What a journey it's been huh about. A year ago, we saw talks about inflation in the state of the economy in a potential recession, and all of our leaders stated things such as uh uh. It couldn't happen. Okay, inflation is transitory, they said uh, inflation could be a good thing.

Then they they went on to state uh inflation's, not really going to uh be our fault. This is more along the lines of war in russia and then we got blamed. You know retail investors and now here we are in the same spot, regardless of blame, regardless of what people say. Uh the world is literally crashing now uh.

I am not so cynical that i believe that things won't recover. You know, i know that things. Will we all know that things will i'd say 99 of us whatever uh, but everything is getting slapped down right now, cryptocurrency bonds, uh stocks, i mean the only thing. That's really waiting is real estate and purchasing of real estate is starting to uh slow down exponentially and i'd like to discuss that here today.

So guys look at the trade trades where we can talk faster, don't skip class like i'm prepared by saying i'm, not a financial advisor expert, so they're gon na save the green salt uh, let's get into it today. These are the things we're gon na talk about. Crypto stocks, inflation, cost of living emergency fed meeting today and hedges uh. The reason i want to talk about this is the majority of uh people that watch me.

I understand. Uh are here for amc stock right uh, it's kind of what i'm known for the amc. Guy, whatever uh, but nonetheless in a bear market. The last point here, the hedge piece of it.

I really want to double down and show you why hedging in a bear market or hedging in a recession is so difficult uh, and it truly is because things just kind of suffer, that's the reality of things. So, let's start off here with cryptocurrency right, one of the most interesting things happening right now, uh honestly, the most sad things happening right now is the halting of withdrawals. Now, if this sounds familiar uh it's because it is back in january of 2021, there was a buy button, takeaway and now you're witnessing basically the opposite. There's a slowdown, attempt taking place on a lot of different cryptocurrency exchanges that are attempting to uh sort of alleviate.

Some liquidity problems, bitcoin plunges below thousand dollars in the crypto meltdown uh claims another casualty, and this is uh in relation to basically the halting of withdrawals of uh cryptocurrency bitcoin, another cryptos plunged monday and two of the world's biggest cryptocurrency platforms, restricted activities that market meltdown Continue to pace the celsius network, which has 1.7 million customers, said that extreme market conditions and forced it to temporarily halt all withdrawals, crypto swaps and transfers between accounts. Why we can only presume, for one reason and one reason: only uh, there's liquidity problems, crypto's getting slapped. The amount of liquidity and the amount of money that it takes to handle these transactions. Apparently these guys don't have access to the celsius network, be one of the big boys here and obviously it's it's making a difference in all of crypto.

If you're, looking at bitcoin right now, uh bitcoin is down 17, which is absolutely freaking disgusting uh. The only real good news here is: there's a little bit of a divergence on the rsi. You can see. The rsi is not quite down to 26 on this.

Uh drop down that we have here, but nonetheless, very ugly, ethereum. I think it was down over over 20. I mean it was pretty gross. Now it's down 24.47 percent uh crypto, going through a meltdown off of essentially this problem.

Was it the chicken or the egg which came first well uh? We can assume that this was a response. That celsius had a response to this uh as as the problem right so does it make things better? No, i i. What do you do? This is a tough situation where the entire market's melting you're trying to damage control. Essentially this comes back to some things.

We're going to talk about later, which is uh the fault of the economy, our leaders, the federal reserve uh, all our politicians and government heads right. They created this problem, and this is showing you hey. Crypto is not immune to a recession. Crypto is not immune to inflation.

Crypto can't really hedge against uh, a bad economy, as we can see here today and now. Hopefully this is a lesson down the road crypto firm celsius, finance halt, withdrawals as bitcoin plummets celsius. Wasn't the only one binance having similar problems, similar response to the meltdown in place here right. Here's a fear index in case you're, curious.

You've got an extreme amount of fear across all of cryptocurrency bitcoin ethereum tether even tethers down, and this is supposed to be pegged to the dollar bnb busd cardano, xrp, solana, dogecoin, nothing is surviving right now i mean you got die, coincidentally. This is honestly ironic that crypto named die is the only thing green right now. Well, literally, everything else dies in front of our eyes. How does that work? Who knows but uh? Nonetheless, this is the response that you're getting and crypto is only the beginning right, uh crypto's, not the only thing going through through the fear and through the crash right now, stocks also doing the same thing.

Spy right now is down. It was nearly down three percent. Now, down about 2.75 on a little bit of relief, bounce uh, but touching some pretty critical levels here. I've talked about this for some time the 382, which is 379.94 uh.

It's testing this right now and it's trying to determine whether it like to bounce up and maybe get some relief or if it wants to come down to uh this 349 dollar mark, which is uh the 0.5. Now it hadn't opened weeks ago. I talked about how i believe it's going to tap down on this 3 and 2, come up to the 236 and back down to three and two decide whether one wants to continue to lower lows. Well, here we are uh.

It's trying to decide whether they'd like to go to some lower lows uh during this exact moment in time, and you can see, there's an extreme amount of fear within the stock market as well the fear index being in 19.. You can see that market momentum has extreme fear stock price strength. I don't know where it's getting this, but you see greed here and every other. Every other metric is extreme for your stock price stock price breadth, extreme fear, putting call options.

Extreme fear, market volatility, fear, safe haven, demand, fear, junk bond demand, extreme fear, uh and in these states of extreme period, typically see some form of a bounce uh, which i would expect uh as in in moments of extreme fear. These are actually the the perfect buying opportunities, and you typically don't see these uh these these type of days very frequently uh, which is we're going to talk about here in a little bit. I want to talk about hedging problematically, though right you've got basically your your avenues of approach to making money, crypto and stocks really struggling right here, real estate holding up okay-ish uh, but what's the real problem at hand, it's inflation and cost of living and how the Fed is handling these problems and to sort of combat this and talk about this today the fed has organized an emergency fed meeting and i honestly think it's going to uh raise rates by 75 to 100 basis points. That's my guess.

That's my prediction: uh in response to sort of uh confidence levels in the u.s stock market, which is only the defense job by the way, is to manage confidence and to manage the market which they are doing a terrible job of by the way, but inflation's just Out of control, the fed's not been aggressive enough, and they know this and their quantitative tightening has to be more aggressive or the markets are just going to keep melting down this way, inflation is just going to keep getting worse, which it has eight point. Six percent year over year is may's, uh inflation rate, which is awful cost of living, doesn't even match up with that i mean, if you look at some basic expenses, i pulled this off of uh wall street silver. Uh price increases on the last year. You're going to see gas airline tickets used cars, hotel suits, bacon oranges, tires furniture, milk, you go down the list.

How does this add up to 8.6? It's very likely that the the actual state of the economy is worse off than we're being pitched uh and to make matters worse. Well, people are making enough money to handle things and here's two ways to to prove that u.s, real average hourly earnings going down uh. It's gone down since september of 2021 and you've seen some really heavy drop-offs since january, where in which you see it about 10.96 and atop, the matter uh delinquency rate on credit cards are starting to increase. You go from q2 of 2021 up to q1 of a q4 of uh.

No, no, no, my bad might be q1 of 2022 you're at 1.73 percent delinquency rate starting to increase. What does this tell us? It tells us that people are relying on credit cards for basic expenditures every day, basic living, uh costs, which isn't good right. Both of these things point towards the fact that people are just not making enough money, especially now that the stock market is bad uh. There's probably a lot of people that that were previously rich or at least moderately well-off that are now struggling a bit.

I mean there's a lot of stocks that are uh that are down significantly. So a lot of people have to spend money that uh that they thought they had, but no longer do. Maybe it was realized gains, maybe unrealized. Maybe they lost it.

I don't know uh, but this all affects your bottom dollar. Your cost of living and ultimately uh leads to a really poor state of confidence in the market and a really poor state of confidence in the economy, and this is real. This is very real uh. The effects of inflation uh are very real.

The effects of our economy are very real, and that brings me to my final point, which is the hedge. Now i beginning of this video, i said this is the beginning or the midst at the very least of the world crash uh, and what what do you do in a bear market? How do you, hedge that well outside of the one-off pops, like red box, right that run amidst uh economic downturn and bear markets and fear and fear and more fear, uh? How do you, hedge and the truth of the matter, is in the real time right? People have said that bitcoin can be a hedge people have said that meme stocks can be a hedge. People have said that uh that rare metals can be a hedge uh bonds could be a hedge, etc, etc. You go down the line, but the truth is uh.

You really can't, i don't think you can hedge in a bear market like this. I think what you can do in a bear market is have have uh two decisions. You have two decisions to make right, react to fear negatively or react to fear positively, and what do i mean by this? If you react negatively you're following the the general trend right, bear markets exist because massive amounts of people sell out of fear. This would be reacting negatively.

What would react like positively be the opposite and an extreme fear in a bear market right. You want to be the buyer. I've said this a million times, but today feels like a day to really reiterate it in a day of extreme fear. You don't want to be the seller, there's not as much downside as there is upside on extreme fear days, and does this mean today's the bottom? No, i just got done talking to you about how uh the stock market could go down to 350..

I i think it's generally possible uh, depending on how the next couple days go especially possible if the fed gets more aggressive with fed uh with rate hikes. You know if they actually bump it up 75 to 100 basis, points uh and really move forward with quantitative tightening, but in the midst of extreme fear, your choice is very simple: you know, are you the buyer? Are you the seller? Are you going to hand your money over to some whale who's waiting for this? This moment, this opportunity to make more money than they already have? You know, uh, add to their billions of dollars or you're gon na be the buyer. This is how you, hedge against inflation. This is how you, hedge against the bear market, you're the buyer in poor conditions.

Maybe you don't get a payout for a while? Maybe it takes a month, maybe it takes three. Maybe it takes six. Maybe it takes a year, but, as i've always said, you know, and i'm gon na i'm gon na die on this hill and i'll say it over and over and over again, every bear market eventually comes to an end and when it does, the stock market rallies. Uh - and i think that's gon na be the case here now - we're gon na watch it like 2008 or it takes years to recover, or are we going to watch another code, flash crash uh? I don't know to me.

Things seem worse now than it did in the the coleman flash crash. They seemed probably just as bad or worse as they did in 2008, especially because the fed can't bail us out here. You know we've already done the bailout. The bailout is the problem uh, so it could be another 08.

It could be worse than all weight, that's my opinion, so it could take time, but in the end the buyers are the winners, and i want to stand by that, and i want to really uh drive that home. The buyers will be the winners at the end of this bear market, so don't give it to the fear. You know. While you watch the world collapse, i know there will be winners at the end of the day and you can be one of them.

So that's what i've got for you guys. I wanted to take some time to talk about this. Uh appreciate y'all tuning in catch on the next one, much lovely taps and peace.