You know you know i can't help, but laugh when i think about this stock uh, because uh the stock market right now, the bear market is so dog everything's doing so bad uh and you hear about hedges against inflation. Hedges against the bear market, like bitcoin's, been attacked for a long time and gold and silver and uh precious metals and uh all these different things. But we have red box happening right now and i can't help but laugh at this, because red box is basically a dead business model. They're they're, a dvd rental company that has has gone from a buck 60 to a high of uh about 14 bucks.

Dead companies are the best hedge against the inflation of the bear market. I guess guys a little bit back to trading trades. We freaking talk faster. Don't skip class, i could pivot by saying i'm not a fighter advisor expert, so they're gon na say the grain of salt.

Let's get into it today, as you can see by the title of the video i'd like to talk about uh red box, red box has been nutty for some time now. It's gone absolutely crazy and i'd like to talk about sort of uh. The data behind this and uh and what's sort of happening because it's actually in a pretty interesting spot when, when push comes to shove, redbox is a dvd rental movie. Uh dvd movie rental company, whatever you'd like to say, sort of like the opposite of uh of amc and movie theaters, so to speak, uh, that's not a business model, that's sort of been failing.

It hasn't been doing great. There's those uh those by the name by the way red boxes, that'll be outside of different brick and mortar locations where you can put in some cash rent to dvd, and you return it back to the red box later well. For some reason streaming seems to have killed this or movie theaters. I don't know it could be.

One of the other could be both but nonetheless, they've been a struggling company and uh have the data to show that uh there's a lot of short sellers that think so as well. If you're gon na look at the short interest, i've looked at this before i've. Looked at it again, uh show it again: you have 226.97 percent corn current short interest of free flow. High costs, borrow 832 percent cost to borrow 100 utilization uh high free flow on loan.

The numbers here in the metrics here are absolutely insane, and what this really is telling me is uh, there's there's a massive amount of short sellers out there who were betting, they would go bankrupt, this company would go bankrupt and now it's got some attention. Some volume. Some eyeballs uh red box is kind of punishing some of these short sellers and these short sellers think thank them think that their their god dang souls uh are providing a beautiful hedge for inflation and for a bear market for the time being uh you can see The short interest line right here - it's this gold trend line ortex estimated range of free float - has gone up continuously for a long time now it's been since november 25th of 2021. uh you've seen it go from one percent really only up.

It's only ever really gone up: 33, 33, 40, 37, 42, 50., and up here you're already at 54, now you're at 148 drop down to 125. 167. to where it is now which is 223 or 226 short interest of free float an exponentially high number with an Exponentially high cost, to borrow, but beyond that, there's more to the story, there's more to what's happening here with redbox that i find to be of interest and uh. It is this ooh, oh, so spooky failing to deliver metric.

If you look at this, a failure to deliver in case you did not know before is when a a market maker essentially owes stock right. It's exactly like. The name sounds like when you fail to deliver on stock uh. You have on your books, something called a failure to deliver which states uh.

I will eventually deliver on x amount of shares that i have not delivered on in the past. I actually pulled this up just because i wanted a fact check or text on it. This is coming directly from the sec's website. They report these uh these numbers every couple weeks right.

This is sort of the early may, the first two weeks of may numbers for red box, uh failure to delivers and what you'll see is uh, it's at 1.30 million, which lines up pretty much square on the nose with uh. What ortex has reported here on that failure to deliver metric at uh 1.3 million total failure to delivers? Well. This is problematic. This is problematic for a stock.

That's a super low float. That's got a very high current sort of interest to free flow 226, because if you were to look at uh sort of the the free float on loan that exists for this stock, you can see uh 12.62 million shares outstanding and 1.95 million uh share free, float. I've also seen different metrics right, so take this with a grain of salt with speculation. I don't, i genuinely don't know which uh which free float on loan is the the correct one.

This is what ortex reports. Nonetheless, the fair deliver metrics are, must buy shares. They provide buying pressure, they are, they are a demand that must be delivered upon uh and when it is delivered upon, you typically see a nice move up now. This is from uh beginning may first week of may to mid.

May the 13th of may is the the last day uh that that we could say uh. We saw data for this sort of thing, so there is a probability in the possibility that some of these shares have been delivered on uh, which is why you've seen sort of this huge move up uh. But you can see that the short interest continues to climb. Nonetheless - and this is a metric that is of course, estimated and of course uh you got ta have you know, weigh it out both ways, because it is an estimation, which is why you have the confidence interval so to speak, uh, but nonetheless, there's very obviously uh A narrative here, there's very obviously, some shorts that are going to be underwater uh.

If this continues to go the way that it has. I want to show you this on loan average days uh. What you're going to find is that the average day that one of these shares has been alone is 34.81 days, uh, which spans back uh to some pretty low numbers. These guys are underwater by, at this point, hundreds and hundreds of percentages and with a float this low.

You can really see some massive damage be done now. I want to say one thing and one thing very clearly: i have no position in red box because it is too low of a float uh. I don't want to dabble with this. I i i would not feel good about it right.

That's just me. That's my personal thing: if you'd like to dabble in it, you do you uh. Secondly, if you're going to buy redbox now right, uh note this and i'm not pressuring you either way, i've got no doc in the fight. You are late and if you are late to the party, that means two things: it means that you have more inherent risk and that you will not make as much money except both of these things.

If you buy red box at 13, instead of buying it uh. Two or a buck, fifty or four or five, because those people are rewarded for having conviction, they're rewarded for being early uh by myself. Personally i'll admit, i didn't think you'd see a move like this. I really did this had a lot of strength and it's acted.

That's the perfect sort of joke uh, the perfect sort of hedge against inflation for a company. That's really been struggling uh with their business model. So it's great to see. I want to pull up the charts and show you sort of what we have working out right now and what you're going to find is uh it's following a pretty distinct pattern: uh and i'd sort of label this as like an expanding megaphone.

So what you've got here is a rising uh resistance line and a rising support line that is sort of just ping-ponging back and forth between both of these lines and right now, it's working. You know working its way up to sort of this top peak uh, and it's just tapped on this fib level. Now i've got this fib level drawn up as well, because if this does hit a new all-time high red box, i think that it's got very similar. Metrics to uh gamestop way back in uh december or november of uh 2020 when it had massive fail to deliver, is a massive short interest.

Look uh, i'm the messenger! I'm looking at that, i'm just looking at things as they're pitched how they look and what you can see here is a massive amount of failure to delivers crazy amount of failure to deliveries. To be frank, with you, 1.3 million for a low flow stock like this, makes a big impact and who knows what they're going to be later could be higher could be lower. But these are things that you can watch over high short interest, high cost to borrow uh and, furthermore, high amounts of option and gamma activity. There is certainly a gamma ramping taking place here and, as that continues to uh sort of ramp up.

I think you can see some real damage being done here so uh it looks, looks pretty crazy. I really think it does and i think the fib level uh could be an inclination, an indication of where this could go. If things went absolutely perfect and uh, it moved like you wouldn't believe now, uh the highest that it's ever been is 27.35, which would be considered the 1.0 fib level. Then you've got the one six one, eight, two, six one, eight three, six one, eight four, two three six: why are these important? Well, i've mentioned this before say it again in case you're new here, uh robots, algorithms institutions, banks, all the big players that manage massive amounts of money, who i guarantee or certainly playing this.

Not all hedge funds are short on this. I guarantee there's some that are long. They determine where things go based on math, based on numbers based on algorithms and algorithms run on fibonacci levels, fibonacci numbers uh, so you can actually get a guess and an estimation on where red box will go. An example of this is amc.

Amc. If you look back in the june run up, you can see that it actually stopped right on the 4236, which is a massive amount of strength. I had had a beautiful, beautiful run up and it you could have predicted that right. I didn't get the time.

I certainly didn't, but hindsight being 2020, you can see that fib levels are pretty important. It actually stopped right square on the nut sack about a dollar higher than that four. Two, three six. So you fast forward red box.

If red box has a move, that's strong! If it, if it can put together some momentum here and by the way, high volume candle closed on uh on friday, followed by this, this candle, this green candle with a small topping tail. This is very strong that does look very strong and to me would include sort of give you a hint that uh continued upside strength but, as i mentioned before, if you're buying now you're late, so accept more risk and except you won't make as much money. That is what you must uh tell yourself and accept if you, if you want to play this and that's a big piece of why i want to talk about this - is risk management. I have a plan, you know, but if things go uh perfect, you know with the numbers we see here - 226 percent of short interest.

Uh failure delivers through the roof. You could see some massive moves. This is something that could really do something pretty damn dirty uh and i wanted to take a time to take the time to discuss it uh, because this is some some wild rehypothecation wild to me fraud. I know that it's legal quote: unquote, you can use failure to delivers, you can use short exempt volume, you can use rehypothecation, you can even make it short, sell to some extent.

The sec won't touch you but uh. This is an example of uh the wrong guys. Getting punished for what they're doing and that to me, i i don't know if this is done. The the rsi is absolutely cooked on this, so it's gon na ebb and flow stocks follow patterns, and you can see that the last time that it had a massive massive ramp up on rsi back here.

It retraced the ways and then it came back up well, if i had to take a stab at it, it's probably going to follow some some similar pattern where it's going to tap up here, probably do a retrace and then, if you're lucky, it comes back up And you continue on with the momentum that you've had, but that's all dependent on the strength of uh of redbox, nonetheless, 200 plus percent short interest. Massive amount of failure to delivers uh good-looking chart. I'm sure there's some people out there making money on this, and i wanted to take the time to discuss it here today, because it's set up nice. This isn't gamestop.

This isn't amc uh! No, no two charts are ever gon na. Do the exact same thing uh, because they're different companies there's different thesis, there's different. This there's different that but uh. I haven't seen anything that looks this this similar to way back when uh, in some time, at least not by the books by the data.

You know uh. This is like set up now now now, when i talk about amc, i say it's not quite ready yet right, it doesn't have the cost. To borrow we need, it doesn't have the pressure, we need the momentum, we need right. That's all about timeliness.

That's about uh, that's about sort of uh, the time that it takes to get to this situation, which is what red box had to do right, went through a period of about three or four months to build up to where it is right now uh and that's What it took took three or four months to get here right, uh and the time looks pretty good. It's it's set up. It looks like i could do something pretty dirty and uh. That's what i got like i said before i don't know the position.

I'm not gon na play it to level float for me. Uh be careful, have a plan manage risk and make some money all right? That's what i got for you catch y'all, later much lovely taps as always, and peace.