Good morning you, fellow freaking apes, how are we doing? How are we doing this morning? It is good to be back welcome to trace trades. We have technical analysis and different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy holders to sell opinions on these. Given stocks like the premise by saying that i'm not a financial, advisor and or expert, don't take what you say: the grain of salt, let's get into the video now today we're going to be walking you through my process, my personal process on finding a good swing. Trade now, what does this mean? What are we? What are we going to do? Well, we've got to kind of outline here for you there's four steps for me that help me identify a great swing trade and, to give you a little bit of a a fact check right, see, uh.

Why would i care what you have to say man? What what's uh? What's your? What's your advice, you know: what's your cup of tea, how many good trades have you made? You can come back to my channel and look way back in the day before before afc was ever existing and you can see that we've hit quite a few good ones. I mean, i think we had vera back when it was trading at six bucks and it's going it got as high as 20. uh. We ended up hitting neo pretty well, we had fubo pretty well, we hit idx, pretty well microvision.

Obviously, uh we got into bngo jagex uh, there's quite a few fuel cell back when fuel cell was training at nine or ten dollars. We started talking about this stock bng, oh, as you can see, yeah there's there's a ton of them which we've done pretty well. Palin's here as well uh, we touched on that and just talked about it. So we've got quite a few good stocks.

We've talked about on this channel and i feel pretty confident in my methodology. So i'm just going to walk you through my process. This is a way not the only way that i helped to hit some good swing trades so with without further ado, let's get into the video baby, all right. So there's four steps for me: right: we've got id which is identification plan.

Oh, that was not even close to an arrow funny. Looking arrow silly chicken arrow we've got planning execution and then aar, which stands for after actions, review we're gon na walk you through each one of these steps and show you exactly what i'm talking about so identification. This is the first step of the process is finding a stock that you think is going to be having the potential for a good swing trade. Now, funnily enough, i'm actually going to be making a video about aese.

As i do see, this has some good potential. Now, what are some things that i'm looking for with the identification? First, i think it's important to note the indicators that i use to help identify a good swing trade, and that is the 200 ema and the 15 day ma. I look at volume as well, as you know, the rsi to some extent relative strength index and then i look for some sort of rumor or expected news catalyst. It's the old saying, buy the rumor sell the news right.

That is a perfect opportunity for a good swing trade. So with that being said, you obviously also want a good amount of strength and a short setup. You want to be able to buy it at a low price, sell it at a higher price. It makes too much sense right.

So, with that being said, i've got the 15 day m8 and the 200 ema pulled up here. 15 ma. Is this blue trend line? I'm actually gon na get rid of this uh, the v watt, because that's not really important for swing trading and the 200 ema is this purple trend line. So the 15 day ma is a 15 day price action based valuation trend line which gives you the idea of the average price valuation over that 15-day moving period or a microscopic time frame.

The 200-day ema is the exponential moving average. This is a price, action-based valuation trend line over a 200-day moving period, which gives us a macroscopic perspective of the overall price action right. However, you have this 15 day ma that is trading above the 200 ema. That indicates that the most recent price action is more bullish than it has been in the last 200 days.

Vice versa, if it's trading, underneath that 200 ema that'll tell you it's more bearish than we've seen over the last 200 days now, with that in mind, you can use these two trend lines to help predict upcoming bullish moves right. You can see that right here. You can see we've got the 15 day ma about to hook up towards that 200 em, and this is one of the exact things that i look for, which is box number one 200 ema and the 15 day ma. So what i look for is this 15 day m a the moving average to cross over this 200 day ema.

Now? What is that going to look like you would see right here, maybe in the next trading day. If this continues to be bullish, you would see this 15 day ma start to cross over this 200 ema as such, while that 200 ema continues to be a little bit flat, lined right, because it takes longer for the 200 dma to move some price action as It is taking a much larger time frame for that weighing of the overall price action right. So if you get that crossover with a 15-day ma with a 200 ema, that's usually a pretty good entry point into a stock for validation right if you were to get into aesc back when the 15 ma crossed over the 200 dma. For the first time back here, it would have been about 2.47.

You would have entered at what appears to be about two dollars and 46 cents right. You've got a hard candle push a wide range candle bar that moves up over the 200 ema. 15. M8.

You know crosses over with it there's a little bit of consolidation, a little bit of stair stepping right higher low higher low higher low higher low until it ultimately reached a high of 4.54 cents. Now, if you sold that, if you'd swung swing traded this this play, you would have doubled up your money in what about seven or eight trading days right. So that's a perfect, perfect setup, but that's not the only piece of the puzzle that we look at right. Another thing that you're looking for is unusual trading volume and that's number two on the box of things that we look for is a spike in trading volume.

I don't want to catch a parabolic move right. That's not what i mean when i say a spike in volume. What i mean is a slight bump in volume that is unusual to the typical trading patterns, which we did in fact have here right. So if you look at this right here, you get a little bump in trading volume and in comparison to the previous three trading days, i would say even four training days, because that's a pretty massive sell-off.

It was unusual trading volume right. It's not typical for the stock, and typically you see that if there's there's some sort of know-how or people that are seeing the opportunity for a good swing trade right, so you don't want to see a random crossover that 15 ma over the 200ma. You also want this, this big bump in volume to help drive some price action, because that's typically going to indicate that it's not just a false breakout. You don't want to you, don't want a parabolic move.

I do want like 20 or 30 or 40 times higher volume. That's uh! That's that's! Not it just a small bump right! I would say this is maybe two three four five times as high as the previous day, and if we look at the daily candles, this would have been on the 11th compared to the 10th. We can see how much of a difference there actually was right. So, coming back here to the 11th of march, you can see that we had about 6 million in volume in comparison to 2.6 million volumes, so about a double up or so in volume which to me indicates hey.

That is a pretty good entry point into this stock. That is an opportunity to get into this and play it off pretty well as a good swing trade. So that's number two right number three you're looking for rumor or expected news now with this stock. What do we end up having? Well? There was quite a bit of awesome, freaking news that came up.

They ended up getting a a an offer for a deal with a company for a, i wouldn't say merger, but you know hold on. Let me find this article really quick all right so here it is allied esports revised proposal from bally's corp constitutes a superior proposal under the company's pending uh stk purchase agreement with element partners, so they ended up getting an offer from bali's corporation for a proposition to Be bought out by this company right, they offered about 100 million dollars. They ended up changing that offer and that drove some pretty solid price action right, so you're going to want to dig into what is some expected news here? What is the rumor i would. This is probably a good time to dig into reddit to stock twits and see what people are expecting out of the stock right, um dig into the meat potatoes.

If you can find some sort of rumor to ride, you can ride that rumor until the news comes out and sell, the freaking news make some good freaking cash right on the flip side. You know those are the three things that i specifically look for. It's it's very easy. You've got 200 dma.

15. M8. You want that crossover. You want that bump in volume.

You are an expected, rumor or or news to be on the horizon, and on top of that, the stronger the chart setup is and the stronger of a trend you see the better off you're going to be so. You know, for example, here you've got that 15 mma crossing over the 200ma on the one month chart right so on a somewhat microscopic time frame. You've got a pretty good setup. Well, if you look at this on the daily candles, what do we have in comparison? You've got also a very solid trend.

We see that it dips, it runs it dips, it runs it dips, it'll most likely run again right, and we see this pattern repeat over and over and over and over one two, three four five six seven times and over the last. You know two three months or so it's done the same sort of swingable pattern and if it continues to ride this trend, of course, we can't predict the future. We can only look at previous trends and assume uh the best that they'll do the same. You can ride that same trend again, so aese is a great opportunity for a good swing trade, and this is a good example for something that i'm looking for now.

Let's look at the daily candles right. What do we have here? Well, you've got a small bump in volume, 1.9 million uh in comparison to 2.4 million. It looked higher on that on the daily on the other candles, but um. You would wait until that next day to see if that you get the crossover anyways, because that is where you're going to see the opportunity, for you know, people to get the same sort of feedback loop, and what do i mean by that? There are other people.

Looking for exactly what i'm looking for in a swing trade, they want to see that bullish momentum continue before they start to dabble in this for a good swing trade opportunity. So those are the three things that i look for. We can move into the next step. Right, which is the plan you want to plan three basic things you want to plan the entry you want to plan the exit and a risk reward ratio as well as a stop loss.

Now? What do i mean by this? The risk reward ratio we'll get into here in a second we're going to start off here with the entry. So you want to formulate a plan right we're sitting here right now saying: okay aesc looks like it has a pretty good swing trade opportunity uh. What's gon na end up coming to fruition from this, where should i get into the stock for the best potential bang for my buck? Well, i look at two potential ways that you can play out. You know different swing trades.

You can play it as a break. Uh break resistance or a momentum plate where you wait for a specific move to be made, and then you play that move or b. You look for the bottom. You want to buy dips right, buy dip, sell, rips, there's two different ways: you can play it and one's a little bit more risky than the other right.

So it's a little bit risky to play. Break momentum plays and what i mean by that is okay. So right here you could have broke. You could have played this as a break resistance play.

You could have bought in right here about 280. You would be up right now, you'd be up about 15 cents. However, if you get false breaks over descending levels of resistance, you know there's that risk that you run in which it'll continue to pull back, and it could have been a false breakout, especially since it wasn't a hard move right. You could also play it a second way which is as a level of resistance break or as they buy the dip plate.

So what do we see here? You've got an ascending level of support if it ends up breaking this ascending level of support which, by the way, you're looking for at least three touch points to validate any level of support, which we do in fact have right. You can see one two, three, four five different touch points or you can see that we have another level of support down here at what appears to be about two dollars and sixty nine cents or so now, if it breaks this any level of support. You've got this this this this horizontal level right here at 269, which you can play as an entry point. If you get a hard bounce, something similar to this right, a hard bounce off that level of support.

You can play that off as a good dip trade and a continuation for that 15 ma over the 200 ema right. But what you got to keep in mind is if it does end up dipping you're gon na end up seeing this 15 m8 start to pull back a little bit right. It'll change the time frame for what you expect to see that 15 mm push over the 200 ema. So it could extend your swing trade um more often than not.

I find that i play brake uh brake resistance plays here, but you want to see hard moves and what do i mean by that is an hourly candle. This is an hour candle time frame right here. You can see in the bottom of my screen. You want to see an hourly candle that opens and closes above this level of resistance.

You don't want to catch false breaks. Now. Look at this as an example right, if you were to play this, this is a picture-perfect bull trap right here now i got this. It tested out this level of resistance at 305 had a false break over that level.

Resistance at about 312 and pulled back. It is 100 worth it. I promise you to wait that hour to make sure that you are not buying into a false breakout right. So if you get an hourly candle that opens and closes above a level of resistance, you can play that as a break.

The resistance break momentum play because you're playing this for a couple days, anyways right. It's a swing trade, so you know, look, look and identify what you're looking to do. Are you trying to buy a dip? Are you trying to get a bounce off of a support line? Are you trying to break a resistance line right? All that sort of stuff comes into play here and that's what you see with aesc so, for example, uh a couple different ways that you can play. This is okay.

We see that there's a level of resistance right here sitting at about three bucks. If i got an hourly candle that opened and closed above that, i would pull the trigger and set my training. Stop loss. Look for a specific price target to get my money's worth out of this swing trade opportunity right, uh! Another way you can play this: it breaks this support line.

You get a bounce off of this level of uh support right here. At 269, the sustained level support gets broke bounces off this, this horizontal level of support at 269. You take that entry at 269 and you you ride back up to 301 and watch for that resistance, break, don't get it maybe take profits and rinse and repeat until it finally gets that hard move right. So there's different ways: you can play this out and uh.

That's what you're looking for for an entry point so identify the entry point come up with a plan, because if you feel the plan you plan to fail, then you want to look at a risk to reward ratio now. What would this mean if you were to take 10 trades right and assume that you made money on six of them? Well, if you had a one-to-one risk to reward ratio, meaning that, if you were playing with you, know a thousand dollars, you wanted to make a hundred dollars every single time. At least that's that's the absolute lowest point in which you're willing to take profits, but you're willing to lose a hundred dollars every single time. Well, this will come out profitable right, but not by very much right.

You'd make an overall six hundred dollars and you lose 400, which puts you net profitable, 200 bucks. Now, let's say that you change this a little bit right. You change your risk reward ratio to a three to one for every thousand dollars. You want to make at least 300 bucks and you're willing to risk a hundred dollars right.

That's gon na change the game. So if you make ten trades and you win on six of them, you would end up making six twelve eighteen hundred bucks right and you would lose three hundred which puts your net profitable thirteen hundred bucks. You could change this number to three. If you end up winning on three trades, you come out 900 ahead and if you lose on seven trades, you would come out.

You know uh what would be seven hundred dollars down. So you still come out two hundred dollars profitable, even though you lost on 7 out of 10 of your trades. Now, that's not a very good, a good ratio, but you get my point here right. This risk reward ratio is an important piece of the exit puzzle, but coming into the exit itself, you do want to figure out a specific point in which you're looking for right.

So maybe that's a level of resistance, maybe you're looking for a 269 to 295 break right here, maybe you're looking for uh other levels of resistance right, you can see. We've got one right here at about 324.. You can see that we've got another one right here with this uh, you know triple top setup. One two three, you know touch points here at 360., maybe you're looking for this triple top right here right, it's gon na be different for other people, but nonetheless you need to find what that means, for you have a plan have an exit plan, because if you Don't right, you're gon na get to a point in which you're up maybe 50 60 70 percent - you don't take profits and it pulls back and you left some profits on the table right.

It's okay to take profits because there's always going to be other places in the market. Formal and greed is real. I'm telling you, i know it. I know it.

I know it, but it's okay, to take that money. So just come up with a plan. Have an exit plan you're going to be sitting pretty dang well and please have a trailing, stop loss, don't be a bag holder. This really does change the game a lot right now.

So what do i mean by this? If i was to put a trillion? Stop loss on this particular play right. If i was to take an entry at you know, let's say 270, i would probably have my training stop-loss set for a couple cents lower than the lowest wick. That touched, which is about here 265., so i'd, probably set my 20 stop loss for about 260 right, because what if it has a false break down underneath the level of support and ends up bouncing back, you want to get yourself a little bit of wiggle room With that uh specific scenario, so i would probably set it for about 260. Since i see the 265 has been the lowest candle point right here and if i was to take an entry at about three dollars right playing it as a break momentum play - and i i know it ends up being a false breakout, i would probably set my Training stop-loss for somewhere around here right about 10 to 15 cents lower than my entry point, which would be about 290 to 285.

So you want to have some sort of 20 stop-loss sets that you can limit your losses and get on to maybe a better reentry or the next play that risks reward ratio right. You got to be willing to risk x amount of money to make x amount of money right, so just keep that in the back of your mind, when you are playing these swing trades, you won't come out profitable every single time. Most of the time you will right, but if you have that risk reward ratio, you're going to sit pretty dang well, then you want to execute right. Not all of these are going to be winners.

You got to keep that in the back of your mind. There are going to be losers in the puzzle. Uh you you're not going to make it happen every single time and that's where the risk to reward ratio. The rq baby comes into comes into play right.

You want to have a good, a good risk reward ratio and make sure that you are really capitalizing on your winners and limiting those losers, and then, lastly - and i think this is honestly - the most important thing is the aar. Now. This is something that i got from my father. He was in the military for a very long time and an aar is called an action after action review and essentially what this is.

Is you come back to what just happened right? What are the things that went? Well, what are the things that went bad? What can i learn and adapt to and from in the future right? So a personal story when i started trading, i i started way back and i'm not even way back. I would have been in 2020. I started in you know, october or so, and i made 10 trades made no money on basically anything. Maybe i made money on one or two of them.

I lost money on seven or eight of my trades. It was bad like i just didn't do well, but what i did is every single time that i lost. I took a step back and i thought to myself: what did i do wrong? What did i do right? What do i need to learn from this movie forward, so i can continue to make money, maybe for you or maybe for me you know it's emotionality. Maybe i just got too emotional.

I got too attached to my money. Maybe i got greedy and i didn't take profits off the table when i should have maybe i sold out too soon. Maybe i got nervous because i was down two three four percent right. Maybe i picked a bad play that could really be it that i did actually take a good setup right.

You just need to take a step back and learn from each individual uh experience that you have, because every single day in the market is an opportunity to learn, adapt and grow. If you don't feel uncomfortable, if you don't feel like you're learning, you are probably stagnating and not getting to the true potential that you could be as a person or as a trader right so make sure that every day in the market, you are learning from your Experiences: you're learning from your good trades learning from your bad trades right. You want to do this every single time and what, if you do, take that time to sit back and think about what went well, what went wrong you're going to continue to grow you're, going to continue to get better you're going to continue to make more money And that is what i've got for this video here today. So if you enjoyed it, please drop a like really that helps support the channel and consider subscribing.

Please see more content like this. Lastly, i've the description box down below for weeble. This is version 4 for the desktop great platform that allows you to start trading at 3 a.m. In the pre-market central standard time views money can get two free stocks with a 100 deposit, and i will receive free stock great reporter, chair, my friends and, if you're not interested.

That is totally fine. I just appreciate your support by taking the time to watch my videos. I also have a link to the merch store. If you want to check that out, it's called tradesgrillergang.com.

We got some cool hoodies t-shirts, mugs, masks uh. This is for me and max mart baby. Uh tree max mug, you know what it is: some stickers, not a dead cat, not a cat, never was a dead cat. You know what it is and then my personal discord as well.

So if you wan na, join that it's five dollars a month, we've got a great community of investors. We actually added something really cool here is an ai stock bot, which gives you the opportunity to check out some really cool things in prospect related to uh, where the heck is it related to you know different uh trading opportunities, so you've got bullseye options. You've got option sweeps insider trading block trades. Analyst upgrades important news, and this gives you the different commands that are available to you as well.

So if you're joining this is five bucks a month as i mentioned, and that is what i've got for you guys today. So if you uh, where am i going, that is what i've got for you guys today. Thank you for watching my friends, my family, my fellow guerrilla gang. Take it all easy and i'll catch you next.

One peace.