What's up youtube? Oh man, you already know what it is. You already know what it is drop that in the comment section down below what is up, everybody welcome to trace trades. We have technical analysis and different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy holders or sell opinions on these given stocks, i like the purpose by saying that i'm not a financial advisor nor expert so take what i say with a grain of salt. Let's get into the video today we're going to give you guys an update here on ticker symbol, amc the whole situation here right.

I have been trying to cover this as much as i can. I have not been around as much lately. I do have my girlfriend here for valentine's day by the way happy valentine's day out there to everybody, you're rockin solo, happy galentine's day, happy valentine's day, whatever uh, whatever you're celebrating right now make sure you get a nice dinner or maybe some whiskey, some woodford reserve Is my go too, but uh yeah, i mean you know how it goes so we're gon na look at this on the charts right. We're looking at this on the one month chart to give you a macroscopic overview of how the stock is looking right.

Now i do think we have found the bottom, but i want to give you guys realistic expectations as to what you can expect here with amc. That way, we can, you know, be up to date and give people a realistic entry point and exit point. If you are looking at this stock as a squeeze potential stock, i do think there is still squeeze potential with amc. We're going to talk about a bunch of different numbers here right.

I've got a couple of different news. Articles pulled out that i want to present to you guys uh some different things that i found here on reddit and i do want to talk about. You know realistic, investing and trading, as i think that amc did scare away some people, so i do want to give a little bit of you know, maybe a tip for people out there, who maybe amc gamestop was their first overall, you know stock. They ever invested in that way.

We can give you you know this, because this isn't normal. This is not. This is not how the stock market usually operates. So we've got quite a bit of cover here today.

Let's just get right into the video, so we're gon na start off here with the chart setup. What are we looking at? Well, if this is the first time that you've tuned in the first time, you really paid attention to amc. What we have here is we had a really nice run from about three dollars up to about 25 and 80 cents, and a lot of people think that this stock, the squeeze, has already been squeezed right. I don't necessarily think that is the case.

I think that what you saw here is maybe a gamma squeeze which, if you do not know what a gamma squeeze is, it's basically call options stacking on top of each other and compounding into a very huge run-up on a stock right. You do see that happen right here. We went from what would be about three bucks, all the way up to twenty-five dollars and eighty cents, which is about an eight hundred percent run-up if you're able to sell out you're doing pretty good. But i know a lot of people did not.

In fact, there are probably some people out there that bought at the tippy top of this uh of this stock. If you did in your bag holder, i apologize my friend i would suggest averaging down, because i do see some fundamental value with amc as a company, even if the squeeze does not happen right at this point, i'm viewing this as a long-term stock, and i do Recommend you do the same, because if you just take every single day - and you tell yourself man - i really hope this squeezes today really hope the squeeze is tomorrow. I really hope it's coming. It's coming.

It's coming right. This could take some time to play out game. Stop right when we look at game stop and how long that situation took. Let me just pull this up here on the charts.

Really quick game. Stop was a long time in the coming right. You see it was 10 and 72 cents back here. If we look back six months, even four dollars and 43 cents came up to about eight bucks came back down to about nine ten nine fourteen twelve like it, was an up and down process for quite some time until we saw this push up to about 40 Bucks - and it hung out here in that that you know that twenty dollar range for quite some time.

This would have been a couple weeks, two or three weeks right. That was a very coordinated attack that took some time to play out. So amc very well could take the same amount of time and some things that we're lacking here on the charts right now, if we just take a quick peek here is the volume - and i know i have had some people say: hey trey, you know what the Volkswagen squeeze didn't have a lot of volume and you know so it could be possible here, but the difference between the volkswagen squeeze and the amc squeeze is you're. Looking at you know a much different setup in terms of who's getting into the stock, so with volkswagen right.

What we know is that porsche wanted a heavier stake in voting power over over volkswagen, so what they did is they increased their their shares right. They increased their stake in the company slowly over time over about a year and a half period of time right. The stock price, slowly climbed up the german government also got into this right, and we saw hedge funds saw this they're like nah. You know volkswagen isn't worth this much money, it's going up for no reason they shorted it and the squeeze happened off of not a lot of volume, but the difference being.

That was two entities as compared to millions of people coming together here on reddit. It's gon na be very difficult to get all investors on the same boat, which is why i think we really do need the volume here, because you know so many people are going to do different things regarding amc and this squeeze situation. So that's why i really do think we need the volume here and i i did debunk this - i shouldn't say debunk, because it could be possible right, but i've also seen some numbers regarding you know short interest floating around with 400 000 total available shares uh regarding Utilization right, how many available short shares there are, i don't know if that's quite the case right, it could be. There's there's no way to know for sure is the thing is we do see different numbers floating around different? You know news sources on the internet, but what we're seeing right now is, we do look like we have found the bottom.

So if we zoom out here and get that stupid wick out of the way, because that does really mess up the price action, we see that we're actually beginning to form an ascending level of support. This does look like 5.26 may have been the bottom and i'll. Tell you what we look for is three touch points on any level to indicate that it is a respected level of either resistance or support. We do have that right here.

We've got one two three different touch points. I don't consider this a break, even though we've got this small candle wick hanging out right beneath that ascending level of support right. We look for a hard wide range candle bar that breaks beneath that to signify to me that we have disrespected that ascending level of support or resistance, which is something like this. What i just highlighted that is going to be to me what signifies that we have broken this descending level of support, so we are finally beginning to set higher highs and higher lows, which is a beautiful step in the right direction.

It's gon na be getting that snowballing effect to get more people into the stock right, because i'll tell you what this huge bleed that took place. All this did is give people false hope. Essentially what it was is, like you know it hasn't. I mean we had this huge sell-off for these two days, but it's just been a slow bleed since and with that is gon na come a decrease in volume.

Now it gives me some pretty decent hope is. We have a lot of volume that came in back here back here right and this slow back down in volume tells me there's probably a lot of people holding this right which to me you know we can we can validate, because we know that you know this Is the most held stock on robinhood? It's surpassed apple and tesla, and microsoft is the most held stock. I do think it is still the case. As far as i know, we know there are a lot of buyers that step into there.

You know right, even though it's not a lot of volume coming in, we do know the majority of it is buying volume, so that is very significant right now we have the 15 ma cross underneath the 200 ema, the blue trend line underneath this purple trend line. If you're not familiar the 15 day ma is the moving average. It's just a price action based valuation trend line over a 15-day moving period, a microscopic perspective of price action and then the 200-day ema. The exponential moving average is a long-term macroscopic perspective of the same price action over a 200-day moving period anytime, that you have the 15 ma trading underneath the 200 dma that is considered bearish territory or seller's territory right.

So this is still a little bit bearish. But what we do see here is some consolidation. Consolidation to me does favor uh buyers just slightly as it does tell people hey. This is the bottom, i'm not going to feel super uncomfortable getting into the stock at this point and i would anticipate within the next.

You know one to two days that we see a pretty hard push on this descending level of resistance. We get the three touch points, one two, three, four right. If we break above this with a wide range candle bar, i think that's going to be the catalyst on the charts that really helps push the stock back into that upward direction. You're going to be looking for a candle like this right that nice wide range candle bar to signify that we have escaped out of this.

You know this uh, this kind of consolidation phase of where we're trading at right now on the stock. So that's how we're looking right now volume is not anything crazy. If you look at this on the daily chart and just take a quick peek, you know on a one day time frame, we did see 46 million 55 million, so it is drastically lower than we have seen here in the past. So we really do need that volume to set back up.

If you want to see the volatility come back into the stock volume drives volatility. Volatility is going to drive those higher price valuations, so you know we we, we have been having quite a few red days. This is probably the ugliest the ugliest chart setup that i've ever seen in my entire life. It's not very often, you see a setup like that where it comes up to 20 and 36 cents and then over you know, 12 day period.

1. 2. 3. 4.

5. 6. 7. 8.

9. 10. 11. 12.

13. 13 day period. You only have two green candles right, so i really do feel pretty comfortable where we're at right now with uh with this setup. I do think we are actually coming up here on a reversal and all we need is the volume to get back into the game.

Let's take a quick peek at the rsi right now it is trading at 41., so it does look like we are out of this extremely oversold territory right. We do have some buyers starting to step back into this and we're gon na look at the short interest here. The short volume ratio, the numbers, so we can get an idea of what we're actually looking at here with amc. So i'm gon na pull up the short interest for amc on fintel and then ortex.

So we can get an idea of what we're looking at. You know take this with a grain of salt, because we do know that or fintel did change their numbers here on a day-to-day basis, but just looking at this right now, what are we seeing right? Well, as of february 12th, we do see that there was a short volume of 8.01 million shares, total, which is 17 uh volume ratio compared to the overall market volume of 46.5 million. In comparison, what we've seen here in the past, this number is actually going down. A little bit right, we do see that uh back in you know february 8th.

It was 31. 20.34. 16.29. 28.

20.87 right. So it's kind of backing down here a little bit and what might be the reasoning behind this? Well, it might be the fact that the stock price is starting to level off here right. I think some investors are starting to step back into this. You are seeing a little more buying pressure, you're, not seeing as many people panic sell, because the price is not.

You know moving as much it's stagnating a little bit, it's consolidating, and this is giving that confirmation to investors that hey. I think this is the bottom. I feel a little more comfortable holding my position right now and i feel a little more comfortable buying into my position right now. So uh, that's how that's looking right now on fintel the cost, to borrow the short borrow fee rate is 2.43 annually.

I've seen some people say that this is daily. That is not the case right. I don't want to spread any sort of false information. Um, that's that's the interest rate annually right.

So it's not a huge amount of interest that we're seeing here on the stock. As of right now bless you my girlfriend sneezed anyways, that's what we're looking at right here. The total shorts available right is 5.6 million. As of right now - and i have seen numbers floating around, you know somewhere on that 450 000 range right, and i also have seen some screenshots, and i think this is true - that uh some brokerage accounts aren't actually not letting you short the stock or if they Are it's very limited, so we do know that the availability right, the utilization - is really getting to be a factor in this stock right now.

But i do still think that the squeeze situation is going to take some time to play out right if you're viewing this. As a one day to five day, squeeze a five day play right at this point: it's just not realistic and i don't want to get anybody's hopes up. I don't want to spread false hope or information right. This is a play that is going to take some time to develop.

I truly truly do think that and if you're not in for the long haul right, you don't want to hold on to this stock anymore. You want to put your money somewhere else. There's absolutely! No shame in that whatsoever. My friends i mean that i, i truly do think you're gon na be able to make money on other plays as well.

So i would really highly encourage if you do hold a position at amc. So, at the very least, have some side plays right, so you can generate some revenue, have some fun in the market right, because you're gon na get extremely bored playing uh, just playing amc and waiting for this thing to go to the moon, uh, which i do Still think has a potential to happen right, but it's gon na take some time to develop. Now if we look at ortex, i do pay about 500 a year to use the most up-to-date information regarding short interest on ortex. I do think this is pretty valuable information.

Pretty relevant information we do see the current utilization rate is 78.33. Now what is utilization if you're not familiar? It's the ratio between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market, the number of shares available for lending and lending programs. Zero percent means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs and 100 percent means that all shares available to borrow or lend and a lending program have in fact been lent. So as it sits right now, this means that we have 78.33 of current utilizable lendable short shares being held right, which means that we have about 22 of available short shares available for lending.

So this number is actually down about 10. From what we've seen seven days ago, it has you know, kind of stagnated here for the last couple days. I think the last amc, video that i posted was about 79, so down just the hair, but the utilization is still extremely extremely high when you've got short utilization. That is above 50 percent.

That means that you've got potential for a squeeze right. That's pretty significant numbers! We do see the cost to borrow is a little bit higher here. It is 4.4 compared to the fintel information. I would favor the or text information as i do think it is a little less biased, but we have seen that there are different numbers pretty much everywhere.

You go regarding the short interest and, and the cost to borrow all these numbers right, which is really really significant in the fact that i want to double down on this. The numbers, no matter where you go right - it's it's so easy as investors to just to just cherry pick to pick and choose the numbers you want to pay attention to, but you need to take every single number that you're seeing right now with a grain of Salt, because we know that the amc information that we've been seeing right has been altered a little bit and no matter where you go. You're gon na see different numbers, i've seen 15 in some places in regards to short interest. I've seen 66 percent in some places.

Regarding short interest right, so it's it's very different depending on where you look, we've got percentage free float on loan, which is 24.04 now. What is this? If you're not familiar? It's the percentage of the company's free float that is currently out on loan, so that is a pretty decently. You know it's not a bad number. It's not bad whatsoever.

24 is pretty decently high and then, as you guys are aware, we did see that the current you know short interest that was posted here on 29 or 9th of february. Regarding the settlement date of 29 january was 37 37.7 million, which is a little bit lower than we see right here of 44.67 million. Now my reasoning behind this is, you did probably see some shorts cover when you saw this, what i would consider a gamma squeeze. Of course, you are going to have some shorts that cover their positions right, but that is the case right now with what we're looking at right here, i do think you had some shorts cover, and this is not information regarding february right.

This is the information regarding 15 january to 29th january, so you know i do find it pretty highly likely that once the next information is available to us, you're gon na see the short interest go up just a little bit at the very least right. So that's what we're looking at right now days to cover. I see a lot of misinformation going on with days to cover as well. I do want to give you guys an idea of what this actually is.

So it's how many days the volume uh how many days volume the current share is on loan equate to note. Average daily volume is based average, three month daily volume for the given security cross exchanges. So what this basically is - and i'm just going to pull up a quick description for you days to cover stocks right, we're going to read this off to you. So there's no misinformation in the least bit, so it is calculated uh.

Let me just pull this down by taking the number of currently shorted shares and dividing that amount by the average daily trading volume for the company in question. For example, if investors have shorted 2 million shares of abc and its average daily volume is 1 million shares, then the days to cover is 2 days so days to cover equals short current short interest, divided by average daily share volume. This is not one day of share volume right. It is over a three month period, as was stated here in ortex.

So what this data cover is sitting at right now is point six four, the lower the days to cover the easier it is for shorts to cover their position. It's not necessarily a good thing that the decent cover is low. In fact it is. It means this isn't shorting territory, it's in the seller's territory, in order for us to get back into that squeeze potential.

We're really going to need to see this days to cover, go up and what that's going to take is the same amount of um or an increase. Actually, i should say in short volume - and it needs to take up a large percentage of this overall uh. This overall volume on a three month period. So that's what we're looking at right now for days to cover it has gone down just a hair.

It was at 0.7, came back down to 0.64, which does make sense, because we did have another red day here on the charts. That is what we were looking at here on ortex now. One thing that i find very interesting is the amc institutional ownership, and i do want to pull this up for you guys, really quick. This is updated pretty much on a daily basis, but there are some companies that have stepped into here with some pretty heavy stakes.

We do see the vanguard and blackrock as of february 10th, did increase their overall stake in amc. We see that vanguard has a 7.6 million share stake in the company, which is about 4.67 of the total ownership right. That's not just institutional ownership, that's across the board! So with just these two companies combined, if all we assume is that blackrock and vanguard currently have institutional ownership in the company that comes out to just about seven percent, which is a pretty decent amount. Anything over ten percent, i would say, is significant right, but these companies don't put money into a stock that they don't think is going to go up.

So even if the squeeze potential doesn't happen, i think that amc does have a lot of potential. For you know a midterm play, i do think it's got. You know, especially once quarantined and co-wood really starts to clean up a little bit. The amc theaters open back up worldwide right.

They we know that they raised up about 700 million dollars from uh. You know from from their shares, you know going up to 25 bucks. They did capitalize on that, which, i think is a great opportunity for them to keep business operation going. We've got enough.

You know open cash, free cash to be able to continue operations, at least until the end of 2021, according to the ceo, which is very significant right. So even if the squeeze doesn't happen - which i do still think has potential to happen - it's not there right now. We do need the volume we do need some more buyers to come back into this, because it's not going to happen until we get that volume in my personal opinion. But i am going to continue to hold my stake here in amc because i do see some potential for the midterm, regardless of whether the squeeze happens or not.

So that's what we're looking at right now in in regards to the overall numbers, pretty decent amount of institutional ownership. The vortex numbers say what they say: utilization is still pretty decently high. The short volume ratio take fins out with a grain of salt. We do know that they changed their numbers, they cut them exactly in half, which is very significant.

I i'm kind of sketched out by that right and we do know that there have been instances where short interest has been. You know manipulated, and that would not surprise me in the least bit to see that's the case here, based on some previous lawsuits. For instance uh. I don't remember the exact company, but if we just checked this out, it would have been about 2015 uh.

We saw you know finra, find we're just gon na check this out. So one second, let me pull this up all right, so this is back. In 2019, finra finds jp morgan securities, llc 1.1 million dollars for failing to timely, disclose 89 allegations of misconduct over a six year period right. So that's one instance right here we do see.

I just i have covered this in previous videos, but finra has fined companies. You know such as jp morgan for giving false information regarding short interest. I think it was about two million dollars which for them is chump change, they're willing to pay that two million dollars, so they can cover their butts and stay in their short positions, because they're gon na lose a lot less money. If they, you know fabricate numbers than if they they have to close their positions, so they're gon na do whatever they can to make that happen.

So if we just check out uh, you know some different things that i have pulled up here. Check this out, prepare to be transported in new worlds, with imax at amc. The immersive movie going experience experience at select, theaters amc, theaters uh. This was posted by amc on, i think, would have been about february, 9th or so i'd have to double check, but uh.

We do know that amc is starting to open back up right. This is going to increase the value of the company. We do know, there's some pretty nice sentiment regarding traders into this stock right, so i do think this is pretty significant if they can really capitalize on this imax. I have i've have heard talks as well about you know a virtual reality getting into a more immersive experience at the theaters that'd be a very niche market.

I really haven't seen that much in regards to you know. You know different movie, theaters experiences that i've gone to now. I want to present this to you guys as well. This is not me pumping the stock.

This is not me telling you to do anything, i'm not a financial advisor. That's not advice right, but this is something that is circulating around reddit and stock twits pretty heavily, and that is this. The amc, twitter, tuesday, 2 million tuesday morning. We fight the finale it's over.

We have defeated them. We just need volume at 9, 30 2 million of us are going to throw the final blow. Tuesday, 2 million - be part of history. Retweet, let's get new blood in the game, spread the wealth, so essentially what this is they're.

Looking for 2 million people to buy shares in amc tuesday morning at 9, 30 a.m, uh, which would be 8 30 a.m, cst here when the market opens now, i'm not telling you what to do right. This isn't me saying you should buy into this stock right because you know at the very least i think the risk is gone. I do think this is the floor. I think the volatility as of now as you guys can see, is not very high right.

So the risk of losing money is not very high, but the the potential for you know getting money making money right now right is not high either, because the volume is not there and i never want to ps you guys. I never want. I never want to give you guys, you know false hope or anything like that, but i do still have my position in amc. I have about 600 total shares.

I have been adding to my position as often as i can of dollar cost average down to. I think about 8 and 70 cents, or so so, i'm down about 30 on this in a couple thousand dollars, just as many people out there are, but i'm not gon na be selling, because to me this is a very similar situation to microvision. So microvision is a company that i am absolutely in love with. I think that these guys are gon na be a triple digit stock before you know it, but i bonded these guys back when they were sitting at about.

You know seven dollars eight dollars an average down throughout time, but if i had sold out back when i was four dollars and fifty cents - and i was down four thousand dollars right, i would have been able to capitalize on when i went all the way up To 22.37, and now i'm up over 200 on my position right, i'm up, i made a crapped on my own microvision and if i had sold out right, if i hadn't stayed true to my conviction, my belief in the company my homework, knowing the numbers, knowing the Value knowing why i bought in right and my panic sold and just paid attention to my emotions, i would have been able to experience this now. I'm not saying that the situation between amc and microvision is the same right. I'm not saying that this is going to exactly be what happens with amc, but in terms of where microvision was on the charts. I think we're about at that 4.50 mark.

We found the bottom now you're going to be looking at a slow climb back up right. You're gon na be looking at an opportunity for this to start increasing in value over time, attracting some new investors getting that volume back into the stock right now we are in the valley, the shadow realm dude. This is this is the low point. It's very very hard to keep those emotions in check, but if you got into this with strong conviction, you know the reason you bought into amc.

The price is psychological. I'm telling you my friends, i am not in the least bit worried about amc, because even if this squeeze does not happen, i fundamentally believe this company is going to be worth at least 20. So if you've taken, you know the the opportunity to average down on this when it has gotten down to this five dollars and fifty cent range right at the very least you're gon na be looking at. You know, let's let's say your average is eight bucks.

Nine bucks, ten bucks, it goes up to twenty dollars. You doubled up your money and you know if you can beat your roth ira guy. I think a good roth ira is gon na get you about 10 annually. You can't be complaining about that in the least bit.

I will wait for three months to get a double up on a stock if i absolutely have to so that's what we're looking at right here now. One last thing i want to cover here on amc in this situation, because i do see a lot of information out there that i think you know can give some people some false hope is. This is not the way the market usually operates. Right.

Amc is not a typical stock that you get into uh in terms of risk to reward ratio and management. So what is a good? You know, strategy for those who are looking to make money in the market. For me, it is nickel and dime over time. My friends, i'm i'm promising you this, so it's not exciting.

It's not exciting. To get those! You know just 10 here, 10 percent. There 15 here 15 there. But if you double you want to double your account check this out.

If you get 10 uh 10, you know growth on your portfolio eight times you double your account. You get that 12 times. You triple your account. So it's not it's not as fun to hit those.

You know. Those small you know, hits the first base, but those add up exponentially over time. My friends, and that is the strategy to build out your portfolio. That's how i turn my account from eight thousand dollars into forty.

Six thousand dollars in two months is hitting those ten percent first base hits where you can compound your your portfolio right have have strong conviction in your stocks. Uh buy into you know, five to seven different stocks, don't over diversify, so you can really experience those run-ups. Take the profits, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat: rinse and repeat: i'm telling you my friends, amc. I am still gon na be in this situation.

I'm not getting out of this because i do really firmly believe in the cause. I i've been very open and public about that, my friends, but this is not a typical play. This is not a typical stock that we get into as investors or traders right in terms of risk to reward ratio. This is a very risky play right.

I could have very easily sold here at the top at 25 and 80 cents um, but didn't you know i would have. I would have tripled up my money at that point and there's a reason i didn't it's, because i think the stock is worth more than 25 and 80 cents and if you uh, if you didn't, sell 25 bucks, either you're holding right now on 5.50, it doesn't Make sense to me right if you didn't think the stock was worth 25 bucks? Why would you sell it at five and a half? That's my two cents they're, my friends, but regardless right, this is not a typical stock. I really want to double down on that. My friends, if you are scared about the market, you think this isn't a place for you right.

You think man, i really screwed this one up. Why would i ever invest again? I want you guys to take a step back and just realize hey. This is not the way things usually are. I can make calculated and educated decisions.

I can do some good due diligence. I can do some research. I can stack those 10 days right over and over and over, even though it's not exciting, even though it's not fun i'll tell you what's: fun is uh, you know getting 20, you know 10 returns and seeing that your account has quadrupled or or 5xed that's incredible. It's not as fun, but i'm telling you my friends: that's the secret to building wealth, slow and steady over time.

My friends, nickel and dime you're gon na be very happy as an investor and you're gon na see your portfolio do some beautiful, beautiful things. So that's what i have for the video today, my friends, if you enjoyed it, please drop a like. It really does help support the channel and consider subscribing if you like, to see more content like this. Lastly, i have an affiliate link in the description box down below for weeble weeble is the brokerage account you're watching me use right now? This is version 4 for the desktop, absolutely great platform that allows you to start trading in the pre market at 4 a.m.

Up until about 8 p.m, uh, if you do use my link, you get two free stocks of the 100 deposit. I receive a free stock great to support the channel, my friends and, if you're, not interested, that is totally fine. I just appreciate your support by taking the time to watch my videos and be a part of the freaking gorilla gang, my fellow apes, so that is what i've got for you guys today. Thank you for watching my friends and i'll see you all next time.

Peace.