a lot of small and mid-cap companies go through uh short squeezes. My reasoning to you is very simple: if you watch this video, the one that i just showed, you called, if you don't believe in market corruption, this will convince you. It goes over short interest data across a variety of different small and mid-cap companies across the stock market. A lot of these, which are retail favorites right uh, but, to put it in the easiest context that i can i like to show people this iwm.
This is the russell 2000. This is the smaller mid cap etf, comprised of about 2 000 different companies. Hence the name: it's currently sitting at a short interest of about 38.16 estimated according to finra, which is reported every two weeks. We do currently have 39.16 percent.
Absolutely locked in from the previous reporting date right so with that being said, that is extremely high to have 39 short interest in an etf which is supposed to be where 401kers roth iras uh grand mommers put their cash and have to do no thinking in the Least, bit right: this is more of a growth etf than a value. Etf. May i add, that's obvious right: it's not a blue chip. These companies haven't already made it quote unquote, but this is an etf nonetheless, which should be very minimal risk. Well, 38. Short interest of free float is incredibly high and you can only assume that is because a lot of small mid cap companies are shorted to kingdom, come right, lots of short interest across small mid cap companies. Now this brings me back to amc, which is obviously uh for the time being a mid cap company uh. I personally believe that amc is going to be a part of this, but it will not just be amc.
I don't think it'll just be game. Stop either. I think it's gon na be a very similar situation to what we saw in january uh. Hence, but, albeit uh a different type of squeeze, i don't think you're gon na see it be a two to three day uh squeeze again where everything's just going absolutely nuts.
They shut down everything uh and it's just like bam. You're done. I think it's gon na be a matter of uh growth stocks such as perhaps amc or maybe microvision if they actually get bought out by some form of an electric vehicle company for the lidar tech. Perhaps bbig perhaps iron c, perhaps mulen, perhaps uh prague, perhaps roblox i mean at this point roblox is.
I would consider it to be uh, not quite a small, mid cap but uh you, you get my point here. I think small mid cap companies are gon na. Go through a a very large move and here's my reasoning as to why right, i'm gon na bring you guys over to my handy-dandy microsoft whiteboard. So this is this is what my thought process is, and this is what i personally believe is going to happen across the market right.
A lot of people were surprised by when uh the spy reversed. You know if you watched my live streams. The last couple days uh, i actually talked about it. I said i think that once that russian uh, the news comes out, you can go back.
I think it's actually in a video now a clip uh. I said once once russia actually initiates an attack on ukraine that will price in and the market will start to reverse right. I said that for one simple, exact reason, and it's because, regardless of whether it's good news or it's bad news, the market loves certainty right. So why did this happen in the first place? Well, if the market likes certainty, certainty equals bulls, that has to mean then that uncertainty equals bears.
So what uncertainties did we have in the market in the first place right? Well, for a good long minute, we had the fed and inflation and how they would handle inflation, and it seems that the market, at the very least, has accepted the fed's current plan to combat inflation and tapering and tightening of the economy. Then you have the russia conflict. This is still ever-changing right. This is why i say on a mid-term time scale uh this thesis over here in which shorts uh will start covering across small mid cap companies is based on the certainties of the market. Uh covering that's spelled absolutely wrong, but this is a midterm thesis right, midterm couple months, one to three months: that's what i would say, russia for the time being the uncertainty was. Will russia actually go to war with ukraine right now? This is obviously a devastating situation. The geneva convention being broken, uh, really really sad, really messed up man, i mean this whole thing is brutal, i would say fun's in there too. Martin absolutely yeah, uh, fun, microvision, prague, bbig, amc, gamestop, uh iron, there's a whole lot of different names.
A lot of different uh retail favorite stocks, but the uncertainty was: will this actually happen now that these two uncertainties are off the table? What did you see happen right? Well, no. Uncertainty in the market means there's certainty in the market, at least to some extent, and that equals bullish activity. The spy has bounced from 410 dollars to a high of 437 in a matter of two days, a a drastic change in points i mean. That's a 27 point swing, that's incredible! That's absolutely nuts, and that comes from the certainty of a bullish, uh.
The certainty of the market right, it creates bulls. So what happens when there's no uncertainty in the market anymore right? Well, these bears won't really have much of a leg to stand on. These bears have been thriving in the conditions of uncertainty. They look for.
The fear fear comes from uh the unknown right. If we don't know, what's going to be happening with the fed, we don't know what's going to be happening with russia. A short position makes sense for a bear to establish at least to some extent, to the extent that we see across small mid-cap companies. I think that's a very debatable topic, to say the least.
However, for the time being, there's no uncertainties in the market. Now i do want to poke a hole in my theory right. This is one thing that i think is an ever-changing solution. You know a situation.
Is russia right, russia? I do not think this is my personal opinion and i can't get much deeper into this. I can't comment uh per se on the the full scope of the situation, but i will say i don't think russia will likely stop with ukraine. I think russia will likely respond to sanctions the sanctions from the united states. This could create some form of an uncertainty right so which could create a new box and which that's why i said mid-term midterm one to three months.
I personally believe you're gon na see shorts start getting real sweaty right. Uh sanctions could be something in which you see uh. Some uncertainties start to reappear in the market. The second situation as if russia declares conflict or war with another country war conflict with another country. If that happens, you can bet your ass. Another uncertainty will certainly take place within the market, but these are tangibles right. There's there's a likelihood of this and an unlikelihood of this. I personally find it to be more likely, which is why i'm giving myself this one to three month target and not necessarily a one to two day target right.
I think the entire market is feeling uh, perhaps over confidence. I would. I would value this to be over confidence. The the level of absolute rampaging growth and recovery that you've seen out of the spy and, typically when you have overconfidence or over-hyped fear, you see a bounce back in either direction.
So uh we'll see if there's any news that comes out this weekend, but nonetheless i think that once these uncertainties are gone, if there's no more uncertainty regarding russia, uh you're gon na start seeing shorts begin to cover slowly over time across a lot of small and Mid-Cap companies and a way that you can track this is through iwm every day. I check the short interest and not just uh, not just amc. I also check it in iwm, because this is the small mid cap etf, and this is tracking sort of the sentiment across all these different small and mid cap names so that you can kind of see what's happening in the broad scope in terms of confidence and Fear uh for bears because bears, do make their money off of uncertainty and, if there's no uncertainty that they don't have any legs to stand on so uh, that's personally what i believe to be the case. This is my thesis.
My thesis is very simple in terms of why i think shorts should be sweaty right now. It's because, for the time being, until some other major conflict or issue within our economic system or the world begins they're running out of juice, they're running out of juice. To stand on across small mid cap companies and the spy iwm getting the moves that they have granted today is not as much of a bounce, but you saw lots and lots of names yesterday absolutely tearing off of uh that recovery from the uh, the russia, ukraine Situation ending so uh, that's my thesis. You know you can poke some holes in it if you'd like to, but i personally believe that that uh you're gon na see small, mid caps really start to recover uh and, i think, perhaps over recovered, which could lead to some squeezes across some names.
And i personally believe, obviously that there are some names that'll stand out from the rest. I think that uh, you know, gamestop and amc are probably the two retail favorites in which you're gon na see some pretty monstrous moves uh, but it's not certainly limited to just these two. I think there will be other quote: sympathy movers, uh that go alongside the short covering rally that i personally believe will take place amongst these growth stocks as time goes on a growth stock compared to a value stock right uh, a growth stock is more speculative uh. It's it's. You know, that's certainly uh a lot of small mid cap companies, which is why they're small mid cap companies, growth equals speculative and i would classify value stocks as already established. These are established businesses that you don't really worry about uh their business plan coming to fruition versus a growth stock, which obviously has more upside because it's not already established uh, there's more risk, inherently and they're, usually small and mid-cap companies. So i think growth stocks will have some nice moves. I really do.
I personally believe you know i'm not going to try and even remotely time this down to the day. I think there are lots of people that think they can. I do not think that i can. I don't think that i can tell you down to the exact day when the spy is going to to to have its that's.
Oh, this could be the absolute bottom. I think it is. I think it is. I think it is who the knows man i mean.
What it comes down to is, is uh the world's situation in terms of conflict and war in the federal reserve within our own united states right. Are they going to be able to manage inflation and rate hikes and uh tapering off of assets, the way that we the way that we want them to? I don't know you know, but for the time being, uh i've seen enough boxes start to get checked that i personally believe a lot of the uncertainties that shorts have stood on right. This is what they thrive on have begun to vanish. So that's my thesis.
That's what i think i personally believe that, within the next couple of months, you are going to start to see shorts begin to cover positions, and if i was a short right now in this market, i would be pretty sweaty seeing the the the certainty that is Starting to establish itself within the markets now i have one last thing that i'd like to say uh before i continue on right, uh and it's regarding trading. Now i've talked about this many many many many times before, but in the current volatility of the market, which you can easily track with what i like to call the fear index uh the vix right, you can track uh sort of the the volatility of the market Watching the vix - and you can look at this on an hourly timeframe, you're looking at a daily time frame, i would track this anytime that the vix is high. There is a really high amount of risk on taking large size and positions first off. If you are a trader, uh and second off and overnighting a trade, this is much different than a core holding a core position, an investment but a trade uh.
Please be careful, be careful in these current market conditions. I'd say until the vix really starts to calm down, uh there's a lot of inherent risk in overnighting or taking very large size in a trade. I i got a couple of messages from uh from people uh over twitter and text. You know some some close friends who who took some trades with way too big of size and overnighted, some things that maybe they shouldn't have uh, and just i just don't want you guys to put yourself in that situation right. That's these! These are avoidable uh spots to be in, and i want the best for everybody. So uh just be careful, as always. You guys ultimately pull the trigger. I'm not here to tell you what to buy.
I'm not here to tell you what to sell. I'm just a guy who looks at charts and uh and drinks kraken from time to time and uh. You know, that's that's this. That's just my personal opinion.
So uh do what you got to do at the end of the day, but uh that's kind of what i've got for so far. Uh, don't worry about it sanji. It is what it is right. I can't control it.
What i can take pride in with franklin right, even though he did pass away, and unfortunately it didn't make me sad - i won't pretend it didn't uh is that i gave him a good life. You know if he was destined to pass away if he was if he had fip, and there was nothing else that uh that we could do about that other than give him a shot, give him a fighting chance. I know that he lived a good life. You know we treated franklin, we had, he had lots of toys, he played with him every day.
Uh, he ate good food. He slept lots uh. He was always comfortable, you know, and even into even into passing away. You know we we gave him the best shot that we could.
So it is what it is man. It is what it is i just woke up. Can you start over uh mike, i'm sure there'll be a video up on this after i, after i stop live streaming? I took that took a good 10 15 minutes. That was a that was a minute, but, to sum it up, uh very simply.
Uncertainty is what uh bears sit on right. Uncertainty is what fuels bears, because uncertainty causes uh, uh bearish activity right, that's what caused the spider do. What it did is, what is the fed going to do? What is russia going to do? Uh and uncertainty within the markets for the time being, unless russia decides to to do some other crazy uh, has has definitely died down drastically, which you can see within the vix the volatility index or what i like to call the fear index right uh. So that's! That's my opinion.
I personally believe, as you can see by the title, shorts are starting to get a little bit sweaty across a lot of small mid cap companies. This is not limited to a singular stock such as amc. I think it's just small mid cap companies in general, which obviously will affect amc. Now there are other hedge funds, institutions, uh and i'm sure a market maker, perhaps citadel.
Who knows right. These are all allegations. We can only assume based on what we know that target amc. I believe that without a shadow of a doubt right, but a lot of times, amc gets tied into the the the wrap down and the beat down of many many many other names. I mean we really have to take a broad scope and a broad look at what happens across a lot of retail favorite names, a lot of uh small and mid-cap growth stocks such as ader like this one pisses me off almost more than amc. I don't even have a position in hater. Just looking at this makes me furious. It makes me mad, it should make you mad.
It really. Should i mean you look at this. You look at the ceo who has proven that his stock was manipulated. He's proven that it was targeted, he's proven that retail investors had their money stolen by something they literally couldn't control.
You know what do you, what do you make of that? What do you make of that? I, i personally believe there's a lot to make of it. It's the fact that small and mid-cap companies get for no other reason than just to take money from you and give it to some fat cats. Who's already got billions of dollars. You know it's absolutely crazy.
Yeah is amc going green before end of day uh. Who knows man we'll find out right now? I'm watching this uh excuse me, i'm watching this supply zone this red box, it's trying very hard to fight its way out of this red box, uh this supply zone, which could get you up to actually some nice green territory. I think if it can, if it can crack over that supply box, uh supply zone box, your first watch in 1755, this would sort of act as a momentum level at 17.55, in which case you could see it tickle the pickle of 18 bucks, which would certainly Be green on the day uh! It's it's definitely possible. I wouldn't be surprised by it.
It definitely has some momentum uh. This is actually a pretty nice. Looking george w right get a big fat nasty, filthy disgusting. You know what it is.
George yeah double bottom: that's nice! That's uh! That's the george! W t it's kind of demented, looking uh, but it is writing an upside level of support. It has double bottoms and it's actually favoring us a slight upside here, uh working its way back up to that supply box. So even if not today, you know perhaps in the after hours, i guess time will tell uh, but it looks good. It looks good.
This is definitely a nice uh. Nice move that uh that that our girl, amy is attempting to make here uh intraday, which brings me back to probably what we should talk about next uh, the actual technical analysis on amc, and i get it. There's people out here who are gon na. Tell me trey technical analysis doesn't matter, and i've attempted to to talk about why i believe ta is, is useful in some way shape or form, and i i recognize that some people have their own beliefs and that's okay, you hold those beliefs.
This is my belief. I'm not here to convince you. I personally believe that technical analysis is useful, for example, this falling wedge pattern right. I talked about this falling wedge pattern on amc a couple days prior, i said i think that you're going to see a break out of this falling wedge. This is typically a sign of reversal, got the reversal right, uh, false breakdown right here with that russia, ukraine, news and then a break out of the falling wedge uh with that being said, i think you could see some follow-through on this, we'll wait and see right. The levels to watch for personally for myself are once again 1786 we're developing a lot of consolidation in this area, a lot of strength, 13, 40, uh, 14s, 13 and some change right. It's bouncing around back and forth in a little channel here, starting to find some legs to stand on in comparison to some of the sideways trading and downwards pressure that we've seen before uh on our girl, uh amy. So with this, with this strength that we've found in that 15 to 18 ish dollar range, i'm actually pretty satisfied to see that now we have seen it before right.
Let's take our. Let's take our confirmation bias out the window. We have seen that consolidation period here. We've seen consolidation here and now, we've seen consolidation here, so consolidation doesn't necessarily mean it's going to reverse.
However, i find it much more likely in this current situation because of two main factors. I personally believe that amc is at or beneath fundamental value personally uh. If you were to look at it in terms of forward earnings, the future potential of the company in the same way that people would look at other companies right a lot of companies, trade on forward earnings or what they could be worth down, the road right uh Do fundamentals matter for a squeeze play? No, not necessarily, but it does matter in terms of risk management right uh, if, if your risk for a company at fundamental value is, let's just say 15 to 20 bucks uh, you know that currently starting at 17, that manages your risk assessment. You can look at this and say i personally don't believe this is going to drop much lower and if it does that's a steal of a deal right.
So with that being said, uh this this 13 to 14 bottom that we bounced off of a couple times. It seems to be pretty solid. What you're looking for is 17.86 first acting as uh sort of a momentum level to get us back up to some prior uh spots, in which we have seen some rejection over and over and over and over, and that appears to be at about here right. This box has been quite the heifer to uh to get ourselves out of, and that happens to be between 19 and 90 cents, and about 20 and 31 cents.
Why has that been the case right? Why? Why? Why why? Why well a method in which market makers can use for amc and for lots and lots and lots and lots of other stocks to pin price down? I can almost guarantee you it's the same level again just looking at the options chain. Right now is max. Payne theory options pinning now check this out. If you look at the 20 strike right now, you can see that there's 20 600 total open interest on those 20 contracts right. 20. 000. Open interest, that's the greatest amount of open interest from 17 bucks. All the way to 20..
Well, if you were to come over here and look up uh max payne amc and you're gon na click on this website, it'll tell you what the max payne for amc is a highest call open interest strike 20 current max payne, which is a a basically a Hash, a price which market makers do not want the price to go above is 17 bucks. What will they do if the pro the price approach is 17? Is they'll? Try and pin it back down because why it creates the most pain for these options. Market makers, if you come over here to the put open interest, all of these puts get uh hedged for essentially, and that's that's money that market makers have to pay out uh and the call side of things when calls run in the money. That's also open interest that uh market makers have to pay out so 17 bucks.
If we crack over 17 and we hold it into the close of the day - it's actually a great win on the day for amc and a big kick in the dong for market makers, because that is max payne theory. So what brings me back to sort of that level that i was mentioning before i make another amc hype: video, hey, i'm gon na check that out media dre thanks man uh. That brings me back to this 20 bucks is where we've seen a lot of open interest on the stock repeatedly repeatedly repeatedly repeatedly and those have been getting absolutely pinned to uh the coffin pinned to the cross. It's been gnarly right any time a tap tap, tappity, tap, tap taps right.
There, uh market makers pin it because of max payne theory. So what that would look like drawn out? Very simply. Is this right? I'm gon na draw the chart for you, hypothetically speaking, if this is 20 bucks right, we've rejected there a couple different times now and the price starts coming up right and options. Market makers see this is say.
For example, there's 30 000 total open interest on the 20 calls for a specific weekday right. It starts tapping 20 bucks. What will they do? They'll hedge, on hedge, hedge, on hedge, buy, sell, buy, sell to keep prices underneath that 20 level because it's worth them sacrificing a penny or two here and there to not have to pay up premiums for that 20 running in the money, and that is max. Payne theory that actually happens right, and i believe that to be the case here with uh this specific hash at 19 and some change all the way up to 20 low, because so many people, so many contracts have been traded in that 20 range that have gotten Cooked and every time they do get cooked, that's liquidity that gets pissed away into the abyss right and then, following down, you typically get some form of a sell-off until it ultimately comes up to retest it. So uh, that's what we're looking at. You know. It's a form of price suppression, at least to some extent, that market makers have, in their toolbox the whole day uh to hold the stock beneath a specific price level. There is some form of price discovery, but uh osmania amc certainly certainly certainly certainly shows that there is a lack of price discovery and a flaw in price discovery.
You know options uh max payne theory, which is that options pinning in which i talked about uh. This is one form of a lack of price discovery max payne theory. I'm just gon na actually highlight this in a good way. So we can see exactly what i'm talking about here: uh price discovery or price suppression.
We should say max payne theory very obvious one. This legitimately happens. I can guarantee, with a shadow of a doubt, right, otc uh trading right. This is the internalization of orders uh.
This is essentially when an order gets routed to citadel or vertu via payment for order flow. This also uh hurts and suppresses price discovery. Internal uh, internalization internalization, i also thought of as wholesaling right. Both of these things hurt price discovery in a very, very significant way and keep in the back of your mind.
Otc trading is different than dark pool trading. They often get lumped together right uh. I absolutely know what people mean when they talk about dark pool training. So at the end of the day it is a form of semantics.
But if you were to talk to some fat cat on wall street about dark pool training, they would they would uh. They wouldn't understand they would be looking for otc because that's ultimately what it is otc, or the internalization and wholesaling of specific transactions back and forth between market maker to broker and then broker to retail, so uh. These are two probably the biggest, i would say the biggest ways right off the bat in which you see a lot of price suppression, and i think max payne theory is perhaps the biggest of the two of them uh, because so much money gets thrown into options. I mean, if you think, about the amount of liquidity behind those 20 000 contracts that could get pissed away because of options pinning or max payne theory uh.
What do you see right, lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of capital man? I mean right now they're trading, for a penny, but if you bought these, let's just look at uh, perhaps march 4th right: 47 cents. Let's go ahead two weeks, let's say that you bought them two weeks ahead of time. You look at march 18th. How much do these beasts cost buck? 13.
113 times. 20. 000 contracts is a lot of money. Lots a lot a lot, a lot of money, man, it uh it it's a great way for market makers to not only collect premium, but take away your liquidity.
Take away your capital right absolutely happens, and i think that's probably the biggest tool that they presently have to manipulate stock price in the way that they do man. My lips are so chapped right now it got colder in oklahoma. The air is pretty dry here and uh. I can't breathe through my nose my nose very well because i have a deviated septum. I can only breathe out of one nostril, so i breathe out of my mouth and uh. My lips are: oh man, oh geez, rick gnarly. So with that being said, uh that is sort of my thesis behind uh. You know the technical analysis behind amc.
For the time being, i think you are going to see some form of uh, perhaps and move back up for the bolt case bear case. It rejects off of the 1786 and you could see it come back down and re-test 1374 potentially uh. You could. I think first, the major level i'm actually going to delete these lines, because i think these are less significant, i'm looking at it in more of a macro perspective, i think the more significant level before that 1374 is going to be 1576..
1576 uh. You do have a lot of rejection back and forth back and forth back and forth here. So that's that area to me is uh, where it would likely reject to if it does not crack over 18 bucks here have i tried carnivore uh. I basically eat carnivore.
At this point i mean pretty much every meal i have has some form of meat in it for sure. Let me pick that off there we go yeah deviated. Septums are annoying for sure for sure for sure how you doing wildfire it's good to see you yeah, i probably should get some vaseline. I had a a little to a chapstick, but something that titan does every freaking day is.
If i have something on my desk on the counter on my nightstand i'll knock it down, and sometimes it just disappears forever. So i have no idea where that chapstick went titan. One million percent knocked that thing down to the into the freaking shadow realm because it has disappeared, it is gone, it is gone, gone, gone gone. I have no idea where it went and i probably will not find it.
Lamp is more than just a sex icon. I agree with you wholeheartedly man. I i have absolutely no idea why some people i will will make my mistress into into something like that, but it is what it is. It is what it is the afc is.
Uh is certainly looking pretty good right. Now, though, you know you come over this and you look at the momentum level by the way it's cranking on that pretty dang hard right now. It looks like it wants to give this a fair shake up to that 18 mark about 11 cents, away 10 cents away from being green on the day. This line right here - 1787, you would definitely be green uh and if it actually holds over that momentum level, you could one thousand percent, see this being uh green on the day that george w a big nat fat, nasty, sick son of a son of a gun.
That's uh, that's playing out pretty decently here with that neckline breaking that supply zone, breakout for our girl, amy's trading at about 17.58 cents or so uh on the day here, and the volume following through on these uh, this move back up has been pretty solid. One tool that is useful for ta is to watch uh volume when volume picks up as price picks up. That is actually a sign that you are getting either a a true break up or a or b a true breakdown, and when volume follows through on this move, that's actually a good sign that you could see it follow through uh i'd, say you you're more likely To see this try to continue up to a red to green reversal. Ah, for the time being there, i got that piece of skin on my lip. That was annoying me check behind the dryer for that chapstick milly you're, probably not wrong. That's what's hilarious, titan loves getting him himself stuck behind the dryer and he'll hop back there and he'll just sit back there. He'll sit behind the dryer for like 15 minutes, just doing nothing staring at the wall. I don't know licking himself doing whatever the space is.
Like this i mean it's really small, there's not a lot of room for him back there and then 15 20 minutes later he'll start meowing for me to come, get him. He can get himself out by the way i've seen him do it, but he doesn't want to do it. He wants me to get him out from back there uh, but if i don't he'll, do it himself if he mouse long enough he'll get himself out. How long are you growing that mustache i'll grow for a little, while still i don't have a reason to shave.
Yet once uh once my leave's over and i have to go back to work, uh i'll i'll - have to trim it up, because this definitely can't touch my lip for the army. This is the longest my mustache has been in quite a while. I mean this is uh. This thing's freaking raunchy hold up.
Let me just let me just expand myself here. I can't even see my lip anymore. I like it. I like it not bad, not bad baby, not bad! That cracks me up.
That's some good stuff! Ah, hey there, you go matthew good for you, i'll babysit titan for you, if you uh, if you live in the oklahoma area, you know uh, we could. We could maybe make something happen if i'm ever away, but i i basically live here. I i've got my roommate. We we uh, one of us are usually always in the apartment, so uh we're chilling old west bartender, it's a vibe, i am getting medically discharged a yami, but the process of getting medically discharged is uh is, is pretty long uh.
Basically, what i've been told with my my medical discharge for the time being uh, i was told this about a month ago. They said in four to six weeks. You should expect an email or a phone call from us. Basically stating here are your exit orders.
I haven't gotten them yet, but uh i should soon and once i get those exit orders, it's basically over. It's basically done from that point on i i should be uh. I should be out of the military and the reasoning that that is happening. I've seen that people argue on twitter, i've seen people say it uh. You know you can have your own opinion at the end of the day. I'm not here to change your mind, but uh i didn't have a choice. You know the military, wouldn't let me stay in. You can't be in the military, with uh an eye, that's completely blind and a hole in your heart.
I can't do pt uh and my branch of the military being what it is. Uh the most deployed branch in the military - i i can't deploy, which is problematic, so uh they're, getting me out for that. I can't do anything about it. I do want to say this, though, regarding russia and ukraine.
The way that the situation is escalating right, i'm not going to take a political stance on this at all. It's a humanistic stance right if you know people in the military, if you have friends family uh, that you know who could be in a combat arms deployable, ready unit, send them a message just say: hi just say hi to him, because if things escalate in a Manner in which your friends and family have to have to deploy uh, you might never get to say hi to them again. You know it's important to to tell people you love them. So take the time to do that.
That's why i was in a pretty bad mental space yesterday for transparency. You know i i was. I was an rotc back in college. That's how i commissioned into the military, uh and that process.
For me, i met some really great people. You know my class, my graduating class was 25 of us uh and out of those 25, i think 70 percent went active duty. Most of us went active duty. You know there is some pretty cool people in uh in my class and a lot of them went.
You know infantry armor ada this and that a lot of combat arms branches. I know a lot of people who, if, if push came to shove, would end up in that conflict so take time to say the say, hi and that you appreciate those uh those people in your life who may be in those situations. Oh speak of the devil. Titan got himself stuck behind the dryer.
What a goofy chicken yeah, no, no joke! Man, ukrainians are some brave people. There's it's it's uh! Existentialism is really something else. You know existentialism uh, a situation in which you have no choice but live or die. It's it's incredible.
What what people are able to achieve? You know and those sorts of pressures and those sorts of situations where you have no other choice, so close 11 cents she wants. It looks a bit like a bear trap to be quite honest, a bounce off of this uh. This momentum, level to me would be pretty bullish. It has tapped it if it taps it and it comes back up.
That's a good sign which it does appear to be trying to do for the time being, hey hunter. Will your brothers are my thoughts man, your brothers are my thoughts, uh i'll, be thinking about him and you tonight all right. You stay well. You stay well, hey step, titan, mind. If i help you out of the dryer step cat, what are you doing in the dryer buddy you goofy step cat you? What are you doing back there? We are one cent away from the red to green move: baby 16 1767 that was just knocking on the door. The hairs of your nipples just staring enough is right. There 1768 coming up for that red to green on the george w double bottom reversal. To hopefully come up and tap tap tap tap that 18 mark here for our girl, amy, that is uh.
That is a nice move back. That's that's! A lot of strength coming out of uh coming out of amc, the spy coming up for perhaps an intraday high coming into the close of the day. You do have a flat top here, uh. If you were looking at the spy for the time being, it has tested this level, one two three four different times now at about 4, 30, 7, 40 or so a break over that.
I would not be surprised by another uh one to two point: move, which is a dollar uh. When you hear people say a point, that's what they mean. They do mean a dollar move on the on the spy and it's green and she's green sixth sense baby. Not too shabby that's it that'll do the trick.
That'll do the trick. My nip nips. That's funny, that's funny stuff. That is not too shabby.
17.69. 69. 69 cents baby come on. You already know.
We love a good joke. We love a good joke. 1790 equals green week. That would be one crazy freaking week, man, what a crazy, crazy, crazy week, we're 22 cents away from being green on the week.
That week was a little bit red red about four percent or so 22 percent green 1.93 green uh. We should end the month pretty uh decently green 10 yeah. That's a nice month february was a good month for the stock for sure volatile as hell. Let me tell you crazy, crazy volatility, but green nonetheless green nonetheless, lamp is here.
Lamp is chilling. Lamp is chilling. Uh, i think i'd be able to show you this hold on. Let me just pull up my obs so that i can actually make sure that i get it on there uh.
But here's lamp lamp is good. That's dwayne! Having a good time, we got ta move this a little bit the other way there we go nice that'll. Do i feel, like my camera? Quality has been better lately. Maybe it's just because it's colder here, i don't know it's been colder in oklahoma and i think perhaps my camera's been overheating, so the the quality has been a little goof but uh that definitely helped wisconsin reporting jt wisco.
It's good to see you i signed here yesterday. It's good to see you, man, uh foot locker. I haven't even looked at the ortex data for amc, yet today i've looked at iwm, but not quite amc here live on stream, uh, afc's short interest, currently sitting at 21.2 percent, a point four percent on the day, so shorts still adding borrowed change of about a Million total shares utilization still maxed costs. To borrow about relatively the same here.
Look at security lending volume, no huge upticks like you saw right here, uh, which is to be expected. Considering that utilization is maxed out for the time being, threshold list nope fair to delivers. None really to report on in this situation and then on loan average days is uh slightly declining, but still on an uptrend right. This is uh. I would still consider this to be an uptrend for uh. The current short interest on uh or the current days to cover on amc uh days to cover, however, is also a good metric to pay attention to. So i'm gon na pull that up days to cover on a three month. Time frame is sitting at about 2.13 uh base cover.
Oh that's on loan short interest. 2.13. So uh definitely a little more difficult for shorts to exit positions in a timely manner. Uh, for the time being, you can see that there's currently an estimated 108 million total shares shorted into amc and for the past weeks and weeks and weeks we really don't see much more volume than we saw 100 million this day uh.
But that's that's an asterisk right. We don't typically see that much volume on on our girl, amy told most of the time 30 million 40 million shares uh. Typically, what you see, meaning that, if all the volume on the date with shorts, covering positions uh, they would be able to get out in a handful of days, three or four at that current pace which does represent and reflect that days to cover ratio uh on Our girls, so that is a metric that is uh worth looking into just basically showing that uh that it is when the time comes when shorts do cover, and i do believe it to happen the next one to three months, as i mentioned earlier, there will be A video out uh sort of recapping what i talked about here from the live stream uh, but i do believe it is gon na be difficult for shorts to exit positions in a timely manner for the time being, twitch.tv streaming tonight, trey, senpai, absolutely mac and bees. Uh tonight's fast night, phasmophobia i'll, be on twitch sometime between seven and eight pm central standard time.
I think on the schedule it says eight, but sometimes i hop on early amc is showing at about 1762 right now, uh appearing to have perhaps a false breakout at this uh this level right here at about uh, 17.65 or so, which was uh one of the Previous day's highs yesterday's high uh just before uh you saw it crack the crack over that you can also see it rejected off of that. Actually, the the intraday high yesterday we're actually just going to move this level a hair, so you can see that right at the yesterday's intraday high did reject uh that is acting as perhaps a secondary momentum level and a break over. Then i think you do see a good shot at 18 bucks today, we'll see what happens we'll see what happens eldon ring. Maybe i should play that.
Maybe i should i'll i'll i'll pull it in twitch i'll pull it because i i was watching ludwig play. It actually, i think, ludwig's still playing it. He uh he has a live stream, ripping right now saying uh, i won't stop live streaming until uh i beat eldon ring and he's still going he's he's still uh still not beating it. This is uh dark souls-esque. This actually kind of reminds me of uh dark souls as well. As i don't know if anyone played sekido but sekito has some pretty similar vibes to this as well uh. I think those are actually made by the same creators. I can't remember off the top of my head, but i'm pretty sure sekito was made by the guys who made dark souls.
So you know when they make a game man, it's it's pretty much the same stuff, all the time, but man eldon ring looks fire fire. It looks so good looks so so good yeah. We should talk about that. Actually, we should talk about that uh.
Let's bring up the sec uh piece that was brought out today. If any interesting price action happens by the way you guys, let me know uh you guys absolutely let me know, and i will i will check that out - uh, but here's this lots of uh differing opinions regarding the sec statement here today on this topic. We're proposing changes to increase transparency around short selling for investors and regulators alike, proposing changes being the key words here, meaning that it's not quite yet approved. This will provide the public and market participants with more visibility into the behavior of large short sellers uh.
So this is actually a pretty good hash that could potentially happen if it does end up getting passed now we do know uh. We have that one goofy chicken within the sec, who does not apparently like uh transparency within the markets uh they turned down some some previous uh proposed regulations uh. But if this does get passed, that could be pretty cool, so you can click on this and it kind of walks you through sort of that immediate release and what this potentially would look like uh. It would make aggregate data about large short positions available to the public for individual equity securities, which is actually pretty pretty clutch right to see.
The data about large short positions made uh in some form of a timely manner is actually a good thing. Will it happen? I don't know yet you know this is something that's been proposed. Who knows how long they've actually been talking about this uh? But i, like i said before i'm a matter of i want to see the the actual outcome right. I can get excited about this all day long, but i think a lot of people have gotten kicked in the nuts before by uh, hoping right, hoping that things get passed and i'm just gon na wait to see if this actually does get passed but uh.
Essentially, you know this this piece being probably my biggest takeaway aggregate data about large short positions available to the public for individual equity securities. That would uh. That would be pretty huge. That's a big step in the right direction towards being able to see uh some form of a position from a short being taken. Now, here's a caveat, though right uh, here's a caveat: will this actually prevent the act of perhaps naked short selling a stock right? We have seen it with previous stocks before that uh naked short positions have been taken. I personally believe there have been naked shorts taken out on amc, one that has been proven to have that is ader ader has been proven to have naked short positions out. The ceo has come out publicly and spoken on it right that is, that is factual. Will this sort of regulation prevent that sort of thing right? This will provide the public and market participants with more visibility to the behavior of large short sellers.
The raw data report of the commission on a new form show would help us to better oversee the markets, understand the role short selling may play and market events. That's my big interest right. Will it stop manipulation? Will it stop uh? Perhaps the rate in which you see fraudulent activity take place within some big firms and market makers and institutions and banks in the way that we've seen over the past year and before retail really stepped in i'm sure, the previous couple of years and decades and decades. Because people just keep doing things until they're told that they can't you know uh once you tell people, they can't do something.
That's when that's when uh they start running the problems. They start throwing a temper tantrum, as we have seen with uh lots of lots of big names over the previous uh couple months here with with amc and gamestop and a couple different other names as well. So uh, that's that's sort of the situation there. I'd be happy to see it, i think most people would as well.
I think most people would gamestop by the way uh down four point. Seven two percent on the day, uh not quite the same chart as amc, but it does look like it could have found a bottom here right. It's riding an upside level of support, uh flat top breakouts sitting higher low higher low higher low higher low uh. Until, ultimately, i think it's gon na take a crack at breaking 128 and coming back up to uh, hopefully that mid 140s uh range 145, 146, 144 somewhere in that ballpark is where, in the short midterm, you were watching for gamestop to come back and crack at Uh, as we do get some momentum back into uh, some of these names that uh we'd like to follow yeah.
No, i feel you wishing until until enforcement. This is the problem right. This is the problem with rules the current structure. Maybe this is actually a better way that the sec could go about this, i'm actually glad you brought this up uh issue with the absolute clutch statement here, the issue that i have with current uh current market conditions right.
The way that the system is built is sure, you're gon na state all the rules in the world right. Let's just let's just talk about uh rules right you're, gon na make it so that shorts have to report shorts, have to report. You can make it so that uh payment for order flow gets banned right. You could, even you could even say, hey you're, not supposed to naked short sell, which is by the way illegal unless you have absolute necessity to do so naked short selling ban. But here's the problem, all these lack one thing: punishment, there's no punishment, there's absolutely no punishment for these guys to partake in those sort of things. In fact, the way that i would describe it is pay to play.
Hey Trey
Too funny. Go Trey for your sense of humor.
Sorry about your cat
Moms spaghetti ๐
So whenโs the moass bro ? ๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ
Lol great title pmsl….thought these guys were sweaty a few months back ๐คฃ ๐ ๐ ๐
Love your videos Trey, but they're always so long!!!! Thank you for updates though
Thanks@
love you Trey u made me 50k at one point but lost almost all of it holding but I'm still very grateful.
I lost my sweet kitty to FIP last month ๐ฟ i even gave her basically Remidisver black market treatment called GS-441524 shots 2/day that does have a 90% cure rate ๐ฟ
Hey Man, I like watching the channel, been here since the battle of 8.01 but I wish you would stop dropping the F-Bomb so much. My kids always walk by and hear it and I have to drop the volume so low now.
Sorry for your loss.
Diamond handing nearly a year. Still green! Haha.