This is a piece of garbage and this is a really expensive piece of garbage, and today we have to talk about this really expensive piece of garbage guys welcome back to trades trades, it's great to be here great to have you like the private office by samurai. Fireflies finance release, please don't say the greatest salt uh today we're going to be talking about the fed bomb seed coming up tomorrow, because that is going to be a critical day. It's going to be very important. We're gon na set the tone for the upcoming month, especially if the fed is very aggressive and very hawkish.

With a 75 basis. Point hike i've seen some rumors going around twitter. Some people think that the 75 basis point hike has kind of been leaked, but at the very least that does seem to be the expectation. So i do want to lay out the groundwork for what i personally believe would mean.

You're gon na market bounce tomorrow uh - and we will go over that here today, but before we get into that, i am going to be live on twitch, probably by the time i'm not even probably, just by the time this video comes out. I will be live on twitch and i'm gon na be spending about an hour going over the market. Any questions that you have any questions about, amc, any questions about stocks. I need questions about technical analysis, any questions about whatever right.

It's gon na be market. Talk on twitch, so, if you want to be there, be there it'd be great to have you, i'm also going to tweet that out uh. So with that being said, let's get into the garbage. We got to look at it.

Well, obviously, uh. This is the spy which is reflecting greatly upon sort of amc for the time being, and if i show you amc, what you saw today was uh a little bit of a bounce right. If you look at this on the one minute, it was a pretty nice. Looking uh nice looking move, you got to move from about 1476 up to a high of 1611.

and some people have asked by the way trey. Why do the charts look different? Well, one i'm not using weeble right now. I am using a trading view and two. This is a log chart.

What log does uh is take a different value system to sort of line things up, and i find that it has a more true sort of ability to map out technical lines. It helps me see things that i wouldn't have seen before. With that being said, uh looking at the spy, you can see that we're at kind of a critical point. This is a critical mass point.

You look at this on the one hour and what you'll see is. It is attempting to break over a pretty large technical level, which was this downtrend. You can see that uh, it did break above this and it's now trying to bounce off of it uh and that's why i've got sort of two different ways mapped out that this uh pharmacy meeting could go so with that being said, it happens tomorrow. Let's bring this up just so you can see it we're gon na keep this short uh pharmacy minutes in case you don't know, is the fed's opportunity to talk to you about various different topics.

Uh, particularly inflation and rate hikes they're gon na be able to talk to you about how bad inflation is and what their corresponding action is expected to be for rate hikes. They have been talking since yesterday. This meeting uh or i should say today uh. This is a two day meeting between may third and fourth, where they are determining what the best course of action is to combat inflation, whether it be a 50 basis, point hike or a 75 basis, point hike, but that is truly uh.

What is at question here? What are they going to do? Well at first it was a 50 basis, point hike but, as we know, uh these guys like to flip-flop more than the pancakes that i've never cooked up, since i only ever eat hot dogs in subway. But despite that, uh there's a lot of sort of ifs in the equation. Here, a lot of people are speculating on. What's actually getting priced in.

If you were to ask me uh, i personally believe that they have priced in between 50 and 75 basis. Point hikes. I don't think 75 has gone completely under the radar. Let me tell you why i think a 75 basis.

Point hike has gotten priced in to some degree because it was hinted at even if the fed said it was off the table. They said guys. Look we're not going to do this two days after they they mentioned it for the first time they saw the peak fear they're like, oh god, we put the fear of god into these peons. We got ta.

Take this back, but that's not necessarily off the table. I think people realize that, so i think that has gotten slightly priced thin. There are two scenarios to me where you can see a very solid bounce coming out of pharmacy minutes where, where the fed would actually help the stock market get a little bit of a recovery, let me walk you through sort of what that would look like. In my eyes, right so check this out, i've got whiteboard pulled up right here.

You know me and my whiteboard uh, and this is sort of the two situations that i think would end up being good for the market. Ah, my cat switched my whack on board. God, damn you dale, both dale and titan, just love being on my my computer these days. Let me switch this back shouldn't.

Take too long there we go all right scenario, one basis, point hike of 50.: they raise it by 50. I think this is bullish. They raise it by 50. I think that the market will rally they raise it by 75..

I think it's sideways sideways or down what i mean by sideways is not a lack of volatility. I mean it'll probably do something like this whiplash whiplash whiplash and end up around sort of the same area that it was before or it is going to go down and then that would that would basically hint at the fact that the market has not been pricing. In the 75 basis, point hike now what is the significance behind this? Well, i've talked about this before you guys already know, uh sort of my stance. I have come out as a short-term bear in the market and i have said guys.

I think that the market's got some more pain in it and uh i've sort of laid out the groundworks for what i believe uh that the cause is to be in this video 2008 is happening again but worse and to me, if they don't raise rates here. If they just keep flip-flopping, flip-flop and flip-flopping, the market decides to oh no everything's fine. Now because they they they put, they agree to what we're gon na do so the pain is gone. Well, not necessarily to me uh that'd be a gut punch reaction.

You get the initial push-up and then a couple days later, the downwards pressure would still be there uh. Nonetheless, this is going to set the tone for how much pain is to come in the future uh because of specifically inflation. Now inflation is at 40-year highs. We already know all these things and for those in the in the audience, because i know the majority of my my subscribers are here for amc right.

How does this affect amc, and probably the best thing that i can uh, i can say for small mids - is spy good equals amc. Good right. Look at today now, despite being green, doesn't always inherently mean that amc is going to be green right, spy being red. Doesn't always inherently mean at the exact same time that amc is going to be right, but they aren't very highly correlated.

It's easy to sort of look and i've seen people say it uh, it's easy to look and say well. Spy was red today, but amc was. Was green or spy was green today, but amc was red. It's a correlation right.

If you look at the correlation of the two stocks, uh, that's really where things track and if spy can get a bounce here and a rally that is going to make a difference for small mid-cap companies, which includes amc, which includes gamestop, which includes uh mullen, which Includes bbig, which includes all these different names that retail have come to love where all these uh, all these communities have kind of gathered around right, but that's dependent on the fed and the reason that i made the analogy that i did at the beginning of the Video showing you this piece of garbage is because the fed and politicians in congress and all these people have made decisions above you uh, on what is going to be policy and how much money is going to be printed and how they're going to handle inflation is Garbage and it has caused the garbage that you're watching take place in the stock market, there's really no other better way. To put it. This is like an upside down. George w.

This is a george l uh, it's the chart. The chart just doesn't look good, and this comes down to the fed uh. I personally believe, if i had to take a stab at it, i think they're probably going to go with 50 just because they haven't talked enough about 75, but i don't think it's off the table. I think most people realize that it's not off the table and it very easily could take place the month after.

However, if they are going to do it, i think that they would try to front load it. As jerome powell has clearly stated uh, we would prefer to front load our rate hike so that we can combat inflation and adjust, if necessary, down the road uh. They did say right. Rate hikes are likely going to equal recession that a recession is unavoidable.

There have been green market sessions during recessions uh. Let's try to say that five times fast green market session research agreement sessions with the research agreement sessions in the recession - damn i was surprised. I got that uh and then i started on damn. I'm actually surprised.

I got that but anywho uh it would affect the stock market in a negative way. It would, i don't know how long it's going to take. This is obviously something we have to pay attention to in the short term. This is going to be critical, so keep your eye on that uh.

If you're a traitor. I would be very very mindful of the spy and anything correlated with the spy uh going into tomorrow, as we are waiting very patiently for the decision to come out. I don't know why i just got rid of that. I'm gon na pull up fed schedule, quick again uh as you're waiting for a decision to come out because that decision does come out from what i'm reading here on the website.

Uh at 4, 15 p.m. Selected interest rates, you should be expecting that press conference wraps up at uh two o'clock press conference coming out two o'clock: that's where you're gon na find out you know, you're gon na get the bees knees there and see where things go. If we get a positive bounce, a positive uh sort of move off of these uh the rate hikes, i think, it'll look something like this you'll probably track. This white line, which i've got drawn up over here spy will probably go up this to me.

It would be in the neighborhood of a 50 basis, point hike if it's 75. I think you're gon na get this a rejection sell-off back down to about here to this line, which case it'll probably try to come back up and re-test, and if it's still bearish reject from there. We got to take it a date of time. That's kind of what i've got mapped out.

These are the two options that i've got uh. I've had this mapped out for a couple of days now this is tracking uh, pretty cleanly on on some trends and uh you're, just waiting to see which direction it wants to go now. If it wants to continue down if it wants to get that relief. Bounce up and that falls completely on the fed and that's what i've got for this video so uh guys.

I hope that you have uh better trash in your home than this. This piece of paper called the fed, because these guys, i don't even know if you can read this - oh yeah, you can. These guys are garbage reminder when this video is out. I will be live on twitch.

So please stop in uh, we'll be talking stocks for a little while there and then uh doing some other stuff later tonight for fun so catch on the next one appreciate you much lovely taps peace.