Pretty interesting tweet came out today, unusual whales, tweeted. This out, i was live uh on twitch, which i am still doing by the way twitch.tv slash anti-juicer in the description box down below we're just streaming for the the the retail uh. We we, the investor, dave lauer petition for payment for overflow, but nonetheless uh breaking news, federal reserve. Reverse repos hit two trillion dollars for the first time.

Now that's a lot of money but, more importantly, we should kind of look from the top and work our way down. In the last two years, uh the federal reserve's printed off 16 trillion dollars, which comes out to about 80 percent of all money in existence and all that coming in the last two years is obviously problematic. So from that 16 trillion dollars, where do things go uh? Where did things go? How did this affect the economy and how does it affect the market that we're currently in uh? Well, one of the things that we can kind of look at to ask that question. Uh is unusual, whale's tweet and how reverse repos did hit.

Two trillion dollars so today we're gon na go over what reverse repo market is, why it's important and really what took place in the pandemic and why we are in this bear market as we are, and then we're gon na look at the spy and amc and Just give you some updates on what things look like uh, as as i do think that is important, so guys welcome to trey's trade. It's great to have you uh, i like to probably say i'm out of five financial advice. Please say they're gon na salt uh. Let's get right into it, so before we get into this uh, you know the most important thing is: what is a reverse repo market? If you go to this website, the link is fred.stewiefed.org.

However, you want to pronounce that you're going to find this, and this is the reverse repo market. It's an overnight agreement, meaning that between two parties, uh overnight, you will see a transaction take place. This values just hit 2 trillion dollars. You can see this line.

It's parabolic in comparison to everything that took place from 2017 all the way up until about 2021 back in march, which lines up, coincidentally right with the pandemic. Now this is where you should ask questions. You see a correlation right pandemic happens. Lots of money is printed.

Reverse repo market starts to increase, so we see some similarities. We see some connections that we can make so now we have to know right. What is the reverse repo market? Why is it important and what does it do? Well, the reverse repo market is a transaction uh. I've talked about this before, but in case you do not know it is between two parties.

It's between the federal reserve and it is between banks and what is being transacted in this situation is two things: money and t-bills t-bills. You can think of as treasury bills. Uh it's supposed to be a a very low risk, sort of way that you can accumulate. Uh, you know income over time, it's an investment, you can invest in t-bills and banks will do that and in the most simple way possible.

Why would they do this? There are rules and regulations that say, banks can only have x amount of money that they keep on their books right, so if they can only have x amount of money on their books. At that point, you have to start putting your money in different places. Well, the relationship that takes place in reverse repo agreement, this overnight repurchase agreement, is right on the website. I'm gon na read this off to you check this out uh.

In this instance, you have treasury securities sold by the federal reserve, which means that the banks are the buyers, the the the fed being the sellers here, uh in the temporary open market operation. So here come back over to the whiteboard. What's happening, then, is they're selling t-bills the banks are sending them over money right now, we've established that uh. This tells us one sort of intrinsic thing, and that is that banks have a lot of money on their books.

If banks have a lot of money on their books and they're buying these t-bills with it well, where they get the money from that brings us back to what i've mentioned before and how we hit two trillion dollars in the the fed. Put it off a bunch of money, the timeline is what's concerning here. This is really uh uh, indicative of where a lot of funds have gone and uh. Why? I think the inflationary concerns that we're facing right now are so uh dramatic, and it's because it didn't go into things that are actually helping the economy.

You know back to to retail blue-collar workers or back to local businesses or back to uh infrastructure. It went to banks, banks sit on money, big institutions set of money and, more importantly, probably most importantly, the rich sit on money. So here's uh here's something that i find very interesting. America's one percent got way richer during the pandemic.

We need a one-time wealth tax. I'm not gon na get into that as political uh to help rebuild the country. What you're gon na find here is that the top one percent of americans made a drastic, drastic amount of money during the pandemic during quarantine and during lockdowns. Perhaps no facet of inequality has grown more dramatically than wealth and i would agree with this.

The 15 richest americans have become over 400 billion dollars richer since the markets bottomed out in march of 2020.. Meanwhile, a year-long bull market triggered by the cares, acts passage at the market trough and supported since then by a series of government rescues has added roughly 4.8 trillion dollars of wealth to the richest 1 of american households uh the top one percent gained over seven trillion Dollars a lot of money, it's a ton of money and we come back and we think about well: where did this money come from? Well, if we want to talk about, you know how much banks have made and how much they're holding on to - and you know sixteen trillion dollars being printed off. Well, where did it go where'd it go because i'll tell you what it's not it's not to us! It's not the economy, because inflation has just proven the point. Inflation can be managed in a very healthy way if money is getting pushed into the right things if it's actually helping the economy grow, but it's not it's being hoarded, it's being held on to and it's in the wrong hands to help boost the economy.

And that brings me back to the overall point that i'm trying to make here why this tweet is is concerning, and this is, this number is concerning federal. Reverse repos hit two trillion dollars for the first time. Banks have that much money because it was handed to them by the fed, and this is a a core piece of really what's problematic, with the economy right now with the stock market. It's why we are in this bear market that we're in uh and why this spy has been doing what it's doing and why all stocks have been doing what it's doing.

Uh, including amc, including amc, amc, uh spy, is green by six percent. Today, i'm gon na get a little bit of ta after this uh amc is down about three point: nine one percent, but if you want to get to the meat potatoes of it, this is one of uh. The many faceted sort of branches of the tree that have influenced why uh the market is reacting. The way that it is it's because inflation's bad.

It's because money's not going to the right hands of individuals that actually need the money, because the wage gap is growing because the the the net worth gap is growing. It's because the the housing market has been pumped to unrealistic numbers. It's because massive amounts of leverage have been pumped into uh derivatives and stocks that doesn't even exist because it's been rehabilitated and lent out back and forth, and back and forth and pissed punk piss punk piss, pointing back and forth to a million people. You know it's it's a matter of money that should not exist or does not exist, and i say it does not exist because that's kind of how leverage and margin works so uh.

I want to be able to point that out. It's pretty freaking crazy. It's goofy! Uh and then i'm just gon na finish this off with some charts spy amc uh. I want to touch on this just briefly.

I do think that the spy is in for a small uh bounce before you see a continuation to the downside, because i do think the continuation to the downside is coming uh, but not until a rally. The spy has had seven straight red weeks. Now i don't know if the week's gon na end green, but this is an interesting statistic given that during the the covid crash and back during 2008 that we didn't have seven straight red weeks, right uh, i do think you're going to see a little bit of Relief and a little bit of a rally, but i don't think it's the end and i always come back to the one same true thing and that's that uh, the the fundamentals of the economy have not yet changed. If you were to walk up to somebody on the street and ask them a question say what do you, which direction you think the market's going they're going to say pretty simple to you probably down? Why well i'll tell you why it's because everything's right now it is that's the absolute truth, but i'm gon na lay out some levels for you.

I'm gon na show you this on uh the daily time frame in terms of what i think is going to happen. I believe - and this is based on the kovic crash - this is based on the 2008 housing market crash that you are going to get a bounce off of this fibonacci, which is a 382 up to the 236 before you get uh a cella. The way that i trace, these is very simple: you take the bottom uh of of a dump to the top of a rally and that'll give you fib levels, and if you come back over here, you can see the same thing comes down to the 382 and You get a bounce up to the 236 and i think the exact same thing's gon na happen again. His three doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme uh quite frequently, and we just tapped down on that 382.

I believe that you're gon na watch it come up to the to the the two three six now the last time we got a rally in the bear market. It lasted uh for about 11ish trading days, and we rallied about 11 percent uh to come up to the 236 would be a nine percent rally. It was to take place in the same period of time. That would mean you get a green week.

It'd be a pretty solid opportunity and a pretty good thing to see and that's my prediction: am i going to be right? I don't know this is based on technical analysis. I've been writing about some things wrong about some things uh, but i find it pretty realistic and that can be good news for other names like amc and gamestop and meme stocks and whatever you want to call it as amc is in a very similar situation. You know you look at the chart, it's hanging on to this 1158 level, pretty much square on the nuts uh and if it can bounce off this along with a spy that gives a little bit of relief uh as as you're waiting for things to happen. Uh, the last thing i'll say you know, is until fundamentals change the fundamentals of the economy change a little bit.

You know we have to see some improvement, some improvements in inflation, some improvement in in spending within the economy. We've had a lot of misses on earnings of key core companies, walmart target being two really sort of lower class mid-class american citizens. You know uh spending is going down a little bit and that tells us that we need to see things change things get more affordable or americans making more money, which means you got to pay people a little more a little bit more so uh we'll see what Happens, that's my thoughts uh. I still think we're in a bear market.

I think it's gon na be a bear market rally or a leaf rally, and then you're gon na continue down uh back to this fib level at about 380 and then we'll test 350. After that, if it can't hold so uh in the meantime i'll leave you with this i'll, remind you of this in a bear market, the winners are the buyers and the losers are the sellers it's easy to get caught up in the fear. It's easy to get caught up in the mania uh, because everything's, just panic, panic, panic, the world's ending the banks have so much money, the fed's just going to print more money, we're going to get hit by the goddamn sun. But i tell you all right.

I tell you this uh with high confidence. There's two scenarios here: either a uh the market never recovers, in which case hey, you bought the dip and you lost, but guess what everybody lost, because at that point it's anarchy or b. You buy the dip in a market, uh market crash and you make money a couple years down the road uh. So that's what i've got for you.

I appreciate y'all tuning in uh. I am live streaming right now on twitch.tv anti-juicers. So if you go description box down below click on that link, uh, you can hop on in we're on day three uh and we got one more one more day to go so it'd be great to have. You here appreciate y'all as always much lovely taps and peace.