Man when, when you have the the last three four days in the market that we've had, you start these videos and you think to yourself like uh uh. What what can you say? That's it's witty and clever, and i think to myself today you know i look at i look at the amc. I look at the spy. I look at the broad market and all you can think to yourself is uh man.

This this thing looks bloodier than uh than my kneecaps when titans titan wants to to play right now, guys welcome back to trey's trades, really freaking talk faster, doesn't get classic. I'm everybody saying i'm not a fun factor expert! So take what you say: the greatest salt. Let's get into the video today, uh guys we're gon na give you a pretty thorough, in-depth update, uh on a couple different things. I'm gon na talk about amc, the spy and then i'll, give you guys a play of the day uh for tomorrow, and i wan na keep one thing in mind as well, and that's super high juice implied volatility when you're looking at different plays in the market.

Right now, maybe you want to attack quick. You know all these have kind of been scalps for these. These plays of the day uh whatever, so, if you're interested in that uh just be able to pounce fast. If that's something that you're interested in but we're gon na talk about the sell-off that we've had for the last couple of days uh when i think this will end personally and then uh the spy and the equivalency uh, this sort of there's a lot of similarities.

The way that these things are moving right now, the weakness that you're seeing uh in amc compared to the broad market uh as a little bonus, robin hood had a pretty interesting piece of news. I think most people should talk about. I know you're thinking to yourself. Maybe oh wow betray robin hood.

This is a great great company. This is that can't even say it's a great company. It's so good. I've got something pretty funny.

You guys don't get a kick out of then we're gon na talk about spy inflation. Uh basis. Point hikes, obviously these have been a very hot topic. The fed's been very hawkish we're going to discuss that china lockdown and gdp per capita.

I actually found this to be interesting. This is something that uh i started thinking about because of elon musk. Can i crunch some numbers that i find to be interesting, uh amid sort of this lockdown that chyna's uh dealing with and then important levels, so uh starting off right off the bat amc right? What's going on with it with amy? What's going on with the girl? Uh, why is this selling off the way that it is right? I've talked about this before i'll, bring it up again. I'm not gon na shy away from uh things that i find to be relevant and true uh, and what that thing is the premium difference between calls and puts right.

You look at the the current price is fifty dollars and fifty cents at close calls 69 cents. Uh puts drastically uh cheaper, i mean you can see 67 and 42 cents for one strikeout the money here, 46 cents. I mean it's very obvious that that puts are currently cheaper, meaning that market makers are more inclined to collect premium uh from the downside, they're more likely to sell, puts, which is inherently a bullish thing uh. But despite that, the stock has obviously been going down.

You can see i mean i don't have to. I don't have to tell you that we were down 8.61 today down 1.1 percent in the after hours uh. If you look at this on uh trading view you're gon na notice, it's the same thing. I mean it.

Just looks incredibly bearish, i mean nothing. Nothing looks very strong right now. So, what's the reasoning behind this right, why is everything struggling really the way that it is uh and for me it comes down to a very simple thing: i've used this analogy before i'll use. It again - and this is why i really haven't - talked about uh amy the last couple days.

You know i kind of gave my rundown on what i think is going on with the market and uh. Some of the worries that i personally have, and because of that you know, nothing's really changed and it's just been. It's just been pain and nothing's really changed from that, but i view it as this right and i've used this before i'll say it again uh. This is sort of like a beach right.

You got this beach right here. Uh and you've got the ocean, the ocean's, usually very calm, very timid, whatever it's chilling uh and over here you've got some beach goers, here's a little dude, here's, maybe a little uh party house. So maybe we're in texas. I don't know uh, you got a hotel over here, you got a big apartment, complex and all of a sudden, you see this huge wave coming in and in this wave you've got a whole bunch of different things.

You've got cpi concerns, you've got rate, hike concerns, you've got this uh china, lockdown stuff, you've got tech, tech, earnings, performing kind of mediocre and there's a whole lot of things that are in this wave, and this wave has just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger and Bigger and bigger and bigger, and now it is starting to come up to the shore and on this shore, you've got this beachgoer who's. Just getting freaking uh butt clapped by by a wave you've got this. This party house getting buck clapped by a wave. You've got this hotel getting buck clapped by way this apartment, complex, butt, clapped by the wave everything gets hit.

I mean truly the things that will withstand the most damage, maybe is like a huge building like you've got like a tsunami, uh shelter, so to speak, and even this is gon na take damage. You can think of this, as maybe like the spy right. The spy is really sort of the the the shelter in terms of uh how much damage is done and everything else is every other ticker in the market. This this little beach goer right here.

Maybe this is netflix i mean netflix is taking the. I think the brunt of everything going on it should really be a company that, despite any sort of economic problems, survives pretty decently, but that just shows you where, where the economy is currently at here, you've got amc here. You've got other small mids here, you've got tesla, i mean you just go down the list everything's getting hit by the wave right now i mean we really have to be able to zoom out and look at the grand scale picture in terms of what's happening. What you're gon na notice, if you look at my screen right now, is everything's red i mean there's the really.

The only thing green is uvxy and you know why that's anytime, you've got mass bleeding. You're gon na have uh the exact opposite of hemorrhaging, which is uh. Maybe a band-aid and that's the uvxy looks really good. I mean if you're, if you're playing this you're sitting all right, but nothing's surviving.

That wave is hitting every single thing on the beach. It's hitting everything in town and that is truly what's at stake here and that's what's holding, i think, amc down. I i know that i say this uh this sort of thing over and over and i've used that analogy before. But it's because it's genuinely the truth.

I mean if you look at the spy right now, you see sort of the massive correction that we have had uh. This is painting you a picture and the picture is massive amounts of fear. The market is very fearful right now. The people people are not comfortable with the fed they're, not comfortable with inflation, they're, not comfortable with uh the rate hikes, especially the flip-flopping of the rate hikes the uncertainty is at an all-time high.

I think that you've not seen uncertainty like this. In a very long time - and it just goes to show by looking at the strength and bulls - there's no strength - you look at the current chart - just sell off, sell off small bounce sell off, but i mean the bulls couldn't reclaim anything today. It's it's really just painful painful painful to see and every critical level the spies trying to touch has just been rejected. I mean it broke here, broke back down, rejected hard sell-off, i mean that's just the honest-to-god truth is nothing is holding uh and if that's for the the entire market, that's going to rub off, sadly into amc, there's no beating around the bush here, there's no other Way to say it, the only thing that would really be able to combat this, and really what you'd have to look for is a negative beta.

Now we've talked about this before, but a negative beta is when the the buyers of a specific stock typically do not correlate with other stocks in the market. Maybe that means that uh, since this is primarily a retail owned stock uh. It wouldn't move like like an institutionally owned stock. You would expect this.

In fact, i would personally expect this, and the reason i don't think negative beta presently exists is because of the options chain. I think this tool is an opportunity for the volatility and the insane swings up and down that we see on the on the ticker to happen via market makers and institutions and banks and and the like. You know uh options allow this to sort of not act like a negative beta stock, even if it is zone 90 by by retail investors, whatever uh because of the leveraging opportunity. Here i mean if you load up you're trading, a million contracts on a day or a week or whatever it may be.

You multiply that by a hundred shares, you're you've got a hundred million shares of volume, basically just synthetically created. You know and that's coming from the options market, so one will descend. You know to me: the chart equals the spy, it doesn't always correlate. Sometimes you look at the spy and sometimes amc has diverted itself from the the absolute the the still there.

There's no other way. To put it, i mean if you flip this upside down, it looks parabolic, so unfortunately we can't do that. You can't. Why can't i just what can i just we can't we can't flip it up this upside down.

This is just a parabolic move to the downside, when i think amc recovers, along with small mids, is when spy stops suffering. I genuinely think that, and i think what that comes down to is: where is the price in end right? Where, where do people feel comfortable with okay, we've priced in the uncertainty of how the fed is treating inflation and how the fed is treating rate hikes and how the fed is uh sort of reacting to a lot of the different things that are happening in the Economy right now, uh and that's that's kind of my take. I mean when you, you really sort of uh you're, seeing jesus take the wheel until the sell-off ends until the pain ends. Everything is going to suffer until the pain ends.

You know, and there are ways to combat that you can play, puts on on xyz stocks. You can uh you. Can you can hedge against your position, you can you can uh protect yourself from downside, whatever you want to do it's entirely up to you? I'm not here to tell you what to do uh, but this is just the truth. You know uh as as much as i like.

The setup amc has had a solid opportunity. Lots of opportunities to bounce - i i read the chart the chart is what it is. There's opportunity there uh the market's just not strong enough, it's not, and if the market's weak amc is going to be weak, that's just the absolute truth here so uh, i think sell-off ends when the spy sell-off ends. When you get a nice bounce here, you're gon na get in an amc which brings me to the spy right uh.

Actually at first i'm gon na read you this because we got ta, we got ta split up. Let's take a quick breath of air all right! We're coming up we're coming up from the depths of the ocean. You can take your scoop. Scuba diving mask off.

Let's read this: robin hood will cut about 9 of his full-time employees now to say that i shed a tear of happiness to say that uh that i got a half chub in my my wiener got a half chub reading. This news be an understatement, because these guys that's why robin hood can can uh can could suck the the skin. On my on my nut sack uh robin will cut about nine percent of his full-time employees, and i think this is very indicative of the situation that robin hood is in presently. They like to pretend like.

Oh we're innovative we're we're the knight in shining armor or the for the robin hood to the batman, but in reality the they're, the joker they're they're, the joker man - and this is just showing you that they're struggling that people are leaving you you don't let go. Employees, unless they don't have work to do uh or or if they can't afford to pay them, you know, and it's if it's either one of those two things they don't have work to do, or they can't afford to pay him. I would probably lean on they can't afford to pay him and that comes down to less revenue being generated from their business, which means people are leaving uh. Things are going entirely as planned, and i'm absolutely actually okay with this, i i'm not a fan of ramen.

I mean, obviously i don't think, that's a that's a hot. Take it's a pretty cold. Take that's like uh! That's like saying uh, yeah, uh, uh, yeah, elon's, rich hot. Take.

Did you know that? No, but i thought you're getting a kick out of that. There's! No much not much more to say but uh there's that, for you in case you're wondering also at an all-time low. So if you want to feel good about yourself, all you got to do very simple, stuff right. This is this will put a smile right on your face.

Come over to robin hood's chart h-o-o-d you'll notice, it's at 9 55 in the after hours from a high of 85 dolla charles gasparino anywho. Let's move on to the next stuff: what's going to be important to pay attention to right now for for amc for everything in the market, it's really going to depend on the spy. The spy is a reflection of what uh of what buyers, both retail and institutions, think of uh the economy uh their reaction to the economy, their reaction to sort of what's taking place on a day-to-day basis, right, uh and right now. People are fearful, there's a lot of fear and this comes down to a couple different things, big things.

Obviously, inflation and basis point hikes. We already know this, but inflation's been pretty gnarly and uh many speculate that this has not quite peaked. Yet we saw an 8.5 percent uh inflation rate coming from the last cpi data uh whatever, and because of this, the fed has been very aggressive, they've taken a very hawkish stance, they'd like to add two potentially 50 basis, point hikes uh, which is aggressive. It's more aggressive, it's more hawkish than the fed has initially led on uh to investors.

First, they said inflation's transitory, and now they say it's the it's, the putin, inflation or whatever, as if we didn't print off 80 of all money in existence which is 16 trillion dollars. That's how much was printed in the last two years as if that didn't happen, but i digress uh. Nonetheless, this is really the two big concerns right is uh. Is this going to be enough? Is the fed going to stick to their plan? Really? I think it's that is the fed going to stick to their plane.

Is this actually going to help out inflation? My gut punch reaction? If we see inflation come out and it still hasn't peaked with this next cpi data release, i think they might even be more aggressive. They initially hinted at maybe even a 75 basis, point hike uh and they took that off the table, real quick, because i think they saw how the market reacted to that didn't like it uh. But i i think that that's not off the table. I think that they may end up doing this uh.

If inflation still continues to rise, will it i don't know, i'm hoping for stagnation. I think if it's at 8.3 percent 8.5 even 8.6, that's pretty good. I think that's a sign of at least a slow down in the rise of inflation, but it is a lagging indicator. I mean it wouldn't surprise me to see that continue to rise.

I think that inflation is likely worse than we're being led on to believe, and i think that most of the market realizes this as well. So these are uncertainties right. Let's just make a list of uncertainties and what we have to sort of get rid of in the market, for people to feel pretty decently, comfortable, big things, fed's ability they want to see results. I think at this point: that's really what it comes down to is: hey we're not gon na we're, not gon na really stop uh pricing in this stuff.

Until we see that it's over fed's ability to combat whoa, i don't know what that was. That was goof. Fed's ability to combat inflation and then uh inflation itself, two big things, uncertainties right. These are the really really really huge ones right now, not a lot of talk about russia and ukraine at the moment.

That's obviously still a conflict that uh continues on and if you were to absolutely take care of that war, if that uh that war ended, that'd be a pretty big uh big big help as well. But there are a couple other things, and this is something that i mentioned before: uh elon musk sort of was talking about that. I found to be quite interesting and it was the china gdp per capita. I find this to be pretty fascinating.

Uh china is currently in a lockdown, and i was reading an article uh that kind of popped up, and it was this china scrambles to outpace u.s gdp growth amid lockdown uh report. Let me just read off a quick piece of this. As china reels from its cove 19 lockdown efforts, its leaders are scrambling to stay ahead of the united states on economic growth. China's actually growing at a faster economic pace than the united states is now.

This may seem kind of goofy because you look at the the you know: the chinese gdp per capita, it's nine thousand seven hundred and seventy one dollars right. It's drastically low in the united states, they're just sixty two seven. Ninety the difference, however, is population. China's got 1.39 billion people in the united states at 326 million, which comes out to an economy.

As such, you would take the gdp per capita. You would multiply that by the population. You get your your uh total economy of the country, 13.6 trillion for china, 20.5 trillion for united states. That's a large difference.

The united states economy is still drastically larger. However, if it continues on pace to grow, as this has sort of initially, you know been led to the state, china scrambles to outpace usgp growth amid lockdown report. If this continues on, i think this is a concern that the united states may face. That's not being talked about quite as much as it probably should uh.

I think this is a really sort of a very macro concern. I don't think if i know anything about the united states and americans. It's that we're existentialists right. We don't like to react to something until it's, it threatens our way of life, and this currently doesn't threaten our way of life.

You know it's not quite there yet so does this affect really the day to day today, uh, no, not necessarily uh, but i think three to five years from now. This is gon na, be something we're probably gon na revisit and i'll be making a video. Then i don't know: today's today is april 26, 2022 i'll revisit this i'll revisit this in three to five years time: uh and we'll see where things are at gdp per capita and economy. This is a little concerning to me.

Uh, the united states. Everything kind of goes in cycles right, the the powerhouse countries of the world, they kind of cycle and stuff uh, but but china's growing at a rate - that's that's pretty quick. I mean this. This could very very quickly sort of gap close uh before we know it and that's gon na affect uh.

You know sort of the outlook of the united states in the future and maybe some some deals uh that we get. You know how uh, who do we owe debt to? How is debt paid off uh? These are all big things. You know. Excuse me uh, which brings me into the last thing important levels for the spy i've got these hashed out.

I mean every single critical level. It is basically broken. The real oh line is right here at about 410 dollars break under 410, and i think you, you could very quickly see this drop down to 400 bucks and for 400 it'd be a nasty flush. Man that'd be gross gross gross gross gross.

We would not enjoy seeing that the first big spot that we could see a hold is 404 down from there is about 397 down from there is about 394. These are the levels i mean. That's really. It uh, which kind of brings me into the play of the day for tomorrow, and what i would personally be uh watching for for a calling for a put situation.

Uh. Let me just zoom in i'm gon na draw this out for you on on uh trading view, as i find this to be sort of the easiest way to to paint the picture. Uh there's two different scenarios, as always calls and puts right uh. If this, then that there's a four-step sort of process for me, entry, stop-loss runners exit, have a plan.

That's just my plan uh whatever yours is that's cool, but let me draw up the the two scenarios call scenario i'm going to draw in green. What i would look for is very simple push up retest as support push up entry on the retest right. That would be a call scenario to me seems pretty simple right. This critical level is going to mark out at what appears to be about uh, 415 bucks or so so.

I'd look for an entry at about 415 bucks after it breaks it. I'd want to take that re-test as an entry. Uh it'd be a pretty solid opportunity right, more likely to me uh, but we'll be prepared either way. You'll be prepared either way is uh a break down, in which case i think it would look something like this push down push up as a re-test push down, and then you would take an entry right here at that same exact level.

415.. I take retests. That's me right uh. Sometimes i miss opportunities like that.

Sometimes i don't get to get into plays because of that. I'm okay with that right. I like to have that confirmation so that i have a surefire way to identify a good entry that lines up nice with my personal plans and then i can set an easy stop loss. I know where to take my runners and then the exits is just going to be sort of the next critical levels exit here, exit here, exit here, you're just looking for clean hashes.

You know and that's a pretty clean hash that i'd personally be watching for and that's sort of the levels on the spot. Uh things look tough and i wan na i wan na give this reminder. I know this is a long video, we're already 21 minutes in i'll sort of wrap it up with this things are things are tough right now right, i'm not here to uh to pretend that things aren't tough, because it is the market's gross things. Look really bad! Uh and this affects real people's lives, your lives, uh and the stock market can sometimes be cold, and people forget that people are behind the screen at the end of the day and that real money's on the line.

So i always like to put out a reminder here. You know uh that, if you're in a spot, mentally uh or financially or physically, where you need to take a step back away from the screen uh, where you need to take money out of your account to take care of yourself, do it do it do it Do it do it? I, i can't emphasize this enough. I can't stress this enough. The the culture thing right now.

I i know that we have this idea in our minds that no matter what this is the way this has to this has to be the way, but you have to take care of you all right if you're, in a spot right now, where you are suffering. Take care of you, that's got ta happen. You can't give to others. You can't give to yourself uh.

If you have nothing to give right. Uh keep the roof over. Your head, feed yourself, make sure you're happy uh. These are all important things, so i wanted to take the time to discuss that uh and that's what i've got for this video here today, so guys until the next one.

I appreciate you tuning in things will get better. Who knows when, but this will eventually end and we'll keep you updated until then. In the meantime, much love lights, apps and peace.