Good afternoon my friends really gang, i want to start off this video excuse my voice with another humorous little meme. Here i uh i like to start these off with a little bit of fun, because you know it's an emotional time. These are crazy times and uh. This is a pretty good photo amc to the moon, spotted amc to the moon.

In this this apartment complex, absolutely love. It had to start off with uh with a nice little bit of humor on what is up. Everybody welcome to trace trades. We get technical analysis on different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy, hold or sell opinions on these.

Given stocks, like your purpose, by saying that i'm not a financial advisor and are experts so take what i say with a grain of salt. Let's get into the video today we're going to be giving you guys an update on the charts. What amc situation is looking like right now, i do have updated numbers on fintel and or text as to what the short interest looks like i've got a couple different articles pulled up that i want to share with you give my opinion on quite a bit to Cover here today, but the situation for me stays the same and lastly, i want to give you guys a point of no return where the end game is here. If we don't win, where should you cut your losses, if we don't win right, because at the end of the day, nothing here is guaranteed.

This is wall street bets, not wall street guarantees. There's absolutely nothing about the situation that we can predict entirely right. We can look at the numbers, look at the overall short short volume, the short interest and take educated guesses, and my guess is that there is still squeeze potential so just wanted to throw that out. There is a little bit of a disclaimer, let's get into the video.

So if we look at the charts right now on the one month chart there's a couple different things that i want to point out to you. So you can see that we have been getting hammered down pretty pretty freaking hard, as of late, been very volatile and we have been squeezing down on price action. So what i have drawn up here is an ascending level of support and a descending level of resistance. Now, before i talk about that, there's a couple different things here that i find interesting and i've been asked about trey.

What are these super long wicks right here that make absolutely no sense like this one? What is this wick? What is this? What does this do? What does this mean right, or maybe this wick? What does this wick do? What does this wick mean right? I've got something pulled up for you that i think will explain it pretty. Well, i'm gon na show you guys right now. This is my take amc. Just fyi the hedges or, in my opinion, the market makers are doing stop hunts.

Let me break that down for you, uh paper-handed people. When you decide to put yourself for around 16 or 17 dollars, you just tipped off the hedge funds and prime brokers that a lot of orders are pooling around that level. So they do a stop hunt which appears as a spike in the chart that they immediately returns back to the current price. They've just bought the orders up to that 17 level.

They have just covered they've, just bought your cells they're able to cover that way. This is not financial advice, i'm just an old, dumb monkey. I just figured i'd. Let you know this is a thing out there in the trading world.

That is what i thought originally as well uh. I didn't read that until just today, but i did actually talk about this in a couple of live streams when people were asking saying trey. What are these huge, huge spikes that you're seeing here in the after hours in the pre-market? My take is that these are stop limit hunts, it's a way for them to fill orders and cover their short positions right in in certain situations or uh, as i was it's a way to get people out of their positions. That is that's my two cents about these.

These huge spikes that we're seeing. So what can you do to combat that right? Well, of course, i'm not a financial advisor. Please don't play with money that you cannot afford to lose. I want to say that, first and foremost, with this amc game, there is a lot of risk involved here, but if you do not want to be sold out until the squeeze does happen, i would either recommend a not selling a limit order or b um setting It extremely high so that they cannot make it happen right.

So i don't know about 30. 40. 50. I mean that would be pretty insane.

If you see it speak up spike up that high, but i find it pretty unlikely, so that would be my two cents on that right there. But in terms of how the chart looks right now, guys, i don't see it dropping a lot lower than it is right now if it does drop lower. What we're looking at is right about here. We've got.

We've got a level of support sitting right around 5.36 right and we've got his level of support sitting at 4.48 cents. This is not game over. If it does come back down to 536 and 448, i don't think that's game over. I don't think that means that all hope is lost right and i want to show you guys something really quick.

That leads me to believe that, and it is off of market beat. So let me show you, the market beat short interest. It's got a lot of different numbers in here right, so we see 863 right we're already. This is already out the window.

220. 198. 280. 427.

297. 279. 354. You guys get the picture so on and so forth right.

These numbers are pretty low in comparison to where the stock is currently trading right. Now, we're currently trading at six dollars and 88 cents as of the after hours of what would be february 5th so uh. While there is no exact timeline that shorts have to cover right, they do pay interest right, they may be getting margin calls and in order for them to to cover without a loss which is going to be in the millions and billions of dollars, millions and billions. I'm just kidding uh it's gon na have to come all the way back down below this 448 level.

So what is the point of no no return, my friends well in comparison to the volkswagen situation. Amc came back down to here. This is what a what volkswagen looked like before it had its huge huge rip, but i think it's going to come all the way back down to 5.36. I don't personally, i think the floor is pretty likely going to be right around this area, and i've got reason to believe this, because we do have a double bottom.

The george w a george w is a double bottom, which is typically the sign of an upcoming uh bullish reversal. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this amc situation. Technical analysis, first and foremost, is trumped by all-star news catalysts, all sorts of investors sentiment and the fact this has been bleeding for quite some time. Charts are ugly, not gon na bs.

You guys they don't look good, but it does not mean that all hope is lost, and i want to tell you why i've got some numbers pulled up for you. Intel did just recently update their overall short volume uh as of february 5th, and the numbers are insane extremely extremely high. 118.8 million short volume freaking shares on february 5th, guys anybody that tells you. This is a dead cat.

Anybody that tells you the game is over here - that the hedges already won, but they're done they're, not freaking done they're, not done. You would not have 60 short volume ratio, meaning that over about 60 percent of the total volume on the day being short volume, you would not have that if this was game over hedges would have moved on, they would have moved on and as long as they Keep playing in the fire pin my friends, they are going to get burned. The time is coming. Look at this 118.8 million short volume compared to 196 million total volume, 60.46 percent, the last four days, the volume comparatively to the overall total volume.

The short volume has been increasing. That is a lot of short volume. My friends, the game is not over, that is my two cents. Look at this.

I've got ortex pulled up. This is a site that i personally pay a subscription for, so i can get the most recent up-to-date information. We have known numbers right here, 88.29 utilization. Now, what does that mean? We look at the overall utilization.

This is basically uh. The ratio between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market and the number of shares available for lending at lending programs, zero percent means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs. 100 means that all shares available to borrow or lend at a lending program have in fact been lent, which means a little less than 12 of current lendable shares are only available right now. To short this stock cost.

To borrow this is 5.12 annually. Don't let people tell you this is daily, it's not daily, but at the end of the day, this situation drags out for a month even right. It's already been going for two three four weeks right so a month you're playing with millions of dollars. That's a lot of big number.

You take point five percent of a million dollars. Oh my gosh! That's going to make them bleed and that's that's really really low ball on it guys. A lot of these hedge funds could be playing with a lot more money than that they used to cover 0.66. What is days to cover in case, you were curious.

There's a lot of confusion out there. Ace to cover is how many days volume the current shares on loan equate to note. Average daily volume is based average, three month daily volume for the given security across exchanges. So you take the total short interest divided by the three month daily volume average.

That gives you a number 0.66 lower the number the easier it is for shorts to cover the higher the number the harder it is for shorts to cover. So what we're looking for here with this days to cover is for the number to start increasing. We are actually seeing that right. We saw on february 3rd, it was 0.70 see on february 4th it is 0.69.

So there is what i see here as a bottom on the days to cover and a trend reversal where we are starting to push a little bit harder back into bullish territory. Now this is just ever so slightly right, they're only ever so slightly starting to find this bottom, but you can see it here on the charts as well right. The momentum is slowing down. You can see that we ran it up.

A little bit pulled back double bottom here right at just about the same price level: 689. 666. So it's their step down a little bit, but with this decrease in volume and volatility you're, seeing that the shorts are not driving the price down anywhere near as fast or as much as we have seen here in the past rsi of the charts 40.. It has been oversold for one two, three four straight freaking days.

That tells you a lot about what's happening right now, with amc, regardless of the short volume and short interest. This stock is undervalued right, regardless of a squeeze. The stock is undervalued. I'm telling you this! I've got some good articles that i want to show you guys that is going to tell you a lot more about what's happening right now, so i want to show you this.

I find this article very interesting. I think it's going to answer a lot of questions. Amc and the real potential short squeeze. This is posted on february 3rd and, let's just read through it lately, there are a lot of questions about amc.

This guy's, not a financial advisor. Neither am i amc is not diluting their shares. In fact, they are buying back shares or reducing the available shares in market. Let's take a quick peek.

As of december 28 2020, there were 164.2 million shares of class, a common stock and 51.7 million shares of class b common stock outstanding. This was reported to sec on this form on december 31st, 2020. uh. The total class shares of approximately 6 164 million shares is, are correctly reflected in the below screenshot for modric capital management, lp they own 12.6 million shares or 7.7 percent.

All the other executive accounted for 1.6 and silverlight group has 21.3 well. There should be 69.4 shares floating in the market if there was no other owners. That means there will be about 114 million shares uh sharing with unidentified owners fact they could be sitting at different institutions like fidelity, different mutual fund holders and individual stockholders or retail owners, see the number right here: 112.684 million 7.7 percent as of january 27th. This is, this is a big big, big one, guys: silver lake converted all their debt equity, the class, a common stock and sec form security sales purchase record on the 29th.

There are rumors about silver lake groups, selling their 44.4 million shares to the exchange. I believe these rumors are fake. News on social media was created by hedge funds, who make us all of us believe that amc was diluting their shares by adding an extra 44.4 million shares into the market. In reality, it never hit the market silverlake sold it indirectly.

To some individuals - whom i don't know, i'm still researching on this, but using your intuition - that if they sold 44.4 million all at once to the exchange think about this guys on january 29th, it would have definitely crashed the stock and brought the price all the way Down to one or two dollars fact, january 29th to february 2nd amc stock was stable and rising right on the date that this was supposedly sold. It reportedly sold it all. On january 29th, at the average price of 16.5 per share, which mean the buyer has to be some private, wealthy person or some institution or even amc itself. Another point adding to this is the debt contract with silver lake will not be matured until may 1st 2026..

Why would amc quickly get rid of silver lake pay them out with an extreme high price if their shares only worth one or two dollars a share like those stupid analysts and mkm partners suggested and he's talking about that. One dollar hit piece that that market watch put out absolute garbage. Also, the interest rate for their bond equity is only 2.25 which is considered pretty low. So essentially, what this is saying guys is at silver lake incident right when silver lake supposedly sold 44.4 million shares diluting the overall market volume, which would be true if that was the case, silver lake did dilute the overall market volume.

That would make this a pretty hopeless situation um, but, as he mentioned, if they sold on january 29th, 44.4 million shares. Let's look at this: let's just do a little fact. Checking january 29th, there's no flipping way. You saw 44.4 million shares sold because it would have absolutely plummeted.

The stock price, as he is saying, right all once you just dump those all at once. That is going to crash the stock and we do not see that back january 29th held up extremely extremely well january 27th, when the deal was being talked about actually was a green day right. Well, i think that's interesting. I'm going to come down here to the next piece short interest on amc is not 15.64 float, and i bring this up because i've had this tweeted at me.

A lot ihor do send out uh dusaneski right. He is uh. He works i'll. Just read this to you: i am 100 sure that s3 partner is providing us inconsistent data.

Percentage of short interest between amc and gamestop keyhorn, who claim to be managing director of s3 partner, is lying to our face with his calculation. Let's dive in his analysis compared to public records that i got from nysc exchange on january 15th, short interest report, first of all, according to eorn's definition of short interest percent of float formula to calculate it is, as such, number of shares. Shorted divided by number of shares available to trade, which is the float now look at his tweet on gamestop and amc this morning of february 3rd 2021., gamestop short interest is 2.38 billion. Uh 26.39 million shares shorted 51.72 percent short interest float.

34.09 s3 short interest, float 16 bar fee and easing shares shorted have decreased by negative 35.8 million over the last week. Shorts are down negative 9.6 billion dollars in 2021, which includes down uh 211 million on today's move, the nine percent day amc. This is the one. That's interesting: your interest is 345 million dollars, 44.16 million shares shorted 15.64 short interest float 13.52 as three short interest float, six percent borrow fee and easing the six percent borrow fee.

That's believable! We can. We can validate this because we look at. We looked at uh, ortex or texas. Cost to borrow is five percent.

That's believable he's actually helping our cause here, a little bit uh and if his data is more relevant to mine, that's that's fair, but check this out. Look at the report from the new york stock exchange as of january 15. 2021.. Now do keep in mind.

This is from january right, but look at the overall float and look at the outstanding 51.03 million compared to outstanding 69.75 million gamestop 121 percent short interest. Amc 56.57 million float right: 287 million outstanding 78.97 percent - short interest vote. So if you do the math here, we apply his formula to the real-time data to see the percentage gamestop 26.39 million divided by 51.03 51.72, which matches its tweet amc, 44.16 million, divided by 56.57 million, which is the float here, 78.06 percent, which did not match his Tweet of 15.64. Now, where are the numbers coming from check this out? 44 million shares shorted right divide that by the total right here it would be 56.57 million the float.

Now, let's just do some quick math. My friends check this out short volume. 118 million. Take that divided by a total here of float right, 118 divided by 56 you're, looking at a 2.1 times 210.

If numbers are correct, i'm presenting the numbers to you. As i see it right, the numbers are correct. That is what you're looking at and that that's absolutely dirty. This is coming from his formula right here.

Right number of shares, shorted see right here, number of shares, shorted 118.8 million come down. We check out the total float number of shares available to trade, which is the float 56.57 million. So you do some quick, math, 118 million coming from here, i'm not even going to round it up 118 million divided by 56. That is 210 210.

This is not a dead cat, it's not! This is not a dead cat, guys, there's so much, there's so much crazy information going around there guys, i'm telling you i'm telling you this is such an important article. This means an immense immense amount think about this, even if we, if we err on the side of caution, say 78.97 right. We say this number is correct. That is such a high short interest.

That's insanely high! That's crazy! I did the reverse calculation again at 44.16. Divided by 0.51546, equals 282 million. So what why why he didn't consistently use the same float reported number as a denominator like the calculation for gme. Somehow they claimed to be expert ewor changes formula when calculating amc short interest percent float, use the number of short divided by the total outstanding shares for amc, which everyone should know that this outstanding shares is incorrect to be applied in the formula no stupid company would Ever sell 100 percent of the stairs into the market and completely lose ownership of the company.

I suspected that the hedge funds is instructing him to deceive us at first pretending to disagree with cnbc and on our side. So we will believe in his data, then immediately switch to seriously trading changes on a day-to-day basis. Shorts were holding on, and now we we're seeing them cover their position. That's what i want to cover there.

Is it a potential short squeeze? I can't say for sure if any squeeze will happen, which i've been saying forever right, we can just look at the numbers and we can see that it's still possible right. I 100 think it is still possible. I can't say for sure if this is gon na happen, but it has a lot of similarities to volkswagen squeeze in 2008. Because of this, both volkswagen kbio has first appeared to be a dying company and then suddenly resurrected, so is amc.

Ceo adam aaron announced that bankruptcy is no longer on the table, and that makes sense. Ceo uh definitely is not going to be hurting after the amount of action the stock price has seen right. Both volkswagen and kbio suddenly had a crap ton of cash to continue their business. Amc said it has enough cash to survive until july of 2021., calling back shares that are loaned to shorts or ever available in the market due to companies restructured, i'm not 100 sure.

On this for amc, but if you read my number one above you'll see the outstanding shares for class, a has reduced significantly, it must be some restructure within the firm short interest was high and fee to borrow were super high in both volkswagen and kbio. We are seeing that short interest of amc is approximately 80 percent and its cost to borrow will increase if we keep holding and buy the dip. It's just demand versus supply. Last but not least, amc is good to be a long hold zack investment, research, upgraded amc to strong, buy and analyze.

That is worth at least 20 to 23 per share blackrock incorporated as a smart investment firm. There's no reason why we'll pay money to buy more shares of a dying company blackrock did increase their stake in this company, as we have covered here in previous videos. Their stake is now about 6.2 million total shares or just over five percent of the company's available. Lendable uh available shares in the market right.

That's some great crazy information. There's a lot of crazy information out there, guys i'm telling you i get tweeted all the time. I get asked all the time. Trey i've seen this number i've seen that number i've seen this number i've seen that number right and it can be really confusing.

Who even knows who even knows if these numbers are right right? What we can do is just look at what's available to us, and what we see available to us is this 118 million short volume, 60.46 million or 60 60.46 percent of the total market volume. You can see the short interest according to this article right, if you do some quick math is almost 80 and that's just if we take the numbers from february 3rd. If we take the numbers from here, it is much much much much much higher much higher. It's insane, it's absolutely insane.

Last thing i want to cover here in this video is this: did amazon on netflix try to acquire amc in 2021? What would happen? Well, let's just read this real quick. Every week, ben zinger conducts a survey to collect sentiment on what traders are most excited about, and it was on these things. Amazon should buy, amc, netflix should, or neither - and what we saw here is. Is this i'm going to look at the overall reports this week, study found 44 percent of response, saying a netflix mc m a would make sense in 2021 and what particular ways could netflix leverage amc.

One respondent noted in the midst of this pandemic. There's. No doubt we live in a world where it seems people want to have everything streamed in their homes, including the new film movies that come out in theaters. One idea is, netflix could operate, amc and a number of their new releases would go to the theaters first.

Then a month or two later be on netflix viewers who miss going to the movies, but are loyal. Fans of netflix original films will get the best of both worlds. In the event of a netflix amc m and a 24 percent of people said, amazon should complete this deal right. Many traders and investors who participated in our study said amazon can make admission to theaters available as a prime video option.

Amazon chief jeff bezos announced in thursday's fourth quarter earnings report that amazon prime membership has exceeded 150 million, 32 percent of traders and investors told us amazon and netflix should avoid acquiring amc in 2021. This is most likely because uh, they don't see much promise here. Any respondents were adamant that theater business wasn't working financially before the pandemic, isn't working now and won't work any time in the near near term. Now you can take that for what it is, but what i'll tell you is if this happens right, let's say that hypothetically amazon or netflix do buy out amc.

What happens? Company acquisition under friendly terms typically means that shareholders take a profit right. So that's why? I love microvision so much there's a lot of money tied up in microvision, which is a whole different block. Whole different uh ball of wax to get rocking into, but um. Let's say that uh amc is bought out right per billion dollars of acquisition.

Shareholders will be paid a stake right. So in microvision's case, if they're bought out for 10 billion dollars, you'd be paid about seven dollars per billion dollars in acquisition per share or seventy dollars. A share if it was a ten billion dollar acquisition. Now, in this case, i don't know what the exact dollar sign per share would come out to right, but you would be paid per billion dollars in acquisition.

Amc is a long long, lasting company, my friends and if amazon or netflix, both very very wealthy companies, decide to buy out amc. I can guarantee you one thing: you're going to make your money back. You just take the same number from from mbis right and this is this: isn't a vacuum. I know that.

I know that, but just for simplicity's sake right and we say we have a five billion dollar acquisition right, seven dollars for five times five, seven times. Five. Thirty five dollars a share you'd come out on top. If this did happen, this is a good thing if amazon or netflix were to buy on amc.

That would be a good thing. You'd walk away, a very happy guy or gal. I can 100 promise you that, and five billion dollars is really low ball balling. These guys, i mean emc, is a big company granted.

You know they don't have great financial history. In the past couple of years they were on the verge of bankruptcy, but oftentimes. It's about the potential, it's what you can offer a company right if you can offer a company a lot of growth and a lot of revenue. That is where the money comes right.

So i think this would be an absolute slam dunk. How likely is it? I don't think likely in the near term right. This may be something that takes some time to develop um. I i don't anticipate seeing this anytime in the next month or two months, so i don't want to get anybody's hopes up, but i wanted to throw that out there as as an act of confidence if this does end up happening, and you see that on your Radar one more thing: what is the? What is the? What is the end game here right? When should you abandon ship? When should you get out of the stock? When do we know it's game over well right? Now, it's not game over i'll.

Tell you that, right now, it's gon na be two things. As long as there is still increasing or or um, i would say, consolidating short volume coming into the stock and high short interest. The game's, not over squeeze potential is still there. Secondly, as long as there are hit pieces and media coverage on the gamestop and amc situation, this game is not over the the potential is still there.

Lastly, this stock drops back down to this previous, complete previous level down here at two dollars, right, two dollars and two dollars a three dollar range. At that point, you might be looking at a game over where the hedge funds won, where you where you might not come out on top, but we are not in that situation. Right now, my friends, i promise you that i have a stake in this. Just as everybody else does, i've got about 389 shares.

Currently, in my my weeble account and 150, my fidelity account. I had more before um before my my account got liquidated and um, but this is what it's looking like right now, my friends, i 100 believe that this is uh. This is still a doable thing. The squeeze is still possible and it's just going to take some time to play out.

My word of advice treat this stock like a long-term investment right. You don't sweat your tesla, you don't sweat your apple, don't sweat! Uh your favorite stock fuel cell right. I don't think about those companies. I don't because i know what they do, i believe in them.

I believe they're going to continue to grow right. I believe i have high conviction and why i purchased the stock. That's how i'm looking at amc right now. I have high conviction and belief in the reason that i purchased this stock, so the price to me is psychological right.

If it goes up and down right i'll celebrate the ups. That's awesome! It goes down i'll, be going like this because i'll buy it for cheaper. It's a fire sale. Look at the rsi.

The numbers are the same. The numbers are the same, my friends. It applies everything on the charts. They'll apply right now on the rsi here, 29 right, it hasn't really gotten above even it's just barely gone above neutral once 52 51.

This stock has been oversold for four days. It's been heavily assorted, attacked short attacked for four days. There is still potential here. This is on sale.

This company is worth more than 6.88 per share. In my opinion, they're not financially in trouble anymore, they've been taking advantage of the stock price, and this and the movement that's happening here, guys, i'm telling you right now. This is not a dead cat to me, the end game. You'll know this is over the short volume dies and the media stops covering this, and this goes all the way back down to two dollars.

That is what i have for the video today. Thank you for watching uh and if you would not mind, dropping a like really does help support the channel and consider subscribing if you like, to see more content like this. Lastly, i have an affiliate link in the description box down below for weeble. Weeble is the version for uh desktop that you're watching me use right now, uh, you use my link to get two free stocks with a 100 deposit.

It did just change for four stocks. I also received free stock you're gon na support the channel and, if you're not interested, my friends, that's totally fine, i'm just glad you're taking the time to support me and watch the videos. So that's what i have for you guys today. Thank you for watching my friends and i'll see you all next time.