Hey: hey: hey, hey, hey! You already know what it is skull! Oh yeah, okay, chica, okay, chica. What is up? Everybody welcome to trace trades. We have technical analysis and different stocks in the stock market, as well as potential buy holders sell opinions on these. Given stocks, like your purpose, by saying that i'm not a financial advisor nor expert so take what i say: the grain of salt, let's get into the video today, my friends are looking at agtc, ticker symbol, agtc applied genetics technology corporation, and this is kind of going To be a two for one special, i'm going to talk about the company right, the fundamentals of the company.

You know upcoming news, catalyst, pipeline products, financial statements right and then the mean potatoes, which is the chart set up right. But i've got a couple other things that i want to talk about, specifically regarding conviction and investing, because there's a large difference between investing and trading and i'm going to use an example using this stock right as to what you should be looking for in an investment. So we'll get the chart set up right. We're looking at the one month chart as well as the one day one minute chart to give both a macroscopic and microscopic perspective of the overall price action.

I've got a couple. Different indicators pulled up right. I've got the rsi on the bottom here. That is the relative strength index.

Anything over 70 is overbought. Anything under 30 is oversold. This is 70. This is 30..

This gives you an idea of both bullish and bearish momentum on a stock, and then we got the 200 damages purple trend line and the 15-day ma, which is this blue trend line. The 200 dma is the exponential moving average. This is the price action based valuation trend line over a 200-day movie period, which gives us a macroscopic perspective of the overall price action, and then i've got the 15-day ma, which is the moving average. Some brokerage accounts call this the sma, the simple moving average they're.

One in the same, this is the price action based valuation trend line over a 15 day moving period, which gives us a microscopic perspective of price action. We usually side by side that we can predict upcoming, breakouts breakdowns, increasements of volatility, consolidation periods or decreasements in volatility. So we get the best bang for our buck, the best possible entry points and the most momentum for a stock. So we're looking at possible entry points exit points.

I'm gon na be holding the stock as a midterm to long-term trade. I think there's a lot of great things going on here with agtc. We've got quite a bit to talk about here, so let's get into the video first thing i want to start off with is why did i step into this company right? So we're going to tell you what these guys do and then i want to show you something: httc is a healthcare pharmaceutical, medical research and biotechnology medical research company, a blood genetic technology corporation is a clinical stage. Biotechnology company the company develops gene therapy products designed to manage the lives of patients with severe diseases and ophthalmology.

As of march 31, 2016, his product candidates included treatments for x-linked retinal, kisses over two forms of achromatopsia and x-linked retinas pigmentosa. As of march 31, 2016. The company was engaged in developing three discovery programs targeting three indications based on its adeno-associated virus vector technologies. Xlrss is an inherited retinal degenerative disease caused by mutations in the retinal cyst.

Gene achromatopsia is an inherited condition that is associated with visual acuity loss, extremely sensitivity resulting in daytime blindness and reduced or complete loss of color discrimination. Acrobatopsia is caused by mutations in any of several genes. This is huge mutations in any of several genes. The company is also developing alpha-1 anti-trypsin deficiency and what is interesting about this company? My friends, is this genetic uh mutation right so developing groundbreaking gene therapies for patients with rare diseases.

So if you look at the pipe their pipeline right, they've got a couple different things that they focus on here. They've got specifically ocular neurodegenerative and autology uh product, so ocular refers to eye products. We've got neurodegenerative, which is a neurological breakdown of the neuron within the body, different neurons in the body and then autology, focusing on hearing loss specifically what catches my interest is the ocular, so we've got different pipeline products that are, you know in different phases. We've got ind enabling phase one and two phase two to three and the next milestone here.

For a couple is clinical data clinical data ind filing ind filing you've got the xlrp, the achm, optogenetics dry amd and star guards right, uh neurodegenerative. This is what catches my eye specifically as well: we've got ftd and als so very interesting, stuff they're on ind following here: they're development, candidate and we've got ind uh filing on this non-syndromic hearing loss. So what catches my eye about this? My friends is ocular disorders. Right, whether it be the retina, whether it be the optic nerve, you could have neurological breakdowns or genetic mutations in which you can't actually heal right.

You can't make them go away forever, because they're genetic mutations right and what they're focusing on is gene therapies. Getting out of the exact genome sequencing that is causing these mutations to fix them at the source, which is monumental when you compare that to basically what bngo is doing, it's like a bngo in the in the uh in the eye sector right. So it's astronomical wow, b and j has been getting slapped, that's nasty, but nonetheless i think agtc has a lot of potential to be a bngo sort of runner and it's been getting beat down here on the charts. I know it's discouraging, but i'm not i'm not standing, i'm not moving, i'm not moving, and this is the lesson that i want to talk to you guys about.

This is the reason one of the reasons i got into this stock check this out. This is probably not what you want to see, but this is me this morning i have a condition called bilateral, anterior, uveitis and essentially, what this is is. It is a genetic mutation that causes random flare-ups in either my left eye or my right eye or both. At the same time, i've actually had both eyes at the same time with this issue, and you probably can't see it because this is a webcam, but you can see that my eye is really red right now.

Essentially, what i have is extreme light sensitivity. I did make a post about this on my uh on my youtube communities, page extreme light sensitivity. I've got really bad vision right now. So whenever this information is happening, i can't see anything.

My vision is terrible. Uh i've got some discomfort, some inflammation, which is causing that that bloodshotted, you know sort of thing - that's happening right here in my right eye right now, and if this is a genetic mutation right, this bilateral anterior uveitis um. What could be, what could be solving that issue instead of having to take these expensive, stupid, steroid eye drops these dilation eye drops right, um i could get if i could get a product like this, which would change my life forever right, that's game! Changing! That's a conviction, that's a conviction right! So when you buy into a company as an investment, there's a large difference from trading a company when you're trading a company you're looking to make a quick flip, you don't care about the company, you don't care about the fundamentals and i've traded before like i get It i get it there's opportunities to make money trading, i love swing trading, but investing is not the same. Investing you do not care about the day-to-day fluctuations.

You just don't you don't you. The day-to-day fluctuations, and especially the dips, are just an opportunity for you to increase your stake in the company when you buy one share of agtc. My friends, you are a partial owner in that company. You need to take pride in the companies that you are buying into.

You need to believe in what they're doing, not just for potential for growth, but true uh how's this going to help the world right. It's going to do good things. I personally think this is groundbreaking. I think that's huge, because it's it's personally affected my life right.

I i would love to never have to go another day with uh with this bilateral anterior uveitis, because it is annoying, it is so annoying and it's it's frustrating and and bng is another product like that. Like microvision is another product like that, i love what they're doing. I've got a lot of conviction in the company. I've got a lot, i believe in the product.

I believe that's going to be groundbreaking stuff. I think electric vehicles and uh green energy and uh. You know this this product with with agtc, i think bngo is gon na be life-changing. I like what zometica is doing right.

You didn't have true conviction in the company, because, if you do, if you're done, your due diligence right, you've looked into the financials the potential for growth, what they're doing why are they doing it right? How is it going to affect the world? How how does the market look for that specific product right? That is groundbreaking stuff, and that is, i think, a a real testament towards testing your true conviction in stock right, if you have a true game plan, the true gains in a stock like this is to don't care about the the day-to-day fluctuations and i'm not going To i just don't i just don't until the the fundamental basics of this company change, i'm going to keep holding, in fact, i'll keep buying i'll, keep, adding more and more and more and to add to that we're gon na get into some more numbers here. There's a lot of institutional owners of this company. We actually recently had another stake taken by jpmorgan chase filed on or reported. I should say on 19th of february they bought 84 000 shares, which was worth about point three: four million dollars: ownership of the company of a point; three, two: five percent.

On the 16th. We had four other companies buy into this, which is pretty solid, charles schwab, colony, new bean and square point uh. If we look at you know, fintel, they have a little different information here. They've got uh dimensional uh in in uh interwebs partners in their south partners, port holland.

So take that with a grain of salt right we don't know exactly what the true information is here, but what we do see is that that's 42.46 total institutional ownership of the company, which means 18.1 billion 18 billion, 18.1 million of the total shares outstanding, are being Held by institutional companies, this is significant for two reasons: a it means that there's big money, hedge funds and institutions that believe in the potential for growth. Here right, you want to follow where big money goes, because big money doesn't put their money into penny stocks. They don't think they're going to go up. They've done their due diligence.

They've got teams that do this stuff around the clock right. So that's one big reason, and the second is that it decreases the flow it decreases. The amount of shares available for trading for retail investors, a decrease in supply will cause an increase in demand which increases volatility. So that is a huge reason why? I think you see the stock move off of not a lot of volume and i really don't think it's gotten that much attention yet.

I still think there's an immense amount of upside here for agtc, so they've got all these different pipeline products right. I think. That's absolutely groundbreaking stuff. It's really going to change some lives.

It is in my personal opinion. The last thing i want to show you guys here is ortex. I'm going to show you guys agtc, any information that i think is relevant here on on ortex. So let me just pull this up here, really quick and what we can see is uh analysts.

So the the average target price is 15.50 uh six cents from five different analysts. They all give it a buy rating. The return. A return potential is 149 percent.

This is a one-year estimate, so they're, estimating it's gon na hit 15.56 percent in a year. I'll. Tell you what every single day of the week i will hold the stock for uh for a year to get 150 gain. That's monumental! That's that's life-changing stuff! In terms of short interest, nothing crazy, we've got 18.5 utilization, meaning that there is about uh, 72 or 82 percent of the total uh lendable short shares available for trading percentage of free float on loan pretty low as well days to cover pretty low anything over.

One is pretty considerate, uh i'd, say significant information, so not looking too bad here. Uh we've got different trading signals here. We've got uh sell according to ortex on the 17th of february, but we don't have any if you know updated information here. If we look at the the chart setup on the 17th, we're going to compare how that looks so essentially they were saying if you wanted to lock in profits, that would have been a good time to sell and lock in your profits.

I would anticipate sooner you're going to see a pretty solid, buy rating stepping into this, but i absolutely love this product and i think it's got a lot of solid potential. Last thing i want to touch on is their financial situation, their annual income right? If we look at their income statements, we're looking at the total revenue and they don't have any gross profit they're, not a profitable company right now, their their profits, their their total revenue uh year over year from 2017 and 2020. What is this looking like this previous year, not a lot of total revenue now? What is the case? What is the reason for this? My personal belief is they're really focusing on these pipeline products and not so much on releasing or commercializing old products. So they've got a lot of different stuff in the pipeline right now.

If you look at their website, uh just take a quick peek at other pipeline products. You can see. I think it was like seven in total one, two, three four, five, six, seven, eight different products in total, which takes a lot of time and research and if we take a peek, a quick peek at their their uh. Let's just take a peek here, their r d, their research and development costs.

That tells you the whole story: 35.78 million dollars up seven percent from the previous year right so they're, putting a lot of money into marketing and administrative expenses and research and development costs. So, essentially, what they're doing is they're trying to market their products, they're trying to get different people on board with the team they're trying to research and develop these products, so they can get they get get uh profitable down the road. That's a risk that you run with biopharmaceutical companies they're risky because typically their income statements, don't look great, as you can see here. They're, not a profitable company they've got no profit their revenue, not fantastic.

They were down from 2019 a pretty large chunk and they're. Pretty volatile right, it's not a lot of consistent consistency in terms of revenue. So that's what you're, looking at in terms of you know the income statement right here in terms of net income. It was negative.

They actually did not make money. This is, in my opinion, because of the the r d and the marketing administrative expenses that comes out to about 48 million, which would be pretty close to what you're seeing right here right, not operating income. You would uh, you would add this in interest income. They made a little bit of cash as well, so that comes out to about negative 45.85 million dollars, so not quite profitable.

Yet in fact, they're they're losing a little bit money year over year. They lost a little bit here um, but i anticipate you're gon na see them do some direct offerings. If you see a little more run-up honestly, i'm surprised if we just come take a quick peek here. I don't think they did one.

I'm surprised we haven't seen a direct offering yet i think that's something that you're going to see happen here and i wouldn't be scared. If you see a direct offering it's good, it's good for a long-term stock because a it gives you an opportunity to buy another stock for cheaper and b. It gives them cash to sit on to continue operations and work towards that end goal and the reason you have the conviction to buy into the stock so take that for what it is. That is what we've got here for some due diligence: the the basics of the company, the fundamentals, the companies have different institutional numbers, some different short numbers right.

The most recent news last thing. I suppose that i do want to show you is a a little bit of a presentation that they're gon na have going on here. So if we just come to their website and check out uh the investors tab, we can just take a peek at their uh. Their upcoming events and presentations, they had an event on monday that did not end up doing much as we had pretty bearish market.

However, we do have another presentation coming up tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see if that affects the price at all. I do believe that is at 3 pm uh eastern standard time, so you'll expect a pretty steady rise in price action. If that does go well, i don't think a lot of people know about it. So essentially, what you're looking for is something groundbreaking or some pr.

Some some press release some public relations that will help drive that price action. So that's the last thing. I want to talk about regards of news catalyst. So as it's sitting right now, we are a little bit of a downward channel uh.

I do think that we may have found it bottom here, but i'm not entirely sure yet. So we had this decent level of support. We ended up breaking that with a wide range candle bar, and then we consolidated we're now on a little bit of an upward moving channel setting some higher lows and higher highs. We always look for at least three touch points to signify respect the level of support or resistance.

We get that right here right, so we're coming up on a little bit of uh an intersection. I would anticipate sometime that in the pre-market or the next day, you're gon na see a pretty violent move, and i think this because if you look at the 15 i mean the 20ma. The 5929 are hooking away from each other, which typically indicates an increase in volatility to be expected right. So i'd expect some pretty nice movement if we get the volume to back it up right, and we do have that nice ascending level of support and decent level of resistance, squeezing down together in price action.

This typically indicates that uh there's some consolidation happening, which we do see took place here right. In fact, we can actually drop another level of resistance right here. If you want to really narrow things down right, you can see this is really starting to tighten up and when, when stocks tighten up like that, they're getting ready for hard hard moves, rsi is starting to wind up as well. You can see this down here.

It depth all the way down to 18 on the rsi, which is nasty, and it went back up to about 42.. I feel pretty confident the fact that this is the bottom uh, mostly because we have this engulfing candlestick pattern right here and that is typically a sign of a bottom out. So we that looks pretty solid. I don't think we're a drop, much lower than five dollars and three cents.

I do think that is a new basement so far here on uh agtc, and that was a pretty harsh retracement, i'm not gon na lie. We basically came back down all the way to previous lows in terms of this previous run up, but i don't think it is likely that it's gon na dip more than that uh. There is a price analyst, as i had mentioned, of about 15 average. I've seen it as high as 35 dollars for for the next year, so i think it's got some really solid potential.

My friends i'm going to continue to hold this. If you want to add to your position, i would say if it breaks beneath this ascending level of support, five dollars and three cents is a beautiful entry point. If not, you could ride momentum and buy when it breaks this decent level of resistance at about 570.. That should treat you well as well, so that is looking very solid, my friends a little bit bearish in nature right now.

I would expect some pretty pretty big volatility, since those two indicators are hooking away from each other, there's a little bit of a gap here. So it's a pretty bearish territory. We had a gnarly, normally sell-off. Nasdaq was down like three percent market open today, so this took a pretty pretty nasty hit along with many other stocks, but uh it did recover and consolidate pretty well towards the end of the day.

So that's what we're looking at if we change this over to the one day, one minute chart for any last minute confirmations. We have that nasty sell-off here in the pre-market, as you can see, pretty bad gap down, followed by a slow and steady climb back up. Get down to about 4.80 nice descending level of uh support so far here in the after hours, we had five dollars and 60 cents up about 3.5 percent, so not bad, not bad at all. I do still have my call options on this that i'm down right now, but these expire march 19th.

I do think there's still some potential upside here and i do think that it has some room to run, and that is what i have for the video today. If you enjoyed it, please drop a like if it does help support the channel and consider subscribing if you'd like to see more content like this. Lastly, i have to fill in the description box down below for weeble. This is version four for the desktop great platform that allows you to start training at 4m in the pre-market.

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