What's up you bunch of beautiful chickens, it's your boy trey! Back again, you might notice i'm not wearing a hat and uh. You know why that is is because my hair is falling at the length now where it does, it doesn't have that freaking. That line cut across it. I've got these nice.

Ladies in town, uh the place is called glory barbershop. I call it the glory, hole, barbershop and uh they're, usually pretty nice, but they they cut a line, and i look kind of dumb but anyways with. That being said, welcome back to trace traders where we could talk fast and let's get classical buffalo. First of all experts, so they're gon na say the greatest salt.

Let's get into the video today, we've actually got a decent amount to discuss the last two days. I've spent a lot of time sort of going over my theory and diving into the nitty-gritty of uh. What i think is a pretty interesting theory and i've not been able to touch on some things that i'd like to discuss. So here's the agenda for the day you might hear my dishwasher in the background.

I apologize for that uh we're gon na talk about the discord stage, starting tomorrow, 2 pm central standard time. This will take place in my discord. I'll go over the details here in a little bit and then, as you can tell by the title of the video i've got dave lauer on the terminal written on here, because he's actually throwing together something pretty cool that i'd like to be able to discuss. That.

Could actually uh inflict some change in the stock market and at least get the attention from uh gary gensler, gary genslaw, who the is gary ginz and the sec uh? Maybe get the sex attention uh? If you get it, you got it then we're gon na go over amy uh, that's ticker symbol, amc the levels reversal versus continuation. I personally believe that you're more likely to see a reversal based on where the the chart is currently sitting right now, which is great. That's about it, it's not gon na be nice. It's gon na be nice to see that reversal flip around, and this is, i think, largely in part due to the spy uh we've said this before, but amy uh typically moves alongside the broad market.

If the broad market's going up amy typically goes up, if the broad market's going down uh amy typically goes down outside of a couple different asterix points, and in order to really understand where i think the midterm stock market's going meaning the next one to two months. I think we have to discuss uh the recent fed minutes. I haven't been able to discuss this yet, but the two big takeaways for me that that kind of uh inflicted some fear at least like a knee-jerk gut punch reaction, was taxes of a 50-point hike and a 95 billion dollar runoff uh that they plan on. You know sort of achieving within the next three months, so i'm gon na give you my thoughts on that as well as levels of future movement of the spy and then we're gon na get into the play of the day for tomorrow, which is tesla.

So with all that being said, let's not waste any more time. Let's get right into it. We're starting off here with the discord in case you're not familiar. My discord is a free spot where typically people are able to pay attention to a couple different alerts and stuff.

We've got 921 1348 williams alligator on three minute: five minute. One hour time frames uh, but that's not even what i'd like to discuss right. What i'd like to discuss is what i have going on tomorrow, if you're coming to the discord, there's a link in the description box down below you'll find that there is something under trace hub called the tray q a and what the purpose of this is is To give an opportunity for you guys to have conversation to express opinions and uh feel hurt. You know i might be blind in my left eye, but i'm certainly not deaf bad joke, but uh.

The purpose of this truly is, i can see, there's a lot of people who who have various opinions. Regarding the theory that i put out right - and i expected this - i really did i expected there to be some some knee-jerk reactions and for people not to necessarily agree with me and, in fact, to make me be angry with me and that's okay. I accept that. I expected that uh by putting that out there, so what i would like to be able to do is have a spot where we can have open conversation and dialogue uh together and discuss whatever you'd like to talk about.

This will be time for you to feel heard to express opinions to have a conversation. Uh and, most importantly, you know, learn step away from this feeling like we as people grew a little bit because that's ultimately, what i care about you know is progression of uh. Our community progression of our community to be smarter to make more money to have conversations to to to learn to grow together. That's really it for me! So, if you'd like to join, they will be tomorrow at 2 p.m: central standard time, which is 3 p.m.

Eastern uh standard time and i'll, be there i'll be there if you want to have a conversation, all that i ask is that you uh you'd, be respectful towards everybody in the audience. If you have anger and frustration towards me have had it man, you can kick me straight in the donkeys lucky for you. My dong is made out of steel uh, but just be be respectful. Everybody else.

That's all i'd ask for then we're gon na talk about uh dave, lauer right, dave, lauer has actually tweeted something out, which i find to be interesting. As you can see by the title of the video. I think this could actually cause some change in the stock market or, at the very least, get the attention of the sec and gary gensler check this out. I'm gon na leave a link to his twitter in the description box down below we tweeted this out today.

Today, we, the investors, take two big steps forward. First, we have put together a vision and roadmap, for we hope this grassroots movement. Three four markets can become it's time to take back our markets. Second, this is what really gets me excited it's time to, let the sec know who we are and what we care about.

The sec responds to public pressure and we need to let them know how many investors truly care about. These issues read and sign our letter to gary gensler. Now this, i think, could actually make some real change. The last that i had checked, if you come in you check out the terminals twitter page.

What you're going to see is that this has been signed by 35 000 people. 35 000 people give a about the way uh the market's sort of operating right now, and you know actually, therefore, the lack of operating in the market, the lack of efficiency in the market, and if you want to make your voice heard, if you really want to Get the attention of gary gensler and the sec to make change in the way that everything operates and allows for off exchange trading to to take over 70 percent of volume on any given day basis for for amc, if you want to fix the problems with the Options chain with derivatives, with the way that market makers can move the system. You want to be able to change latency arbitrage if you want to be able to change level, twos and sort of uh, the the ping pong back and forth of 100 bit and ask spreads that algorithms will use to to push price up or down whatever direction. They want this is your way to get attention.

I can't understate this if we can actually get as retail investors as apes the attention of the sec. This is a positive change. This could be something that can really make a difference, and - and i i want to express that - i think that this is worth your time if you are interested and there are 35 000 people that are interested, i'm interested dave's interested 35 000 other people are, and If you are uh, just take the time to check this out and uh and sign off on this letter, so i want to be able to discuss that. I think it's pretty cool.

That brings me into amy i'd like to briefly discuss amc and where it's currently sitting right now, because it is actually at a reversal point in my personal opinion. Now, if you were to look at this, you have to be able to buy into the theory that technical analysis is able to price in manipulation. That technical analysis is a representation of where stocks may go in the future, and i personally believe that amc is in what is called a falling wedge setup. This is typically a sign of an upcoming bullish reversal.

You can see here a downside level of resistance and a downside level of support. They are riding along sort of the same lines as as time goes by here and uh. What typically happens is when it tightens up, because this is sort of at a spring load. Point right now, you can think of this, essentially as loading a spring as it bounces back and forth back and forth back and forth between these levels is a push to the upside out of that specific spring loading spot.

You know, there's a tightening and a condensing and price action, and off of that i would expect to move up. I'm also going to go over the bear situation. There is a possibility here, but i would say eight or nine times out of ten uh on a falling wedge like this. You typically have a reversal to the upside.

These are hourly candles, which would mean you could expect some form of reversal in the same sort of time frame the hourly time frame uh to follow through on that, and i think the big level of resistance is you're going to be watching for us right here. At about 22 bucks 22 was a pretty key level uh when we broke over 22 dollars before the run up to about 34. At the peak right here i came with a large large large large move. Now we're gon na get the exact same move here.

I don't think necessarily so, but it is going to set you up to start consolidation. Uh start base laying and potentially continue to leg up, as things continue to move. I mentioned this before i'll say it again. I think that amc has a lot of different factors that tie into this.

You know i've obviously talked very long on options and how options, i think, influence the price of amc, but the spy also influences the price of amc uh, as well as any small mid cap companies that move around. You can look at the spy and see that it's down typically small, mid cap companies are going to have a much further exacerbated fall than the spy will, just because they're weaker by the books, whatever algorithms will sell them a little more strongly than they previously would Have uh the spy i think is gon na have a turnaround and i think that's going to influence this potential for a move back up, so i'd be watching for that 22 mark, you get a bounce off of uh. You know this. This wedge, you break out of that.

Come up to 22. I think you can see some nice movement. The bear case scenario to me. There is a small gap if we were to take that one or two times out of 10, where this falling wedge typically doesn't move up.

I find this to be pretty unlikely uh. You could end up seeing this drop down to what appears to be about 18 and 40 cents. That's the bottom of this very, very, very small, little wedge that has been filled in the past, but they can fill again. So you could see that you could see this drop down about 1840 before uh.

It eventually gets its move up and it came pretty dang close to that uh actually today. So who knows maybe we'll avoid it? Maybe we won't. I find it more likely that you get a reversal off of this falling wedge. I think this is looking pretty solid uh and i'm pretty satisfied with the way that amy's sort of set up uh for the time being so i'm i'm leaning towards the reversal.

I think you really will see a reversal on amy you you're, going to see this uh stars start to move back into that uh that direction that that apes, like which is uh the banana right. I like to i'd like to color a a banana. It looks something like this right, big old, tasty banana. You got this, this stem up on top, i don't know if that looks like a stem or maybe like a butt plug or something but uh.

Nonetheless, i think it's possible. I think i think you're looking pretty likely if i had to give a sort of a confidence level, let's say like a six or a seven. This is typically pretty standard by the books. Ta uh we're a falling wedge.

You'd expect some form of reversals. So that brings me to the spy. This is what would sort of hold things back if the spy has more downside, more red, this will likely not happen for amc. The spy is red, amc will continue to be red and it's no secret.

It's no surprise that the spy for the last couple of days has been red. It's been red and it's been struggling to to keep things up and uh because of that amc has been down. That's that's. That's really a large piece of why i think that amc and gamestop have been struggling here for the last couple of days.

I think the spy is actually at an interesting point and i think that it found a nice bottom which you can see here is a picture perfect nasty, filthy disgusting. You already know what it is nasty, george w i mean this is a double bottom. This is beautiful. This is a sign of what could be a bottom and a reversal to come back up to what would be the top of what i would call a falling bull flag now.

What does that mean? You have an upside huge flagpole right here, followed by a descending level of resistance, descending level of support, and it's routing sort of this uptrend from way back here. You can see this touch point right here. There's a touch point right here: i'm just gon na circle. Them so you can see it touch.

Point touch point touch point. It's riding that pretty closely and i think that you could see a bounce coming off of that uh. The reason i think you're inclined to see it bounce, at least until cpi data comes out which is coming up relatively soon we will discuss. That is because i think that they have priced in the initial shock of uh.

The fed minutes talk. They talked about two big things that i find to be worthwhile uh. To mention i see that my my camera is froze. Let me just fix this quick.

This is my second time recording this by the way uh the first time, my my my camera deactivated. It froze like three times and my mic muted itself, so that was kind of whack i'll fix this real quick, but they discussed two big things. I think they discussed uh, the 50 point hike and they discussed a 95 billion runoff. So what does this mean? Right rate hikes typically are meant to combat inflation.

This is a hawkish stance, uh compared to a dovish stance, meaning they would like to tighten the economy. They want to make it less accessible to get money uh, which is supposed to combat inflation by the books right. They originally had a 25 point hike which is drastically different than a 50.. A 50 point hike is very aggressive.

This is actually drastically different than the approach that the federal reserve and jerome powell j pop pow pow uh. If i, if i was to say jay powell, has got the sort of the the uh, the shooting accuracy of a storm trooper from star wars, man uh - that was a dumb joke. If you laughed at that, you know all right, i'm just gon na i'm gon na continue on, but a 50 point leg is more aggressive. They actually stated that they would have done this previously.

If russia, ukraine, uncertainty, wasn't as bad as it was uh. The 95 billion dollar runoff is sort of easing away from buying assets, which is what the fed has been doing for a long time. You can actually think about the stock market as as one big major squeeze as the fed bought a lot of assets. The the rate of growth was sort of inflated, so inflation wasn't quite priced in yet stocks were going through all ridiculous rips.

The spy had one of the best years. It's had in a very long time in 2020 and 2021 it just it grew. Like a. I mean it looked fantastic and a lot of this was because of a very dovish stance by the fed.

They were buying assets. Uh, religiously, i mean you would have thought these guys were a freaking hedge fund, the way that they're they're buying up stocks uh and they didn't really need. You know they didn't have the 50 point hikes yet so what this is going to do is sort of step back a little bit and, in my personal opinion, they're being a little too aggressive, i think they're being a little too aggressive uh. I don't necessarily agree with this.

I think a better thing to do would have been to start raising rates, maybe four or five months ago, a 50-point hike to have a 25-point hike, and then we haven't even seen the april cpi data. Yet you're just kicking people straight in the dong and i think you got to get a little more time to see how a 25 point hike is going to do, but nonetheless, i'm going to go over. What i think is the more likely situation if they are to do it. I mentioned before that the 50-point hike is something they've been considering they haven't done yet because of russian ukraine, so uh.

What would be the reasoning why? Why would they decide to actually raise it by 50 points and what would that do to the the stock market? I think russia, ukraine, if the conflict ends, i think they will. They will do a 50 point hike. Why? Because the uncertainty is gone, they think that the tolerance is going to be a little higher from the economy from the united states from the stock market. I think that the fed's going to view this as the people are going to be more willing to absorb a little more pain if there's less pain at the pump.

If there's less pain on the news, if there's less uh, you know bad things happening in the world. Second thing is: if inflation in april is, is not stagnant or down. If inflation continues higher in april, when we get the new cpi data, i think you should expect a 50-point hike. I don't think it's the right call uh, but i think that's the the route and the level of hawkishness that the fed is sort of taking right.

Now, despite whether it's a good thing to do or not, i don't think this is necessarily the right move, but i think this is the way that their mindset is currently running right now, uh and, if i was to sort of you know analyze the market's reaction To this 50 point hike in the 95 billion runoff, i think it's just volatile. I think that the overall generalized trend, as many would probably agree, is up. I don't think a lot of us think that we're still in a bear market that you're still going to see continuation of the downside, at least for the next couple of months or so uh. But there is a huge amount of volatility.

The vix, which is sort of what i would call the fear index uh, has seen monstrous spikes up and down and to me this is a measurement of volatility, and this is coming from the the fed and j pal flip-flopping too much. I've said this a million times, but my least favorite thing about jerome powell and the fed. Is they 180 their stances all the time i mean i feel like you can get a read for whatever he's saying and then a week later he just says that, and he just does something else like he. He said he's gon na, take a very passive, slow approach to battling inflation and all of a sudden they're just laying down the goddamn 18-inch dong.

Do they they want to. They want to really attack inflation for some reason, uh, which i think they they probably will do in one of these two situations: 95 billion runoff easing away from buying assets. This is obviously going to again, i think, give a knee-jerk reaction. I think what you're going to witness and to translate this volatility? What i think that means is, whenever there's bad news, quote-unquote that comes out which which transitions uncertainty then into certainty, uh situations, what you're going to witness is harsh sell-offs followed by bounces.

I think this is what you're going to see you're going to see a huge knee-jerk reaction, followed by a slow recovery, backup to me what this means is either flat months or very slow growth. I think you're gon na witness slower growth, because there's gon na be a lot of these knee-jerk reactions over the next couple of months, uh at least for the spy, at least for large cap companies. I think small, mid cap. There is a rotation happening and i don't think that a lot of hedge funds and big money guys are going to enjoy the slower growth that's taking place within the spy uh, with all these different knee-jerk reactions taking place.

I think that it's just going to take some time here see slower growth than we've seen in a little while in these these value stocks, but i do still think you're going to be seeing green. It's just gon na be a lot of volatility and a lot of knee-jerk gut punch reactions off of uh some goofy stuff. My personal opinion, i think, if you're looking at the levels on the spy right now and sort of gauge, where we're headed, uh you're, taking a break back into this uh. This uh sort of falling bull flag, which i find to be good.

And what would be an ideal scenario to me? An ideal situation is if the spy comes back down to retest the bottom of this flag and then come back up to eventually break it, a transition from underneath to on top what you want to see. Ideally, is this bounce this bounce right here is going to be really key, a bounce off of the bottom of that that falling bull flag, i think, is going to show that you could see some continuation and some slow growth back to the upside. So i'm watching for that, i think, there's a real possibility there. I think that amc will be green if the spy is green and i think this spy is going to be green over the next two or three months along with iwm.

I do just think it's gon na be volatile. I think you're gon na see a lot of knee-jerk reactions. I think that the fed's gon na open their mouth a lot and uh we're gon na have to absorb some pain, as, as things continue to move along. That brings me into my last piece, which is play of the day tomorrow, and that is tesla now.

What is contingent on tesla and what's nice about tesla, actually is tesla's, usually pretty strong in terms of holding its own. If the spy is having weakness, uh, sometimes the tesla's holding up the spy all on its own and we're where tesla is right now and if you guys aren't familiar with my play of the day sort of setups. What i'm going to give you is an if this, then that sort of situation. If this, then that, for both calls and for puts, a call, is a bet that you think the stock is going to go up.

You uh you upfront money, you go long uh and then you get paid when you sell. So it's a it's. A buy now sell later sort of situation same way. They put you go long on a bet that the stock will go down.

You pay up front. You get paid on the back end, buy to open, sell the clothes for both of these situations. Long calls long puts i'm leaning towards cost. I think calls are a pretty likely situation here and i think tesla is set up very nicely to see some continuation to the upside.

If you were to take this and look at this as an asterisk right sort of a false breakout right, this is how i would view the current setup on tesla, as you have a flag formed up, followed by a false breakout or the very least dependent right. We're independent for sure uh. What i think you can see is a possibility is a breakout over this overall pennant or triangle sort of setup, uh we're primed for a very nice. So you got a double bottom on the hourly candles right here.

It's holding up on this upside level of support. It's hanging right beneath this downside level of resistance, and if the spy is green tomorrow, i think you're gon na see tesla absolutely crush to me uh. If you wanted to draw these levels up yourself, all you got ta do is go to the hourly time frame. Connect the dots! That's here! That's here! That's here! That's here! Right! Other side! That's that's! That's! That's! It touches you're just connecting the dots you're, making those touch points you're, creating those levels and what i'm watching for very closely is a breakout over this level followed by, and this is very key, a bounce back off of that level.

The transition from resistance to support, if you see that transition from resistance to support, i would take an entry on that transitionary period right there and you may not get it right most of the time. I think you do most of the time you get those those bounces. If you wanted to take a more aggressive approach, uh you could certainly do that. You could just take the breakout, but the breakout you're more likely to get faked out so take that for what it is, there's more risk associated.

If you don't wait to see if that's actual follow-through a put to me would be the exact opposite situation. A put - and i will draw this in blue to me - is going to be if it tries to break above this level right here and it rejects off this level, and it comes back down a rejection off of this level. This downside level of support to me you can see it drop all the way down to what appears to be about uh, 1033 or so currently, trading at you know uh much higher than that 1057.. So that's a lot of downside.

I mean 20 bucks. The downside is, it sounds pretty crazy, but if it rejects off that, we've seen those knee-jerk reactions in the past, and i found that to be less likely uh to begin with, so i've been watching for tesla, i think tesla you get this breakout over this uh. This triangle: it gets a bounce off of the top of that previous resistance. Now, acting as support you take an entry on a call there and you're.

Looking pretty good i'd, be looking for a gap. Fill the gap. Filler come up to about a thousand dollars. Uh, a thousand eighty eight dollars or so i'll draw a level right there.

Just so you can see it uh. They need to be watching for sort of this flat top at about 113 bucks. 11. 13.

You know pretty pretty unlikely in a single day, but it could happen. Tesla's got some massive dong energy, it's had big momentum in the past and it certainly could uh could do it again. Put there's the gap down. You know.

It's pretty well filled this gap. Yeah. There's not really much of a gap here, but you could see it come all the way down to this triangle. If it was to break beneath the triangle, i would probably be watching for uh this flat top.

I think it would likely hold it that flat top. I find that put to be less likely. I think the calls are more likely i'd personally be watching for that. I think it looks pretty solid uh and that's sort of what i've got for the uh the levels for today you know for the the the risk assessment right for the four steps that i always try to teach uh there's a four-step process for me.

If i'm gon na take any trade and it's very simple, it's entry exit, stop loss and runners, so in in order it would be entry, stop loss, runners, runners, meaning you're, taking profits along the way and then an exit. This would be your full exit out of the position entry we've designated, where we would like an entry to be i'm just going to unfreeze my camera, quick uh, stop loss. I always keep between 10 and 15 percent. 10 to 15 is a pretty safe approach for a stop loss.

If that's what you would like to do, there we go runners, i take every quarter. I take uh, i take runners off the table, meaning maybe a quarter of my position at about 25 percent profit. Another quarter at about 50 profit another quarter about 75.. Then you take off the rest at there and then at full exit.

You know i'd just be watching for these specific levels so i'll be watching for that have a plan. Failure to plan is planning to fail and that's what i've kind of got for this video. So i think you're gon na be watching a pretty good turnaround. Friday.

Uh, i think the only thing that's really gon na hold that back is if there's some pretty poor news that comes out from the fed or from uh the you know, mainstream media. So that's what i've got for you guys. Hopefully that was a valuable video catch. Y'All, the next one appreciate you much lovely taps and peace.