Guys i've got a very, very important question for you show me. The difference between these two pictures show me show me uh, show me the difference. What's the difference, i see nothing, absolutely freaking nothing. I wish i was joking, but this is actually a pretty comparable sort of situation.

Man you had a pretty freaking rocky day across the the market. Amc was down about 8.85 at the low point of the day. It was down like 12, 13, 14 and there's a lot of sort of back end things that are playing into this - that i kind of want to talk about i'll briefly, go over a couple different things, but first what is up everybody? I'm going to trade trades we're going to talk fast and don't skip class like the process by saying i'm gon na find advisor experts so to say the greatest salt, let's get into the video. So if you guys enjoy uh watching literally the market collapse, i don't think anybody does.

But you get my point you are kind of watching that happen right now, uh. I want to start off here with uh, what's actually happening within the broad market, because this is affecting the u.s stock market and ultimately amc stock, and you might not. You know think that it is because i've talked about this before amc's got, what's known as a negative beta, meaning that it typically does not react to general market conditions. But when you look at the spy right and the spy is down on the day at the low point, almost three percent - you have a literal freaking meltdown.

I mean that's. Ultimately, what this is a gap down about 1.7 in the pre market just continue to bleed throughout the day that's going to affect the broad scheme of things, because there are institutions that are in amc about 20 of that stock is owned by institutions and for liquidating Out of you know, major indexes out of their major holdings, that's going to affect the broad market ultimately, and i think that's what you actually watched happen here with amc. Is some of those big institutions start to pull out of their positions which could affect the overall stock price? But what's the reasoning right? Why are people doing this sort of thing? Well, unless you uh you live under a rock evergrand is sort of the big situation. That's taking place right now in china and there are actually other uh sort of entities within china that are having similar meltdowns in terms of real estate, but this is a pretty comparable situation.

What happened with the layman brothers? So, to put this very simply, what you're happening right now is a debt problem. Evergrande has major major debt issues and it does not look like they're going to pay them down right now. Where does this actually derive from? What does evergrand do ever grant deals with real estate they're? Actually, one of i would call the monopolies they're actually, if i remember correctly, about the second largest real estate entity within china, and they have a massive massive amount of liabilities uh. You can see this right here.

Every grand series template another 10 of monday after chinese regulars warned that 305 billion dollars in liabilities could lead to widespread losses in china's financial system if its debts were not stabilized. There's a couple of funny things that kind of take place here, and i read this on twitter. I think this is a good analogy to use right. Why is this a problem? Well, if ever grant cannot pay down its liabilities, its debts? In fact, it may not even be able to pay off some of the interest rates that they have on some of these bonds and notes that they've got planned out for the next couple of years.

If they can't pay those down, they have to end up liquidating their their their assets right, which would mean that they're selling properties. Now what happens right? To put this? Very simply, if you have something like, for example, evergrand who owns a good chunk of real estate within china and they're, starting to liquidate, think about this based off of supply and demand, what happens in a margin call right if there's a margin call you have a Major institution that's forced to pull out of a position that makes the position pull back right, that asset, that security is going to decrease in value because they own so much of the freaking uh demand in that stock and then there's this excess of supply. There's not enough people out there to pick up that uh that security or that asset in the case of evergrand that there was previously so in this situation, where ever grant controls a mass majority of real estate in china, if they can't pay off their liabilities, they Can't even afford the freaking interest rates on these liabilities that puts the chinese real estate market in a very similar situation to where the layman brothers was back in freaking. Now, why is that similar layman's fold is worth about 600 billion dollars of debt? They couldn't pay down 600 billion dollars of debt, and, if you look at and do the math behind this china evergrand situation, it comes out roughly to about 300 billion dollars.

As you can see right here, more than 305 billion dollars in liabilities could lead to widespread losses in china's financial system, but the difference here is the layman: brothers were spread out very wide. They were not a monopoly within the united states, truly controlled. A large portion of the assets in the homes that you see across the united states, but this is a little bit different of a situation where they're not spread within a million banks they're not trying to to necessarily hide all the things that they do. This is something that's kind of been a long time coming and you can see by looking at the overall stock price kind of form out and play its picture over the last uh last couple of weeks.

So i'm gon na pull this up here, really quick. I think it is on this one. You can see that since february of 2021, the stock has just rapidly been decreasing in price, all the way down to where it's sitting right now at two dollars and 54 cents with the high being 1686 since about january, or so so, it's been on a steady Decline, investors, institutional investors, retail investors in china are very aware of the situation what's been playing out here. This has been a long time ticking time bomb man and it's finally starting to make that pivot point now.

How does this actually relate to the us economy right? How does this affect the spy amc, all the us stocks right? Well, there are certain banks that have lended out capital to this specific institution, right evergreen from the united states, that's where some of the margin comes from right and i posted this out on twitter. This is actually a pretty interesting concept, but the the debt, the over leveraging, the inflationary sort of response that you're seeing in the stock market. I mean you look at the spy and it literally looks like a lightning bolt straight straight into the sky over the last freaking 12 months, despite the fact that the us economy is coming off of. To be blunt with you like a minor recession, i mean coleman really crushed a lot of things.

The amount of workers that are working in the united states right now pulled back drastically. A lot of people were on welfare. The feds printed, a bunch of money like 20 of the nation's capital, was printed off for the last 12 months, 18 months right, despite all that, you have this major sort of freaking inflationary run-up and what does this derive from same sort of situation? You're watching play out in china major amounts of debt, major amounts of margin that are being played in the market, essentially money that should not exist right. It's two dollars for every one dollar.

All those same sort of things are happening right now in the us stock market, similar to what you're seeing happen right now in china. Now, how does that come back to amc? How can i tie this into the entire u.s stock market? How can i make this worth your time right? This is something that the apes within the amc community for the last nine freaking months have been talking about. Like no other we've been saying this forever, you look at the overall daddy. Look at the reverse repo market.

See that it's freaking hitting all-time highs every single day, the banks and the feds going back and forth back and forth between these this cash and the bonds right, it's a massive amount of money going back and forth. You look at margin. Debt margin, debt in the united states is absolutely atrocious. I mean it's disgusting, you can see these sort of levels continuing to increase over and over and over and over 800 billion dollars was the last time i checked back in like august i mean it's absolutely insane.

You look at inflation. Inflation in august was also about five percent year-over-year, which is the same levels. You saw back in 2008 right all these different statistics and data that are being played out in front of your very eyes right. These are things that we've been talking about.

This is the actual downturn of some of the economic problems coming to fruition. It's basically materializing in front of your eyes on the stock chart right and that played into this is what i'm going to wrap this into amc with it affected amc right. This is my hypothesis. I have no claims to back this up other than the data that i've already laid out for you.

80 of this stock, roughly is owned by the apes. 20 is owned by institutions. Now what happens if institutions are expecting a massive downturn in any sort of stock? Right, they're gon na start pulling their chips off the table. They're gon na secure that cash right, because they're not trying to freaking uh hold bags for a freaking, 5 10 15 percent market correction and if 20 of amc is owned by institutions, do not be surprised when the 13 f's the 13 fox trots, which are essentially Just transaction history, whether a big institution is going long and selling that long position don't be surprised.

If you see institutions pulled out of amc, because if they are in a massive index fund, if they are just holding this as a part of their portfolio, maybe one percent two percent of their portfolio to help manage their customers or clients right. That would affect it. That absolutely 100 would affect it. That's the only thing that i can personally think of in terms of why a stock with a negative beta would be having this sort of downturn along with the entire market.

I do have a theory, and i want to show you a couple different things before i get into that, because i don't think the downside is done yet just based on the data, but i do have a theory that i think is going to make you guys Happy it is just a theory, of course right that i can't prove anything until it does come to fruition if it does, but that's what i've got here so far, so we're gon na get into the options flow. This is probably the most important thing. Ortix data hasn't really changed a whole lot, 18.5 percent, uh, 18.57 percent short interest of free float is what you're looking at right. Now, 91 utilization utilization has actually gone up a little bit, which is a good thing to see right.

That's going to get that cost of bar starting to ramp up. If it continues on that trader, you need to see that continuation in order to get to that spot. But it's a start right. That's something to watch, but more, interestingly, is the flow right.

Now. The flow is actually pretty dang accurate. I actually tweeted this out on sunday, showing you the flow of options coming into the spy into close on sunday. Everything was put right.

There are people out there, big institutions that knew this situation was coming as a friday right before all this freaking started hitting the fan man, i mean it's, it's a way to take a stab at future price action. And what do you see here in terms of uh future price action? As of now, it's bearish there's just no way fans or bots. It just is it's currently 79 percent of premium is uh is puts, and 55 of this is put volume right. So it's still bearish, it just is and to be blunt with you, if you look at this and you only looked at amc stock on the charts right now, not considering anything else, it's a falling knife - it just is there's there's more downside here now there is The potential that you get a bounce out of this demand zone, which i mapped out in yesterday's video right - it could get a bounce back up.

I think you could see a momentary one. It already kind of got one right here. You can see it bounced off that demand zone bounced off the demand zone bounced off the demand zone, but it's just not having enough strength right. There is still selling pressure coming from shorts out there.

Perhaps institutions that got out of their positions because they're not diamond ball or ordering this thing like the apes, are right, but there is still potential downside to this and don't be surprised if you see this pop down somewhere here back into the 30s, i'm not going To you guys right things looked a lot different. Five days ago, things looked a hell of a lot different five days ago, and the market started getting shaky uh, not coincidentally, at about the same time right you look about uh. You look at the chart. The spy right here over the last five days, it's been bumpy you're, seeing a lot of freaking a lot of chop and that's rolling over into amc, and on top of that, you already have all the freaking stupid tricks out there that these big hedge funds play To try and manipulate the way that uh people view this stock and it's just a perfect storm man.

You've got this evergreen thing happening right now, which is absolutely freaking, steamrolling the chinese market and there's still more downsides to me right now. What you're, really waiting on to get a finalized sort of uh thesis on that situation is whether or not ever grant could pay down their uh their interest on their their liabilities? You know if they can, maybe that pushes the freaking can down the road a little bit they're doing a little bit of can kicking, but it doesn't look promising man you're, hoping for a bailout in that sort of situation for china that ultimately comes down to china. Right, what is their uh their sort of federal entity, going to do to push that uh to take care of that situation? Who knows right? I can't speak for china, but that's what you're looking for regardless, i think the spy i think, amc in the short term. As of now it's a lot more downside.

I i just do it looks. It looks pretty rocky, it looks pretty tough. The flow is bearish. You've got really freaking bearish fundamental news, that's starting to seep its way into not just china, but also the us market, and that's how it can affect the u.s market.

It's just based on some of the cash that's been sent over to freaking china right to help them out with these sort of things: the real estate market evergrand. There there's just a lot of money, that's getting flown around back and forth right! This is the best way that i can put it, and this is how i'm going to kind of close this video anytime. You see two bodies who are exchanging money back and forth, for example, the reverse repurchase agreement market right, the feds and uh the banks, they'll switch back and forth one trillion plus dollars like it's. Nothing like it's just freaking, chump change and that sort of thing happens on a daily basis.

Anytime, you see that much money just getting moved around right. That's a red flag! That's a red flag! That tells you that somebody out there has more money than they should. Whether it's printed, whether it's dirty, whether it's uh, it's fraudulent, whether it's corrupt, there's a lot of crazy stuff - that's happening right now, and it is all coming to fruition. These are things that that apes have been called stupid for for months for months and months and months and months and months and you're watching it happen now, it's materializing and don't let that affect your conviction and thesis behind amc.

The price in this i've said this a million times to me is psychological. If you think the stock is worth x, minus y and it's currently or x, not x, you think it's worth less than it's trading now you think it's worthless, rich greenfield. You get my point here right, you think it's worth more than trading right now and it's trading for cheaper you get to buy for cheaper, that's ultimate! It comes down to right if you missed your opportunity for a dip buy. If you bought up here in the 50s 60s 70s, you want to average down it's an opportunity right, that's, ultimately what it comes down to, and i do still think once the institutions have liquidated other positions that negative beta is going to come into effect with amc Stock and it's going to hold up stronger than the rest of the generalized market, because 80 of this is held by freaking apes out there, the people who are diamond nut in this thing and uh, i think, there's more upside.

I really do not in the short term the microscopic i really do think just based on the data based on the setup based on the spy based on the overall market. You just got to be patient. That's ultimately what it is. I don't want to you guys.

It just it looks freaking rough, it looks rough and that doesn't change the game it doesn't, and that has to be up here. That's a decision that you personally have to make for yourself right, be responsible i'll. You guys are all adults, you guys are all a bunch of silly chickens. Just like me, you know what to do with your money right just make sure you have a plan.

That's all that i ask for and that's what i've got for this video, so blah blah blah. You know the whole spiel drop a like consider, subscribing whatever you want to do. My friends catch the next one, much lovely taps and peace.